HOW TO DO AI IN 2013 from Roadmap 2012

HOW TO DO AI IN 2013

SPEAKER: Dr. Joseph Turian
President, MetaOptimize
Analyst, GigaOM Pro

Thursday, November 8, 12

how to do “AI” in
2013 Joseph Turian, Ph.D.
MetaOptimize, GigaOm Pro
@turian


the ghosts of
work
past, future, and
present

Past who makes
computer, n., 1613: A person
calculations.


Present


Future


The Turing Test (1950)

7


The Golden Years of AI (1956-1974)

1965, H.A. Simon: “machines will be capable,
within 20 years,
of doing any work a man can do.”

1970, Minsky: “In from 3-8 years we will have
a machine with the general intelligence
of an average human being.”

8


The AI winter


A new dawn for AI?


Deep Machine Learning

the Google “cat faces” paper
11


a trick to do “AI”


Crowd
Labor

Crowd-Labor
applications


Common applications

Data entry
Categorization
Content generation
...


Case study: Data entry

Workplace safety company
courtesy of CloudFactory

In-house approach

Costly training, high
Complicated,
turnover
undocumented business
process
Can’t scale to meet
Unreliable results
demand


Crowd-Labor approach

Virtual assembly line Small microtasks with no
Multiple eyes per task training required

Reliable results Scales to meet demand


courtesy of CloudFactory

Data Entry

Crowd-labor with auto
Temp workers
QA
86% accuracy
98% accuracy

source: Humanoid (acquired by CloudFactory)


Sentiment Analysis

Automatic
Crowd-Labor
Error-prone
Accurate
Coarse-grained (pos or Fine-grained
neg)


“Did they think that my product is

cool?”
“Did they write that my car is fast?”
https://crowdﬂower.com/senti

Input Crowd-Labor
Business
Process
for Sentiment
medium/low
high conﬁdence
conﬁdence

Output


Input Crowd-Labor
Business
Process
for Sentiment
medium/low
high conﬁdence
conﬁdence ???

Output


courtesy of CrowdSource

Input

medium/low
high conﬁdence
conﬁdence

Output


Input
training
data

medium/low
high conﬁdence
conﬁdence

Output


Input
training
data AI Virtuous
Cycle
medium/low
high conﬁdence
conﬁdence

Output


Better grammar = $$$


“We noticed that

demand for a hotel increases if the reviews on
TripAdvisor and Travelocity are well-written, without
spelling errors;

this holds no matter if the review is positive or
negative.”
Source: Panos Ipeirotis


“we’ll just implement a grammar checker to do it”


“we’ll hire interns and outsourcers to do it”


“let’s hire the crowd to
do it”


Revenue lift > $1M


what we want
vs.
what we have

intelligent applications we want
vs.
intelligent applications we have


intelligent applications we want

Applications


intelligent applications we have

commoditized Enterprise
Crowd-Labor Crowd-Labor
Apps Apps

Cloud-computing
vs.
Crowd-Labor


Cloud-Computing vs Crowd-
OCR,
Web apps, APIs Application
sentiment, ...

Dispatch work,
Deploy app
Platform ensure quality
reliably results

Provision Provision
processing, Infrastructure workers
storage, ... from the crowd

Crowd-Labor stack
Application Chirpsy, CastingWords, uTest, ...

Platform CrowdFlower, MobileWorks, CCS, ...

Infrastructure Mechanical Turk, Elance, ...


the Crowd-Labor stack we want
vs.
the Crowd-Labor stack we
have


the Cloud-computing stack we
Application Abundant

Platform Robust

Infrastructure Unreliable hardware


the Crowd-Labor stack we want
Application Abundant

Platform Robust

Infrastructure Unreliable workers


the Crowd-Labor stack we have
Commoditized Enterprise
Few Application Some

Immature Platform Not generic

Unreliable Infrastructure Unreliable


Crowd-Labor applications in
Application Chirpsy,
CastingWords,
uTest, Senti,
Platform Expensify, etc.

Infrastructure


robust Crowd-Labor
platforms?


robust Crowd-Labor
platforms?
curation vs. technology


robust Crowd-Labor platforms?
curation technology
Application Application

Platform Platform auto-QA

reliabl
e unrelia
worker Infrastructure Infrastructure ble
s workers

robust Crowd-Labor platforms?
curation technology
Application Application

Platform Platform

Infrastructure Infrastructure


Crowd-Labor
enabling new
applications


0:23 male and female
companions inspect
socks

“What % of shoppers spend
over 30 sec in my store?
Where do they browse?
What do they buy?”


what Crowd-Labor applications

can you imagine?

Crowd-Labor
1. game-changing “AI” applications
2. enterprise-ready in 2012
3. ubiquitous soon...

Joseph Turian, Ph.D.
@turian


HOW TO DO AI IN 2013 from Roadmap 2012

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