Economic growth and water: an integrated approach helps

1. Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia former IPCC WG2 vicechair

2. ”The Squeeze” Human growth 20/80 dilemma Ecosystems 60 % loss dilemma Climate 550/450/350 dilemma Surprise 99/1 dilemma

4. Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.

5. Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.

8. Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes

9. Increased coastal flooding and storms

11. 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress

12. Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe

13. Substantial global impact on major crops

14. Long-term prospect of sea level rise+4°

15. Risks in key sectors Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand Climate change Urban space Energy Infrastructure transport Governance Water Food Land use Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro) Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums

17. The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substancehttp://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://

18. Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories Main trajectories WGBU 2007 (modified)

20. will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies

21. increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution

25. Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events

27. Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation

28. Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security