Towards Lisbon 2.1, Mr Valerio de Molli, The European House - Ambrosetti, Italy

1. Improving European integration and Competitiveness At what speed are EU-27 Member States approaching the Lisbon targets? Valerio De Molli Chairman, Observatory on Europe Managing Partner, The European House-Ambrosetti OBSERVATORY ON EUROPE 2007 Ljubljana, Sept. 28 th , 2007 Towards Lisbon 2.1

2. Mission of the Observatory on Europe … pragmatically contribute to the success of the European Union, providing its political and economic leaders, as well as its citizens, with high quality studies, analyses and proposals in order to help them build a stronger Europe, from economic, social and political standpoints. The Observatory on Europe aims to …

4. Observatory on Europe 2007 – Methodology: The Advisory Board (1/3) The European House - Ambrosetti ADVISORY BOARD and SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE Scientific Committee + The European House - Ambrosetti Project Team June ’06 April ‘07 Final Report Analysis and Recommendations FORUM

9. Speed Profile – Objective The EU Institutions have set out some quantifiable objectives to be reached in order to enhance the competitiveness level and the integration process This profile aims to estimate the speed at which each EU-27 Member State is approaching those institutionally fixed targets

12. Countries’ Abbreviations EU-27 Member States Austria = AT Belgium = BE Bulgaria = BG Cyprus = CY Czech Republic = CZ Denmark= DK Estonia = EE France = FR Finland = FI Germany = DE Greece = EL Hungary = HU Ireland = IE Italy = IT Latvia = LV Lithuania = LT Malta = MT Luxembourg = LU Netherlands = NL Poland = PT Portugal = PT Romania = RO Slovakia = SK Slovenia = SI Spain = ES United Kingdom = UK Sweden = SE Turkey = TR

13. Employment – Total Employment Rate – Overview – Example 1. Total Employment Rate, 2000-2005 (%) (% of persons aged 15 to 64 in employment on the total population of the same age group) Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Eurostat data, 2007 EU Target = 70% Δ 2000/2005 ES EU-27 average EU-27 2005 LV EE SI CY IE FI AT PT SE DK NL UK LT EL IT BG SK HU MT PL BE FR LU CZ DE RO

14. Employment – Total Employment Rate – Speed – Example 1. Total Employment Rate, 2000-2005 (%) Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Eurostat data, 2007 (Speed towards the target: difference between the distance from the target in 2000 and 2005) Countries approaching the target between 2000 and 2005 Countries moving away from the target between 2000 and 2005 Score OK OK OK OK OK Countries already meeting the target 0.0 9.0 2.6 3.6 10.0 10.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 10.0 10.0 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 8.7 5.1 10.0

15. R&D – GERD – Overview – Example (% of GDP) Source: The European House – Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Eurostat data, 2007 EU Target = 3% Δ 2000 * /2005 * 2005 * (*) Italy, United Kingdom, Netherlands and Romania data: 2000-2004 Greece, Sweden data: 1999-2005 Malta data: 2002-2005 4. Research and Development Expenditure (GERD), 2000 * -2005 * EU-27 average EU-27 SE FI AT DK DE FR BE UK NL LU SI SK PL EL BG RO LV CY LT HU ES CZ IE IT PT EE MT

16. R&D – GERD – Speed – Example Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Eurostat data, 2007 (Speed towards the target: difference between the distance from the target in 2000 and 2005) 4. Research and Development Expenditure (GERD), 2000 * -2005 * Countries approaching the target between 2000 and 2005 Countries moving away from the target between 2000 and 2005 OK OK Score 0.0 8.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.1 5.1 10.0 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.4 10.0 8.3 3.9 10.0 OK Countries already meeting the target

17. Education – Attainment Level – Overview – Example 6. Total Youth Education Attainment Level, 2000-2005 (%) (% of the population aged 20 to 24 having completed at least upper secondary education) EU Target = 85% Δ 2000/2005 2005 EU-27 average EU-27 LT SI PL CZ SK FI DE ES LU EL IE SE SK HU FR EE LV DK IT NL BG RO UK CY BE PT MT Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Eurostat data, 2007

18. Education – Attainment Level – Speed – Example Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Eurostat data, 2007 (Speed towards the target: difference between the distance from the target in 2000 and 2005) 6. Total Youth Education Attainment Level, 2000-2005 Countries approaching the target between 2000 and 2005 Countries moving away from the target between 2000 and 2005 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Score 0.0 10.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 10.0 3.3 3.3 10.0 3.4 10.0 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.4 4.2 10.0 OK Countries already meeting the target

19. Internal Market – Transposition Rate – Overview – Example 8. Transposition Deficit of Internal Market Directives April 2001 (EU-15) or June 2004 (EU-10) – June 2006 Δ 2001 or 2004/2006 EU Target = 1.5% (2.2; -38.2) MT 2006 EU-25 average EU-27 CZ LV CY SK HU EE SI LT SE FI ES DE FR IE BE NL UK AT PL DK PT EL LU IT Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Internal Market Scoreboard editions 8, 13 and 15

20. Internal Market – Transposition Rate – Speed – Example (Speed towards the target: difference between the distance from the target in 2001/2004 and 2006) 8. Transposition Deficit of Internal Market Directives April 2001 (EU-15) or June 2004 (EU-10) – June 2006 Countries moving away from the target between 2001 or 2004 and 2006 Countries approaching the target between 2001 or 2004 and 2006 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Source: The European House - Ambrosetti re-elaboration of Internal Market Scoreboard editions 8, 13 and 15 Score 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.5 0.6 10.0 10.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 1.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.6 10.0 10.0 OK Countries already meeting the target

21. Speed Profile – Overview: 2007 League Table (EU-15) = The country has not yet reached the target set by the EU and has moved away from the target in the considered period of time = The country has not yet reached the target set by the EU but has approached the target in the considered period of time = The country has already reached the target set by the EU EMPLOYMENT EDUCATION R&D INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT

22. Speed Profile – Overview: 2007 League Table (EU-10+2) = The country has not yet reached the target set by the EU and has moved away from the target in the considered period of time = The country has not yet reached the target set by the EU but has approached the target in the considered period of time = The country has already reached the target set by the EU EMPLOYMENT EDUCATION R&D INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT n.a. = not available

23. Speed Profile – The Advisory Board “Observatory on Europe” Speedometer 2007 0 1 2 3 9 10 8 7 6 5 4 Speed Profile IT PL-HU CY MT NL CZ-FI ES DE BE RO FR LV LU EL PT BG-SK IE 6.5 8.0 EE LT AT SI UK DK SE 5.5 EU Average = 6.2

25. “ The fundamental aim of European unity must be to preserve our democratic way of life and our traditions of civilisation and freedom, and to strengthen our free national institutions. (...) This economic co-ordination can be sought by a whole series of methods - ranging from a customs union to a lowering of tariffs and to preferential tariffs; from a single confederal bank, established by a monetary convention, to which the various international banks would accede, to a single currency, whether this be for accounting purposes or cash transactions; from the abolition of quotas to a single market. (...) The determining factor in our work, the driving force, must be our political determination to achieve European unity. Economic co-operation is, of course, a matter of compromise between the natural desire for independence of each participant and overriding political aspirations. (...) So it is the political aspiration for unity which must prevail. We must be guided above all by the overriding realisation that it is essential to build a united Europe in order to ensure for ourselves peace, progress, and social justice.” Alcide De Gasperi – speech at the Consultative Assembly of the Council of Europe on September 15, 1952.

26. European nations should become, with time, “a vast common market in which none of the members find restrictions on their individual development, without however creating difficulties for others’ development […]. With the common consent of its populations, Europe is advancing towards a new era, a union […] in which all will bring their contribution to a common venture, whose fruits are destined to expand and render everyone’s lives safer. […] The League was founded for a peace based on rights and guaranteed by justice […] so that every man is given the opportunity to operate in the field in which his energies can best be employed for the community […] for a constant exchange of ideas and acquaintances to the advantage of all countries and for the liberty of trade, that exchange of natural and industrial products without restrictions that, alone, can satisfy the material needs of the populations”. Giuseppe Mazzini – Letter about the constitution of the “Giovine Europa”

27. “ The countries of Europe are not strong enough individually to be able to guarantee prosperity and social development for their peoples. The States of Europe must therefore form a federation or a European entity that would make them into a common economic unit.” “ Continue, continue, there is no future for the people of Europe other than in union.” “ Make men work together show them that beyond their differences and geographical boundaries there lies a common interest.” Jean Monnet

28. Frequently the most difficult decision is choosing the simplest way!

29. Be careful: there is team…

30. … and team!!! A LOT OF PRACTICE IS NEEDED