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SOCIAL
NETWORKS
AND MOBILE
                                                                                 08. 10.11




C     O      N       N       E   C   T   I   N   G   T   H   E   D   O   T   S
THE COLLECTIVE FACTORY LLC
Gene Keenan - The Collective Factory LLC
SUMMARY


    There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary
    destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumer with their
    ever increasing network of friends represented an opportunity to disseminate their message in
    a cost effective manner. Recently however there have been a number of research reports
    indicating a decline across the board of engagement levels on social networking sites around
    the globe. This decline is concentrated in the key 18-29 YO demograhic or post college but
    younger than 30 age set. This document will try to shed some light on:

    •   What are the actual social networking trends?

    •   Are their basic human drivers behind these trends?

    •   What are the technological drivers enabling these human drivers?

    •   What are the implications for brands and agencies?

    •   How do we exploit these changes on behalf of clients?


3
SOCIAL NETWORKING MYTHS AND REALITIES: A SUMMARY


                           BELIEF                                                           REALITY
             Social networking is a new phenomenon                                    Only the mechanic is new

                                                                  Despite the advent of digital the actual size of intimate reciprocal
    Digital allows humans to maintain large reciprocal networks
                                                                     networks are small (20-40 people) and a maximum of 150

                                                                  Brand pages are generally a waste of money & time unless they
            I just need to create a Facebook presence
                                                                      are executed well with a marketing plan behind them

     Brands can reach a large network of people using social                Most consumers will never see your message


                 Facebook transforms marketing                                   The same old marketing rules apply


                        Mobile is still new                                      Mobile will over take online in a year

     Over sharing of information is a new consumer behavior
                                                                                      Only the mechanic is new
                   driven by social networking



4
SOME MARKET NUMBERS
FACEBOOK REMAINS DOMINANT PLATFORM

                U.S. Visitor Trend for Leading Social Networking Sites
180,000

160,000                                                                                                                                                                                        Facebook.com
140,000                                                                                                                                                                                        Linkedin.com
                                                                                                                                                                                               Myspace.com
120,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                Twitter.com
 100,00                                                                                                                                                                                         Tumblr.com
 80,000                                                                                                                                                                                         GOOGLE+

 60,000

 40,000

 20,000                                                                                                                                                                                         FACEBOOK IS
       0
                        0              0            0              0               0            0            0             0            0           0               0           0          0
                                                                                                                                                                                               STILL WINNING
                    1                 1            1            01                1            1            1             1            1           1            1              1          1
                -20             -  20           20            2                20           20           20            20          -20          20          -20             20         20
             un
                               l
                                             ug
                                               -
                                                          ep
                                                             -
                                                                           ct
                                                                             -
                                                                                       ov
                                                                                          -
                                                                                                     ec
                                                                                                       -            n-
                                                                                                                                 eb          ar
                                                                                                                                               -
                                                                                                                                                          pr              y-         n-
           J                Ju             A            S              O              N             D            Ja            F            M           A               M
                                                                                                                                                                         a         Ju


5   Source: Comscore Media Metrix, U.S., Jun-10-Jun-11
BUT GLOBAL DECLINE IN SOCIAL NETWORKING USEAGE HAS BEGUN



                                                       Decline is seen in
                                                      the key 18-29 Year
                                                           Old User

                                                              But:
                                                       Middle age groups
                                                      continue to grow and
                                                         are the fastest
                                                            growing


7   Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
DECLINE IN FB USEAGE BY ACTIVITY
      10.0%


                     July 2009 -> June 2011
         5.0%

                                                                                                                                                       Over time Facebook
         0.0%
                                                                                                                                                       usage contribution
      -5.0%
                                                                                                                                                          drops off and

     -10.0%
                                                                                                                                                         involvement
                                                                                                                                                        becomes more
     -15.0%
                                                                          ts
                                                                                                                                                           passive
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                                                                                                                     U
                     Global                     US                   US College Educated < 30

8
THE MAJORITY ABANDONING FB ARE YOUNG ADULTS




9
                                                  1/4
                                             OF YOUNG ADULTS (18-29YO) LEAVING THE SOCIAL NETWORK




    SOURCE: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
WHY THIS DECLINE IN USEAGE?




                    “boredom” and “getting tired” of
                            the services




10
WHERE ARE THESE YOUNG ADULTS GOING?
FIRST A QUESTION:
WHAT FACEBOOK ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED?
MOVE TOWARDS HYPER PERSONAL, HYPER LOCAL ACTIVITIES


                                                              INCREASED




                                                       0.0%




                                                                5.0%
                                                                            MOVE TOWARDS:
                       Played a game                                         HYPER LOCAL
                      Started a group
                                                                            HYPER PERSONAL

                        Online dating
                                                                             ENGAGEMENTS
                                                                                    +
             Joined a branded group
                                                                          LOW ENGAGEMENT HIGH
     Uploaded videos on your profile
                                                                            IMPACT ACTIVITIES
                                                                             (video - analogous to a form letter)
                 US College Educated < 30


13   Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
Tumblr


                                                                                  Total Users


FACT:
Activity is down and they are                                                      Per Day

“leaving” FB.
                                                                                                0   12500000   25000000   37500000   50000000
                                                                                                               Instagram
WHERE:
They are moving towards Tumblr,
                                                                                  Total Users
Instagram, Path, Color, and
GroupMe: Passion groups with
more authentic experiences.                                                         Per Day


                                                                                                0   2000000     4000000    6000000   8000000

Source: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
RICHER ENGAGEMENTS WITH FEWER PEOPLE
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (are there basic human drivers?)
Because social was largely a activity done online it was used
to fill in the time between other tasks.


As mobile has freed us from being tied to desktops it has
made us more terrestrially focused creatures with mobile
acting as the tether to our virtual lives.


As these terrestrial experiences become more deeply
personal, physically managing large networks of “friends”
becomes “boring” and “tiresome.”
THERE IS A HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE FOR THIS




150
                                                                                                                                Dunbar's number is suggested to be a
                                                                                                                               theoretical cognitive limit to the number
                                                                                                                                of people with whom one can maintain
                                                                                                                                 stable social relationships. These are
                                                                                                                              relationships in which an individual knows
                                                                                                                              who each person is, and how each person
                                                                                                                                     relates to every other person.

                                                                                                                                There is debate about the exact number
                                                                                                                                but it is somewhere between 100 and

     DUNBAR’S NUMBER                                                                                                                              250

     BACKGROUND: Dunbar's surveys of village and tribe sizes also appeared to approximate this predicted value, including 150 as the estimated size of a neolithic
     farming village; 150 as the splitting point of Hutterite settlements; 200 as the upper bound on the number of academics in a discipline's sub-specialization; 150 as
     the basic unit size of professional armies in Roman antiquity and in modern times since the 16th century; and notions of appropriate company size.


18
The average 22-year-old has over
                             1,000 Facebook friends
                   Far beyond the carrying capacity of Dunbar’s Number

source: http://www.intersperience.com/ May, 2011
BUT THE
                             AVERAGE
            USER HAS ONLY
             130 FRIENDS                                                 DUNBAR’S NUMBER



source: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics August, 2011
FRIENDS BY AGE: LIFE STAGE



     Group Acceptance                                        Self Actualization & Intimacy

                                                                                               The social networking life cycle
                                       1,000
 1000                                                                                          is to move from one of seeking
                                                                                                 group acceptance to one of
                                                                                                   self identity and intimacy.
     750                             College
                                                                                                 As we get older we move
                                                                                               towards smaller more intimate
     500450                                                                                        groups and individual
                                                                                                        passions.
                                               Early Adult Life      Middle Age
             Jr High/High School
     250
                                                       150                                       Older users will never have
                                                                         75                     large networks because they
                                                                                        20     have moved beyond the group
       0
                                                                                                  acceptance phase of life.
 13-16 YO                          17-22 YO          30+ YO            40+ YO         50+ YO

21    source: intersperience, gene keenan
SO, SIZE DOES MATTER: SMALLER NETWORKS GET MORE LOVE

                                         Established Relationships
              40
                                         One-Way Communication

                                        Reciprocal Communication
# OF PEOPLE




              30
                                                                                                       Despite large network sizes.
                                                                                                       Reciprocal communication
              20
                                                                                                      remains with a small intimate
                                                                                                                  group
              10



              0                                   NETWORK SIZE

                       0            100               200               300               400   500

       22      source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
Q: WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THOSE HIGH
  REACH ONE-WAY CONVERSATIONS?
ERIC BERNE
       Creator of
 Transactional Analysis
                                                                   Pastime Conversations
                                                         A pastime is a series of transactions that is
                                                      complementary (reciprocal), semi-ritualistic, and is
                                                        mainly intended as a time-structuring activity:
                                                                         Small talk.

                                                      Pastime conversations are low engagement but
                                                         of high value from a ritualistic standpoint
                                                       Example (while running into someone on street):
                                                                 Talking about the weather
                                                                        Headline news

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transactional_analysis
THE RITUAL IS THE SAME TODAY BUT THE CHANNELS HAVE CHANGED




     YESTERDAY: IN-PERSON                  TODAY: VIRTUAL

      Talking about the weather                   Twitter updates
          General small talk                     Facebook updates

        Content from analog                     Content from digital+

                 LOW REACH                      HIGH REACH

                            BUT BOTH ARE LOW
                              ENGAGEMENT
25
MOST SOCIAL INTERACTIONS ARE “PASTIME” CONVERSATIONS

                       Average User*
                    “Sharing Information”                                                    Low Engagement
                                                                                             “announcements”

                                                                                        Broadcast out but typically not
                                                                                      read, commented or synthesized*

                                                                                       The primary difference between
                                                                                           analog and digital ritual
                                                                                      conversations: digital are typically
                                                                                     not reciprocal (because they are not
                                                                                                  in-person)
           *You can most easily see this in twitter where information is
      broadcast and forwarded but rarely analyzed for accuracy. At the end
      of the day it’s not the content that matters but the ritual of sharing it.

26   source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
BUT BASED ON THIS RESEARCH THEN FACEBOOK ADVERTS SHOULD NOT BE EFFECTIVE




     FACEBOOK CTR                          GOOGLE ADWORDS CTR


               0.011-0.165%                    0.4-0.7%
                         but...
                     conversions
                    were practically
                     non-existent



27   source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
Q: WHAT DOES WORK?
FIRST: WHAT ARE CONSUMERS PERCEPTIONS OF MEDIA?




                   Emails I signed up for               Editorial content such as a newspaper article                Ads in magazines                           Brand websites
      4%                                      3%                                  11%                   3%                                  6%
                                                       3%                                4%                                                         4%                              4%
            36% 46%                     12%
                                                            34%       49%
                                                                                                              22%       52%         17%
                                                                                                                                                          31%     49%         11%




           Ads served in search engine results              Products shown embedded in TV                          Ads on mobile devices                          Ads in radio

      2%
                                              7%
                                                      2%                                                2%                                           3%                                6%   universal in
           19%         52%            19%                   15%   53%        18%       11%                   11%    50%         22%       15%             24%    51%          16%
                                                                                                                                                                                            lack of trust
                      Online video ads                             Online banner ads                               Ads on social networks                         Ads on TV

      2%                                              2%                                                2%                                                                          7%
                                                                                                                                                     3%
           17%         52%           20%      9%           14%
                                                                  51%         23%       11%                  13%     48% 24%                13%
                                                                                                                                                          26%     45%            19%




         Trust Completely                     Trust Somewhat          Neither Trust nor Distrust                   Don’t Trust Much               Don’t Trust At All




29   Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
INDIVIDUAL relationships and collective wisdom however DO WORK




                  RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PEOPLE I KNOW                                          CONSUMER OPINIONS POSTED ONLINE
                                                                                                                                                  note drop off
                                                                                                                                                     between
                  #1                                                                          #2
                                                                                                        4%                                   2%
                                                                     2%
                                                                          1%
                                      18%        58%           21%                                               45%          38%      10%         friends and
                                                                                                                                                       just
                                                                                                                                                   consumers
           Trust Completely                   Trust Somewhat     Neither Trust nor Distrust   Don’t Trust Much    Don’t Trust At All




30   Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
FACEBOOK REALIZES THIS WHICH IS WHY THEY DO THIS:




     Facebook attempts to be a “friend” by
       selling ads based on friend likes




31
GE STUDY PROVES CONSUMERS RESPOND TO SHARED CONTENT




                                                                                                           Research proves
                                                                                                               that close
                                                                                                              relationship
                                                                                                         recommendations is
                                                                                                          the best way to win




32   source: http://adage.com/article/digital/ge-study-proves-consumers-respond-shared-content/232324/
WHAT ABOUT FANS?
MEASURING CORE FANS ON FACEBOOK



                                    CORE FAN:
                                    Any fan whose comment count is higher
                                    than the average is a “core fan”.

                                    This number ranges from 1.14 for Bob
                                    Marley to 2.03 for Bob Marley.

                                    WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT:
                                    Unless a fan actively participates in a brand’s
                                    Facebook Page and their activity on the Page
                                    has been continuous, the brand’s status
                                    updates will cease appearing in the fan’s
                                    Facebook news stream.



34   source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
Q: WHY ARE CORE FAN COUNTS SO LOW IF
BRAND X OR ARTIST Y IS A PASSION POINT?
Campfire Versus Fireworks Theory



                                  Brand X or Artist Y might be a
                                   passion point but when that
                                    interaction takes place in
                                    Facebook it becomes less
                                    authentic because it’s not
                                        close and intimate




         Close intimate lasting                                    Group experiences, exciting
             conversations                                              but not intimate
source: Sam Huston
IMPLICATIONS



                                       FACT:
               Young users are moving to mobile at an accelerated rate


                                   RESULT:
          Mobile allows casual connections to be maintained in a one
          way “shout out” (pastime conversation) using video posting
          while engaging in deeper connections with “true friends” and
           personal passions through smaller more intimate networks

                  Facebook moves from ‘Passion Point” to “Utility”


37
IMPLICATIONS FOR FACEBOOK
FACEBOOK



                                        FACT:
           Young users activity already mirrors that of older users once you
               strip away the “Maintained and One-Way” relationships


                                       RESULT:
               Young users will maintain large networks through pastime
           conversations but will have a smaller group of close connections
             (either through FB or a another third party passion site/app).




39
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
THE PATH FORWARD




     INSIGHT                                        SOLUTION
     Brands need to move beyond Pastime type        For social this means
     conversations with consumers and into deeper   •   Being mobile which means understanding where
     more meaningful relationships with them            mobile is going
     This means:                                    •   Going smaller by focusing on passions like:
     •   Understanding your consumer                    •   Instagram
                                                        •   Tumblr
     •   Knowing their passions
                                                        •   Path
     •   Relating to those passions
                                                        •   etc.
     •   Being where they are
                                                    •   Providing services instead of advertising. The best
     •   Providing value                                way to do this is with mobile
                                                    •   Creating opportunities to share instead of advertising
                                                        to


41
CONTACT:
Gene Keenan
gene@thecollectivefactory.com
415-218.7369

http://www.thecollectivefactory.com
ADDITIONAL DATA POINTS
MOBILE INTERNET IS NOW FREE AND EVERYWHERE




                                                   Observation:
                                             Smartphones are now “free”

                                                    Implication:
                                              Acceleration of the mobile
                                                     consumer




44   Source:AT&T / August 2011
IN 12 MONTHS MOBILE WILL OVERTAKE ONLINE


                               NOW                                     1 YEAR FROM NOW
                                   1%                                                   3%
         1% 12%                                                                 11%
                7%                                                     7%
          2%                                                                                     18%     One year from now
                                                                                                           mobile devices
                                                                                                        combined will match
                                                                       19%                                 PC/Laptops as
                                                                                                          people’s preferred
                                     77%                                                   42%         internet access device


                      E-Reader                         Mobile Phone         Personal PC/Laptop
                      Tablet Device                    Through my TV        Work PC/Laptop
      WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS YOUR FAVORITE DEVICE TO ACCESS THE INTERNET

45   Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
MOBILE DRIVING SOCIAL NETWORKING GROWTH

                                                                        April 2008          April 2009          April 2010
                                                      Category      # of Unique Users   # of Unique Users   # of Unique Users
                                                                           (000)               (000)               (000)


500%                                                   Social
                                                                         5,270              13,905              27,007
                                                     Networking
                                    412%
375%                                                   Search           11,817              24,846              35,573

                                                    Entertainment        9,687              17,330              25,791
250%                                       218%


125%

     0%
                     Social Networking     Search



46   source: nielsen - april 2010
MOBILE SOCIAL NETWORKING APP USEAGE IS SOARING




                                     240% since last year.
                                     Pastime social networking activity is quickly moving
                                                         to mobile



47   source: comscore - June, 2010
LARGE MOBILE COMPANIES




                         2x more active than desktop-only users
                                                                    Mobile = 50% of total active users,


                          200 MM mobile active                           vs. 25% Y/Y
                          users vs. 50MM in 9/09                  Mobile = 40% of all tweets




                                                                   50% of all users subscribe on
                      100MM mobile users vs. 50MM Y/Y
                                                                               mobile

48   Source: KPCB / June 2011
60%
                                                               Of all Smartphone owners have used a
                                                                       location based service




source: Pew Research Center’s Internet and American Life Project
HOW CAN BRANDS REACH




      CRM for those users who “Like” the brand can be used to generate
         the “friend recommendation” (most effective) brands want.

EXAMPLE:

Lauren                                        Mary
                         Banana Republic
                           sends Lauren a
                             coupon for
                                                                        Like Works
                        shopping and tells                              It leverages a brand
         Likes Banana   her she can bring a                             advocate to act as a
            Republic                                 They go shopping   sales person on the
                         friend: She brings
                           her friend Mary.                                  brands behalf



50
Facebook counts as “active” users who go to its Web site or its
Title Line One                                                                                  mobile site. But it also counts an entire other category of people
Secondary title line
                                                                                                who don’t click on facebook.com as “active users.” According to
                                                                                                the company, a user is considered active if he or she “took an action
                                                                                                to share content or activity with his or her Facebook friends or
                                                                                                connections via a third-party Web site that is integrated with
                                                                                                Facebook.”

                                                                                                Come again?

                                                                                                In other words, every time you press the “Like” button on NFL.com,
                                                                                                for example, you’re an “active user” of Facebook. Perhaps you
                                                                                                share a Twitter message on your Facebook account? That would
                                                                                                make you an active Facebook user, too. Have you ever shared
                                                                                                music on Spotify with a friend? You’re an active Facebook user. If
                                                                                                you’ve logged into Huffington Post using your Facebook account
                                                                                                and left a comment on the site — and your comment was
                                                                                                automatically shared on Facebook — you, too, are an “active user”
                                                                                                even though you’ve never actually spent any time on facebook.com.




51   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/those-millions-on-facebook-some-may-not-actually-visit/

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Connecting The Dots: Social & Mobile (Facebook Marketing, Social Media, Online Communities, Mocial)

  • 1. SOCIAL NETWORKS AND MOBILE 08. 10.11 C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S THE COLLECTIVE FACTORY LLC
  • 2. Gene Keenan - The Collective Factory LLC
  • 3. SUMMARY There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumer with their ever increasing network of friends represented an opportunity to disseminate their message in a cost effective manner. Recently however there have been a number of research reports indicating a decline across the board of engagement levels on social networking sites around the globe. This decline is concentrated in the key 18-29 YO demograhic or post college but younger than 30 age set. This document will try to shed some light on: • What are the actual social networking trends? • Are their basic human drivers behind these trends? • What are the technological drivers enabling these human drivers? • What are the implications for brands and agencies? • How do we exploit these changes on behalf of clients? 3
  • 4. SOCIAL NETWORKING MYTHS AND REALITIES: A SUMMARY BELIEF REALITY Social networking is a new phenomenon Only the mechanic is new Despite the advent of digital the actual size of intimate reciprocal Digital allows humans to maintain large reciprocal networks networks are small (20-40 people) and a maximum of 150 Brand pages are generally a waste of money & time unless they I just need to create a Facebook presence are executed well with a marketing plan behind them Brands can reach a large network of people using social Most consumers will never see your message Facebook transforms marketing The same old marketing rules apply Mobile is still new Mobile will over take online in a year Over sharing of information is a new consumer behavior Only the mechanic is new driven by social networking 4
  • 6. FACEBOOK REMAINS DOMINANT PLATFORM U.S. Visitor Trend for Leading Social Networking Sites 180,000 160,000 Facebook.com 140,000 Linkedin.com Myspace.com 120,000 Twitter.com 100,00 Tumblr.com 80,000 GOOGLE+ 60,000 40,000 20,000 FACEBOOK IS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 STILL WINNING 1 1 1 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -20 - 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 -20 20 -20 20 20 un l ug - ep - ct - ov - ec - n- eb ar - pr y- n- J Ju A S O N D Ja F M A M a Ju 5 Source: Comscore Media Metrix, U.S., Jun-10-Jun-11
  • 7. BUT GLOBAL DECLINE IN SOCIAL NETWORKING USEAGE HAS BEGUN Decline is seen in the key 18-29 Year Old User But: Middle age groups continue to grow and are the fastest growing 7 Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
  • 8. DECLINE IN FB USEAGE BY ACTIVITY 10.0% July 2009 -> June 2011 5.0% Over time Facebook 0.0% usage contribution -5.0% drops off and -10.0% involvement becomes more -15.0% ts passive n le s p s ift p nd io nd u ou ofi ac /g ro at ie ie gr t nt pr tg en ic fr fr co a pl ur tis s ith to ed re ap yo ew ar w s lp in ge an n/ -20.0% on rn d Jo ta ge ia sa d gi fo os ic le sa es di us ed ot al es m a st ph m ch tm nt nt In a ar d Se Se ed de an Se in oa st Jo In pl U Global US US College Educated < 30 8
  • 9. THE MAJORITY ABANDONING FB ARE YOUNG ADULTS 9 1/4 OF YOUNG ADULTS (18-29YO) LEAVING THE SOCIAL NETWORK SOURCE: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
  • 10. WHY THIS DECLINE IN USEAGE? “boredom” and “getting tired” of the services 10
  • 11. WHERE ARE THESE YOUNG ADULTS GOING?
  • 12. FIRST A QUESTION: WHAT FACEBOOK ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED?
  • 13. MOVE TOWARDS HYPER PERSONAL, HYPER LOCAL ACTIVITIES INCREASED 0.0% 5.0% MOVE TOWARDS: Played a game HYPER LOCAL Started a group HYPER PERSONAL Online dating ENGAGEMENTS + Joined a branded group LOW ENGAGEMENT HIGH Uploaded videos on your profile IMPACT ACTIVITIES (video - analogous to a form letter) US College Educated < 30 13 Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
  • 14. Tumblr Total Users FACT: Activity is down and they are Per Day “leaving” FB. 0 12500000 25000000 37500000 50000000 Instagram WHERE: They are moving towards Tumblr, Total Users Instagram, Path, Color, and GroupMe: Passion groups with more authentic experiences. Per Day 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 Source: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
  • 15. RICHER ENGAGEMENTS WITH FEWER PEOPLE
  • 16. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (are there basic human drivers?)
  • 17. Because social was largely a activity done online it was used to fill in the time between other tasks. As mobile has freed us from being tied to desktops it has made us more terrestrially focused creatures with mobile acting as the tether to our virtual lives. As these terrestrial experiences become more deeply personal, physically managing large networks of “friends” becomes “boring” and “tiresome.”
  • 18. THERE IS A HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE FOR THIS 150 Dunbar's number is suggested to be a theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person. There is debate about the exact number but it is somewhere between 100 and DUNBAR’S NUMBER 250 BACKGROUND: Dunbar's surveys of village and tribe sizes also appeared to approximate this predicted value, including 150 as the estimated size of a neolithic farming village; 150 as the splitting point of Hutterite settlements; 200 as the upper bound on the number of academics in a discipline's sub-specialization; 150 as the basic unit size of professional armies in Roman antiquity and in modern times since the 16th century; and notions of appropriate company size. 18
  • 19. The average 22-year-old has over 1,000 Facebook friends Far beyond the carrying capacity of Dunbar’s Number source: http://www.intersperience.com/ May, 2011
  • 20. BUT THE AVERAGE USER HAS ONLY 130 FRIENDS DUNBAR’S NUMBER source: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics August, 2011
  • 21. FRIENDS BY AGE: LIFE STAGE Group Acceptance Self Actualization & Intimacy The social networking life cycle 1,000 1000 is to move from one of seeking group acceptance to one of self identity and intimacy. 750 College As we get older we move towards smaller more intimate 500450 groups and individual passions. Early Adult Life Middle Age Jr High/High School 250 150 Older users will never have 75 large networks because they 20 have moved beyond the group 0 acceptance phase of life. 13-16 YO 17-22 YO 30+ YO 40+ YO 50+ YO 21 source: intersperience, gene keenan
  • 22. SO, SIZE DOES MATTER: SMALLER NETWORKS GET MORE LOVE Established Relationships 40 One-Way Communication Reciprocal Communication # OF PEOPLE 30 Despite large network sizes. Reciprocal communication 20 remains with a small intimate group 10 0 NETWORK SIZE 0 100 200 300 400 500 22 source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
  • 23. Q: WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THOSE HIGH REACH ONE-WAY CONVERSATIONS?
  • 24. ERIC BERNE Creator of Transactional Analysis Pastime Conversations A pastime is a series of transactions that is complementary (reciprocal), semi-ritualistic, and is mainly intended as a time-structuring activity: Small talk. Pastime conversations are low engagement but of high value from a ritualistic standpoint Example (while running into someone on street): Talking about the weather Headline news http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transactional_analysis
  • 25. THE RITUAL IS THE SAME TODAY BUT THE CHANNELS HAVE CHANGED YESTERDAY: IN-PERSON TODAY: VIRTUAL Talking about the weather Twitter updates General small talk Facebook updates Content from analog Content from digital+ LOW REACH HIGH REACH BUT BOTH ARE LOW ENGAGEMENT 25
  • 26. MOST SOCIAL INTERACTIONS ARE “PASTIME” CONVERSATIONS Average User* “Sharing Information” Low Engagement “announcements” Broadcast out but typically not read, commented or synthesized* The primary difference between analog and digital ritual conversations: digital are typically not reciprocal (because they are not in-person) *You can most easily see this in twitter where information is broadcast and forwarded but rarely analyzed for accuracy. At the end of the day it’s not the content that matters but the ritual of sharing it. 26 source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
  • 27. BUT BASED ON THIS RESEARCH THEN FACEBOOK ADVERTS SHOULD NOT BE EFFECTIVE FACEBOOK CTR GOOGLE ADWORDS CTR 0.011-0.165% 0.4-0.7% but... conversions were practically non-existent 27 source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
  • 28. Q: WHAT DOES WORK?
  • 29. FIRST: WHAT ARE CONSUMERS PERCEPTIONS OF MEDIA? Emails I signed up for Editorial content such as a newspaper article Ads in magazines Brand websites 4% 3% 11% 3% 6% 3% 4% 4% 4% 36% 46% 12% 34% 49% 22% 52% 17% 31% 49% 11% Ads served in search engine results Products shown embedded in TV Ads on mobile devices Ads in radio 2% 7% 2% 2% 3% 6% universal in 19% 52% 19% 15% 53% 18% 11% 11% 50% 22% 15% 24% 51% 16% lack of trust Online video ads Online banner ads Ads on social networks Ads on TV 2% 2% 2% 7% 3% 17% 52% 20% 9% 14% 51% 23% 11% 13% 48% 24% 13% 26% 45% 19% Trust Completely Trust Somewhat Neither Trust nor Distrust Don’t Trust Much Don’t Trust At All 29 Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
  • 30. INDIVIDUAL relationships and collective wisdom however DO WORK RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PEOPLE I KNOW CONSUMER OPINIONS POSTED ONLINE note drop off between #1 #2 4% 2% 2% 1% 18% 58% 21% 45% 38% 10% friends and just consumers Trust Completely Trust Somewhat Neither Trust nor Distrust Don’t Trust Much Don’t Trust At All 30 Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
  • 31. FACEBOOK REALIZES THIS WHICH IS WHY THEY DO THIS: Facebook attempts to be a “friend” by selling ads based on friend likes 31
  • 32. GE STUDY PROVES CONSUMERS RESPOND TO SHARED CONTENT Research proves that close relationship recommendations is the best way to win 32 source: http://adage.com/article/digital/ge-study-proves-consumers-respond-shared-content/232324/
  • 34. MEASURING CORE FANS ON FACEBOOK CORE FAN: Any fan whose comment count is higher than the average is a “core fan”. This number ranges from 1.14 for Bob Marley to 2.03 for Bob Marley. WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT: Unless a fan actively participates in a brand’s Facebook Page and their activity on the Page has been continuous, the brand’s status updates will cease appearing in the fan’s Facebook news stream. 34 source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
  • 35. Q: WHY ARE CORE FAN COUNTS SO LOW IF BRAND X OR ARTIST Y IS A PASSION POINT?
  • 36. Campfire Versus Fireworks Theory Brand X or Artist Y might be a passion point but when that interaction takes place in Facebook it becomes less authentic because it’s not close and intimate Close intimate lasting Group experiences, exciting conversations but not intimate source: Sam Huston
  • 37. IMPLICATIONS FACT: Young users are moving to mobile at an accelerated rate RESULT: Mobile allows casual connections to be maintained in a one way “shout out” (pastime conversation) using video posting while engaging in deeper connections with “true friends” and personal passions through smaller more intimate networks Facebook moves from ‘Passion Point” to “Utility” 37
  • 39. FACEBOOK FACT: Young users activity already mirrors that of older users once you strip away the “Maintained and One-Way” relationships RESULT: Young users will maintain large networks through pastime conversations but will have a smaller group of close connections (either through FB or a another third party passion site/app). 39
  • 41. THE PATH FORWARD INSIGHT SOLUTION Brands need to move beyond Pastime type For social this means conversations with consumers and into deeper • Being mobile which means understanding where more meaningful relationships with them mobile is going This means: • Going smaller by focusing on passions like: • Understanding your consumer • Instagram • Tumblr • Knowing their passions • Path • Relating to those passions • etc. • Being where they are • Providing services instead of advertising. The best • Providing value way to do this is with mobile • Creating opportunities to share instead of advertising to 41
  • 44. MOBILE INTERNET IS NOW FREE AND EVERYWHERE Observation: Smartphones are now “free” Implication: Acceleration of the mobile consumer 44 Source:AT&T / August 2011
  • 45. IN 12 MONTHS MOBILE WILL OVERTAKE ONLINE NOW 1 YEAR FROM NOW 1% 3% 1% 12% 11% 7% 7% 2% 18% One year from now mobile devices combined will match 19% PC/Laptops as people’s preferred 77% 42% internet access device E-Reader Mobile Phone Personal PC/Laptop Tablet Device Through my TV Work PC/Laptop WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS YOUR FAVORITE DEVICE TO ACCESS THE INTERNET 45 Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
  • 46. MOBILE DRIVING SOCIAL NETWORKING GROWTH April 2008 April 2009 April 2010 Category # of Unique Users # of Unique Users # of Unique Users (000) (000) (000) 500% Social 5,270 13,905 27,007 Networking 412% 375% Search 11,817 24,846 35,573 Entertainment 9,687 17,330 25,791 250% 218% 125% 0% Social Networking Search 46 source: nielsen - april 2010
  • 47. MOBILE SOCIAL NETWORKING APP USEAGE IS SOARING 240% since last year. Pastime social networking activity is quickly moving to mobile 47 source: comscore - June, 2010
  • 48. LARGE MOBILE COMPANIES 2x more active than desktop-only users Mobile = 50% of total active users, 200 MM mobile active vs. 25% Y/Y users vs. 50MM in 9/09 Mobile = 40% of all tweets 50% of all users subscribe on 100MM mobile users vs. 50MM Y/Y mobile 48 Source: KPCB / June 2011
  • 49. 60% Of all Smartphone owners have used a location based service source: Pew Research Center’s Internet and American Life Project
  • 50. HOW CAN BRANDS REACH CRM for those users who “Like” the brand can be used to generate the “friend recommendation” (most effective) brands want. EXAMPLE: Lauren Mary Banana Republic sends Lauren a coupon for Like Works shopping and tells It leverages a brand Likes Banana her she can bring a advocate to act as a Republic They go shopping sales person on the friend: She brings her friend Mary. brands behalf 50
  • 51. Facebook counts as “active” users who go to its Web site or its Title Line One mobile site. But it also counts an entire other category of people Secondary title line who don’t click on facebook.com as “active users.” According to the company, a user is considered active if he or she “took an action to share content or activity with his or her Facebook friends or connections via a third-party Web site that is integrated with Facebook.” Come again? In other words, every time you press the “Like” button on NFL.com, for example, you’re an “active user” of Facebook. Perhaps you share a Twitter message on your Facebook account? That would make you an active Facebook user, too. Have you ever shared music on Spotify with a friend? You’re an active Facebook user. If you’ve logged into Huffington Post using your Facebook account and left a comment on the site — and your comment was automatically shared on Facebook — you, too, are an “active user” even though you’ve never actually spent any time on facebook.com. 51 http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/those-millions-on-facebook-some-may-not-actually-visit/

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