Trends in Real Estate in Tampa, Florida

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Real EstateTrends
Real Estate Trends
For the Hillsborough &
Pasco County Markets
September 2009
The data provided has been researched from the Greater Tampa Association
of Realtors Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service.
The opinions and forecast of future Real Estate Trends are provided by
Mario Polo.

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Where Is The Market Going?
Where Are We Going
September 2009
August numbers are in and we had a 14.6% increase in activity compared to August 2008. Compared to
2008, our market has shown a steady increase in units sold.
POSITIVE NEWS:
August home sales slowed down when compared to the previous two months, according to statistics
released by the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors (GTAR). Sales totaled 1620 for the month.
The number of sales reduced the available inventory of homes for sale in the county. The current inventory
of 14588 homes for sale is the lowest since April 2006.
Commentary continued on page 2
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Where Is The Market Going?
Where Are We Going
September 2009
Commentary continued from page 1
The 2009 Tax Credit is definitely increasing sales in the Tampa area.
These are positive signs which we will watch closely in the months ahead. The new $8000 Advance Tax Credit
has been a failure to date. No system has been implemented that allows the consumer to use their Tax Credit at
time of purchase.
NOTE: The following is a recap of the listing and sales history from January 2004 through August 2009. This
information is provided from our Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service and most of these transactions
occurred in Hillsborough and Pasco Counties.
A new vendor is now supplying board members with the sales information. The new vendor has a
different method of calculating the data and some differences may appear.
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Monthly Closed Sales
Monthly Closed Sales
September 2009
MONTHLY SALES ARE:
The number of closed sales that have taken place in a particular month. This is a strong indicator in determining
the direction of the market. The data on the following pages suggest that 2009 will be a much better sales year
than the previous 2 years.
POSITIVE NEWS:
August 2009 Closed Sales were 1620 which was a 14.6% increase of August 2008 Closed Sales. Year-to-date
Closed Sales have increased by 2140 units, which reflects a 21.3% increase in units sold.
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Monthly Closed Sales
Monthly Closed Sales Line
Prepared by Mario Polo
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2004 1336 1557 2043 2067 2163 2716 2453 2216 1722 1909 1750 2304
2005 1652 1948 2644 2783 3003 3203 2932 2937 2710 2234 2298 2646
2006 1681 1718 2403 2108 2371 2340 1887 1895 1718 1577 1470 1898
2007 1121 1209 1357 1249 1301 1446 1268 1384 1006 1133 977 1099
2008 846 976 1221 1320 1390 1474 1424 1414 1428 1279 1075 1332
2009 1033 1208 1511 1557 1554 1861 1861 1620

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Projected Closed Sales
Projected Closed Sales
September 2009
PROJECTED CLOSED SALES:
At the start of 2009, I added my projection of closed sales for 2009. This was in addition to our previous reports.
I am somewhat pleased to report that my projections have been exceeded by actual sales.
My Year-to-date Projections called for an 18% increase in closed sales through August 2009. Actual sales
closed were 21.3% increased over the first six months of 2008.
Unfortunately, August closings were below my predictions for August. This was the first month in 2009 that
actual sales were below my projection. New FHA guidelines and lower appraisals may be the cause of this.
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Projected Closed Sales
Projected Closed Sales Line Chart
Prepared by Mario Polo
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2007 1121 1209 1357 1249 1301 1446 1268 1384 1006 1133
977 1099
2008 846 976 1221 1320 1390 1474 1424 1414 1428 1279 1075 1332
2009 Projected 900 1100 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1800 1600 1700 1800
2009 Actual 1033 1208 1511 1557 1554 1861 1861 1620

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Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price
September 2009
BAD NEWS:
Our average sales price for August 2009 was $165,058 which was a decrease of $11,370 when compared to July
2009. Since January 2009 through August 2009, we have been trending from a low of $157,089 to $173,544.
This suggests that values may continue bouncing along in this range for the rest of 2009.
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Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price Line
Prepared by Mario Polo
$300,000.00
$275,000.00
$250,000.00
$225,000.00
$200,000.00
$175,000.00
$150,000.00
$125,000.00
$100,000.00
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2004 $192,910.00 $182,812.00 $180,227.00 $190,980.00 $195,350.00 $215,389.00 $214,660.00 $208,023.00 $206,724.00 $208,495.00 $206,575.00 $209,059.00
2005 $219,186.00 $213,087.00 $225,553.00 $228,809.00 $237,533.00 $257,600.00 $260,221.00 $248,690.00 $257,283.00 $269,403.00 $264,381.00 $261,815.00
2006 $256,189.00 $258,271.00 $261,635.00 $266,072.00 $269,312.00 $287,019.00 $275,266.00 $274,378.00 $263,973.00 $265,923.00 $262,666.00 $259,363.00
2007 $259,065.00 $265,149.00 $254,856.00 $261,731.00 $266,082.00 $273,190.00 $269,058.00 $262,629.00 $249,042.00 $259,460.00 $250,283.00 $267,117.00
2008 $249,025.00 $235,290.00 $230,166.00 $221,384.00 $243,108.00 $227,152.00 $224,055.00 $209,341.00 $205,121.00 $186,425.00 $181,867.00 $183,241.00
2009 $160,775.00 $157,761.00 $165,661.00 $154,103.00 $162,086.00 $170,349.00 $176,428.00 $165,058.00

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Current Inventory
Current Inventory
September 2009
NORMAL MARKET:
A normal market is widely considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. Our current
availability of homes for sale is 14,588, which is 4862 more homes available than our current monthly sales can
absorb. A vast improvement compared to August 2008.
POSITIVE NEWS:
Compared to August 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 6086 units. Hopefully this trend will
continue. August 2009 compared to July 2009 also reflected a decrease in current inventory of 939 units, a 6%
decrease.
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Current Inventory
Current Inventory Line
Prepared by Mario Polo
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2004 9252 5896 5697 5317 5102 4921 4626 4474 4405 4686 4707 4433
2005 4687 4386 4084 3772 3709 3835 4047 4457 5318 6886 7420 7858
2006 9656 10865 12230 13707 14112 16082 17036 17785 16991 18029 18090 17154
2007 18707 19234 19814 20409 20793 20821 20649 20680 20218 20942 20768 19354
2008 21079 21236 21335 21214 20968 20901 20893 20674 20880 20727 20534 19929
2009 19434 19084 18631 17987 17096 16280 15527 14588

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Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
September 2009
NORMAL MARKET:
As stated previously, a normal market is considered to be one that has six months of homes available for
sale. This is considered to be a balanced market where neither buyer or seller has an advantage based on
available supply.
POSITIVE NEWS:
When we compare August 2008 to August 2009, we can see a decrease of almost 5.6 months of inventory.
A Huge Difference. We expect this trend to continue in the months ahead. When we compare August 2009
to July 2009, our months of inventory continues to decrease. Many would argue that inventory has been
our number one problem over the previous 3 years. We can expect values to increase as inventory of
homes, short sales and foreclosures decrease. This will be a long, slow process.
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Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Line
Prepared by Mario Polo
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2004 6.93 3.79 2.79 2.57 2.36 1.81 1.89 2.02 2.56 2.45 2.69 1.92
2005 2.84 2.25 1.54 1.36 1.24 1.2 1.38 1.52 1.96 3.08 3.23 2.97
2006 5.74 6.32 5.09 6.5 5.95 6.87 9.03 9.39 9.89 11.43 12.31 9.04
2007 16.69 15.91 14.6 16.34 15.98 14.4 16.28 14.94 20.1 18.48 21.26 17.61
2008 24.9 21.8 17.5 16.1 15.1 14.2 14.7 14.6 14.6 16.2 19.1 15.0
2009 18.8 15.8 12.3 11.6 11.0 8.7 8.3 9.0

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Summation
Summation
September 2009
OVER ALL POSITIVE NEWS:
1. August 2009 Monthly Sales increased 14.6% compared to August 2008.
2. Compared to August 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 6086 units.
3. Months of Inventory, when compared to August 2008, has decreased by 5.6 months.
4. $8000 Tax Credit Bill is starting to improve sales.
a. The Federal Government has approved a program to advance the $8000 tax credit at closing. See
attached article. http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/may/13/sp-home-sales-may-get-a-push/
b. Only 2.5 months remain for First Time Home Owners to take advantage of this program.
5. Average Sales Price decreased by 6.4% when compared to July 2009.
As Sales improve in 2009, all of these indicators, we believe, may continue to create further positive trends for
2009.
Summation continued on page 14
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Summation
Summation
September 2009
Summation continued from page 13
The data suggests that our market may improve in the months ahead. We have experienced increased sales and the
August numbers suggest that there may be a similar increase in sales in the months ahead.
•Our Financial System is still under stress
•The $8000 Stimulus for Home Buyers is improving sales for First-Time Homebuyers. The $8000 Advance Tax
Credit has not been implemented at this time.
•The World Economies are struggling for answers.
•September closings will be a further indicator of how strong sales will be this fall.
•Short Sales and Foreclosures are still a major challenge to our market. Short Sales are becoming more difficult
to complete as lenders have taken a more unrealistic approach to close on these units.
We look forward to an exciting year in home sales for Tampa Bay, even though our unemployed numbers are still
high and lenders are still being very restrictive with loans. Appraisals have become a major challenge in the past
60 days.
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