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CCS major project development lessons from the 
ZeroGen experience 
Webinar – 21 August 2014, 1700 AEST
Professor Andrew Garnett 
Director, Centre for Coal Seam Gas, The University of Queensland 
Professor Andrew Garnett is a newly appointed Professor 
and Director of the University of Queensland CCS Program 
in the UQ Energy Initiatives (he is also Director at the UQ 
Centre for Coal Seam Gas). 
A former Shell and Schlumberger executive, Andrew has 
over 25 years’ worldwide experience with oil majors in 
conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon exploration, 
appraisal and development projects. 
Prior to joining the University of Queensland, Andrew 
consulted widely on unconventional and acid gas 
developments, most notably those with high GHG 
emissions footprints, and worked on the 500MW, 60 MT 
ZeroGen IGCC & CCS Project, as manager for Carbon 
Transport and Storage and ultimately as CEO and Project 
Director.
Martin Oettinger 
Deputy Director, Low Emissions Technology, ACALET 
Martin Oettinger is Deputy Director, Low Emissions 
Technology for ACALET (Coal21 Fund), aimed at 
facilitating the early demonstration of low emissions black 
coal technologies. 
Prior to this he was Principal Manager – Carbon Capture, 
for the Global CCS Institute. Martin has over 30 years’ 
experience in senior technical, leadership and 
management roles for a range of blue-chip Australian and 
international corporations in the power, mineral and 
hydrocarbon processing industries. 
The last 15 years of his career have involved large-scale 
first-of-kind developments, including 6 years in a senior 
technical leadership role with ZeroGen.
QUESTIONS 
 We will collect questions during 
the presentation. 
 Your MC will pose these 
question to the presenter after 
the presentation. 
 Please submit your questions 
directly into the GoToWebinar 
control panel. 
The webinar will start shortly.
CCS Major Project Development 
Lessons from the ZeroGen Experience 
Confidential 
Prof. Andrew Garnett 
UQ Energy Initiative 
Director, CCS 
(former CEO & Project Director ZeroGen) 
Disclaimer: 
The views presented in this presentation do not necessarily represent 
the views of ZeroGen, its former directors, former funders or the 
University of Queensland.
Background & Context 
► ZeroGen Pty Ltd was fully owned by the Queensland State 
Government and sponsored by Federal Government & the Australian 
Coal Association (ACALET). It was established to … 
► “Facilitate the development and accelerated commercial 
deployment of low emissions coal technology to preserve 
Queensland’s competitive position in power generation and to 
ensure the continued mining use and exploration of 
Australian black coal”. 
► Configuration 
► IGCC with CCS 
► 530 MW (gross) 391 MW (net) 
► Capture 
► 65% ~ 2 mln tpa 
► 90% ~ 3 mln tpa 250MW plant at Nakoso constructed by MHI MHI 
Confidential
Location of Project 
Confidential 
Nth Bowen 
Basin 
Surat 
Basin 
Gladstone 
Brisbane 
ZeroGen Tenements 
Emerald 
Miles 
Roma
Evolving Scope 
80MW IGCC 
75% Capture + 
Pipeline 
80MW Demo 
+ Trucking 
3.3 mln t 
84 mln t 
ZG1 ZG2 ZG3,ZG4,ZG5,ZG6 ZG7,ZG8,ZG9,ZG10,ZG11,ZG12 
2000 
1500 
1000 
500 
Confidential 
Design/Build Injection Skid Injection Test 
0 
‘000 T CO2 PA 
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 
DP-1 
9 mln t 
DP2b 
120MW 
DP2a 
3000 
2500 
Scope / 
MW 
Gasif. Power Solvent etc % capture 
100/200 Noell GE/Siemens Selexol 90% 
200 Shell GE 9E Selexol 75% 
47 Shell GE 6B E Sulferox, 
Sulfinol 
75% 
87 Shell GE 6FA Genosorb-sulferox 
75% 
120 Shell GE 
400 MHI MHI 701G2 Selexol 65-90% 
60 mln t 
Clean Coal 
Council Approval 
of 530MW Plant 
Potential Rate 
to be 
Sequestered 
Tenements in 
Surat released 
Flagship 
2015 
Flagships Jun 10 
PFS Report Jul 10 
Alt basins 
studies
IGCC with CCS – PFS Configuration 
Coal 
handling, 
grinding and 
drying 
Confidential 
ASU 
Gasifier & 
Syngas 
Cooler 
Slag, Waste 
Water and 
Solids 
Handling 
CO Sour Shift 
CO+H2O 
-> CO2 + H2 
Water 
Treatment 
Location - B Location - D 
Raw Water 
CO2 
Compression 
& 
Dehydration 
Solexol AGR 
& CO2 
Removal 
Wet Sulphuric 
Acid Plant 
Sulphuric 
Acid Handling 
& Export 
Syngas 
CCGT Power 
Block 
Substation 
Transmission 
Lines 
CO2 Pipeline 
(? Boosters) 
CO2 Storage 
Field 
Location - A 
Location - C 
Location - E 
composition, pressure(t)
And so … lessons ? 
Confidential
AGAIN ! Cost Estimate Growth vs. Engineering Effort 
• RAND corp study – (an alternative look-ahead view) 
3.5 
3.0 
2.5 
2.0 
1.5 
1.0 
0.5 
0.0 
Duke Edwardsport 2006-2012 
0 1 2 3 4 5 
Ration of Estimate to Initial (class 0) estimate. 
Approx. Estimate Class 
• RAND corp study – 1981 (a look back view) 
Ratio of estimate to Final Cost 
Estimating Maturity 
completion 
ZeroGen Scoping to end PFS 
$4.3B 
$6.9B 
1. % of capital cost in new technology compared with the capital cost of the 
entire plant, 
2. complexity of the plant, - the number of continuously linked process units, 
3. the degree of project definition, and 
4. the degree of process definition.
Costs to end PFS 
Cost Group Estimated Cost 
(M AUD) 
% of Total 
COStorage Prior to PFS period (6 wells) $48.0 
2 all configs. PFS period (6 wells) $53.6 73.5% 
Power Plant with 
Engineering $14.71 
Capture 
13.9% 
final config. only Coal Studies & Testing $2.43 
Site Selection $1.87 
Operations & Maintenance Studies $0.26 
Environmental Studies $2.68 1.9% 
Stakeholder Engagement $0.81 0.6% 
Commercial 
Capital & Operating Cost Estimates $0.31 
Studies 
Power Revenue & Trading $0.20 0.9% 
Financial Modelling 
$0.35 
Financing Studies 
$0.40 
Project Management & Controls $4.08 3.0% 
Corporate Administration, Financing Studies, etc $8.6 6.2% 
Total Study Expenditure $138.3
From end PFS – CtG … Capital Cost Estimates 
• Prefeasibility Study Estimated TIC of $6.93 billion, including escalation to 
2016 start-up [cf $4.3 billion in scoping study- Oct 2008 Basis] 
Main Project Cost Area AUD billions % Total 
ZG Owner’s Costs $ 0.30 5% 
Enabling Works $ 0.62 11% 
Power Plant incl. Balance of Plant $ 3.90 68% 
Carbon Transport & Storage (scoping) $0.80 14% 
Operations Readiness & Start-up $0.14 2% 
Total Base Cost Estimate $5.76 100% 
Direct project contingency $ 0.52 9% 
Escalation $0.65 11% 
Total Fully Load Capital Cost $6.93
Reconciling the Cost Increases 
It’s about design maturity, Australian productivity and site specific issues 
[ $4.3 B AUD to $6.29 B AUD incl. contingency] 
May 2010 
Basis 
Escalation 
2016
Decision to discontinue 
In November 2010, ZeroGen management advised closure of the ZeroGen 
commercial scale IGCC with CCS demonstration project due to: 
• very high capital and operating costs which could not be supported by 
anticipated revenue streams; 
• technical risks around the CO2 capture technology and project 
integration; and 
• lack of credible project funding opportunities to achieve financial close. 
• inability of the Northern Denison Trough storage resource to 
accommodate the sustained injection rates or volumes of CO2 required 
by the project; 
• uncertainty as to the timely award of sufficient tenure and funding 
necessary to successfully appraise an alternative CO2 storage resource; 
• AND also advised that lessons be documented (an activity which was concurrent with 
project close-out, surrender of licenses and final members’ voluntary liquidation)
Key Lessons Learned - SUMMARY 
1. Markets & Economics: Industrial–scale in Aust. is simply not economic or 
supportable 
2. Scale: Industrial–scale is not a simple scale–up from demo. scale 
3. Risk Mgmnt: Careful pace of ‘first’ projects is critical to wider deployment. 
4. Risks Mgmnt : Pre–FEED and feasibility risks and costs are heavily 
weighted to the search for storage. 
5. Risks Mgmnt : Storage is a natural resource, a portfolio exploration and 
appraisal approach is needed. 
6. Clear Storage Goals: When defining storage resources requirements it is 
essential to discuss the consequences and trade–offs between injection rate 
and/or cumulative volume objectives. 
7. FEL costs: Very high front–end engineering loading is needed for first–of–a– 
kind.
Key Lesson Learned ... #1 
• Industrial–scale, low emissions coal–fired power projects 
incorporating CCS are not currently economic (in the Queensland, 
Australia context) – costs are well above published costs 
• While limited funds are potentially available from strategic investors such as the coal 
industry and technology providers, the project team for this FOAK project identified a 
large funding gap which could not be closed. 
• Deployment and operating costs for ZeroGen were at (beyond) the upper limit of 
published ranges. 
• FOAK low emissions coal–fired power projects that incorporate CCS have very high 
capital and operating costs and with forecast electricity and carbon prices, will 
generally not be financially viable. 
• Would require significantly heavier & more ongoing gov. financial support than 
previously thought. 
• Low emissions coal–fired power projects must rely on large capital and operating 
subsidies, the majority of which governments will be required to fund. 
• This is exacerbated in Australia, where strong levels of major resource project activity 
in the creates skills shortage adversely impacting labour cost and productivity.
Key Lesson Learned … #2 
• Industrial–scale is not a simple scale–up from demonstration–scale 
• ZeroGen experience: for full comprehension CCS projects should be at commercial 
scale. 
• Only at this scale that significant reality checks can be made regarding schedule, cost 
and performance predictions 
• Only at this scale that the main locally–relevant deployment challenges emerge and can 
be understood. 
• Desk–top analyses proved inadequate. 
• For storage, a significant acquisition and evaluation (drilling, testing and seismic) 
program proved to be necessary and this should have been conducted well before 
significant power plant engineering commenced. 
• Such exploration and appraisal programs are, by their nature, subject to significant 
uncertainty as is the level of funds at risk. 
• The scale of funds available for such programs should be flexible and large enough to 
provide a portfolio chance of success in line with the risk tolerance of the funders.
Key Lesson Learned … #3 
• Measured management of pace of ‘first’ projects is critical to wider 
deployment 
• First CCS projects carry the burden of ‘proof’ for follow–up wider deployment. 
• Risk management, approaches to Environmental Impact Assessments and public 
consultation will need to be conservative and with measured (slow) pace. 
• This requirement runs counter to any urgent push or mandate for an early operational 
start date (or to spend budget in any calendar year !). 
• ZeroGen experience suggests that, at least in the case of IGCC, CCS project 
schedules need to be risk optimised, such that larger investment decisions in plant and 
capture are not taken before achieving sufficient confidence that 
– storage is present ? 
– will perform as required ? 
– is licensable and acceptable ?
Risk Optimised Project Scheduling 
“pre-project” 
Confidential 
DG7 
Appraisal of 
Selected Sites 
IR IR 
IR 
Screening DG1 DG5 Field Development 
Planning 
EIS & 
Approvals 
Develop 
Field 
Project 
Completion 
IR 
IR IR 
Feasibility 
& BED 
Construct 
Inject 
Operate 
Closure 
FEED 
IR 
CO2 
TRANSPORT & 
CAPTURE 
CO2 
STORAGE 
Exploration 
Scoping 
DG2 DG3 
Prefeasibility 
IR 
DG4 
Detailed 
Engineering 
DG6 
IR 
DG8 FULLY INTEGRATED 
CCS DEVELOPMENT 
IR IR 
IR 
Note: the CO2 Transport and Capture Prefeasibility stage 
may also be delayed until after the Storage Appraisal of 
Selected Sites, depending on the residual post-Exploration 
risk and the estimated cost of the Prefeasibility Study.
Key Lesson Learned … #4 
• Pre–FEED and feasibility costs, risks and uncertainties are heavily 
weighted to the search for storage 
• Prior to Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and probably prefeasibility stages for an 
integrated CCS project, the majority of at-risk expenditure lies in finding and appraising 
storage resources to a sufficient level of confidence (in storage security and sustained 
injectivity) to justify a larger investment in plant engineering. 
• In ZeroGen’s case: 
– over 70% of expenditure to end PFS was related to storage (and this was to ultimately establish 
the site was not appropriate) 
– 20% to plant and capture. 
• Forecasts to evaluate an entirely new storage area to a mature stage of 
characterization would have resulted in over 90% of costs, to the end of prefeasibility, 
being storage related. 
• Note especially that commonly available storage “Atlas” type estimates, based on 
pore-space corrected, volumetric estimates should give NO confidence that 
appropriate, rate matched storage is available.
Lessons: Storage pre-project works ? 
• Prior to site-specific characterisation storage uncertainties and risks are high. 
– Are there any storage resources that can perform as required ? 
– If so, then how much and are they developable ?. 
• Exploration plans must include a risk-diverse portfolio of prospects. 
– Risks should be diversified in geology, environmental, technical, 
overlapping-resources, community and public acceptance ... 
• BUT, without more drilling and dynamic testing we simply do not have a handle on how much practical storage 
there is. 
ZeroGen Northern Denison 
Trough 
QLD storage Atlas1 BWW 
“High Prospectivity” Basin 
(Bradshaw et al, 2009) 
1 Bradshaw et al (2009) 
Confidential 
Desktop Studies 
static capacity in 
ZeroGen acreage. 
Results from ZeroGen Drilling, Testing & FDP 
Effective resource 
(technical FDP 
constraints only) 
Contingent 
capacity (limited 
only by FDP 
and project 
lifetime) 
Practical 
Capacity 
(unit cost, 
project and rate 
constrained) 
Aldebaran, 
Freitag & Cath. 
QLD Atlas 
50 – 90 mln t 
Catherine ~ 10 mln t 
Aldebaran, 
Freitag & Cath. 
Zerogen 
80 – 100 mln t Catherine was found to be main practical formation 
Catherine 20 – 30 mln t 
54 mln t 
(takes 120 yrs to fill) 
25 mln t 
(at >$140/t, CTS) 
ZERO tonnes
Key Lesson Learned … #5 
• Storage is a natural resource, a portfolio exploration and appraisal 
approach is needed 
• Exploration and appraisal of potential storage sites requires a portfolio approach to 
create multiple options to allow for some sites which might be found to be ‘unsuitable’. 
• A large amount of expensive data gathering should be expected and while success 
rates might be higher than in the oil and gas exploration sector, delays and escalating 
costs are still likely to be significant with storage exploration. Costs are at-risk. 
• Storage exploration and appraisal data acquisition and study programs should be 
focused on reducing large geotechnical uncertainties (containment & sustained rate). 
• Acquiring data and conducting analyses which can quickly polarise the suitability or 
otherwise of a site are of highest appraisal value and may allow for a rapid reduction in 
the need for further exploration spending. It’s cheaper to seek data which “kills” an area! 
• It is essential to develop clear storage decision criteria, with both confidence levels and 
performance targets, which will define whether subsequent stages of (often larger) 
investment in plant should go ahead. You have to know when to stop!
Key Lessons Learned … #6 
• When defining storage resources requirements it is essential to discuss the 
consequences and trade–offs between injection rate and/or cumulative 
volume objectives 
• Storage resources and field developments which match specific injection rate requirements 
are likely to be significantly different from (unrelated to) those which must only fulfill a 
cumulative volume target. 
• Appraisal of storage site and predictions of ‘reserves’ and performance must be based on 
long term, dynamic well testing (production or injection) and not on static–based derivations 
of capacity as is currently the case for most published estimates. Testing with CO2 is not 
technically necessary (at least not initially). 
• In addition to extended well tests, conceptual, engineered field development plans are 
essential and need to be constrained by real surface and environmental factors and 
potential sub–surface risk features. 
• Development drilling sequences need to be simulated to account for static and 
dynamic uncertainties and show how injection rate might be installed over time 
and might need to be maintained by in–fill drilling or venting or development of and 
transport to other sites.
Key Lessons Learned … #7 
• High front–end (engineering) loading is needed for first–of–a–kind 
• Integrating CO2 separation technologies with power generation is not mature and there 
remain significant technical risks. Integration itself is not mature especially at location. 
• Proponents must recognise that these projects are technically complex and it is not just 
a matter of ‘integrating well understood, proven technologies’. Such statements 
understate the challenges (incl. local context) and set unreasonable stakeholder 
expectations for project development schedule and cost and, potentially, for plant start– 
up performance and availability. 
• Significant further technical development and engineering is required to provide 
confidence in plant design and performance (especially in an electricity market context). 
• Furthermore, if FOAK projects are to be economically viable then, notwithstanding 
currently immature ‘breakthrough developments’, significant developments in 
commercial terms and project financing as well as significant technical improvements 
will be required. 
• Funding arrangements must sustain an organisation through the project reviews and 
decision making processes and hiatuses that are inevitable between phases of a 
project.
Thanks and Acknowledgements 
► This presentation is made possible 
through the willingness of the ZeroGen 
funding bodies to share lessons from the 
project. 
► The ZeroGen funders were: 
► the Queensland Government (DEEDI) 
► Australian Coal Association (ACALET) 
► the Australian Government (DRET). 
► Continued funding of the role of CCS Director at 
UQ has been provided by ACALET 
Confidential
QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION 
Please submit your questions in 
English directly into the 
GoToWebinar control panel. 
The webinar will start shortly.
Please submit any feedback to: webinar@globalccsinstitute.com 
View the report: http://www.uq.edu.au/energy/docs/ZeroGen.pdf

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Webinar: CCS major project development lessons from the ZeroGen experience

  • 1. CCS major project development lessons from the ZeroGen experience Webinar – 21 August 2014, 1700 AEST
  • 2. Professor Andrew Garnett Director, Centre for Coal Seam Gas, The University of Queensland Professor Andrew Garnett is a newly appointed Professor and Director of the University of Queensland CCS Program in the UQ Energy Initiatives (he is also Director at the UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas). A former Shell and Schlumberger executive, Andrew has over 25 years’ worldwide experience with oil majors in conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon exploration, appraisal and development projects. Prior to joining the University of Queensland, Andrew consulted widely on unconventional and acid gas developments, most notably those with high GHG emissions footprints, and worked on the 500MW, 60 MT ZeroGen IGCC & CCS Project, as manager for Carbon Transport and Storage and ultimately as CEO and Project Director.
  • 3. Martin Oettinger Deputy Director, Low Emissions Technology, ACALET Martin Oettinger is Deputy Director, Low Emissions Technology for ACALET (Coal21 Fund), aimed at facilitating the early demonstration of low emissions black coal technologies. Prior to this he was Principal Manager – Carbon Capture, for the Global CCS Institute. Martin has over 30 years’ experience in senior technical, leadership and management roles for a range of blue-chip Australian and international corporations in the power, mineral and hydrocarbon processing industries. The last 15 years of his career have involved large-scale first-of-kind developments, including 6 years in a senior technical leadership role with ZeroGen.
  • 4. QUESTIONS  We will collect questions during the presentation.  Your MC will pose these question to the presenter after the presentation.  Please submit your questions directly into the GoToWebinar control panel. The webinar will start shortly.
  • 5. CCS Major Project Development Lessons from the ZeroGen Experience Confidential Prof. Andrew Garnett UQ Energy Initiative Director, CCS (former CEO & Project Director ZeroGen) Disclaimer: The views presented in this presentation do not necessarily represent the views of ZeroGen, its former directors, former funders or the University of Queensland.
  • 6. Background & Context ► ZeroGen Pty Ltd was fully owned by the Queensland State Government and sponsored by Federal Government & the Australian Coal Association (ACALET). It was established to … ► “Facilitate the development and accelerated commercial deployment of low emissions coal technology to preserve Queensland’s competitive position in power generation and to ensure the continued mining use and exploration of Australian black coal”. ► Configuration ► IGCC with CCS ► 530 MW (gross) 391 MW (net) ► Capture ► 65% ~ 2 mln tpa ► 90% ~ 3 mln tpa 250MW plant at Nakoso constructed by MHI MHI Confidential
  • 7. Location of Project Confidential Nth Bowen Basin Surat Basin Gladstone Brisbane ZeroGen Tenements Emerald Miles Roma
  • 8. Evolving Scope 80MW IGCC 75% Capture + Pipeline 80MW Demo + Trucking 3.3 mln t 84 mln t ZG1 ZG2 ZG3,ZG4,ZG5,ZG6 ZG7,ZG8,ZG9,ZG10,ZG11,ZG12 2000 1500 1000 500 Confidential Design/Build Injection Skid Injection Test 0 ‘000 T CO2 PA 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 DP-1 9 mln t DP2b 120MW DP2a 3000 2500 Scope / MW Gasif. Power Solvent etc % capture 100/200 Noell GE/Siemens Selexol 90% 200 Shell GE 9E Selexol 75% 47 Shell GE 6B E Sulferox, Sulfinol 75% 87 Shell GE 6FA Genosorb-sulferox 75% 120 Shell GE 400 MHI MHI 701G2 Selexol 65-90% 60 mln t Clean Coal Council Approval of 530MW Plant Potential Rate to be Sequestered Tenements in Surat released Flagship 2015 Flagships Jun 10 PFS Report Jul 10 Alt basins studies
  • 9. IGCC with CCS – PFS Configuration Coal handling, grinding and drying Confidential ASU Gasifier & Syngas Cooler Slag, Waste Water and Solids Handling CO Sour Shift CO+H2O -> CO2 + H2 Water Treatment Location - B Location - D Raw Water CO2 Compression & Dehydration Solexol AGR & CO2 Removal Wet Sulphuric Acid Plant Sulphuric Acid Handling & Export Syngas CCGT Power Block Substation Transmission Lines CO2 Pipeline (? Boosters) CO2 Storage Field Location - A Location - C Location - E composition, pressure(t)
  • 10. And so … lessons ? Confidential
  • 11. AGAIN ! Cost Estimate Growth vs. Engineering Effort • RAND corp study – (an alternative look-ahead view) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Duke Edwardsport 2006-2012 0 1 2 3 4 5 Ration of Estimate to Initial (class 0) estimate. Approx. Estimate Class • RAND corp study – 1981 (a look back view) Ratio of estimate to Final Cost Estimating Maturity completion ZeroGen Scoping to end PFS $4.3B $6.9B 1. % of capital cost in new technology compared with the capital cost of the entire plant, 2. complexity of the plant, - the number of continuously linked process units, 3. the degree of project definition, and 4. the degree of process definition.
  • 12. Costs to end PFS Cost Group Estimated Cost (M AUD) % of Total COStorage Prior to PFS period (6 wells) $48.0 2 all configs. PFS period (6 wells) $53.6 73.5% Power Plant with Engineering $14.71 Capture 13.9% final config. only Coal Studies & Testing $2.43 Site Selection $1.87 Operations & Maintenance Studies $0.26 Environmental Studies $2.68 1.9% Stakeholder Engagement $0.81 0.6% Commercial Capital & Operating Cost Estimates $0.31 Studies Power Revenue & Trading $0.20 0.9% Financial Modelling $0.35 Financing Studies $0.40 Project Management & Controls $4.08 3.0% Corporate Administration, Financing Studies, etc $8.6 6.2% Total Study Expenditure $138.3
  • 13. From end PFS – CtG … Capital Cost Estimates • Prefeasibility Study Estimated TIC of $6.93 billion, including escalation to 2016 start-up [cf $4.3 billion in scoping study- Oct 2008 Basis] Main Project Cost Area AUD billions % Total ZG Owner’s Costs $ 0.30 5% Enabling Works $ 0.62 11% Power Plant incl. Balance of Plant $ 3.90 68% Carbon Transport & Storage (scoping) $0.80 14% Operations Readiness & Start-up $0.14 2% Total Base Cost Estimate $5.76 100% Direct project contingency $ 0.52 9% Escalation $0.65 11% Total Fully Load Capital Cost $6.93
  • 14. Reconciling the Cost Increases It’s about design maturity, Australian productivity and site specific issues [ $4.3 B AUD to $6.29 B AUD incl. contingency] May 2010 Basis Escalation 2016
  • 15. Decision to discontinue In November 2010, ZeroGen management advised closure of the ZeroGen commercial scale IGCC with CCS demonstration project due to: • very high capital and operating costs which could not be supported by anticipated revenue streams; • technical risks around the CO2 capture technology and project integration; and • lack of credible project funding opportunities to achieve financial close. • inability of the Northern Denison Trough storage resource to accommodate the sustained injection rates or volumes of CO2 required by the project; • uncertainty as to the timely award of sufficient tenure and funding necessary to successfully appraise an alternative CO2 storage resource; • AND also advised that lessons be documented (an activity which was concurrent with project close-out, surrender of licenses and final members’ voluntary liquidation)
  • 16. Key Lessons Learned - SUMMARY 1. Markets & Economics: Industrial–scale in Aust. is simply not economic or supportable 2. Scale: Industrial–scale is not a simple scale–up from demo. scale 3. Risk Mgmnt: Careful pace of ‘first’ projects is critical to wider deployment. 4. Risks Mgmnt : Pre–FEED and feasibility risks and costs are heavily weighted to the search for storage. 5. Risks Mgmnt : Storage is a natural resource, a portfolio exploration and appraisal approach is needed. 6. Clear Storage Goals: When defining storage resources requirements it is essential to discuss the consequences and trade–offs between injection rate and/or cumulative volume objectives. 7. FEL costs: Very high front–end engineering loading is needed for first–of–a– kind.
  • 17. Key Lesson Learned ... #1 • Industrial–scale, low emissions coal–fired power projects incorporating CCS are not currently economic (in the Queensland, Australia context) – costs are well above published costs • While limited funds are potentially available from strategic investors such as the coal industry and technology providers, the project team for this FOAK project identified a large funding gap which could not be closed. • Deployment and operating costs for ZeroGen were at (beyond) the upper limit of published ranges. • FOAK low emissions coal–fired power projects that incorporate CCS have very high capital and operating costs and with forecast electricity and carbon prices, will generally not be financially viable. • Would require significantly heavier & more ongoing gov. financial support than previously thought. • Low emissions coal–fired power projects must rely on large capital and operating subsidies, the majority of which governments will be required to fund. • This is exacerbated in Australia, where strong levels of major resource project activity in the creates skills shortage adversely impacting labour cost and productivity.
  • 18. Key Lesson Learned … #2 • Industrial–scale is not a simple scale–up from demonstration–scale • ZeroGen experience: for full comprehension CCS projects should be at commercial scale. • Only at this scale that significant reality checks can be made regarding schedule, cost and performance predictions • Only at this scale that the main locally–relevant deployment challenges emerge and can be understood. • Desk–top analyses proved inadequate. • For storage, a significant acquisition and evaluation (drilling, testing and seismic) program proved to be necessary and this should have been conducted well before significant power plant engineering commenced. • Such exploration and appraisal programs are, by their nature, subject to significant uncertainty as is the level of funds at risk. • The scale of funds available for such programs should be flexible and large enough to provide a portfolio chance of success in line with the risk tolerance of the funders.
  • 19. Key Lesson Learned … #3 • Measured management of pace of ‘first’ projects is critical to wider deployment • First CCS projects carry the burden of ‘proof’ for follow–up wider deployment. • Risk management, approaches to Environmental Impact Assessments and public consultation will need to be conservative and with measured (slow) pace. • This requirement runs counter to any urgent push or mandate for an early operational start date (or to spend budget in any calendar year !). • ZeroGen experience suggests that, at least in the case of IGCC, CCS project schedules need to be risk optimised, such that larger investment decisions in plant and capture are not taken before achieving sufficient confidence that – storage is present ? – will perform as required ? – is licensable and acceptable ?
  • 20. Risk Optimised Project Scheduling “pre-project” Confidential DG7 Appraisal of Selected Sites IR IR IR Screening DG1 DG5 Field Development Planning EIS & Approvals Develop Field Project Completion IR IR IR Feasibility & BED Construct Inject Operate Closure FEED IR CO2 TRANSPORT & CAPTURE CO2 STORAGE Exploration Scoping DG2 DG3 Prefeasibility IR DG4 Detailed Engineering DG6 IR DG8 FULLY INTEGRATED CCS DEVELOPMENT IR IR IR Note: the CO2 Transport and Capture Prefeasibility stage may also be delayed until after the Storage Appraisal of Selected Sites, depending on the residual post-Exploration risk and the estimated cost of the Prefeasibility Study.
  • 21. Key Lesson Learned … #4 • Pre–FEED and feasibility costs, risks and uncertainties are heavily weighted to the search for storage • Prior to Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and probably prefeasibility stages for an integrated CCS project, the majority of at-risk expenditure lies in finding and appraising storage resources to a sufficient level of confidence (in storage security and sustained injectivity) to justify a larger investment in plant engineering. • In ZeroGen’s case: – over 70% of expenditure to end PFS was related to storage (and this was to ultimately establish the site was not appropriate) – 20% to plant and capture. • Forecasts to evaluate an entirely new storage area to a mature stage of characterization would have resulted in over 90% of costs, to the end of prefeasibility, being storage related. • Note especially that commonly available storage “Atlas” type estimates, based on pore-space corrected, volumetric estimates should give NO confidence that appropriate, rate matched storage is available.
  • 22. Lessons: Storage pre-project works ? • Prior to site-specific characterisation storage uncertainties and risks are high. – Are there any storage resources that can perform as required ? – If so, then how much and are they developable ?. • Exploration plans must include a risk-diverse portfolio of prospects. – Risks should be diversified in geology, environmental, technical, overlapping-resources, community and public acceptance ... • BUT, without more drilling and dynamic testing we simply do not have a handle on how much practical storage there is. ZeroGen Northern Denison Trough QLD storage Atlas1 BWW “High Prospectivity” Basin (Bradshaw et al, 2009) 1 Bradshaw et al (2009) Confidential Desktop Studies static capacity in ZeroGen acreage. Results from ZeroGen Drilling, Testing & FDP Effective resource (technical FDP constraints only) Contingent capacity (limited only by FDP and project lifetime) Practical Capacity (unit cost, project and rate constrained) Aldebaran, Freitag & Cath. QLD Atlas 50 – 90 mln t Catherine ~ 10 mln t Aldebaran, Freitag & Cath. Zerogen 80 – 100 mln t Catherine was found to be main practical formation Catherine 20 – 30 mln t 54 mln t (takes 120 yrs to fill) 25 mln t (at >$140/t, CTS) ZERO tonnes
  • 23. Key Lesson Learned … #5 • Storage is a natural resource, a portfolio exploration and appraisal approach is needed • Exploration and appraisal of potential storage sites requires a portfolio approach to create multiple options to allow for some sites which might be found to be ‘unsuitable’. • A large amount of expensive data gathering should be expected and while success rates might be higher than in the oil and gas exploration sector, delays and escalating costs are still likely to be significant with storage exploration. Costs are at-risk. • Storage exploration and appraisal data acquisition and study programs should be focused on reducing large geotechnical uncertainties (containment & sustained rate). • Acquiring data and conducting analyses which can quickly polarise the suitability or otherwise of a site are of highest appraisal value and may allow for a rapid reduction in the need for further exploration spending. It’s cheaper to seek data which “kills” an area! • It is essential to develop clear storage decision criteria, with both confidence levels and performance targets, which will define whether subsequent stages of (often larger) investment in plant should go ahead. You have to know when to stop!
  • 24. Key Lessons Learned … #6 • When defining storage resources requirements it is essential to discuss the consequences and trade–offs between injection rate and/or cumulative volume objectives • Storage resources and field developments which match specific injection rate requirements are likely to be significantly different from (unrelated to) those which must only fulfill a cumulative volume target. • Appraisal of storage site and predictions of ‘reserves’ and performance must be based on long term, dynamic well testing (production or injection) and not on static–based derivations of capacity as is currently the case for most published estimates. Testing with CO2 is not technically necessary (at least not initially). • In addition to extended well tests, conceptual, engineered field development plans are essential and need to be constrained by real surface and environmental factors and potential sub–surface risk features. • Development drilling sequences need to be simulated to account for static and dynamic uncertainties and show how injection rate might be installed over time and might need to be maintained by in–fill drilling or venting or development of and transport to other sites.
  • 25. Key Lessons Learned … #7 • High front–end (engineering) loading is needed for first–of–a–kind • Integrating CO2 separation technologies with power generation is not mature and there remain significant technical risks. Integration itself is not mature especially at location. • Proponents must recognise that these projects are technically complex and it is not just a matter of ‘integrating well understood, proven technologies’. Such statements understate the challenges (incl. local context) and set unreasonable stakeholder expectations for project development schedule and cost and, potentially, for plant start– up performance and availability. • Significant further technical development and engineering is required to provide confidence in plant design and performance (especially in an electricity market context). • Furthermore, if FOAK projects are to be economically viable then, notwithstanding currently immature ‘breakthrough developments’, significant developments in commercial terms and project financing as well as significant technical improvements will be required. • Funding arrangements must sustain an organisation through the project reviews and decision making processes and hiatuses that are inevitable between phases of a project.
  • 26. Thanks and Acknowledgements ► This presentation is made possible through the willingness of the ZeroGen funding bodies to share lessons from the project. ► The ZeroGen funders were: ► the Queensland Government (DEEDI) ► Australian Coal Association (ACALET) ► the Australian Government (DRET). ► Continued funding of the role of CCS Director at UQ has been provided by ACALET Confidential
  • 27. QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION Please submit your questions in English directly into the GoToWebinar control panel. The webinar will start shortly.
  • 28. Please submit any feedback to: webinar@globalccsinstitute.com View the report: http://www.uq.edu.au/energy/docs/ZeroGen.pdf