1. HUMAN
DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
SHS Environmental Science

2. DEFINING TERMS
Birth Rate=The number of live births per 1000 per year

3. DEFINING TERMS
Birth Rate=The number of live births per 1000 per year
Death Rate=The number of deaths per 1000 per year

4. DEFINING TERMS
Birth Rate=The number of live births per 1000 per year
Death Rate=The number of deaths per 1000 per year
Total Fertility Rate=Average number of children a
woman will bear in her lifetime

5. DEFINING TERMS
Birth Rate=The number of live births per 1000 per year
Death Rate=The number of deaths per 1000 per year
Total Fertility Rate=Average number of children a
woman will bear in her lifetime
Infant Mortality Rate=Number of children that die
before the age of one year per 1000 live births per
year

6. DEFINING TERMS
MDC=More Developed Countries: First World Countries (us)

7. DEFINING TERMS
MDC=More Developed Countries: First World Countries (us)
LDC=Less Developed Countries: Third World Countries
(examples?)

8. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
More Developed Countries have always followed the same
growth curve. It’s called Human Demographic
Transition.

9. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
More Developed Countries have always followed the same
growth curve. It’s called Human Demographic
Transition.
The curve
should look
familiar.

10. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
More Developed Countries have always followed the same
growth curve. It’s called Human Demographic
Transition.
The curve
should look
Population
familiar.
Time

11. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE I
Phase I: Pre-Industrial Phase-The birth rate is high to counter
act the high death rate. Population is in relative equilibrium.
Phase I
Population
Time

12. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE I
Phase I: Pre-Industrial Phase-The birth rate is high to counter
act the high death rate. Population is in relative equilibrium.
Phase I
Population
Time

13. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE I
Phase I: Pre-Industrial Phase-The birth rate is high to counter
act the high death rate. Population is in relative equilibrium.
Children are
important. They Phase I
are free labor for
farm work.
Population
They are Social
Security. They
take care of
parents in their
old age.
Time

14. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE II
Phase II: Transitional Phase-People are getting access to clean
water and medicine so infant mortality and death rate go down
BUT people aren’t ready to give up free labor so they continue to
have children. Phase I Phase II
Population
Time

15. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE II
Phase II: Transitional Phase-People are getting access to clean
water and medicine so infant mortality and death rate go down
BUT people aren’t ready to give up free labor so they continue to
have children. Phase I Phase II
Population
Time

16. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE II
Phase II: Transitional Phase-People are getting access to clean
water and medicine so infant mortality and death rate go down
BUT people aren’t ready to give up free labor so they continue to
have children. Phase I Phase II
Consequently,
population
Population
grows
exponentially.
Children are
unnecessary, but
parents are
making good $$. Time

17. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE III
Phase III: Industrial Phase-People are making so much money
that they can save for retirement and realize they don’t need kids to
care for them in their old age. Why? (activity)
Phase I Phase II Phase
III
Population
Time

18. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE III
Phase III: Industrial Phase-People are making so much money
that they can save for retirement and realize they don’t need kids to
care for them in their old age. Why? (activity)
Result: Parents Phase I Phase II Phase
don’t need kids. III
They still want
Population
them, but often
just a few.
Result: Birth
rate and death
rate become
equal. Time

19. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE III
Phase III: Industrial Phase-People are making so much money
that they can save for retirement and realize they don’t need kids to
care for them in their old age. Why? (activity)
Result: Parents Phase I Phase II Phase
don’t need kids. III
They still want
Population
them, but often
just a few.
Result: Birth
rate and death
rate become
equal. Time

20. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE III
Phase III: Industrial Phase-People are making so much money
that they can save for retirement and realize they don’t need kids to
care for them in their old age. Why?
Phase I Phase II Phase
III
Population
Time

21. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE III
Phase III: Industrial Phase-People are making so much money
that they can save for retirement and realize they don’t need kids to
care for them in their old age. Why?
Phase I Phase II Phase
Note that
population III
growth is zero,
Population
just like in
Phase I,
but now
population is
high!
Time

22. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE IV
Phase IV: Post-Industrial Phase-People have grown so wealthy
that they decide they want to travel, buy big houses, etc. They have
zero or only one child.
Phase I Phase II Phase Phase
III IV
Population
Time

23. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE IV
Phase IV: Post-Industrial Phase-People have grown so wealthy
that they decide they want to travel, buy big houses, etc. They have
zero or only one child.
Result: Death Phase I Phase II Phase Phase
rate is higher III IV
than birth rate
Population
so population
declines.
Time

24. HUMAN DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION: PHASE IV
Phase IV: Post-Industrial Phase-People have grown so wealthy
that they decide they want to travel, buy big houses, etc. They have
zero or only one child.
Result: Death Phase I Phase II Phase Phase
rate is higher III IV
than birth rate
Population
so population
declines.
Time

25. A DECLINING POPULATION
What’s the result of a declining population in an industrial
country?
Phase I Phase II Phase Phase
III IV
Population
Time

26. A DECLINING POPULATION
What’s the result of a declining population in an industrial
country?
Too few workers
to fill jobs. Phase I Phase II Phase Phase
Productivity in III IV
factories goes
Population
down.
Some countries
have negative
unemployment
rates.
Time

27. PHASE IV PROBLEMS
In Sweden, for example, Volvo started suffering and had to sell
out to Chrysler (which turned out to be tragic!).
They tried to import workers from Brazil to compensate.
From the tropics (Brazil) to Sweden where it’s dark at 2
p.m. and cold 10 months a year. How do you think this
worked out?
In the U.S. as we approach Phase IV we have to “import”
people from Mexico to fill jobs.
We also outsource jobs to countries where populations are high
and labor is cheap.