In looking at the WiMax market at the start of a new year, what better way to gain insight into future trends than by interviewing those who know the topic and technology best? The following piece is a compilation of opinions and foresights from seven experts in the telecom world who are part of the GoingWiMax.com community. According to these experts, a demand for mobile data capacity and more WiMax-embedded devices, increasing WiMax deployment both nationally and abroad, accelerated download speeds, LTE breakthrough, and the broadband stimulus bill will be some of the major factors affecting and influencing the WiMax market in big ways in 2010.

1. 28575-142875“WiMax in 2010” -9525381635 By Robb Henshaw, Julien Blin, Torbjorn Ward, Esme Vos, Cecil Taylor, Kelvin Lee, Randall Schwartz 190503175Robb Henshaw, Global Director of Marketing at Proxim Wireless (www.proxim.com)
2010 is going to be all about dealing with the mobile data deluge – via increased wireless backhaul and offloading existing mobile networks. Analysts and carriers themselves estimate that the demand for mobile data capacity – which is skyrocketing based on massive adoption of smartphones – will increase by at least 10x. As a result, it will become abundantly clear that the current backhaul model (fiber to widely distributed cell towers) no longer works, and cannot cost-effectively scale to meet this ever-increasing demand. With the cost of fiber and time to deploy being much greater than wireless, wireless backhaul will emerge as the technology of choice for cost-effectively increasing backhaul capacity. In addition to increasing wireless backhaul, I predict that carriers and service providers will also pursue the deployment of outdoor Wi-Fi networks for 3G Offload – thus encouraging smartphone users to connect via Wi-Fi when utilizing data-hungry apps. AT&T is already utilizing its acquisition of Wayport to offer Wi-Fi to all AT&T subscribers, and Verizon is doing the same via partnership with Boingo – so look for more carriers to advance this “Wi-Fi for 3G Offload” trend in 2010
-2857525400Julien Blin,CEO and principal analyst at JBB Research (www.jbbresearch.com)
1. Scheduled rollout of first LTE networks in Africa in 2010 set to improve user experience and drive mobile entertainment content/service adoption. As African carriers continue to upgrade their network to 4G technologies (e.g. WiMAX, LTE), users will be able to enjoy a better user experience while using mobile entertainment services as those services will run on faster networks like LTE or WiMAX. African carriers in countries like South Africa and Libya are scheduled to start rolling out their LTE network in 2010. This should help further drive mobile entertainment services usage.2. Various 4G strategies likely to emerge in 2010. While LTE is set to be the flavor of choice for many carriers at the world level, this might be a different story in Africa. Some African carriers will decide to focus primarily on WiMAX or LTE while others will choose a dual approach (WiMAX-LTE).
952525400Torbjorn Ward, CEO Aptilo Networks (www.aptilo.com)
We believe 2010 will be the year when WiMAX will distance itself from 3G Mobile Broadband technologies in terms of download speeds and end-user experience and WiAX will show its true face as a 4G technology. The building blocks of the WiMAX 16e ecosystem – the networks, devices and back-end systems -- have finally finished their “growing pains” and are showing their full potential of giving download speeds of up to 10 Mbps (bursts up to 15 Mbps). The difference from landline office connections will hardly be noticeable for most real-life applications such as video, music and Web browsing thanks to the built-in end-to-end quality of service. 3G networks increasingly suffer from heavier traffic load from the growing number of mobile devices such as iPhones that drive 15x bandwidth than the standard smartphone, pushing them in a downward spiral with even slower speeds, making the difference between 3G and 4G/WiMAX much more apparent since speed in WiMAX networks will increase when networks get tuned. It should be noted that WiMAX networks many times have even more spectrum to draw from than the 3G networks have for all of their services, including millions of mobile voice subscribers giving WiMAX an enormous competitive edge.
1905048260Esme Vos, Consultant and Editor of Muniwireless (www.muniwireless.com)
Clearwire will roll out deeply discounted WiMAX service in US urban areas, but will have only limited success in part because of the continuing economic crisis (read: people have no money). WiMAX will not enter the mainstream in developed countries, but developing countries (and sparsely populated areas of developed countries) will see more WiMAX service. Bold prediction for both WiMAX and 4G: in the US, we will see prepaid service because a lot of people have bad credit or no credit at all. These people form a large and rapidly growing segment of the population.
1905051435Cecil Taylor, Telecom Consultant
WiMAX will continue to grow in popularity in 2010 by hitting some clearly defined, achievable targets: More rollouts by service providers such as Clearwire and Yota, introduction of a WiMAX smartphone in the fourth quarter, mixed-mode (3G/WiMAX) phones, and WiMAX Forum objectives such as global roaming and the launch of the Open Retail Certification Program. What needs to happen, though, is a bigger breakthrough. WiMAX indeed is in it for the long haul; I see it becoming the technology of choice in developing countries, for greenfield challengers, and for vertical markets such as public safety and utilities. But it will probably never achieve the highest rank as a consumer choice, since major carriers are committed to LTE. In fact, it’s more likely that companies like Clearwire will include LTE in their technology mix, rather than LTE proponents like Vodafone including WiMAX in their mix. But a sensational breakthrough could propel WiMAX into consumer consciousness and force carriers to re-evaluate their LTE stance, and that is in the realm of eye-popping devices. As long as the focus is on embedding WiMAX in laptops and filling out the portfolio with smartphones, WiMAX will make steady but unspectacular progress. A leap forward requires true groundbreaking in terms of creating devices that take full advantage of high-speed mobile bandwidth in ways that are new and sensational. Devices that, for example, take the gaming or social networking experience to a much higher level would draw eager consumer attention. Unfortunately for carriers like Clearwire, they’re at the mercy of other companies to create such devices. And that is unlikely to happen in 2010, or at any point before LTE stands alongside WiMAX as a deployed 4G technology.
57150358775 Kelvin Lee, Senior General Manager of Green Packet Solutions (www.greenpacket.com)
We are looking forward to a WiMAX boom in 2010. According to WiMAX Forum, it is estimated that WiMAX will have over 800 million subscribers by the end of 2010, which would increase competitiveness among industry player leading to more effective and innovative technology and a reduction in the price of devices. Together with the increase in subscribers, Greenpacket foresees there will be more WiMAX-embedded devices launched this year as the technology reaches maturity and consumers adopt this wireless broadband as part of their lifestyle. More WiMAX embedded devices will lead to WiMAX global roaming which was successfully trialled in 2009 and we believe, is the future. Looking at the challenges facing WiMAX Operators today, improving indoor coverage seems to be a constant battle. While there are different approaches to improving indoor coverage including introducing secondary infrastructure or making antenna improvements, Greenpacket proposes optimal modem placement or complimenting WiMAX with WiFi. This year, Greenpacket, as a leader in the research and development of WiMAX devices and solutions, will continue to look at Operators’ challenges from different perspectives and find innovation solutions. Similarly, we encourage Operators to take up the challenge of increasing revenue, addressing the changing lifestyle needs of subscribers, improving customer relationships and coping with cost demands, from a different perspective!
19050-3175Randall Schwartz, Principal Consultant at Wireless 20/20 (www.wireless2020.net)
We are looking to 3 areas for key development in 2010; handsets and mobile devices, network deployments, and network operators dealing with the upsurge in broadband wireless traffic. Handsets and mobile devices- If the CES show is any indication, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg as far as smartphones and mobile embedded devices for broadband wireless systems. We believe that we will see more dual mode and dual band devices that will support both WiMAX and 3G technologies, enabling much faster speeds for mobile internet usage. We also predict that you will see an Android phone that supports WiMAX by the end of the year, based on Google’s investment in Clearwire.Network deployments- As the capital markets continue to re-fire their engines, you will see a continued accelerations of broadband wireless networks built around the world as the need to provide broadband becomes paramount for any economy wanting to grow in the 21st century. As the only commercially available technology most of these will be WiMAX systems. In the US, Clearwire will continue its successful build out and experience rapid subscriber growth along with its partners. Many other operators, particularly those that will be granted money from the broadband stimulus bill will deploy WiMAX in many outlying areas as the most economic technology available to deliver broadband. We will see a number of trial LTE systems. But for the most part LTE commercial systems are at least 12-24 months away. Upsurge in traffic- As AT&T experienced this year with the clogging of its network as it tried to swallow millions of iPhone users, every other network operator will need to deal with similar traffic problems as the expansion of smartphone usage continues with more and more similar devices coming on their networks. This will increase the pressure on all operators to pull in plans to move to WiMAX and LTE technologies on an accelerated path over the next few years.
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