After being under a tremendous amount of pressure over the five past years, commodities, represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, finally started to show signs of relief when they rallied by some 11% (measured from close to close) over the past three months.

1. Is the Rally in the
Commodities
Markets Going to
Continue?

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The commodities rally
» Commodities have been under tremendous pressure in the past 5
years
» Signs of relief showing – 11% rally over recent months
» Size of rally is almost twice of the average 3-monthly rallies

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Commodities Returns

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Commodity Index performance after an 11%
rally in three months

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Gold performance
» Up by 21% since end of Nov 2015
» Since 1928, gold has rallied by more than 21% in a 5-month period
only 5.6% of the times
» Average five-month return was around 12.6% only
» Recent rally has been significant

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Gold’s performance after a 21% rally in five
months

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Oil’s rally
» Oil price was up by 39% from January to April 2016
» Since 1998, only 12 times where oil has rallied more than 19% over 3-
months
» Average 3-month return is only 14%

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Oil’s performance after a 39% rally in three
months

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US dollar performance
» In May 2013, USD index briefly dipped below the 93 support level
» Quickly rallied and went above bearish trendline
» Data shows the USD rallying back strongly once it touched the 93
support line

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Monthly USD index Chart

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US dollar’s current rally
» The end of a 3-month losing streak
» Historical data shows once USD ends a 3-month losing streak, it
climbs an average of 2% in first month and continues appreciating
» 69% chance of the US dollar going higher

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USD dollar performance after breaking a three
month losing streak

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Will the rally continue?
» Current rallies have not reached a point of exhaustion
» But a strong US dollar could impact commodities prices
» A bearish and more conservative view may be appropriate

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How to trade these market opportunities?
Take advantage of these trading opportunities, go to:
https://www.gomarkets.com.au/is-the-rally-in-the-commodities-
markets-going-to-continue/

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