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Cruise The Crop Markets 2010 Day 1
1.
Grain Price Outlook
and Market Strategies Cruise The Crop Markets by John Roach January 17 - 24, 2009 Day 1 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
2.
Roach Ag Marketing,
Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 jroach@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
3.
Grain prices set
their peak of a new price plateau in 2008. The new price plateau will remain but prices will search out the bottom of their range again this fall, if crops are good. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
4.
Why will the
new price plateau remain? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
5.
Population Growth Rates
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
6.
Global Meat beef
+ pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
7.
Dollar’s value has
been driving trade for the last 2 years Dollar Index © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
8.
Index funds increasingly
important beginning 4 years ago © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
9.
Five-year moving average
of world production values. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
10.
GSCI™ Components and
Dollar Weights (%) (12-18-2009) Energy 69.53 Industrial Metals 8.21 Precious Metals 3.30 Agriculture 14.71; Wheat 3.16; Red Wheat 0.63; Corn 3.40 Soybeans 2.39; Cotton 1.15; Sugar 2.82 Coffee 0.78; Cocoa 0.38 ; Livestock 4.26 Live Cattle 2.44; Feeder Cattle 0.46; Lean Hogs 1.36 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
11.
What role did
fundamentals play in 2009 grain prices? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
12.
#1 - World
Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons = 34% of entire U.S. Crop © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
13.
#2 - March
Intentions March Intentions © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
14.
Final March ©
Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
15.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
16.
#3- On May
17 only 62% of the U.S. corn crop was planted with Illinois at 20%. Beans were 25% planted with Illinois at 1% © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
17.
Dollar back in
decline from Feb 09 to June 09 Dollar Index Bears’ 1st Target © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
18.
19.
China building soybean
reserves
20.
Fear of rampant
inflation
21.
Speculative money again
flowed into grain markets as traders chased beginning bull market moves© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
22.
23.
U.S. Dollar quit
getting cheaper
24.
There was no
inflation….yet
25.
China quit buying
26.
U.S. farmers planted
more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
27.
28.
U.S. Dollar resumed
its decline and inflation fear grew
29.
China became an
aggressive buyer of beans
30.
Speculative fever re-ignited
in the face of shrinking production, increasing bean demand estimates© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
31.
What are the
Fundamentals Now? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
32.
Aug forecast +31.5
MMT Nov & Dec +39.4 MMT Jan +42.58 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
33.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
34.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
35.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
36.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
37.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
38.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
39.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
40.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
41.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
42.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
43.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
44.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
45.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
46.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
47.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
48.
Bean Acreage ©
Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
49.
50.
China demand numbers
increasing
51.
2010 ending stocks
no longer tight, but we must raise big crops in 2010
52.
Prices should peak
prior to normal March June selling season if no U.S. crop problem develops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
53.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
54.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
55.
FSU-12 Exports 2007-8
– 27.47 MMT 2008-9 – 54.71 MMT 2009-10 – 49.50 MMT U.S. Corn Exports 2007-8 – 69.89 MMT 2008-9 – 51.17 MMT 2009-10 – 55.79 MMT U.S. Wheat Exports 2007-8 – 34.36 MMT 2008-9 – 27.64 MMT 2009-10 – 22.45 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
56.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
57.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
58.
USDA 2009 World
Corn Yields 12/10/09 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
59.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
60.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
61.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
62.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
63.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
64.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
65.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
66.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
67.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
68.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
69.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
70.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
71.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
72.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
73.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
74.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
75.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
76.
77.
U.S. ending stocks
likely to increase due to smaller exports and feed offset by + ethanol
78.
Livestock producers losing
less money
79.
We still need
a big corn crop every year and should have seasonal strength in 2010© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
80.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
81.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
82.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
83.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
84.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
85.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
86.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
87.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
88.
© Roach Ag
Marketing, Ltd.
89.
90.
Prices increasingly dominated
by former Soviet Union production
91.
Index fund ownership
distorting price higher and basis wider
92.
2010 winter acreage
37.1 mil acres down 14.3% from 2009© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
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