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Q2 2016 Fixed-Income Outlook: Chart Highlights
1. 10 Macroeconomic Forecasts for 2016
Fixed-Income Outlook: Chart Highlights
Managing Through a Persistent State
Of Heightened Volatility
Second Quarter 2016
Guggenheim Investments
2. Table of Contents
2Guggenheim Partners
Bank Loans, CLOs, and Non-Agency RMBS Have Offered a Yield Advantage with Limited Duration Risk 3
A Stabilized Oil Market Underpins Our Positive Credit Outlook 4
High-Yield Bonds Rebounded After a Terrible Start to 2016 5
Bank Loans: Lower Quality Outperformed Following Mid-Q1 Rebound 6
Mezzanine CLO Spreads Tightened Despite Rising Loan Defaults 7
Improving Borrower Credit Underscores Our Constructive View on the Non-Agency RMBS Market 8
Shrinking Dealer Balance Sheets Provide Technical Support to the CMBS Market 9
Strong Retail Demand for Municipal Bonds Pulls Yields Lower 10
The Fed Has Stepped in as Holder of Agency MBS as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Step Out 11
10-Year Treasury Yields Tower Over 10-Year Global Sovereign Bonds 12
Guggenheimâs Investment Process 13
The Guggenheim Investments (âGuggenheimâ) quarterly Fixed-Income Outlook presents the relative-value
conclusions of our 160+ member fixed-income investment team and illuminates the uniqueness of our investment
process. This chart book presents selected highlights from the Second Quarter 2016 Fixed-Income Outlook.
This material is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. This material should not be considered research nor is the
material intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. This material contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authorsâ opinions are subject to change
without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy.
3. Bank Loans, CLOs, and Non-Agency RMBS Have Offered a Yield
Advantage with Limited Duration Risk*
Source: Credit Suisse, Barclays, Citi, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2016. *Although these asset classes have shown lower duration risk (due to their adjustable rates), they are subject to additional risks. Please see the end of the
presentation for risk disclosure. Duration risk is a measure of an asset's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Representative Indexes: Bank loans: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index; High Yield Corporate Bonds: Credit Suisse High-Yield
Corporate Bond Index; AA Corporate Bonds: Barclays Investment-Grade Corporate Bond index, AA subset; Agency MBS: Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index (Agency Bond subset); CLO AA and CLO 2.0 BB data provided by Citi Research, CMBS 2.0
AA: Barclays CMBS 2.0 Index (AA subset), Treasurys: Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index (Treasurys subset), Non-Agency RMBS: Based on BAML and Guggenheim Trading Desk Indicative Levels
§ï§âŻ About 90 percent of the
Barclays U.S. Aggregate
Index (the Agg) is in low-
yielding Treasurys,
Agencies and investment-
grade corporates; more
compelling opportunities
can be found in sectors
that are under-represented
in the benchmark.
§ï§âŻ Structured credit,
particularly collateralized
loan obligations and bank
loans, have offered higher
yields and less rate risk
than similarly rated
corporates.
§ï§âŻ Our positive outlook for
the U.S. economy, a
cautious Federal Reserve
(Fed) and stabilizing oil
prices support our
constructive view of these
asset classes.
3Guggenheim Partners
The Core Conundrum: About 90
percent of the Barclays Agg is
comprised of low-yielding
Treasurys, Agencies, and
investment-grade corporate bonds.
Compelling
opportunities can
be found in
sectors that are
under-represented
in the Barclays
Agg.
4. A Stabilized Oil Market Underpins Our Positive Credit Outlook
Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg, Haver, EIA. Data as of 3.31.2016.
§ï§âŻ Near-term price volatility
is likely, and another
negative shock is possible,
but oil prices are
beginning to stabilize as
supply/demand comes
into balance.
§ï§âŻ Our model indicates that
oil prices will average
$40â45 per barrel for the
remainder of 2016.
§ï§âŻ Declining oil prices had
weighed heavily on
corporate credit, but our
current outlook supports a
generally positive credit
performance for
investment-grade and
high-yield issuers in the
energy sector.
4Guggenheim Partners
After two years
of steady
declines, oil has
stabilized. Our
model calls for
oil to average
$40-45 for the
rest of 2016.
5. High-Yield Bonds Rebounded After a Terrible Start to 2016
Source: Credit Suisse, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 4.18.2016.
§ï§âŻ Risk aversion at the start
of 2016 led to a 5 percent
loss in the high-yield bond
market in the first few
weeks of the year.
§ï§âŻ High-yield bonds were
headed for their worst start
on record, but rising oil
prices, weaker dollar, and
dovish commentary by the
Fed drove a sentiment
turnaround in the quarter.
§ï§âŻ These trends continued
into the second quarter. A
stabilizing oil market
should help energy bonds
to perform well over the
next 12â24 months.
§ï§âŻ Positive net fund flows and
weak new issue activity
should also support prices.
5Guggenheim Partners
High-yield spreads peaked at 914 bps on
Feb. 11, 2016; oil prices began to rebound
after dovish Yellen Senate testimony;
spreads finished the quarter at 753 bps
6. Bank Loans: Lower Quality Outperformed Following Mid-Q1 Rebound
Source: Credit Suisse, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2016.
§ï§âŻ Significant risk-aversion in
the first part of the first
quarter was followed by a
dramatic shift that saw the
sharpest rebound in the
weakest credits.
§ï§âŻ CCC-loans and distressed
loans (those rated CC and
below or in default)
recorded their best
monthly gain in March
since January 2012 and
January 2014,
respectively, after 10
months of
underperformance relative
to higher-rated corporates.
§ï§âŻ With strong earnings
growth this cycle and a
decent if unspectacular
economic backdrop, we
maintain a constructive
view on the loan market.
6Guggenheim Partners
Best monthly
performance since
January 2014.
7. Mezzanine CLO Spreads Tightened Despite Rising Loan Defaults
Source: JP Morgan, S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2016.
§ï§âŻ Q1 spread widening and
compression across
mezzanine collateralized
loan obligation (CLO)
tranches occurred without
changes in underlying
credit fundamentals.
§ï§âŻ While loan default rates
remain below average, the
slowly rising volume of
defaults highlights
deteriorating credit
conditions.
§ï§âŻ Spreads on post-crisis
CLOs ended at the middle
of their 52-week ranges;
pre-crisis CLOs remain at
the widest end of their
ranges.
§ï§âŻ As mezzanine CLO
spreads tighten, we see
potential for relatively
attractive risk-adjusted
returns in senior CLO
tranches.
7Guggenheim Partners
8. Improving Borrower Credit Underscores Our Constructive View on the
Non-Agency RMBS Market
Source: Amherst-Pierpont Securities, JP Morgan, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2016.
§ï§âŻ The 30 percent recovery in
national home prices since
2012 has boosted the
share of non-Agency
RMBS loans with positive
home equity to 86 percent,
compared to a dismal 30
percent in the housing
crisis.
§ï§âŻ Non-Agency RMBS
collateral is shifting toward
re-performing borrowersâ
previously delinquent
borrowers who have
improved personal
finances.
§ï§âŻ Credit curing, improved
economic conditions, and
home price appreciation
have helped increase the
proportion of re-performing
mortgage borrowers in the
non-Agency RMBS
market, underscoring our
constructive view on the
mortgage sector.
8Guggenheim Partners
Default and prepayment
characteristics are
improving for this
growing segment of
the non-Agency MBS
market.
9. Shrinking Dealer Holdings of CMBS Provide Technical Market Support
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2016, calculated as a four-week moving average.
§ï§âŻ The CMBS market rallied
dramatically in March and
early April, following a
swoon in Jan. and Feb.
§ï§âŻ Heightened market
volatility, however, is not
conducive to a properly
functioning market, and as
volatility persisted,
mortgage origination and
new issue CMBS supply
almost ground to a halt.
§ï§âŻ Primary dealer net
positions of private label
CMBS dropped to $6.5
billion, the lowest level
since the New York Fed
began tracking these data
in 2013.
§ï§âŻ Low dealer inventories,
combined with declining
new issuance, should
provide technical support
to the market.
9Guggenheim Partners
At $6.5b, dealer
balances of private
label CMBS are at the
lowest level in the
history of this data set.
10. Strong Retail Demand for Municipal Bonds Pulls Yields Lower
Source: Lipper, Barclays, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2016.
§ï§âŻ Investor demand for
municipal bonds remains
strong despite high-profile
problem situations in
Puerto Rico, Atlantic City,
and the Chicago Public
School system.
§ï§âŻ Flows into municipal bond
funds have been strong,
with $9.3 billion coming to
market in the first quarter
of 2016.
§ï§âŻ Demand from individual
investors has a meaningful
impact on the municipal
bond market given that
individuals and mutual
funds hold 70 percent of
the total market
outstanding.
§ï§âŻ Tighter spreads warrant a
look at higher-yielding
revenue bonds vs. general
obligation bonds.
10Guggenheim Partners
11. The Fed Has Stepped in as Holder of Agency MBS as Fannie Mae,
Freddie Mac Step Out
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data as of 9.30.2015.
§ï§âŻ One of the consequences of
the financial crisis has been a
stark shift in the sources of
demand for Agency MBS.
§ï§âŻ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
(together, the government-
sponsored enterprises, or
GSEs) were placed into
conservancy, which required
them to shrink, and ultimately
eliminate, their retained
portfolios.
§ï§âŻ The reduction in their market
demand has been more than
offset by the Fedâs own
balance sheet expansion,
which continues to offer
strong support to the market.
§ï§âŻ This support, combined with
the demand from foreign
investors seeking higher
sovereign yields, should
contain any significant
spread widening.
11Guggenheim Partners
The Federal Reserve has
become by far the biggest
holder of Agency MBS.
12. 10-Year Treasury Yields Tower Over 10-Year Global Sovereign Bonds
Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg. Data as of 3.31.16.
§ï§âŻ The U.S. Treasury yield
curve is materially higher
than the curves of other
developed countries,
reflecting differences in
monetary policy, growth,
and inflation expectations.
§ï§âŻ The U.S. 10-year Treasury
yields 1.77 percent,
compared to -0.03 percent
for Japan, 0.15 percent for
Germany, and 0.49
percent for France.
§ï§âŻ Even if the Federal
Reserve were to resume
its tightening campaign,
U.S. fixed income will
remain relatively attractive
given the extremely low
levels of global bond
yields.
12Guggenheim Partners
Even at this low level,
U.S. yields exceed those
of foreign sovereign debt.
13. Guggenheimâs Investment Process
§ï§âŻ Our quarterly Fixed-Income Outlook shares insights from the
leaders of our 160+ member fixed-income investment team and
illuminates the uniqueness of our investment management
structure and process.
§ï§âŻ The Guggenheim process features separate groups that
specialize in the different functions of investment management:
Our Macroeconomic Research Team identifies and provides
outlooks on key economic themes; our Sector Teams conduct
fundamental analysis to make security recommendations; our
Portfolio Construction Group determines investment strategy,
portfolio positioning, and sector weightings based on
macroeconomic and relative-value sector analysis; and our
Portfolio Managers implement and optimize investment
strategies, and ensure that portfolios comply with client
guidelines. The groups work autonomously, but collaborate
within our investment process.
§ï§âŻ Intended to avoid cognitive biases, snap judgments, and other
decision-making pitfalls, this structure also provides a foundation
for disciplined, systematic, and repeatable investment results
that does not rely on one key person or group.
§ï§âŻ The people and process are the same for institutional accounts
and mutual funds. Our pursuit of compelling risk-adjusted return
opportunities typically results in asset allocations that differ
significantly from broadly followed benchmarks.
13Guggenheim Partners
15. 15Guggenheim Partners
About Guggenheim Investments
Guggenheim Investments is the global asset management and investment advisory division of Guggenheim
Partners, with $199 billion1 in total assets across fixed income, equity, and alternative strategies. We focus on
the return and risk needs of insurance companies, corporate and public pension funds, sovereign wealth funds,
endowments and foundations, consultants, wealth managers, and high-net-worth investors. Our 275+
investment professionals perform rigorous research to understand market trends and identify undervalued
opportunities in areas that are often complex and underfollowed. This approach to investment management has
enabled us to deliver innovative strategies providing diversification opportunities and attractive long-term results.
About Guggenheim Partners
Guggenheim Partners is a global investment and advisory firm with more than $240 billion2 in assets under
management. Across our three primary businesses of investment management, investment banking, and
insurance services, we have a track record of delivering results through innovative solutions. With 2,500
professionals based in more than 25 offices around the world, our commitment is to advance the strategic
interests of our clients and to deliver long-term results with excellence and integrity. We invite you to learn
more about our expertise and values by visiting GuggenheimPartners.com and following us on Twitter at
twitter.com/guggenheimptnrs.
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