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The Voice of Democracy - Politics report 2013
1. The Voice of
Democracy
An analysis of online political conversations September, October, and November 2013
2. Introduction
•
As per a recent survey by Google, social media is likely to have an impact on close to 30
percent seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014.
•
160 out of India’s 543 Parliament constituencies are likely to be influenced by social media;
making Facebook and Twitter India’s newest voting bloc.
•
Here are some numbers in online India’s growth story which reveal that though the level of
impact social media can have on the outcome of elections is debatable; the expectations are
not completely unfounded.
–
–
–
Year-on-Year growth in the number of internet users in India - 40%
Number of internet users in urban India – 137 million
Number of internet users in rural India – 68 million
•
Realizing that they cannot afford to ignore the Indians frequenting the World Wide Web,
politicians and political parties have joined the fray in creating a buzz online.
•
This report delves into insights that are a result of curating online conversations around
politicians and political parties; and carrying out a detailed analysis using social media
monitoring tools.
http://www.iamai.in/PRelease_detail.aspx?nid=3222&NMonth=11&NYear=2013,
http://www.exchange4media.com/53235_facebook-twitter-users-the-nations-newest-voting-bloc.html,
3. Overview of Content
•
State-wise preference levels for political parties
•
Numerical and sentiment analysis of conversations around top political parties and politicians
in the country
•
Topics and issues contributing significantly to online conversations and creating a buzz on
Facebook and Twitter
•
Likely candidate for the post of PM, according to what people are saying online
•
Words associated with top political parties, leaders, and the Parliament
•
Most popular politicians online (based on people’s online conversations)
•
Most active politicians online (based on politicians’ activities online)
This report aims to analyze the existing online conversations about politics and politicians in India; and
thus ‘Top’ political parties, leaders, issues, and buzz words refers to those that have been arrived at by
analyzing online conversations throughout the defined time period (September 2013 to November
2013) and selecting the entities with the maximum online mentions in terms of numbers.
4. Total Mentions – 4.97 lakhs
Trinamool, 1.20%
Samajwadi
party, 1.90%
NCP, 1.20%
JD U, 1.30%
AAP, 18.30%
YSR
Congress, 1.20%
RJD, 0.50%
Congress, 39.20%
BJP, 35.20%
Here are the total number of mentions for different political parties as they gear up for the 2014 elections.
5. State-wise Levels of Political Conversations
•
An analysis of political conversations across India shows that the maximum number of online
political conversations come from users in Maharashtra and Delhi.
•
Karnataka and Gujarat show medium levels of political conversations while the number of
political conversations from the rest of India is comparatively low.
•
We have further analyzed the positive and negative sentiment of political conversations in
these regions across the top three political parties.
7. Online Mentions for Congress
September
October
November
Low
Medium
High
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
24.2%
19.7%
13%
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
24.7%
18.9%
12.2%
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
27.2%
25.2%
9.8%
Positive Sentiment
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
24.2%
19.7%
12.5%
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
23.6%
20.1%
13.0%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
25.7%
23.2%
11%
Negative Sentiment
•Positive conversations for Congress have increased by 12.39% and 27.91% in Maharashtra and Delhi respectively; and
decreased by 24% in Karnataka.
•The negative conversations have increased by 30.45% in Delhi and decreased by 4.13% and 12% in Maharashtra and
Karnataka respectively.
•The increase in the negative sentiment in Delhi can be attributed to conversations about the ineffectiveness of Sheila Dixit
as the CM and the increase in corrupt practices and crimes during Congress’ regime.
8. Conversation Examples
There is more negative than positive conversation in most states. Maharashtra leads the conversations.
There is high negative sentiment in Delhi lately, stating ineffectiveness of Sheila Dixit as the CM and the
increase in corrupt practices and crimes in the Congress regime.
10. Online Mentions for BJP
September
October
November
Low
Medium
High
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
21.5%
19.1%
13%
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
21.9%
21.7%
11.8%
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
25.7%
23%
12.3%
Location
Maharashtra
Delhi
Karnataka
Posts
22.5%
21.4%
11.8%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
24.5%
22.2%
12 %
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
26.5%
22.3%
12.8%
Positive Sentiment
Negative Sentiment
From September 2013 to November 2013, the positive conversations for BJP have increased by 19.53% and 20.41% in
Maharashtra and Delhi respectively; and decreased by 5.3% in Karnataka.
The negative conversations have increased by 23.83% and 8.47% in Delhi and Karnataka respectively; and decreased by
0.8% in Maharashtra.
The increase in the negative sentiment can be attributed to conversations about BJP rejecting the ordinance against
criminals in politics as well as the arrest of Tarun Tejpal and the accusations of conspiracy he levelled against the BJP.
11. Conversation Examples
Initially there was a positive sentiment around BJP but in October and November the negative sentiment
increased, because in October, BJP rejected the ordinance against criminals in Politics and in November,
Tarun Tejpal was arrested; he accused BJP of conspiracy.
13. Online Mentions for AAP
September
October
November
Low
Medium
High
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
29.5%
18%
12.8%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
32.8%
20.3%
9.9%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
30.9%
20.1%
13.6%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
28.6%
21.1%
11.1%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
31.9%
22.5%
10.7%
Location
Delhi
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Posts
28.2%
21.9%
13.3%
Positive Sentiment
Negative Sentiment
From September 2013 to November 2013, the positive conversations for AAP have increased by 11.66%, 4.74%, and 6.25%
in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Karnataka respectively.
The negative conversations have increased by 3.79% and 19.81% in Maharashtra and Karnataka respectively; and decreased
by 1.3% in Delhi.
The increase in the negative sentiment can be attributed to conversations about rumours of Arvind Kejriwal joining the
Congress.
14. Conversation Examples
People are hopeful of clean politics from AAP and showing a lot of support to them. Although there were
occasional rumours around Arvind Kejriwal being corrupt.
15. Online Conversations about Political Parties
Online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to identify the
positive and negative words that each party is associated with.
These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association
with the name of the particular party, in online conversations.
The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as
other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the political
party in the same context.
16. Positive Buzz around the Congress
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
% Posts
proudofpm
33.99
Good
30.16
ordinance
24.19
best
11.67
Total Mentions – 4,019
Positive words that the
Congress is associated with:
Proud of
PM, Good, Ordinance,
Best
Positive online conversations include people praising the PM for signing the
nuclear deal with the USA, and praising Rahul Gandhi for supporting the
ordinance against criminal politicians.
18. Negative Buzz around the Congress
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
% Posts
attack
21.21
corruption
18.44
nonsense
6.67
riot
17.26
fight
14.15
corrupt
11.99
terror
10.28
Total Mentions – 19,734
Negative words that the
Congress is associated
with:
Attack, Corruption,
Nonsense, Riot, Fight,
Corrupt, Terror
Negative conversations about the Congress are majorly centred around
corruption. The Congress has also been criticized for attacking Narendra Modi.
20. Positive Buzz around the BJP
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
% Posts
modi
33.96
rally
12.14
narendra
11.65
vote
8.40
election
6.58
namoinbhopal
6.36
ordinance
4.90
namointrichy
4.66
speech
4.64
Total Mentions – 19,100
Positive words that
the BJP is associated
with:
Modi, Rally,
Narendra, Vote,
Election
Positive conversations around the BJP include people’s expectations of
improvements to the current state of the nation and a lot of positive comments
about Modi being the leader of change.
22. Negative Buzz around the BJP
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
modi
ordinance
convict
riot
arrest
criminal
mla
% Posts
29.18
15.78
9.37
9.22
9.13
7.06
6.97
Total Mentions – 17,682
Negative words that the
BJP is associated with:
Convict, Riot, Arrest,
Criminal
Negative conversations around the BJP are about people unhappy with the
opposition to the ordinance against criminal politicians. The arrest of a BJP MLA
in Meerut also increased the negative conversations for the BJP.
24. Positive Buzz around the AAP
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
% Posts
support
59.80
power
14.72
hope
14.21
change
11.27
Total Mentions – 1,562
Positive words that
the AAP is associated
Positive conversations about the AAP are focused around its image of being a clean
with:
party which will bring a change in Indian Politics.
Support, Power, Hope,
Change
26. Negative Buzz around the AAP
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
% Posts
corruption
35.74
corrupt
26.37
attack
13.57
criminal
13.17
expose
11.16
Total Mentions – 2,742
Negative words that the
AAP is associated with:
Corruption, Corrupt,
Attack, Criminal, Expose
Negative conversations around the AAP are about rumours of Arvind Kejriwal
joining the Congress.
28. Buzz Around The Parliament
Topics
% Posts
criminal
38.82
ordinance
37.71
convict
9.95
protest
7.25
election
6.27
Total Mentions – 814
The ordinance to protect criminals, BJP’s U-turn over the ordinance against criminal politicians, and Rahul
Gandhi’s remark calling it nonsense; were the most discussed topics around the Parliament.
30. Gender-wise Support for Political Parties
48.86 %
49.29 %
44.79 %
45.89 %
4.81 % 6.35 %
This graph shows the percentage-wise distribution across political parties; of the total positive political
conversations from men and women.
The support for BJP is higher than that of the Congress and the AAP from both men and women.
It is interesting to note that inspite of the less volume of conversations, percentage of female support for
BJP is higher than the percentage of male support for the BJP.
31. Online Conversations about Politicians
Online conversations around the top political leaders have been analyzed to identify the
positive and negative words that each leader is associated with.
These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association
with the name of the particular leader, in online conversations.
The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as
other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the leader in
the same context.
32. Positive Buzz around Narendra Modi
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
% Posts
good
20.47
leader
17.17
praise
12.94
dream
12.28
happy
9.86
best
9.58
prime
9.31
great
8.39
Total Mentions – 9,956
Positive words that
Narendra Modi is
associated with:
Good, Leader, Praise,
Dream, Happy
Positive conversations about Narendra Modi talk of him as a great leader and
orator who can realize the dream of a progressive India.
34. Negative Buzz around Narendra Modi
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
% Posts
riot
46.55
divisive
42.61
ordinance
10.85
Total Mentions – 1,650
Negative words that
Narendra Modi is
associated with:
Riot, Divisive
Negative online conversations about Narendra Modi talk of him as a divisive
leader. Conversations about the Gujarat riots contribute significantly to the
negative buzz.
36. Positive Buzz around Arvind Kejriwal
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
support
victory
vote
raining fund
responsible
genius
quiet genius
good
% Posts
16.85
16.85
15.98
10.52
10.52
9.89
9.73
9.65
Total Mentions – 1,264
Positive words that
Arvind Kejriwal is
associated with:
Support, Victory, Vote,
Raising
Fund, Responsible,
Genius
Positive online conversations about Arvind Kejriwal portray him as a quiet genius
who can contribute to building a corruption-free India.
38. Negative Buzz around Arvind Kejriwal
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
% Posts
blame
38.20
fight
36.51
expose
25.29
Total Mentions – 767
Negative words that
Arvind Kejriwal is
associated with:
Blame, Fight, Expose
Negative conversations about Arvind Kejriwal include criticism for blaming the
BJP for the Muzaffarnagar violence about rumours of him joining the Congress.
40. Positive Buzz around Manmohan Singh
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
% Posts
proudofpm
80.15
best
10.67
brain
9.17
Total Mentions – 3,139
Positive words that
Manmohan Singh is
associated with:
Proud of PM, Best, Brain
Positive online conversations around Manmohan Singh include how he is the best
Prime Minister and the brain behind pulling India out from the global meltdown
during tenure as a Finance Minister.
42. Negative Buzz around Manmohan Singh
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
% Posts
silence
29.66
nonsense
27.15
issue
23.19
insult
20
Total Mentions – 1,035
Negative words that
Manmohan Singh is
associated with:
Silence, Nonsense,
Issue, Insult
The major focus of negative conversations about Manmohan Singh is on his
silence on important matters. There are also many jokes about his ordinance
against criminal politicians being rejected.
44. Positive Buzz around Rahul Gandhi
Percentage of posts for
the top positive buzz
words
Words
% Posts
best
40
pm
40
leader
19
Total Mentions – 2,196
Positive words that
Rahul Gandhi is
associated with:
Best, PM, Leadership
Positive online conversations about Rahul Gandhi suggest that a young leader like
him is necessary and is best for the nation.
46. Negative Buzz around Rahul Gandhi
Percentage of posts for
the top negative buzz
words
Words
nonsense
wrong
waste
% Posts
53.93
24.55
21.52
Total Mentions – 3,755
Negative words that
Rahul Gandhi is
associated with:
Nonsense, Wrong,
Waste
A majority of negative conversations about Rahul Gandhi include jokes about him
tearing the ordinance against criminal politicians and include discussions about him
being an inappropriate candidate for leading the country.
48. Sentiment Analysis
The online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to arrive at
the volume of positive and negative mentions for each, as well as their percentages with respect
to the total number of conversations.
A month-wise analysis has been carried out in order to track the change in sentiment, month-onmonth.
Posts/Conversations refer to mentions on any online platforms.
49. Sentiment Analysis - September
September
The Fodder Scam verdict resulted in negative conversations for Congress. Narendra Modi’s address to
advertisers about Taking Brand India to the World resulted in positive conversations for the BJP.
51. Sentiment Analysis - October
October
The election commission’s notice issued to Rahul Gandhi, for his inflammatory speech, drove
the high negative sentiment for the Congress.
53. Sentiment Analysis - November
November
The conversations for all three parties are mostly a build up to the elections, discussing who the
next power of the country would be.
55. Sentiment Analysis Over Time
Congress
September
56
November
0
50
100
150
51.9
49.2
50.8
52.9
47.1
45.9
October
November
47.9
48.1
October
38.8
52.1
September
September
44
61.2
October
AAP
BJP
November
0
50
100
150
54.1
33.9
66.1
46.1
0
53.9
50
100
150
Congress: The negative sentiment shows a consistent decrease while the positive sentiment shows a drop
in October, followed by an increase in November.
BJP: The negative sentiment shows an increase in October followed by a dip in November while the
positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.
AAP: The negative sentiment shows a dip in October followed by an increase in November while the
positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.
56. Top Issues Discussed on Twitter
Mentions – 10,571
These are the top issues that have been discussed on Twitter over the last three months.
57. Top Issues Discussed on Facebook
Mentions – 18,717
These are the top issues that have been discussed on Facebook over the last three months.
58. Positive and Negative Sentiment Around Issues
Mentions – 24,651
Positive
Negative
Economy: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP
have more positive mentions than negative ones.
Elections: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP
have more positive mentions than negative ones.
Government: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP
have more positive mentions than negative ones.
Politicians: Congress, BJP, and AAP have more negative mentions that positive ones.
61. Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity
Narendra Modi, with the highest fan following across Facebook, Twitter, Google +, and YouTube
emerges as the most popular politician on social media.
Owing to a higher Twitter following, better sentiment rate, and more YouTube video views; Shashi
Tharoor comes second, followed by Arvind Kejriwal who has a high number of fans and followers
on Facebook and Twitter respectively.
63. Basis of Calculation
Total weightage score has been arrived at by taking the important parameters of each social
network, assigning it a weightage on the basis of the importance of that factor, and then taking a
total of each factor multiplied by its weightage.
Engagement rate for Facebook has been calculated by dividing the number of people talking
about the page by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.
64. Top 10 Active Politicians on Facebook
Politicians
Engagement Rate (%)
People
Engagement Rate
No. of fans talking about
in%)
the page
6%
5%
4%
Arvind Kejriwal
3%
60,574
22.87
Arvind Kejriwal
10,23,035
1,60,923
15.73
Rajnath Singh
4,93,492
66,227
13.42
Omar Abdullah
52,446
6,556
12.5
Sheila Dikshit
1,16,934
8,782
7.51
Narendra Modi
66,75,497
4,97,992
7.46
30,259
1,776
5.87
Akhilesh Yadav
3,06,964
15,225
4.96
79,751
3,342
4.19
4,76,302
13,575
2.85
Rajnath Singh
23%
Omar Abdullah
8%
Sheila Dikshit
8%
16%
13%
2,64,861
Shashi Tharoor
Arun Jaitley
Arun Jaitley
14%
Narendra Modi
Milind Deora
Akhilesh Yadav
Shashi Tharoor
Milind Deora
Mamata Banerjee
Mamata Banerjee
• Arun Jaitley has the highest engagement with 23% engagement followed Arvind Kejriwal and Rajnath
Singh with 16% and 14% respectively.
• Engagement rate calculated on the basis of number of people talking about the page divided by the
number of fans, multiplied by 100.
65. Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter
Based on the number of tweets
25000
20498
20000
15000
10000
5988
5000
0
3734 3420 2874
2229 2099 1779
Number of tweets
341
76
Shashi Tharoor with 20,498 is the most engaged on Twitter. Omar Abdullah with 5,988 & Manmohan Singh
with 3,734 are 2nd and 3rd respectively.
66. Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter
Based on number of followers
Twitter Followers
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
29.04
19.87
9.28
7.98
7.72
3.88
1.25
1.13
1.08
0.44
(in lakhs)
Narendra Modi dominates the list with 29 lakh followers followed by Shashi Tharoor with 19 lakh followers
67. Looking Ahead
•
When it comes to online conversations; no party or leader, except Narendra Modi as a likely
candidate to Prime Minister, emerges as a preferred option by a significant margin.
•
The online conversations show that while in terms of percentage, the positive and negative
sentiment for the top three political parties viz. Congress, BJP, and AAP are comparable, the
volume of conversations for the Congress is considerably high as compared to the BJP and AAP.
•
Even as far as online popularity and activity of leaders goes, there is no clear domination of leaders
from either the Congress or the BJP in the top 10; and inspite of just one popular leader, the AAP
does find a place among top 10 in the most active as well as most popular leaders lists.
•
Post the results of the elections in the five states viz. Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya
Pradesh, and Mizoram; the levels of online conversation and sentiment are expected to have
undergone a significant change.
•
These will be reflected in our early-January analysis of India’s run up to the polls in April/May.
68. About Ethinos Digital Marketing
Ethinos Digital Marketing is a full service digital marketing agency with a unique, hands-on approach
to help clients with solutions in all areas of digital marketing including Strategy and Media Planning,
Social Media, Branding and Design, Search and ORM, Mobile and Emerging Media, and Content
Services. Ethinos’ client list consists of diverse brands like Capgemini, Rolta, Kaspersky, Olympus
Imaging, Hachette Publishing, Olympic Gold Quest, Kotak, HDFC Bank, NDTV, Times of India. Ethinos
has received extensive industry recognition from bodies like Direct Marketing Association of India,
Dragons of Asia, exchange4media, afaqs!, Social Samosa, Facebook, etc.
Contact Details:
www.ethinos.com
www.twitter.com/ethinos
www.facebook.com/EthinosDigital
www.linkedin.com/company/ethinos-digital-marketing
www.slideshare.net/ethinos
69. About Germin8
Germin8 is a Big Data analytics company focused on helping you understand and act in real
time on the gazillions of conversations by your stakeholders and provide actionable industry
insights through social listening.
Explic8 ™ is Germin8's stakeholder insights and engagement platform that collects and
analyses conversations in real time from public sources and private sources, and converts
them into industry-specific actionable insights and leads.
Contact Details:
contact@germin8.com
sales@germin8.com
Twitter - @germin8
Facebook - facebook.com/germinait
