2. Key Points
• Climate Protection requires a budget limit
on cumulative GHG emissions.
• Efficiency, Renewable Electric, Biofuels,
Electrification/FCV, CCS, Nuclear(?) all
play a role.
• Each has challenges at scale.
• Preserving climate budget options requires
immediate change in focus, especially for
coal.
7. Cumulative CO2 to 2035: BAU v 450
1000
900
800
Billion Metric tonnes
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Coal BAU Oil BAU Gas BAU Total 450 Case
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
8. Lock-in from Coal Power
• Large budget lock-in from:
– existing coal plants
– and new planned coal plants
9. New Coal Build 2012-2035: CPS (1709 GW)
Russia Rest World
42 Africa 80
3% 72 5%
4%
EU
70
4%
China
Rest Asia 797
245 47%
14%
USA
57
3%
India
345
20%
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
10. World Coal Power Capacity 2010 (1649 GW)
Poland
2%
Korea Rest of World
2% 15%
Australia
2% China
South
Africa 41%
2%
Japan
3%
Russia
3% India
Germany 6%
3%
United States
21%
Source: IEA, CCS Retrofit Paper, 2012; WEO 2012
11. New Coal Plant CO2 is 25%
Greater Than From All Pre-2000 Coal Use
74% of
remaining
budget for
450 ppm
700
654
600
500 524
400 Gt CO2
300
200
100
-
Total Coal CO2 Projected New Coal Plant
1751-2000 Lifetime CO2
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2012
13. Coal Power v. Carbon Budget
119% of
1049 Budget
1200
1000
new coal: 654 Gt
884
800
Gt CO2
600
400
existing coal: 396 Gt
200
0
Based on IEA, WEO 2012
14. Carbon/Energy Impacts of CCS
• Cut CO2 from new fossil sources
• Cut CO2 from existing sources pre-
retirement
• Create space in the budget for easier
transition away from oil.
• Reduce bio-energy pressure on
forested lands
15. New Coal Plant CO2 is 25%
Greater Than From All Pre-2000 Coal Use
74% of
remaining
budget for
450 ppm
700
654
600
500 524
400 Gt CO2
300
200
100
-
Total Coal CO2 Projected New Coal Plant
1751-2000 Lifetime CO2
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2012
16. Cutting CO2 Lock-in from New Coal
700
1709 GW
600 without
CCS
500
400 Gt CO2
391 GW
with CCS
300
654
431 GW
22
200 524 without
CCS
100 165
-
Total Coal CO2 New Coal Plant Lifetime CO2
1751-2000 New Coal Plant CPS Case
Lifetime CO2 450 Cas
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
19. Prime CCS Retrofits by Country
USA, 20
India, 24
China, 481
Japan, 25
Korea, 21
Source: IEA CCS Retrofit Paper, 2012
20. Cumulative CO2 to 2035: BAU v 450
1000
900
800
Billion Metric tonnes
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Coal BAU Oil BAU Gas BAU Total 450 Case
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
21. Fossil Budget Competition
Billion tonnes CO2
Current Policies (889 Gt) 450 Case (607 Gt)
191
22%
403
45% 157
205
26%
34%
296
33%
245
40%
Coal Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
25. U.S. Carbon Pollution Standard
• Proposed New Source Performance
Standard” for CO2 from new fossil fuel
fired power plants
• First national carbon pollution standard for
stationary sources
• Builds on “endangerment finding” following
Mass v. EPA Supreme Court decision
26. What U.S. CPS Requires
• 1000 lbs/MWh standard for new fossil fuel
fired plants (NGCC and coal)
• Achievable by natural gas combined cycle
plants
• Also achievable by coal plants with carbon
capture and storage (CCS) – 30 year
compliance option
• EPA projects no added cost because
forecasts show no new coal plants
27. Standards for Existing Plants
• 2.4 billion tons CO2 from existing plants
each year
• Clean Air Act requires CO2 standards for
existing plants (Section 111(d))
• EPA sets performance standards, states
implement through SIPs
• Flexible compliance options
28. Potential Reductions from Power Sector
…Twice What’s Being Achieved by Clean Car Standards
1,000
900 Million
CO2 Emissions Reductions (million short tons)
900
800
700
600
MDV and HDV
500 Million
Standards
500
400
MDV and HDV
300 Standards
LDV Standard
200
100 LDV Standard
0
2020 - EPA Vehicle 2025 - EPA Vehicle 2020 - NRDC 2025 - NRDC
Standards Standards Recommended 111(d) Recommended 111(d)
Existing Power Plant Existing Power Plant
Standards Standards
Note: The reductions shown are from BAU in the forecast years.
Sources: EPA/NHTSA rule documents at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm and NRDC estimates.
28
29. BENEFITS SWAMP COSTS
60,000
50,000
Million 2010$ 40,000
COSTS BENEFITS
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Compliance Costs Low Estimate High Estimate
2020 2020
Compliance Costs SO2 and NOX Benefits CO2 Benefits
NOTES
• Benefits from SO2 and NOX reductions estimated by extensively peer-reviewed dispersion model developed by Abt Associates to estimate health
impacts from power plants for EPA. Lower and Higher estimates based on different statistical relationships between pollution concentrations and
health effects that are used by EPA. Value of statistical lives lost is the primary component of the monetary value of the estimated benefits.
• Lower carbon reduction benefit calculated with Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) of $26 per ton in 2020, reflecting the Administration’s current estimate,
using a 3% discount rate. Higher carbon benefit calculated with SCC of $59 per ton in 2010, reflecting a discount rate of 2%. OMB recommends using
a discount rate of 1-3% for inter-generational issues such as climate change. At a discount rate of 1%, the SCC is $254 per ton in 2010.
30. ENGO Network
Recommendations for Canada
• Adopt higher price on carbon and/or
mandate CCS on new facilities.
• Adopt strong, protective standards
throughout Canada regulating
sequestration facilities.
31. ENGO Recommendations for
Developing Countries
• Use UNFCCC to agree on mechanism to
provide:
– financial aid for CCS projects
– Tech transfer
– Support for mapping of storage formations
– Market mechanisms to support CCS
– Capacity building for safe and effective
regulation.
• MEF: Strengthen Technology Action Plan
32. Thank You
David Hawkins
Natural Resources Defense Council
www.nrdc.org
dhawkins@nrdc.org
Hinweis der Redaktion
This slide shows the road we are onThe road we could be on with some fairly modest effortAnd the road we should be on if we are going to do right by our kids and grandkids.Note: this chart is from WEO 2011; WEO 2012 is only slightly different.
The striking thing about these budgets is that they are much smaller than existing fossil-fuel reserves. I underscore reserves, not all conceivable recoverable resources. These are the fossil fuel amounts that are carried on companies’ books today and form an important part of companies’ stock value. This should be a wake up call for company management, investors, and any planners depending on these reserves.
More than a fifth of world coal capacity is less than 5 years old; more than a third is less than 10 and more than half is less than 20.
Lifetime CO2 from existing and new coal plants (assuming 60 year life and 75% capacity factor) is 1049 Gt CO2.About 396 Gt from existing plants and 654 Gt from new plants projected by IEA to be built between 2012-2035 under the Current Policies Case.
About 3700 TWh of CCS generation in the 450 case in 2035 under the 450 case.Total coal generation in 450 case is 4364; so the CCS generation amounts to 85% of coal generation.Total fossil generation in 450 case is 10487. So CCS generation amounts to 35% of total fossil generation.391 GW of 822 GW of coal additions use CCS180 GW of 1138 GW of gas additions use CCS
The next rule will address CO2. It is limited to new units.
EPA has not proposed a standard for existing plants but one is needed and one is feasible. CAA requires any such rule to be justified as technically achievable and economically reasonable.