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BUENAVENTURA

April 4, 2013                                                    LALI MERINO: LMerino@inteligogroup.com




ATTRACTIVE       UPSIDE POTENTIAL DESPITE                              T AR G E T P R I C E : $ 3 2 . 2 3
NEW OUTLOOK FOR YANACOCHA                                                    R AT I N G : BU Y +
Investment Thesis

•   We are updating our BVN valuation model
                                                             Market Indicators
    setting a new 12-month fundamental target
                                                             Shares outstanding (000)           254,442
    price of $32.23, down from $38.95. The revision
                                                             ADR Ratio                              1
    to the target reflects the new production profile
                                                             Dividend yield 2013e                 2.4%
    for Yanacocha, our new assumptions for the
    unit’s life of mine, an update of our metal prices       52-week range                  $24.30 - $42.25
    vector and BVN’s 2013 guidance for operations.           90-day average volume (US$000)      178.2
    Nevertheless, despite these changes, we believe          Float                               67.1%
    BVN still offers investors an attractive upside          Market Cap. (US$m)                  6,205
    potential. In this sense, our rating for BVN             Price to Book Value                  1.6x
    stands at BUY+.
•   Newmont’s guidance for Yanacocha and the                 Rating Parameters
    disappointing performance of gold price in IQ13          Current Price                             $24.30
    dragged down BVN’s shares. Yanacocha will cut            Target price                              $32.23
    its production by 25.7% this year as the decision        Yield 12 months                           -38.5%
    to postpone the Conga project in Cajamarca has
                                                             Upside potential                           32.6%
    led to revisit the unit’s output profile. However,
                                                             Rating                                      Buy+
    we believe investors have overreacted to this
                                                             Stock Ticker                                BVN
    new information.
                                                             Sector rating                            Outperform
•   Although Yanacocha’s gold contribution to BVN
    will be lower, we expect the company to boost its
    exploration efforts at current units in order to
    expand the reserves & resources base. In the
    case of silver, the production profile shows an                  BVN shares' price sensitivity ($)
    upward trend as Uchucchacua will benefit from                            Gold $/oz price vector
    the Rio Seco Manganese plant. Furthermore, the
                                                                      -20%       -10%       0%         10%     20%
    expansion projects at El Brocal and Cerro Verde
    will increase base metals production in the          W    7.4%   28.19       30.81     33.42       36.03   38.65
    coming years. Finally, it will be important to       A    7.9%   27.59       30.20     32.81       35.42   38.03
    monitor the developments around projects             C    8.4%   27.02       29.63     32.23       34.84   37.44
    currently not included in our valuation such as
                                                         C    8.9%   26.49       29.08     31.68       34.28   36.88
    Chucapaca       and Tambomayo.         Regarding
    Chucapaca, BVN is committed to perform                    9.4%   25.97       28.57     31.16       33.75   36.35
    additional studies to improve its economic
    returns.
Valuation Changes
•   We have changed the production profile for
    Yanacocha and assumed a life of mine until
    depletion of reserves only.
•   We have reduced our gold price vector.
•   We have cut the contribution from El Brocal, to
    exclude exploration projects, as well as from
    Cerro Verde given the 2013 production guidance
    from BVN.



                                                                                                        INTELIGO SAB
Over the last months, BVN’s shares have been                                       YTD Performance
severely affected by news from Yanacocha. In 110                       Newmont releases
                                                                         2013 outlook
January, Newmont provided the operating guidance
for this unit and the results were below market 100
expectations, triggering a sell-off in these securities. In
addition, the disappointing performance of gold in          90
IQ13 contributed to BVN’s decline. Despite the new
outlook for Yanacocha, we believe the market has            80
overreacted and severely chastised BVN’s shares. At
current market prices, the stock offers investors an        70

attractive upside potential based on gold price                                         Gold     BVN

perspectives, encouraging outlook for silver production     60




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2-Apr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    12-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 19-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             26-Feb



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 12-Mar

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19-Mar

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       26-Mar
                                                                                                                                                                                1-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                                           8-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                                                      15-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   22-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 29-Jan




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5-Mar
at Uchucchacua and expansion projects at El Brocal
and Cerro Verde. Furthermore, following BVN’s growth
                                                             Source: Bloomberg
history, backed by the start up of four mines in the last
years, and exploration potential, we expect BVN to continue delivering value in the foreseeable future.


Gold Price Performance

•   Gold price performance has been sluggish so far this year. Investors demand has lacked strength
    and ETFs gold holdings fell after posting records in December 2012. Even though the FED
    announced a new round of asset purchases in an open-ended mechanism last year, mixed
    comments from the FED’s officials in February regarding the possibility of reducing the size of the
    QE3 or even halting the overall program sooner-than-anticipated exacerbated the decline of gold.

                                                  ETFs Gold holdings                                                                                                                                           Precious metals performance
      000 troy ounces

     90,000                                                                                                                                                             2,000                                                                                                                                                                   50.00

     85,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     45.00
                                                                                                                                                                        1,800
     80,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                40.00
     75,000                                                                                                                                                             1,600
     70,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     35.00
                                                                                                                                                                        1,400
     65,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     30.00
     60,000
                                                                                                                                                                        1,200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25.00
     55,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Gold ($/oz)                                          Silver ($/oz)

     50,000                                                                                                                                                             1,000                                                                                                                                                                   20.00
                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                   May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May-12
                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-13
                       Oct-10




                                                  Apr-11




                                                                             Oct-11




                                                                                                        Apr-12




                                                                                                                                   Oct-12




                                                                                                                                                              Apr-13
              Aug-10


                                Dec-10




                                                           Jun-11
                                                                    Aug-11


                                                                                      Dec-11




                                                                                                                 Jun-12
                                                                                                                          Aug-12


                                                                                                                                            Dec-12
                                         Feb-11




                                                                                               Feb-12




                                                                                                                                                     Feb-13




      Source: Bloomberg                                                                                                                                                Source: Bloomberg


•   Another reason behind gold’s weak performance is that the global economic activity is showing signs
    of reacceleration, boosting investors risk appetite and benefiting equity markets. In the US,
    encouraging labor data led the unemployment rate back to December 2008 levels in February.
    Furthermore, in China, manufacturing indicators remained within the expansionary area, while credit
    growth started to accelerate. In this scenario of a mild pick-up in activity, inflation remained anchored,
    reducing the attractiveness of inflation-hedging assets such as gold.

•   Despite these recent developments, we believe gold’s fundamentals remain intact. Even in a
    scenario when the FED halts its QE program, the size of the FED’s balance sheet is in itself a sign of
    a loose monetary policy. This coupled with the somewhat weak economic scenario in the Euro area,
    which allows the ECB to maintain its current monetary policy, and the recent changes in the Bank of
    Japan’s leadership also supports the scenario for gold. Furthermore, the FED’s commitment to
    maintain rates at low levels as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5% and inflation
    stands below 2.5% supports our view about the central bank’s stance, at least for 2013.

•   In this scenario and as US activity accelerates its growth pace -with more momentum in IIH13-
    inflation expectations should begin to increase pushing real yields down and backing investors’


                                                                                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 INTELIGO SAB
demand for gold holdings. On a longer term basis, when growth reaches a sustainable path and
    unemployment is no longer an issue of concern for FED officials, monetary policy tightening is
    expected and appetite for gold should recede.

•   Another factor that has been gaining importance in recent years is the demand from central banks.
    As stated by the World Gold Council in its last report, central banks have continued to increase their
    gold holdings as well as Yen, in order to reduce the share of Dollars and Euros in reserves.

•   Furthermore, the characteristic of gold as a safe-haven asset has been reaffirmed with the recent
    developments around Cyprus. As European leaders worked on the conditions for a bailout, gold
    managed to break the $1,600 level after weeks of poor performance. Although the risks around the
    Euro area crisis are lower than before, the events around Cyprus recalled that fiscal issues in the
    region, especially in Italy and Spain, are still pending.

•   All in all, given the YTD performance of gold, we have adjusted downwards our price vector. Average
    gold prices for 2013 and 2014 now stand at $/oz 1,700 and $/oz 1,689 down from $1,775 and $1,750,
    respectively.

                 Precious Metals
                 Average Prices     2010       2011         2012          2013e          2014e       2015e
                 Gold $/oz          1,227     1,573        1,669          1,700           1,689       1,550
                 Silver $/oz        20.24     35.32        31.16          32.00           31.00       28.50



•   As in the case of gold, silver also disappointed in the first months of the year. Nevertheless, we
    continue to expect prices to recover from current levels. In this scenario, we are setting our 2013 and
    2014 average silver forecasts at $/oz 32.00 and $/oz.31.00, respectively. Finally, it is worth to
    mention that we also made slight adjustments to our base metals vector. These include a lower
    average copper price for 2013 and zinc for 2014 in comparison with our previous estimates.

                 Base Metals
                 Average Prices     2010       2011         2012          2013e          2014e       2015e
                 Copper $/lb         3.42      4.00          3.61           3.69              3.50     3.34
                 Zinc $/Mt          2,159     2,193        1,947          2,155           2,250       2,315
                 Lead $/Mt          2,147     2,397        2,062          2,280           2,348       2,380
                 Tin $/Mt          20,408    25,958       21,077         23,780         24,000       24,065



Operations

Gold

•   BVN’s      equity      production,    excluding                              Gold Output (000 oz)
    Yanacocha, averaged 460,000 oz Au in the           1,400
    last years. On the other hand, Yanacocha’s
    output has gradually lost ground. In 2009,         1,200
    Yanacocha produced 2.1 million oz Au, with         1,000
    898K oz attributable to BVN. In 2013,                  800
    according to the company’s guidance, output
    should stand at 1.0 million oz, with only 437K         600
    oz attributable to BVN. Despite the gloomy             400
    outlook for this unit, we believe that BVN will        200
    increase its exploration efforts in order to
    sustain production from direct operations as              0
                                                                       2011            2012          2013e        2014e
    well as revisit the Chucapaca project (not
    included in our target price). In terms of                           Gold Direct Production       Yanacocha
                                                          Source: BVN, Inteligo's estimates


                                                      3
                                                                                                              INTELIGO SAB
growing strategy, BVN has delivered four mines over the last years: La Zanja (2010), Tantahuatay
       (2011), Mallay (2012)1 and Breapampa (2012). In this regard, we foresee that the company will
       maintain this strategy along with the aforementioned expansion of current operations. Below, we
       describe the situation of the company’s major gold operating assets.

       1. Orcopampa (BVN 100%)

       o Orcopampa is the main gold producer among BVN’s direct operations. With an average annual
         production of 288K oz Au, including contribution from old tailings, this unit will be in the spotlight
         this year as the company will continue to invest in exploration in order to boost reserves and
         increase the unit’s life of mine. The recent reserves update has already shown higher yearend
         reserves in 2012.

       o Looking back into production, lower grades hit output at this unit in the last years. This scenario
         coupled with the presence of some strikes affected gold production in 2012, reaching 260K oz (-
         8.7%). For 2013, BVN’s guidance points to higher production, up to around 280K oz (+7.4%).

                                                            Orcopampa*
                                                            (000 oz Au)
                                  400


                                  350


                                  300


                                  250


                                  200


                                  150
                                               2010         2011       2012   2013e
                                  *Includes old tailings.
                                  Source: BVN




       2. La Zanja (BVN 53.06%)

       o La Zanja is composed of two deposits: San Pedro Sur and Pampa Verde. Production at the San
         Pedro Sur deposit began in September 2010 for a total of 44K oz Au, from which 23K oz were
         attributable to BVN. The guidance for this unit was set at 100K oz; nevertheless, in 2011, output
         surpassed expectations due to higher-than-anticipated grades. In 2012, production stood at 112K
         oz and in the coming years we expect output to stabilize at the original guidance. Silver output
         from this unit was also important, reaching 388K oz Ag in 2012.

       3. Tantahuatay (BVN 40.04%)

       o The Tantahuatay operation started production in 2011 and is composed of two deposits:
         Tantahuatay 2 and Cienaga Norte. Operations began at Tantahuatay 2 and the company is
         currently working on the construction of the Cienaga Norte project as part of the unit’s expansion.
         In 2012, gold output stood at 141K oz and for 2013 BVN anticipates producing around 125K oz.
         Regarding silver, total production at Tantahuatay reached 919K oz in 2012.

       4. Breapampa (BVN 100%)

       o In November 2012, Breapampa began operations and accounted for 9K oz Au of BVN’s
         production last year. The initial project’s outline set a target of around 60K oz Au. For valuation
         purposes we are only accounting reserves from the Parccaorcoo prospect, which leads to a two-
         year life of mine. Nevertheless, BVN could eventually consider the treatment of the resources
         from the Senccata and Pucagallo porspects in order to expand operations.
1
    Producer of silver, lead and zinc

                                                                   4
                                                                                                 INTELIGO SAB
5. Yanacocha (BVN 43.65%)

    o Yanacocha has been in the spotlight since the unveiling of protests around the Conga project.
      Furthermore, the decision of Newmont to suspend the Conga project until 2017 and prioritize the
      construction of the reservoirs to support water availability for Cajamarca has led the company to
      review its production profile for coming years.

    o Considering the reserves base only, Yanacocha’s life of mine reaches 6.0 years. Given the
      negative mood around the Yanacocha operation in Cajamarca, we are including only reserves into
      our valuation model as this stands as more conservative approach. In this scenario, we expect to
      see production at around 1.0m oz Au in 2013, while gradually declining to 0.8m oz Au in 2016.
      These figures contrast with historical production levels, which stood at 1.4m oz on average in the
      last three years.

    o The decline in Yanacocha’s output should have an impact on the company’s operating
      performance, which in turn will be reflected in a lower contribution to BVN’s consolidated net
      earnings. According to our estimates and our new gold price vector, Yanacocha’s contribution to
      BVN result should stand at $205m in 2013. In this context, in terms of valuation, Yanacocha now
      accounts for $8.04 of our target price.

                                                 Yanacocha
                                                 (000 oz Au)
                            1,550

                            1,350

                            1,150

                             950

                             750

                             550
                                       2010      2011          2012     2013e

                             Source: BVN



    o As for the future of Yanacocha, BVN is looking forward to reactivate the Chaquicocha (gold) pit by
      expanding the unit and exploring underground opportunities in high grade areas. In this context,
      exploration works at the site will be performed in 2013 in order to identify additional reserves
      potential. It is worth to highlight that we are not including this guidance on our financial model until
      reserves are effectively increased. Moreover, on its annual report, BVN announced the
      construction of a pilot leaching facility to treat sulfides. Nevertheless, this project is in early stage
      and the results are yet to be seen.

Silver

•   As opposed to gold, silver equity production has shown a favorable performance, increasing from
    15.5m oz in 2010 to 18.3m oz in 2012, guided mainly by the higher contribution from Uchucchacua,
    Julcani, La Zanja, Tantahuatay and, recently, Mallay. For the coming years, the production profile is
    encouraging, mainly due to the higher recovery rates at Uchucchacua.




                                                        5
                                                                                                INTELIGO SAB
Silver Output (million oz)
                           25.0

                           20.0

                           15.0

                           10.0

                            5.0

                            0.0
                                         2011          2012        2013e     2014e
                          Source: BVN, Inteligo's estimates


    1. Uchucchacua (BVN 100%)

    o Uchucchacua is BVN’s main silver producer, accounting for 61.5% of total equity production in
      2012. Last year silver output climbed 11.6% on the back of higher ore treated and recovery rates.
      Looking forward, we foresee further improvements in recovery rates, supported by the start of
      operations of the Rio Seco manganese sulfate plant this year. The purpose of this plant is to
      enhance the quality of the lead/silver concentrates from Uchucchacua by reducing the
      manganese content.

                                                      Uchucchacua
                                                     (million oz Ag)
                          14.0

                          12.0

                          10.0

                           8.0

                           6.0

                           4.0
                                      2010            2011         2012      2013e

                           Source: BVN



    2. Julcani (BVN 100%)

    o Julcani was the first of BVN’s operations when the company was founded in 1953. As a silver
      producer, Julcani accounts for 13.3% of total BVN’s equity production in 2012, and has seen its
      output expand from 1.8m oz in 2009 to 2.4m oz Ag in 2012. In addition, given the increase in
      reserves, BVN expanded the unit’s plant from 400tpd to 500tpd, adding to the favorable outlook
      for the company’s silver output.

    3. Mallay (BVN 100%)

    o This unit began operations in May 2012, with a total silver output of 683K oz. For 2013, we
      foresee production at around 1.2m oz Ag, explaining part of the increase in total equity output.

Base metals

•   El Brocal and Cerro Verde account for most of BVN’s equity zinc and copper production. In both
    operations, expansion projects are in progress and are expected to boost base metals production in
    coming years.



                                                              6
                                                                                         INTELIGO SAB
1. El Brocal (BVN 53.76%)

o El Brocal is a zinc, lead and copper                            El Brocal fine ores (000 MT)
  producing company with two defined                  120
  deposits: Tajo Norte (zinc – lead) and
                                                      100
  Marcapunta Norte (copper). Last year, in
  addition to base metal concentrates, El              80
  Brocal produced 13K MT of silver
                                                       60
  concentrates from stockpiles.
                                                       40
o As mentioned above, El Brocal is in the
                                                      20
  process of expanding its concentrator
  capacity to 18,000tpd by IIIQ13. In fact, in         0
  2012, El Brocal reached a capacity of                         2011              2012     2013e 2014e
  11,235tpd and according to our estimates,                                  Lead Zinc Copper
  the company will be working at a 14,400tpd       Source: El Brocal, Inteligo's estimates
  rate on average this year. Following the
  project’s completion this year and the original guidance from the company, zinc and lead output
  should benefit the most from the expansion while copper production is expected to remain around
  current levels.

o In addition to the concentrator expansion, El Brocal has two projects: San Gregorio and
  Marcapunta Oeste. In 2012, El Brocal invested heavily in exploration works at San Gregorio
  ($11.3m); nevertheless, drilling works at this moment are in standby as the Vicco community
  cancelled the exploration permits amid disagreements inside the community. We expect works to
  resume in the mid-term. In the case of Marcapunta Oeste, there have not been major
  announcements; nonetheless, BVN is studying methods for the treatment of copper ores with
  arsenic content. These studies and the development of technology will also benefit the potential of
  the Tantahuatay operation as a similar content can be found in certain areas currently not
  included in our valuation. Given that these projects are still in exploration phase, we consider that
  their exclusion from our financial model stands as a more conservative approach and provides a
  better assessment of the operation’s value.

o Regarding total capital expenditures at El Brocal, we have increased our 2013 estimate to $91.5m
  given the recent increase in the expansion project’s budget from $254.4m to $305.1m. The
  revision to budget reflects higher-than-expected ground movement works as well as higher
  machinery costs. All in all, taking into account BVN’s guidance on El Brocal for 2013, the capex
  adjustment, our slight revision to the base metal price vector and our decision to exclude the San
  Gregorio and Marcapunta Oeste in situ values, El Brocal now accounts for $3.11 of BVN’s
  target, which entails a PEN 33.35 target for El Brocal C shares.

2. Cerro Verde (BVN 19.58%)

o In December 2012, Cerro Verde received
                                                        Cerro Verde Copper Output (million lb)*
  the approval of the Environmental Impact
  Assessment for the operation expansion. 1,200
  This project will increase the company’s 1,050
  concentrator capacity from 120,000tpd to       900
  360,000tpd, with a total budget of $4,400
                                                 750
  million and 2016 as the completion date.
  Construction works should begin this year      600
  given that permits have already been           450
  received. Considering that an increase in      300
  the volume of ore treated will have an
                                                 150
  impact on grades, the expansion will
  ultimately boost copper production by 600m       0
                                                        2011       2012        2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
  lb and molybdenum by 15m lb when
  compared to a non-expansion scenario.        *Cathodes equivalent
                                               Source: Cerro Verde, Inteligo's estimates
  According to Freeport, after the expansion,
  copper output should reach 1,100m or an equivalent of 500K MT per year.

                                                  7
                                                                                            INTELIGO SAB
o In our strategy report (January 2013), we assumed that Cerro Verde’s output will recover this year
      given that last year’s performance was affected by heavy rains in Arequipa and lower SXEW
      copper grades. Nonetheless, we are changing our assumptions on the production profile following
      BVN’s guidance. According to the company, copper output should reach approximately 260K MT,
      lower than 2012 figures. In addition, we do not foresee a major improvement in output in the 2014-
      2015 period as the company is directing its efforts towards the expansion project. In this scenario,
      we have adjusted downwards our production profile for Cerro Verde, with an average copper
      production (cathodes equivalent) of 585m lb from 2013 to 2015. From there on, the expansion
      should take place and we foresee that the full benefits will be tangible in 2016. In addition, given
      the guidance provided for the company, we have increased the 2013 capital expenditure budget to
      $1,200m. Please note that in terms of the company’s net result, we are no longer including the
      disbursements for the wastewater treatment plant as part of non-operating expenses given that
      they will be included as capex.

    o Taking into account the new production profile, the downward revision to the average copper price
      for 2013 and the higher-than-expected 2013 capex budget, we are cutting our Cerro Verde
      contribution to BVN’s target to $9.38. In terms of our Cerro Verde C shares valuation, the
      new target price stands at $34.81, down from $40.86. Although we are assuming that the
      benefits of the expansion will be tangible by 2016, a sooner-than-anticipated completion date or
      ramp up ahead of expectations stand as the main upside risk to our valuation.


BVN’s Projects

•   In the previous section, we mentioned the Rio Seco processing plant as one of the projects that is
    due this year. The plant will benefit the lead-silver concentrates from Uchucchacua, by increasing
    silver recovery. According to the schedule provided by the company, construction should be
    completed by May with a total capex of $90m. In addition, the expansion of the concentrator plant
    at El Brocal should be ready by June 2013, while the Cerro Verde expansion by 2016.

•   Besides the aforementioned, BVN has additional exploration projects which are not currently included
    in our valuation model. Furthermore, as stated in our strategy report, the risks behind the Conga
    project back our decision to exclude it from our target price:

    o Conga: Conga is a gold/copper deposit with a total of 12.6m oz Au and 3,300m lb Cu in reserves
      (5.5m oz Au and 1,400m lb Cu attributable to BVN). Following the review of the EIA by
      international experts, in June 2012, Newmont Mining announced its intention to postpone the
      Conga project and instead focus on the construction of the water reservoirs. The construction of
      the reservoirs is moving forward; nevertheless, the risks around the project’s execution remain as
      the regional government of Cajamarca has consistently revealed its opposition to the project. In
      fact, on its 2012 annual report, Newmont Mining stressed that the development will depend on the
      project’s ability to generate acceptable returns as well as getting local support. In the case Conga
      does not move forward, Newmont will consider reallocating capital to other projects in Nevada,
      Australia, Indonesia and Ghana.

    o Chucapaca (BVN 49%, Gold Fields 51%): Located in Moquegua, Chucapaca is a gold/copper
      deposit with 6.0m oz Au in total resources. In November 2012, a first draft of the Feasibility Study
      concluded that the project’s design (open pit operation of 30,000 tpd) demanded an investment
      with no acceptable returns. As a result, BVN and Gold Fields are committed to perform additional
      studies in order to redesign the project (underground/ combination of underground and open pit)
      and review capital costs. Moreover, additional exploration in the area will be performed. In this
      sense, new guidance on the project is expected by the end of the year.

    o Tambomayo (Au/Ag) and Trapiche (Cu): Both projects are in advanced exploration stage and
      drilling works are being performed. In Tambomayo, BVN is evaluating a 1,000tpd flotation plant;
      nevertheless, we expect further guidance and definition before adding the project to our valuation.




                                                     8
                                                                                            INTELIGO SAB
Target Price Determination
                                                                            Target Price Composition ($32.23)
•   We have determined our BVN target price using
    a DCF model. We apply a NAV multiple of 1.5x                  BVN (precious metal operations)   El Brocal     Cerro Verde

    to BVN’s precious metal operations including
    Yanacocha and add the contribution from El                             29%
    Brocal and Cerro Verde, which are valued
    separately.

•   According to our analysis, we set a 12-month
    fundamental target price of $32.23 and a                                                                     61%
    BUY+ rating for BVN shares. At current market                          10%
    prices, our valuation entails an upside potential of
    32.6%.
                                                               Source: Inteligo's estimates




Comparables Analysis

•   On the back of a comparable analysis, BVN P/E ratios stand significantly below the industry’s
    average, signaling that the company is relatively undervalued. As stated in our investment thesis,
    BVN’s shares have suffered from an overreaction to news from Yanacocha and gold price
    movements. In this sense, as our fundamental analysis suggests, there is an interesting upside
    potential investors can capture.

                                                    P/E            P/E               EV/EBITDA      EV/EBITDA
               Company             Country
                                                   12m            2013e                 12m           2013e
         BVN                         Peru          9.1               8.5                      9.9      7.3
         Yamana Gold               Canada          21.8             13.1                      8.9      6.8
         Goldcorp                  Canada          16.5             16.0                  10.7         8.2
         Barrick Gold              Canada          7.2               6.6                      6.7      5.1
         Kinross Gold Corp         Canada          9.1              10.3                      6.0      4.3
         Newmont Mining               US           10.2              9.7                      7.4      6.0
         Newcrest Mining           Australia       18.2             19.7                  11.8         10.5
         Average                                   13.2             12.0                      8.8      6.9
         Source: Bloomberg, Inteligo's estimates



Risk to our valuation

•   Volatility in commodity markets: Although fundamentals in precious metal markets remain, the
    possibility that prices fell short of our expectations is a downside risk to our valuation. In this sense, it
    will be important to monitor the FED’s monetary policy stance as changes in the committee’s view
    could push gold price further down.

•   Social conflicts: Despite the fact that Conga is not in our base case scenario, the construction of the
    water reservoirs could trigger additional disruptions in the area, adding volatility to BVN shares.
    Overall, the government’s stance towards social conflicts will guide market agents’ sentiment towards
    the mining sector.

•   Projects not included in our valuation: We will monitor further developments around the
    Chucapaca project as its execution should help boost gold production in coming years. In addition,
    the definition of the Tambomayo and Trapiche projects stands as an upside bias to our valuation.



                                                           9
                                                                                                                INTELIGO SAB
Buenaventura: Financial and Value Indicators

                               Current Price: $24.30
                               Target Price: $32.23
                               Rating: BUY+

                                                                                                                                             Income Statement (US$m)
                                               2012 Revenues Breakdown                                                                                                   2011      2012     2013e     2014e
                                                                                                                                             Revenues                  1,556.6   1,563.5   1,798.7   1,804.7
                                          Gold          Silver         Copper                Zinc/Lead
                                                                                                                                             Gross Profit                844.5     620.3     829.7     878.6
                                                                                                                                             Operating Expenses           86.8     117.4     117.7     126.8
                                                                                                                                             EBIT                        757.7     502.9     712.0     751.9
                                                                                                                                             EBITDA                      854.1     626.0     848.1     918.3
                                                                                                                                             Net Income                  858.9     684.7     732.9     723.3
                                                                                                                                             EPS                          3.38      2.69      2.88      2.84
                                                                                                                                             DPS                          0.56      0.60      0.58      0.57

                                                                                                                                             Growth and Margins
                                                                                                                                                                         2011      2012     2013e     2014e
                                                                                                                                             Revenues Growth            41.0%      0.4%     15.0%      0.3%
                 Source: BVN
                                                                                                                                             EBIT Growth                79.8%    -33.6%     41.6%      5.6%
                                                                                                                                             EBITDA Growth              72.1%    -26.7%     35.5%      8.3%
                                                                                                                                             Net Income Growth          30.0%    -20.3%      7.0%     -1.3%
                                                                                                                                             Gross Margin               54.2%     39.7%     46.1%     48.7%
                                              Revenues ($ million)                                                                           Operating Margin           48.7%     32.2%     39.6%     41.7%
               1,900                                                                                                                         EBITDA Margin              54.9%     40.0%     47.2%     50.9%
                                                                                                                                             Net Margin                 55.2%     43.8%     40.7%     40.1%
               1,700
                                                                                                                                             Equity / Assets            87.0%     86.4%     86.2%     87.6%
               1,500
                                                                                                                                             Balance Sheet (US$m)
               1,300
                                                                                                                                                                         2011      2012     2013e     2014e
               1,100                                                                                                                         Cash                        470.8     186.7     221.3     443.6
                                                                                                                                             Assets                    3,953.5   4,588.7   4,939.1   5,198.0
                 900                                                                                                                         Financial Debt              106.1     179.3     230.6     203.6
                 700                                                                                                                         Liabilities                 513.1     624.3     681.0     644.9
                                 2010              2011               2012           2013e               2014e                               Equity                    3,440.5   3,964.4   4,258.1   4,553.1
       Source: BVN, Inteligo's estimates
                                                                                                                                             Free Cash Flow (US$m)
                                                                                                                                                                         2011      2012     2013e     2014e
                                                                                                                                             EBITDA                      854.1     626.0     848.1     918.3
                                          BVN 12-month performance                                                                           CAPEX                      -317.8    -442.9    -388.9    -201.5
                                                                                                                                             Taxes                      -232.9    -168.1    -229.8    -242.6
              45.00                                                                                                2,000
                                                                                                                   1,800                     Working Capital Change       39.4     -26.7     -33.1     -10.1
              40.00                                                                                                1,600                     Free Cash Flow              342.7     -11.7     196.3     464.1
                                                                                                                           Volume (US$000)




                                                                                                                   1,400
Price (US$)




              35.00                                                                                                1,200
                                                                                                                   1,000                     Value Indicators
              30.00                                                                                                800                                                   2011      2012     2013e     2014e
                                                                                                                   600
              25.00                                                                                                400
                                                                                                                                             P/E                          7.2x      9.1x      8.5x      8.6x
                                                                                                                   200                       EV/EBITDA                    7.3x      9.9x      7.3x      6.7x
              20.00                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                             P/BV                         1.8x      1.6x      1.5x      1.4x
                                                                         Nov-12
                                          Jul-12
                                 May-12




                                                                                                          Mar-13
                      Apr-12




                                                                                                Feb-13
                                                    Aug-12


                                                             Sep-12




                                                                                    Dec-12




                                                                                                                                             P/Sales                      4.0x      4.0x      3.4x      3.4x
                                                                                                                                             ROA                        21.7%     14.9%     14.8%     13.9%
                                                     Volume                       Price
       Source: Economática                                                                                                                   ROE                        25.0%     17.3%     17.2%     15.9%




                                                                                                                                                       10
                                                                                                                                                                                             INTELIGO SAB
El Brocal: Financial and Value Indicators

                         Current Price: PEN 30.30
                         Target Price: PEN 33.35
                         Rating: HOLD



                                                                                                                                           Income Statement (US$m)
                                                  El Brocal's Margins
                                                                                                                                                                     2011      2012    2013e    2014e
        60%
                                                                                                                                           Revenues                  264.4     268.5    338.7    413.6
        50%                                                                                                                                Gross Profit              148.4      84.4    132.1    207.2
        40%                                                                                                                                Operating Expenses         37.9      46.0     38.8     42.6
                                                                                                                                           EBIT                      110.4      38.4     93.4    164.6
        30%
                                                                                                                                           EBITDA                    123.3      65.5    122.5    199.1
        20%                                                                                                                                Net Income                 77.9      24.5     61.1    109.7
        10%                                                                                                                                EPS                        0.72      0.22     0.56     1.01
                                                                                                                                           DPS                        0.33      0.29     0.05     0.17
              0%
                                 2011                    2012                 2013e                     2014e
                                                                                                                                           Growth and Margins
                               Operating Margin                   EBITDA margin                    Net Margin
                                                                                                                                                                      2011      2012    2013e   2014e
  Source: El Brocal, Inteligo's estimates
                                                                                                                                           Revenues Growth           20.6%      1.5%    26.1%   22.1%
                                                                                                                                           EBIT Growth                8.3%    -65.2%   143.3%   76.3%
                                                                                                                                           EBITDA Growth             13.1%    -46.8%    86.9%   62.5%
                                             El Brocal Earnings ($million)
                                                                                                                                           Net Income Growth          8.7%    -68.6%   149.9%   79.4%
                                                                                                                                           Gross Margin              56.1%     31.4%    39.0%   50.1%
              250
                                                                                                                                           Operating Margin          41.8%     14.3%    27.6%   39.8%
              200                                                                                                                          EBITDA Margin             46.6%     24.4%    36.2%   48.1%
                                                                                                                                           Net Margin                29.5%      9.1%    18.1%   26.5%
              150                                                                                                                          Equity / Assets           84.9%     68.3%    65.0%   70.7%

              100                                                                                                                          Balance Sheet (US$m)
                                                                                                                                                                     2011      2012    2013e    2014e
               50
                                                                                                                                           Cash                       81.1      23.4     36.2     60.3
                 0                                                                                                                         Assets                    461.5     561.0    675.6    749.5
                  2011                                 2012                         2013e                          2014e                   Financial Debt              0.0      60.3    111.6     94.6
                                                       Gross Result            Net Result                                                  Liabilities                69.8     177.7    236.6    219.6
              Source: El Brocal, Inteligo's estimates                                                                                      Equity                    391.6     383.3    439.0    530.0

                                                                                                                                           Free Cash Flow (US$m)
                                                                                                                                                                     2011      2012    2013e    2014e
                                                                                                                                           EBITDA                    123.3      65.5    122.5    199.1
                                            El Brocal C 12-month performance                                                               CAPEX                     -64.0    -113.3    -91.5    -42.3
              55.00                                                                                                450                     Taxes                     -33.1     -14.3    -29.8    -52.9
              50.00                                                                                                400                     Working Capital Change     43.3     -11.6     -9.5    -18.3
                                                                                                                   350
                                                                                                                                           Free Cash Flow             69.5     -73.7     -8.2     85.5
                                                                                                                         Volume (US$000)




              45.00
                                                                                                                   300
Price (PEN)




              40.00                                                                                                250
              35.00                                                                                                200                     Value Indicators
              30.00
                                                                                                                   150                                                2011     2012    2013e    2014e
                                                                                                                   100
              25.00                                                                                                                        P/E                        17.1x    54.6x    21.8x    12.2x
                                                                                                                   50
              20.00                                                                                                0                       EV/EBITDA                  10.5x    19.8x    10.6x     6.5x
                      Apr-12




                                                         Aug-12


                                                                  Sep-12


                                                                           Nov-12


                                                                                      Dec-12
                                              Jul-12
                                   May-12




                                                                                               Feb-13


                                                                                                          Mar-13




                                                                                                                                           P/BV                        3.2x     3.3x     2.9x     2.4x
                                                                                                                                           P/Sales                     4.8x     4.7x     3.7x     3.0x
                                                         Volume                     Price                                                  ROA                       16.9%     4.4%     9.0%    14.6%
Source: Economática
                                                                                                                                           ROE                       19.9%     6.4%    13.9%    20.7%




                                                                                                                                                     11
                                                                                                                                                                                         INTELIGO SAB
Cerro Verde: Financial and Value Indicators

                           Current Price: $31.00
                           Target Price: $34.81
                           Rating: BUY

                                                                                                                                                  Income Statement (US$m)
                                                                                                                                                                              2011      2012     2013e      2014e
                                                     Revenues ($ million)                                                                         Revenues                  2,520.1   2,127.0   2,119.4    2,082.6
              4,500                                                                                                                               Gross Profit              1,695.4   1,325.5   1,283.6    1,203.1
              4,000                                                                                                                               Operating Expenses           83.6      78.7      74.8       71.7
              3,500                                                                                                                               EBIT                      1,611.7   1,246.8   1,208.8    1,131.4
              3,000                                                                                                                               EBITDA                    1,695.8   1,342.7   1,344.6    1,347.1
                                                                                                                                                  Net Income                1,078.4     772.1     779.6      751.2
              2,500
                                                                                                                                                  EPS                          3.08      2.21      2.23       2.15
              2,000
                                                                                                                                                  DPS                          0.00      0.00      0.00       0.00
              1,500
              1,000
                                                                                                                                                  Growth and Margins
               500                                                                                                                                                            2011      2012     2013e      2014e
                  0                                                                                                                               Revenues Growth             6.4%    -15.6%     -0.4%      -1.7%
                               2010         2011                 2012        2013e        2014e             2015e       2016e
                                                                                                                                                  EBIT Growth                -2.1%    -22.6%     -3.0%      -6.4%
Source: Cerro Verde, Inteligo's estimates                                                                                                         EBITDA Growth              -2.2%    -20.8%      0.1%       0.2%
                                                                                                                                                  Net Income Growth           0.4%    -28.4%      1.0%      -3.6%
                                                                                                                                                  Gross Margin               67.3%     62.3%     60.6%      57.8%
                                   Cerro Verde Earnings ($million)                                                                                Operating Margin           64.0%     58.6%     57.0%      54.3%
1,800                                                                                                                                             EBITDA Margin              67.3%     63.1%     63.4%      64.7%
1,600                                                                                                                                             Net Margin                 42.8%     36.3%     36.8%      36.1%
1,400                                                                                                                                             Equity / Assets            83.8%     85.3%     87.6%      89.1%
1,200
1,000                                                                                                                                             Balance Sheet (US$m)
        800                                                                                                                                                                   2011      2012     2013e      2014e
        600                                                                                                                                       Cash                      1,383.6   1,427.5   1,154.1    1,102.3
        400                                                                                                                                       Assets                    3,196.6   4,042.8   4,828.7    5,587.8
        200                                                                                                                                       Financial Debt                0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
               0                                                                                                                                  Liabilities                 519.0     593.1     599.3      607.3
                2011                                  2012                        2013e                                 2014e                     Equity                    2,677.6   3,449.7   4,229.4    4,980.6
                                                     Gross Result               Net Result
Source: Cerro Verde, Inteligo's estimates
                                                                                                                                                  Free Cash Flow (US$m)
                                                                                                                                                                              2011      2012      2013e      2014e
                                                                                                                                                  EBITDA                    1,695.8   1,342.7    1,344.6    1,347.1
                                         Cerro Verde 12-month performance
                                                                                                                                                  CAPEX                      -195.2    -600.9   -1,197.0   -1,035.7
                                                                                                                                                  Taxes                      -483.5    -434.5     -418.6     -368.2
              45.00                                                                                                     3,000
                                                                                                                                                  Working Capital Change      -16.5      11.2        7.4       13.5
              40.00                                                                                                     2,500                     Free Cash Flow            1,000.5     318.5     -263.5      -43.3
                                                                                                                                Volume (US$000)




                                                                                                                        2,000
Price (US$)




              35.00
                                                                                                                        1,500                     Value Indicators
              30.00
                                                                                                                        1,000
                                                                                                                                                                              2011      2012     2013e      2014e
              25.00
                                                                                                                                                  P/E                         10.1x     14.1x     13.9x      14.4x
                                                                                                                        500
                                                                                                                                                  EV/EBITDA                    5.6x      7.0x      7.0x       7.0x
              20.00                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                  P/BV                         4.1x      3.1x      2.6x       2.2x
                                                                               Nov-12
                                            Jul-12
                                May-12
                      Apr-12




                                                                                                   Feb-13


                                                                                                               Mar-13
                                                        Aug-12


                                                                    Sep-12




                                                                                          Dec-12




                                                                                                                                                  P/Sales                      4.3x      5.1x      5.1x       5.2x
                                                                                                                                                  ROA                        33.7%     19.1%     16.1%      13.4%
                                                         Volume                         Price
       Source: Economática                                                                                                                        ROE                        40.3%     22.4%     18.4%      15.1%




                                                                                                                                                          12
                                                                                                                                                                                                 INTELIGO SAB
Analyst Certification

The Research Analyst that prepared this report hereby certifies that the views expressed in it accurately reflect his/her
views about the subject companies and their securities. The Analyst also certifies that he/she has not been, is not,
and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation for expressing the specific view in this report.


General

The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Inteligo SAB does not
warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to Inteligo SAB and the analyst’s
involvement with the issuer. Inteligo SAB accepts no liability, of any type, for any direct or indirect losses arising from
the use of the document or its contents. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
release and are subject to changes without further notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The
market prices of securities or instruments or the results of investments could fluctuate against the interests of
investors. Investors should be aware that they could even face a loss on their investment. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and the ratings
herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as
recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. Therefore, investors
should make their own investment decisions considering the said circumstances and obtain such specialized advice
as may be necessary. Neither shall this document nor its contents form the basis of any contract, commitment or
decision of any kind. The recipient of this report must take its own independent decisions regarding any securities or
financial instruments mentioned herein.

Inteligo SAB, as well as their executives and employees may have a position in any of the securities or instruments
referred to, directly or indirectly, in this document, or in any other related thereto. They may trade for their own
account or for third-party accounts in those securities, provide consulting or other services to the issuer of the
aforementioned securities or instruments or to companies related thereto or to their shareholders, executives or
employees. They also may have interests or perform transactions in those securities or instruments or related
investments before or after the publication of this report, to the extent permitted by the applicable law.


Methodology & Rating System

Inteligo SAB’s stock ratings are set on a twelve-month basis against relevant benchmarks. There are four stock
ratings: BUY +: Upside potential above the “normal” risk-adjusted return of the ISBVL; BUY: Upside potential above
the “normal” risk free rate for Peru; HOLD: Stock is expected to maintain investors capital relatively unchanged;
SELL: Stock is expected to cause a capital loss for investors.

                                      Expected ReturnStockX<0%            SELL
                                      0%<Expected ReturnStockX<11% HOLD
                                      11%<Expected                        BUY
                                      ReturnStockX<21%
                                      21%<Expected ReturnStockX           BUY+

Inteligo SAB’s calculation of price targets is based on a combination of one or more methodologies generally
accepted among financial analysts, including, but not limited to, comparable valuations, discounted cash flows,
whether in whole or by parts, or any other method which may be applied. The determination of a price target does not
imply any warrant that it will be attained, since this depends on other intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect both the
performance of the company and trends in the stock market on which it is based.


Security Restrictions

No part of this document may be (I) copied, photocopied or duplicated by any other form or means (ii) redistributed or
(iii) quoted without the consent of Inteligo SAB.




                                                                                                             INTELIGO SAB

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Inteligo valuation report bvn

  • 1. BUENAVENTURA April 4, 2013 LALI MERINO: LMerino@inteligogroup.com ATTRACTIVE UPSIDE POTENTIAL DESPITE T AR G E T P R I C E : $ 3 2 . 2 3 NEW OUTLOOK FOR YANACOCHA R AT I N G : BU Y + Investment Thesis • We are updating our BVN valuation model Market Indicators setting a new 12-month fundamental target Shares outstanding (000) 254,442 price of $32.23, down from $38.95. The revision ADR Ratio 1 to the target reflects the new production profile Dividend yield 2013e 2.4% for Yanacocha, our new assumptions for the unit’s life of mine, an update of our metal prices 52-week range $24.30 - $42.25 vector and BVN’s 2013 guidance for operations. 90-day average volume (US$000) 178.2 Nevertheless, despite these changes, we believe Float 67.1% BVN still offers investors an attractive upside Market Cap. (US$m) 6,205 potential. In this sense, our rating for BVN Price to Book Value 1.6x stands at BUY+. • Newmont’s guidance for Yanacocha and the Rating Parameters disappointing performance of gold price in IQ13 Current Price $24.30 dragged down BVN’s shares. Yanacocha will cut Target price $32.23 its production by 25.7% this year as the decision Yield 12 months -38.5% to postpone the Conga project in Cajamarca has Upside potential 32.6% led to revisit the unit’s output profile. However, Rating Buy+ we believe investors have overreacted to this Stock Ticker BVN new information. Sector rating Outperform • Although Yanacocha’s gold contribution to BVN will be lower, we expect the company to boost its exploration efforts at current units in order to expand the reserves & resources base. In the case of silver, the production profile shows an BVN shares' price sensitivity ($) upward trend as Uchucchacua will benefit from Gold $/oz price vector the Rio Seco Manganese plant. Furthermore, the -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% expansion projects at El Brocal and Cerro Verde will increase base metals production in the W 7.4% 28.19 30.81 33.42 36.03 38.65 coming years. Finally, it will be important to A 7.9% 27.59 30.20 32.81 35.42 38.03 monitor the developments around projects C 8.4% 27.02 29.63 32.23 34.84 37.44 currently not included in our valuation such as C 8.9% 26.49 29.08 31.68 34.28 36.88 Chucapaca and Tambomayo. Regarding Chucapaca, BVN is committed to perform 9.4% 25.97 28.57 31.16 33.75 36.35 additional studies to improve its economic returns. Valuation Changes • We have changed the production profile for Yanacocha and assumed a life of mine until depletion of reserves only. • We have reduced our gold price vector. • We have cut the contribution from El Brocal, to exclude exploration projects, as well as from Cerro Verde given the 2013 production guidance from BVN. INTELIGO SAB
  • 2. Over the last months, BVN’s shares have been YTD Performance severely affected by news from Yanacocha. In 110 Newmont releases 2013 outlook January, Newmont provided the operating guidance for this unit and the results were below market 100 expectations, triggering a sell-off in these securities. In addition, the disappointing performance of gold in 90 IQ13 contributed to BVN’s decline. Despite the new outlook for Yanacocha, we believe the market has 80 overreacted and severely chastised BVN’s shares. At current market prices, the stock offers investors an 70 attractive upside potential based on gold price Gold BVN perspectives, encouraging outlook for silver production 60 2-Apr 5-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Mar at Uchucchacua and expansion projects at El Brocal and Cerro Verde. Furthermore, following BVN’s growth Source: Bloomberg history, backed by the start up of four mines in the last years, and exploration potential, we expect BVN to continue delivering value in the foreseeable future. Gold Price Performance • Gold price performance has been sluggish so far this year. Investors demand has lacked strength and ETFs gold holdings fell after posting records in December 2012. Even though the FED announced a new round of asset purchases in an open-ended mechanism last year, mixed comments from the FED’s officials in February regarding the possibility of reducing the size of the QE3 or even halting the overall program sooner-than-anticipated exacerbated the decline of gold. ETFs Gold holdings Precious metals performance 000 troy ounces 90,000 2,000 50.00 85,000 45.00 1,800 80,000 40.00 75,000 1,600 70,000 35.00 1,400 65,000 30.00 60,000 1,200 25.00 55,000 Gold ($/oz) Silver ($/oz) 50,000 1,000 20.00 Jan-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Jul-11 Jul-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Aug-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg • Another reason behind gold’s weak performance is that the global economic activity is showing signs of reacceleration, boosting investors risk appetite and benefiting equity markets. In the US, encouraging labor data led the unemployment rate back to December 2008 levels in February. Furthermore, in China, manufacturing indicators remained within the expansionary area, while credit growth started to accelerate. In this scenario of a mild pick-up in activity, inflation remained anchored, reducing the attractiveness of inflation-hedging assets such as gold. • Despite these recent developments, we believe gold’s fundamentals remain intact. Even in a scenario when the FED halts its QE program, the size of the FED’s balance sheet is in itself a sign of a loose monetary policy. This coupled with the somewhat weak economic scenario in the Euro area, which allows the ECB to maintain its current monetary policy, and the recent changes in the Bank of Japan’s leadership also supports the scenario for gold. Furthermore, the FED’s commitment to maintain rates at low levels as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5% and inflation stands below 2.5% supports our view about the central bank’s stance, at least for 2013. • In this scenario and as US activity accelerates its growth pace -with more momentum in IIH13- inflation expectations should begin to increase pushing real yields down and backing investors’ 2 INTELIGO SAB
  • 3. demand for gold holdings. On a longer term basis, when growth reaches a sustainable path and unemployment is no longer an issue of concern for FED officials, monetary policy tightening is expected and appetite for gold should recede. • Another factor that has been gaining importance in recent years is the demand from central banks. As stated by the World Gold Council in its last report, central banks have continued to increase their gold holdings as well as Yen, in order to reduce the share of Dollars and Euros in reserves. • Furthermore, the characteristic of gold as a safe-haven asset has been reaffirmed with the recent developments around Cyprus. As European leaders worked on the conditions for a bailout, gold managed to break the $1,600 level after weeks of poor performance. Although the risks around the Euro area crisis are lower than before, the events around Cyprus recalled that fiscal issues in the region, especially in Italy and Spain, are still pending. • All in all, given the YTD performance of gold, we have adjusted downwards our price vector. Average gold prices for 2013 and 2014 now stand at $/oz 1,700 and $/oz 1,689 down from $1,775 and $1,750, respectively. Precious Metals Average Prices 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e Gold $/oz 1,227 1,573 1,669 1,700 1,689 1,550 Silver $/oz 20.24 35.32 31.16 32.00 31.00 28.50 • As in the case of gold, silver also disappointed in the first months of the year. Nevertheless, we continue to expect prices to recover from current levels. In this scenario, we are setting our 2013 and 2014 average silver forecasts at $/oz 32.00 and $/oz.31.00, respectively. Finally, it is worth to mention that we also made slight adjustments to our base metals vector. These include a lower average copper price for 2013 and zinc for 2014 in comparison with our previous estimates. Base Metals Average Prices 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e Copper $/lb 3.42 4.00 3.61 3.69 3.50 3.34 Zinc $/Mt 2,159 2,193 1,947 2,155 2,250 2,315 Lead $/Mt 2,147 2,397 2,062 2,280 2,348 2,380 Tin $/Mt 20,408 25,958 21,077 23,780 24,000 24,065 Operations Gold • BVN’s equity production, excluding Gold Output (000 oz) Yanacocha, averaged 460,000 oz Au in the 1,400 last years. On the other hand, Yanacocha’s output has gradually lost ground. In 2009, 1,200 Yanacocha produced 2.1 million oz Au, with 1,000 898K oz attributable to BVN. In 2013, 800 according to the company’s guidance, output should stand at 1.0 million oz, with only 437K 600 oz attributable to BVN. Despite the gloomy 400 outlook for this unit, we believe that BVN will 200 increase its exploration efforts in order to sustain production from direct operations as 0 2011 2012 2013e 2014e well as revisit the Chucapaca project (not included in our target price). In terms of Gold Direct Production Yanacocha Source: BVN, Inteligo's estimates 3 INTELIGO SAB
  • 4. growing strategy, BVN has delivered four mines over the last years: La Zanja (2010), Tantahuatay (2011), Mallay (2012)1 and Breapampa (2012). In this regard, we foresee that the company will maintain this strategy along with the aforementioned expansion of current operations. Below, we describe the situation of the company’s major gold operating assets. 1. Orcopampa (BVN 100%) o Orcopampa is the main gold producer among BVN’s direct operations. With an average annual production of 288K oz Au, including contribution from old tailings, this unit will be in the spotlight this year as the company will continue to invest in exploration in order to boost reserves and increase the unit’s life of mine. The recent reserves update has already shown higher yearend reserves in 2012. o Looking back into production, lower grades hit output at this unit in the last years. This scenario coupled with the presence of some strikes affected gold production in 2012, reaching 260K oz (- 8.7%). For 2013, BVN’s guidance points to higher production, up to around 280K oz (+7.4%). Orcopampa* (000 oz Au) 400 350 300 250 200 150 2010 2011 2012 2013e *Includes old tailings. Source: BVN 2. La Zanja (BVN 53.06%) o La Zanja is composed of two deposits: San Pedro Sur and Pampa Verde. Production at the San Pedro Sur deposit began in September 2010 for a total of 44K oz Au, from which 23K oz were attributable to BVN. The guidance for this unit was set at 100K oz; nevertheless, in 2011, output surpassed expectations due to higher-than-anticipated grades. In 2012, production stood at 112K oz and in the coming years we expect output to stabilize at the original guidance. Silver output from this unit was also important, reaching 388K oz Ag in 2012. 3. Tantahuatay (BVN 40.04%) o The Tantahuatay operation started production in 2011 and is composed of two deposits: Tantahuatay 2 and Cienaga Norte. Operations began at Tantahuatay 2 and the company is currently working on the construction of the Cienaga Norte project as part of the unit’s expansion. In 2012, gold output stood at 141K oz and for 2013 BVN anticipates producing around 125K oz. Regarding silver, total production at Tantahuatay reached 919K oz in 2012. 4. Breapampa (BVN 100%) o In November 2012, Breapampa began operations and accounted for 9K oz Au of BVN’s production last year. The initial project’s outline set a target of around 60K oz Au. For valuation purposes we are only accounting reserves from the Parccaorcoo prospect, which leads to a two- year life of mine. Nevertheless, BVN could eventually consider the treatment of the resources from the Senccata and Pucagallo porspects in order to expand operations. 1 Producer of silver, lead and zinc 4 INTELIGO SAB
  • 5. 5. Yanacocha (BVN 43.65%) o Yanacocha has been in the spotlight since the unveiling of protests around the Conga project. Furthermore, the decision of Newmont to suspend the Conga project until 2017 and prioritize the construction of the reservoirs to support water availability for Cajamarca has led the company to review its production profile for coming years. o Considering the reserves base only, Yanacocha’s life of mine reaches 6.0 years. Given the negative mood around the Yanacocha operation in Cajamarca, we are including only reserves into our valuation model as this stands as more conservative approach. In this scenario, we expect to see production at around 1.0m oz Au in 2013, while gradually declining to 0.8m oz Au in 2016. These figures contrast with historical production levels, which stood at 1.4m oz on average in the last three years. o The decline in Yanacocha’s output should have an impact on the company’s operating performance, which in turn will be reflected in a lower contribution to BVN’s consolidated net earnings. According to our estimates and our new gold price vector, Yanacocha’s contribution to BVN result should stand at $205m in 2013. In this context, in terms of valuation, Yanacocha now accounts for $8.04 of our target price. Yanacocha (000 oz Au) 1,550 1,350 1,150 950 750 550 2010 2011 2012 2013e Source: BVN o As for the future of Yanacocha, BVN is looking forward to reactivate the Chaquicocha (gold) pit by expanding the unit and exploring underground opportunities in high grade areas. In this context, exploration works at the site will be performed in 2013 in order to identify additional reserves potential. It is worth to highlight that we are not including this guidance on our financial model until reserves are effectively increased. Moreover, on its annual report, BVN announced the construction of a pilot leaching facility to treat sulfides. Nevertheless, this project is in early stage and the results are yet to be seen. Silver • As opposed to gold, silver equity production has shown a favorable performance, increasing from 15.5m oz in 2010 to 18.3m oz in 2012, guided mainly by the higher contribution from Uchucchacua, Julcani, La Zanja, Tantahuatay and, recently, Mallay. For the coming years, the production profile is encouraging, mainly due to the higher recovery rates at Uchucchacua. 5 INTELIGO SAB
  • 6. Silver Output (million oz) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Source: BVN, Inteligo's estimates 1. Uchucchacua (BVN 100%) o Uchucchacua is BVN’s main silver producer, accounting for 61.5% of total equity production in 2012. Last year silver output climbed 11.6% on the back of higher ore treated and recovery rates. Looking forward, we foresee further improvements in recovery rates, supported by the start of operations of the Rio Seco manganese sulfate plant this year. The purpose of this plant is to enhance the quality of the lead/silver concentrates from Uchucchacua by reducing the manganese content. Uchucchacua (million oz Ag) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2010 2011 2012 2013e Source: BVN 2. Julcani (BVN 100%) o Julcani was the first of BVN’s operations when the company was founded in 1953. As a silver producer, Julcani accounts for 13.3% of total BVN’s equity production in 2012, and has seen its output expand from 1.8m oz in 2009 to 2.4m oz Ag in 2012. In addition, given the increase in reserves, BVN expanded the unit’s plant from 400tpd to 500tpd, adding to the favorable outlook for the company’s silver output. 3. Mallay (BVN 100%) o This unit began operations in May 2012, with a total silver output of 683K oz. For 2013, we foresee production at around 1.2m oz Ag, explaining part of the increase in total equity output. Base metals • El Brocal and Cerro Verde account for most of BVN’s equity zinc and copper production. In both operations, expansion projects are in progress and are expected to boost base metals production in coming years. 6 INTELIGO SAB
  • 7. 1. El Brocal (BVN 53.76%) o El Brocal is a zinc, lead and copper El Brocal fine ores (000 MT) producing company with two defined 120 deposits: Tajo Norte (zinc – lead) and 100 Marcapunta Norte (copper). Last year, in addition to base metal concentrates, El 80 Brocal produced 13K MT of silver 60 concentrates from stockpiles. 40 o As mentioned above, El Brocal is in the 20 process of expanding its concentrator capacity to 18,000tpd by IIIQ13. In fact, in 0 2012, El Brocal reached a capacity of 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 11,235tpd and according to our estimates, Lead Zinc Copper the company will be working at a 14,400tpd Source: El Brocal, Inteligo's estimates rate on average this year. Following the project’s completion this year and the original guidance from the company, zinc and lead output should benefit the most from the expansion while copper production is expected to remain around current levels. o In addition to the concentrator expansion, El Brocal has two projects: San Gregorio and Marcapunta Oeste. In 2012, El Brocal invested heavily in exploration works at San Gregorio ($11.3m); nevertheless, drilling works at this moment are in standby as the Vicco community cancelled the exploration permits amid disagreements inside the community. We expect works to resume in the mid-term. In the case of Marcapunta Oeste, there have not been major announcements; nonetheless, BVN is studying methods for the treatment of copper ores with arsenic content. These studies and the development of technology will also benefit the potential of the Tantahuatay operation as a similar content can be found in certain areas currently not included in our valuation. Given that these projects are still in exploration phase, we consider that their exclusion from our financial model stands as a more conservative approach and provides a better assessment of the operation’s value. o Regarding total capital expenditures at El Brocal, we have increased our 2013 estimate to $91.5m given the recent increase in the expansion project’s budget from $254.4m to $305.1m. The revision to budget reflects higher-than-expected ground movement works as well as higher machinery costs. All in all, taking into account BVN’s guidance on El Brocal for 2013, the capex adjustment, our slight revision to the base metal price vector and our decision to exclude the San Gregorio and Marcapunta Oeste in situ values, El Brocal now accounts for $3.11 of BVN’s target, which entails a PEN 33.35 target for El Brocal C shares. 2. Cerro Verde (BVN 19.58%) o In December 2012, Cerro Verde received Cerro Verde Copper Output (million lb)* the approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment for the operation expansion. 1,200 This project will increase the company’s 1,050 concentrator capacity from 120,000tpd to 900 360,000tpd, with a total budget of $4,400 750 million and 2016 as the completion date. Construction works should begin this year 600 given that permits have already been 450 received. Considering that an increase in 300 the volume of ore treated will have an 150 impact on grades, the expansion will ultimately boost copper production by 600m 0 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e lb and molybdenum by 15m lb when compared to a non-expansion scenario. *Cathodes equivalent Source: Cerro Verde, Inteligo's estimates According to Freeport, after the expansion, copper output should reach 1,100m or an equivalent of 500K MT per year. 7 INTELIGO SAB
  • 8. o In our strategy report (January 2013), we assumed that Cerro Verde’s output will recover this year given that last year’s performance was affected by heavy rains in Arequipa and lower SXEW copper grades. Nonetheless, we are changing our assumptions on the production profile following BVN’s guidance. According to the company, copper output should reach approximately 260K MT, lower than 2012 figures. In addition, we do not foresee a major improvement in output in the 2014- 2015 period as the company is directing its efforts towards the expansion project. In this scenario, we have adjusted downwards our production profile for Cerro Verde, with an average copper production (cathodes equivalent) of 585m lb from 2013 to 2015. From there on, the expansion should take place and we foresee that the full benefits will be tangible in 2016. In addition, given the guidance provided for the company, we have increased the 2013 capital expenditure budget to $1,200m. Please note that in terms of the company’s net result, we are no longer including the disbursements for the wastewater treatment plant as part of non-operating expenses given that they will be included as capex. o Taking into account the new production profile, the downward revision to the average copper price for 2013 and the higher-than-expected 2013 capex budget, we are cutting our Cerro Verde contribution to BVN’s target to $9.38. In terms of our Cerro Verde C shares valuation, the new target price stands at $34.81, down from $40.86. Although we are assuming that the benefits of the expansion will be tangible by 2016, a sooner-than-anticipated completion date or ramp up ahead of expectations stand as the main upside risk to our valuation. BVN’s Projects • In the previous section, we mentioned the Rio Seco processing plant as one of the projects that is due this year. The plant will benefit the lead-silver concentrates from Uchucchacua, by increasing silver recovery. According to the schedule provided by the company, construction should be completed by May with a total capex of $90m. In addition, the expansion of the concentrator plant at El Brocal should be ready by June 2013, while the Cerro Verde expansion by 2016. • Besides the aforementioned, BVN has additional exploration projects which are not currently included in our valuation model. Furthermore, as stated in our strategy report, the risks behind the Conga project back our decision to exclude it from our target price: o Conga: Conga is a gold/copper deposit with a total of 12.6m oz Au and 3,300m lb Cu in reserves (5.5m oz Au and 1,400m lb Cu attributable to BVN). Following the review of the EIA by international experts, in June 2012, Newmont Mining announced its intention to postpone the Conga project and instead focus on the construction of the water reservoirs. The construction of the reservoirs is moving forward; nevertheless, the risks around the project’s execution remain as the regional government of Cajamarca has consistently revealed its opposition to the project. In fact, on its 2012 annual report, Newmont Mining stressed that the development will depend on the project’s ability to generate acceptable returns as well as getting local support. In the case Conga does not move forward, Newmont will consider reallocating capital to other projects in Nevada, Australia, Indonesia and Ghana. o Chucapaca (BVN 49%, Gold Fields 51%): Located in Moquegua, Chucapaca is a gold/copper deposit with 6.0m oz Au in total resources. In November 2012, a first draft of the Feasibility Study concluded that the project’s design (open pit operation of 30,000 tpd) demanded an investment with no acceptable returns. As a result, BVN and Gold Fields are committed to perform additional studies in order to redesign the project (underground/ combination of underground and open pit) and review capital costs. Moreover, additional exploration in the area will be performed. In this sense, new guidance on the project is expected by the end of the year. o Tambomayo (Au/Ag) and Trapiche (Cu): Both projects are in advanced exploration stage and drilling works are being performed. In Tambomayo, BVN is evaluating a 1,000tpd flotation plant; nevertheless, we expect further guidance and definition before adding the project to our valuation. 8 INTELIGO SAB
  • 9. Target Price Determination Target Price Composition ($32.23) • We have determined our BVN target price using a DCF model. We apply a NAV multiple of 1.5x BVN (precious metal operations) El Brocal Cerro Verde to BVN’s precious metal operations including Yanacocha and add the contribution from El 29% Brocal and Cerro Verde, which are valued separately. • According to our analysis, we set a 12-month fundamental target price of $32.23 and a 61% BUY+ rating for BVN shares. At current market 10% prices, our valuation entails an upside potential of 32.6%. Source: Inteligo's estimates Comparables Analysis • On the back of a comparable analysis, BVN P/E ratios stand significantly below the industry’s average, signaling that the company is relatively undervalued. As stated in our investment thesis, BVN’s shares have suffered from an overreaction to news from Yanacocha and gold price movements. In this sense, as our fundamental analysis suggests, there is an interesting upside potential investors can capture. P/E P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA Company Country 12m 2013e 12m 2013e BVN Peru 9.1 8.5 9.9 7.3 Yamana Gold Canada 21.8 13.1 8.9 6.8 Goldcorp Canada 16.5 16.0 10.7 8.2 Barrick Gold Canada 7.2 6.6 6.7 5.1 Kinross Gold Corp Canada 9.1 10.3 6.0 4.3 Newmont Mining US 10.2 9.7 7.4 6.0 Newcrest Mining Australia 18.2 19.7 11.8 10.5 Average 13.2 12.0 8.8 6.9 Source: Bloomberg, Inteligo's estimates Risk to our valuation • Volatility in commodity markets: Although fundamentals in precious metal markets remain, the possibility that prices fell short of our expectations is a downside risk to our valuation. In this sense, it will be important to monitor the FED’s monetary policy stance as changes in the committee’s view could push gold price further down. • Social conflicts: Despite the fact that Conga is not in our base case scenario, the construction of the water reservoirs could trigger additional disruptions in the area, adding volatility to BVN shares. Overall, the government’s stance towards social conflicts will guide market agents’ sentiment towards the mining sector. • Projects not included in our valuation: We will monitor further developments around the Chucapaca project as its execution should help boost gold production in coming years. In addition, the definition of the Tambomayo and Trapiche projects stands as an upside bias to our valuation. 9 INTELIGO SAB
  • 10. Buenaventura: Financial and Value Indicators Current Price: $24.30 Target Price: $32.23 Rating: BUY+ Income Statement (US$m) 2012 Revenues Breakdown 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Revenues 1,556.6 1,563.5 1,798.7 1,804.7 Gold Silver Copper Zinc/Lead Gross Profit 844.5 620.3 829.7 878.6 Operating Expenses 86.8 117.4 117.7 126.8 EBIT 757.7 502.9 712.0 751.9 EBITDA 854.1 626.0 848.1 918.3 Net Income 858.9 684.7 732.9 723.3 EPS 3.38 2.69 2.88 2.84 DPS 0.56 0.60 0.58 0.57 Growth and Margins 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Revenues Growth 41.0% 0.4% 15.0% 0.3% Source: BVN EBIT Growth 79.8% -33.6% 41.6% 5.6% EBITDA Growth 72.1% -26.7% 35.5% 8.3% Net Income Growth 30.0% -20.3% 7.0% -1.3% Gross Margin 54.2% 39.7% 46.1% 48.7% Revenues ($ million) Operating Margin 48.7% 32.2% 39.6% 41.7% 1,900 EBITDA Margin 54.9% 40.0% 47.2% 50.9% Net Margin 55.2% 43.8% 40.7% 40.1% 1,700 Equity / Assets 87.0% 86.4% 86.2% 87.6% 1,500 Balance Sheet (US$m) 1,300 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 1,100 Cash 470.8 186.7 221.3 443.6 Assets 3,953.5 4,588.7 4,939.1 5,198.0 900 Financial Debt 106.1 179.3 230.6 203.6 700 Liabilities 513.1 624.3 681.0 644.9 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Equity 3,440.5 3,964.4 4,258.1 4,553.1 Source: BVN, Inteligo's estimates Free Cash Flow (US$m) 2011 2012 2013e 2014e EBITDA 854.1 626.0 848.1 918.3 BVN 12-month performance CAPEX -317.8 -442.9 -388.9 -201.5 Taxes -232.9 -168.1 -229.8 -242.6 45.00 2,000 1,800 Working Capital Change 39.4 -26.7 -33.1 -10.1 40.00 1,600 Free Cash Flow 342.7 -11.7 196.3 464.1 Volume (US$000) 1,400 Price (US$) 35.00 1,200 1,000 Value Indicators 30.00 800 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 600 25.00 400 P/E 7.2x 9.1x 8.5x 8.6x 200 EV/EBITDA 7.3x 9.9x 7.3x 6.7x 20.00 0 P/BV 1.8x 1.6x 1.5x 1.4x Nov-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-13 Apr-12 Feb-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 P/Sales 4.0x 4.0x 3.4x 3.4x ROA 21.7% 14.9% 14.8% 13.9% Volume Price Source: Economática ROE 25.0% 17.3% 17.2% 15.9% 10 INTELIGO SAB
  • 11. El Brocal: Financial and Value Indicators Current Price: PEN 30.30 Target Price: PEN 33.35 Rating: HOLD Income Statement (US$m) El Brocal's Margins 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 60% Revenues 264.4 268.5 338.7 413.6 50% Gross Profit 148.4 84.4 132.1 207.2 40% Operating Expenses 37.9 46.0 38.8 42.6 EBIT 110.4 38.4 93.4 164.6 30% EBITDA 123.3 65.5 122.5 199.1 20% Net Income 77.9 24.5 61.1 109.7 10% EPS 0.72 0.22 0.56 1.01 DPS 0.33 0.29 0.05 0.17 0% 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Growth and Margins Operating Margin EBITDA margin Net Margin 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Source: El Brocal, Inteligo's estimates Revenues Growth 20.6% 1.5% 26.1% 22.1% EBIT Growth 8.3% -65.2% 143.3% 76.3% EBITDA Growth 13.1% -46.8% 86.9% 62.5% El Brocal Earnings ($million) Net Income Growth 8.7% -68.6% 149.9% 79.4% Gross Margin 56.1% 31.4% 39.0% 50.1% 250 Operating Margin 41.8% 14.3% 27.6% 39.8% 200 EBITDA Margin 46.6% 24.4% 36.2% 48.1% Net Margin 29.5% 9.1% 18.1% 26.5% 150 Equity / Assets 84.9% 68.3% 65.0% 70.7% 100 Balance Sheet (US$m) 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 50 Cash 81.1 23.4 36.2 60.3 0 Assets 461.5 561.0 675.6 749.5 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Financial Debt 0.0 60.3 111.6 94.6 Gross Result Net Result Liabilities 69.8 177.7 236.6 219.6 Source: El Brocal, Inteligo's estimates Equity 391.6 383.3 439.0 530.0 Free Cash Flow (US$m) 2011 2012 2013e 2014e EBITDA 123.3 65.5 122.5 199.1 El Brocal C 12-month performance CAPEX -64.0 -113.3 -91.5 -42.3 55.00 450 Taxes -33.1 -14.3 -29.8 -52.9 50.00 400 Working Capital Change 43.3 -11.6 -9.5 -18.3 350 Free Cash Flow 69.5 -73.7 -8.2 85.5 Volume (US$000) 45.00 300 Price (PEN) 40.00 250 35.00 200 Value Indicators 30.00 150 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 100 25.00 P/E 17.1x 54.6x 21.8x 12.2x 50 20.00 0 EV/EBITDA 10.5x 19.8x 10.6x 6.5x Apr-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jul-12 May-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 P/BV 3.2x 3.3x 2.9x 2.4x P/Sales 4.8x 4.7x 3.7x 3.0x Volume Price ROA 16.9% 4.4% 9.0% 14.6% Source: Economática ROE 19.9% 6.4% 13.9% 20.7% 11 INTELIGO SAB
  • 12. Cerro Verde: Financial and Value Indicators Current Price: $31.00 Target Price: $34.81 Rating: BUY Income Statement (US$m) 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Revenues ($ million) Revenues 2,520.1 2,127.0 2,119.4 2,082.6 4,500 Gross Profit 1,695.4 1,325.5 1,283.6 1,203.1 4,000 Operating Expenses 83.6 78.7 74.8 71.7 3,500 EBIT 1,611.7 1,246.8 1,208.8 1,131.4 3,000 EBITDA 1,695.8 1,342.7 1,344.6 1,347.1 Net Income 1,078.4 772.1 779.6 751.2 2,500 EPS 3.08 2.21 2.23 2.15 2,000 DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,500 1,000 Growth and Margins 500 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 0 Revenues Growth 6.4% -15.6% -0.4% -1.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e EBIT Growth -2.1% -22.6% -3.0% -6.4% Source: Cerro Verde, Inteligo's estimates EBITDA Growth -2.2% -20.8% 0.1% 0.2% Net Income Growth 0.4% -28.4% 1.0% -3.6% Gross Margin 67.3% 62.3% 60.6% 57.8% Cerro Verde Earnings ($million) Operating Margin 64.0% 58.6% 57.0% 54.3% 1,800 EBITDA Margin 67.3% 63.1% 63.4% 64.7% 1,600 Net Margin 42.8% 36.3% 36.8% 36.1% 1,400 Equity / Assets 83.8% 85.3% 87.6% 89.1% 1,200 1,000 Balance Sheet (US$m) 800 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 600 Cash 1,383.6 1,427.5 1,154.1 1,102.3 400 Assets 3,196.6 4,042.8 4,828.7 5,587.8 200 Financial Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Liabilities 519.0 593.1 599.3 607.3 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Equity 2,677.6 3,449.7 4,229.4 4,980.6 Gross Result Net Result Source: Cerro Verde, Inteligo's estimates Free Cash Flow (US$m) 2011 2012 2013e 2014e EBITDA 1,695.8 1,342.7 1,344.6 1,347.1 Cerro Verde 12-month performance CAPEX -195.2 -600.9 -1,197.0 -1,035.7 Taxes -483.5 -434.5 -418.6 -368.2 45.00 3,000 Working Capital Change -16.5 11.2 7.4 13.5 40.00 2,500 Free Cash Flow 1,000.5 318.5 -263.5 -43.3 Volume (US$000) 2,000 Price (US$) 35.00 1,500 Value Indicators 30.00 1,000 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 25.00 P/E 10.1x 14.1x 13.9x 14.4x 500 EV/EBITDA 5.6x 7.0x 7.0x 7.0x 20.00 0 P/BV 4.1x 3.1x 2.6x 2.2x Nov-12 Jul-12 May-12 Apr-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 P/Sales 4.3x 5.1x 5.1x 5.2x ROA 33.7% 19.1% 16.1% 13.4% Volume Price Source: Economática ROE 40.3% 22.4% 18.4% 15.1% 12 INTELIGO SAB
  • 13. Analyst Certification The Research Analyst that prepared this report hereby certifies that the views expressed in it accurately reflect his/her views about the subject companies and their securities. The Analyst also certifies that he/she has not been, is not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation for expressing the specific view in this report. General The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Inteligo SAB does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to Inteligo SAB and the analyst’s involvement with the issuer. Inteligo SAB accepts no liability, of any type, for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the document or its contents. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material release and are subject to changes without further notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The market prices of securities or instruments or the results of investments could fluctuate against the interests of investors. Investors should be aware that they could even face a loss on their investment. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and the ratings herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. Therefore, investors should make their own investment decisions considering the said circumstances and obtain such specialized advice as may be necessary. Neither shall this document nor its contents form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind. The recipient of this report must take its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Inteligo SAB, as well as their executives and employees may have a position in any of the securities or instruments referred to, directly or indirectly, in this document, or in any other related thereto. They may trade for their own account or for third-party accounts in those securities, provide consulting or other services to the issuer of the aforementioned securities or instruments or to companies related thereto or to their shareholders, executives or employees. They also may have interests or perform transactions in those securities or instruments or related investments before or after the publication of this report, to the extent permitted by the applicable law. Methodology & Rating System Inteligo SAB’s stock ratings are set on a twelve-month basis against relevant benchmarks. There are four stock ratings: BUY +: Upside potential above the “normal” risk-adjusted return of the ISBVL; BUY: Upside potential above the “normal” risk free rate for Peru; HOLD: Stock is expected to maintain investors capital relatively unchanged; SELL: Stock is expected to cause a capital loss for investors. Expected ReturnStockX<0% SELL 0%<Expected ReturnStockX<11% HOLD 11%<Expected BUY ReturnStockX<21% 21%<Expected ReturnStockX BUY+ Inteligo SAB’s calculation of price targets is based on a combination of one or more methodologies generally accepted among financial analysts, including, but not limited to, comparable valuations, discounted cash flows, whether in whole or by parts, or any other method which may be applied. The determination of a price target does not imply any warrant that it will be attained, since this depends on other intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect both the performance of the company and trends in the stock market on which it is based. Security Restrictions No part of this document may be (I) copied, photocopied or duplicated by any other form or means (ii) redistributed or (iii) quoted without the consent of Inteligo SAB. INTELIGO SAB