Title: 글로벌 금융위기 이후 주택정책의 새로운 패러다임 모색(상) Material Type: Report Publisher: 서울:KDI Date: 2012-10 Series Title; No: 연구보고서 / 2012-01 ISBN: 978-89-8063-666-2(94320); 978-89-8063-665-5(세트) Pages: 430 Language: Korean File Type: Documents Original Format: pdf Subject: Economy < Macroeconomics Territorial Development Policy < General Holding: KDI; KDI School of Public Policy and Management

1. 글로벌 금융위기 이후
주택정책의
새로운 패러다임 모색(상)
연구보고서 2012-01
조만ㆍ차문중편2012
글로벌금융위기이후주택정책의
새로운패러다임모색(상)
korea development institute
조 만
차문중 편
ISBN 978-89-8063-666-2
ISBN 978-89-8063-665-5(세트)
연구시리즈_조만, 차문중 편(상)_ 2012-01.indd 1 2012.10.4 11:29:38 AM

2. 글로벌 금융위기 이후
주택정책의
새로운 패러다임 모색(상)
연구시리즈_조만, 차문중 편(상)_ 2012-01.indd 2 2012.10.4 11:29:38 AM

3. 글로벌 금융위기 이후
주택정책의 새로운 패러다임 모색(상)
조만⋅차문중 편
연구보고서 2012-01

5. 발간사
최근의 글로벌 금융위기는 부동산시장의 거대한 순환성이 실물경제의 침
체 및 금융기관의 부실로 이어지고, 더 나아가서 세계경제의 동반침체 리스
크를 수반할 수 있음을 보여 준다. 1990년대 말에 시작된 미국⋅유럽 주택
시장의 호황기는 2000년대 중반 이후 서브프라임 모기지의 부실화를 동반
하며 장기 침체로 경착륙하였고, 이는 금융기관의 자산건전성 악화, 실물경
제 침체, 국제 교역의 하락, 유로존 국가들의 재정위기 그리고 다시 세계경
제의 동반침체 위험으로 이어지고 있다. 금융위기 이전 부동산 버블의 관리
에 있어서 ‘선의의 방관(benign neglect)’과 사후대응의 정책기조를 유지해
왔던 미국⋅유럽 국가들은 부동산시장발 시스템리스크의 파급효과와 이에
따르는 사회적 비용을 경험하게 되었고, 이에 따라 부동산시장 버블의 측정
및 사전 관리방안이 학계와 정책서클을 중심으로 활발하게 논의되고 있다.
이와 달리 우리나라는 역사적으로 부동산시장에 매우 빈번하게, 그리고
매우 다양한 정책수단을 통하여 개입해 왔다. 최근의 글로벌 금융위기를 계
기로 그동안 사용되어 왔던 정책수단들이 과연 장⋅단기적으로 부동산시장
의 안정화에 어느 정도 기여하였는지, 더 나아가 거시경제의 안정화와 ‘시스
템리스크’의 관리에는 어느 정도의 효과가 있었는지, 그리고 중⋅저소득층의
주거복지 측면에서는 어떤 효과가 있었는지 등에 대한 문제는 향후 심도 있
는 연구를 통하여 재조명되어야 할 사안이다. 또한 현재 진행 중인 인구⋅
사회 구조의 변화, 외환위기 이후 빠르게 확대되고 있는 부동산금융부문, 전
세의 월세 전환 등 부동산시장의 환경 변화에 대응하기 위한 새로운 정책

6. 발간사
패러다임의 모색도 시의적절한 연구과제라고 하겠다.
본 보고서에는 글로벌 금융위기가 우리나라 부동산시장에 주는 시사점을
정리하고, 이를 기초로 하여 주택정책의 새로운 과제를 발굴하기 위한 목적
으로 KDI가 지난 1년간 국내외 전문가들로 연구팀을 구성하여 진행한 프로
젝트의 결과물을 수록하였다. 총 16편의 논문을 6개 부로 나누었으며, 분량
상 두 권의 보고서로 분권하여 편집하였다.
상권의 제Ⅰ부(1장)에서는 연구 주제와 결과를 요약한 서론이 포함되었다.
제Ⅱ부(2장~5장)에서는 주택가격, 주택투자, 주택대출로 대표되는 주택시장
의 내생변수가 민간소비, 건설투자, 금융부문 채널을 통하여 거시경제에 미
치는 연결고리에 대한 실증분석을 수행하고 이를 기초로 정책시사점을 논의
하였다. 구체적으로 주택시장⋅거시경제의 연계성이 1990년대의 외환위기와
최근의 글로벌 금융위기를 거치면서 어떤 변화를 보여 왔고, 주택실물시장
과 금융시장 간의 연결고리는 무엇이며, 주택가격 및 이자율 상승 등의 충
격효과는 어느 정도인지가 주요 논점으로 다루어졌다. 제Ⅲ부(6장~9장)에서
는 미국⋅유럽의 2000년대 주택대출 순환성 사례를 기초로 하여 우리나라
주택담보대출시장에서의 정책과제를 분석하였다. 현재 이들 국가에서 논의
되고 있는 거시⋅미시 건전성 규제수단은 무엇이고, 주택금융상품, 대출심
사기준, 자금조달, 규제수단의 측면에서 우리나라에 주는 시사점은 무엇이
며, LTV⋅DTI 규제 등 금융위기 이후 관심이 높아지고 있는 거시건전성 관
리수단의 효과는 무엇인가에 대한 문제가 다루어졌다. 하권의 제Ⅳ부(10
장~12장)에서는 우리나라 부동산개발금융시장에서의 제도 개선과 관련된
분석을 수행하였고, 부동산 PF대출 사태 이후 우리나라 개발금융부문의 선
진화를 위한 정책과제는 무엇이고, 이와 관련된 외국의 시장⋅제도적 요인
의 시사점은 무엇인가가 논의되었다. 제Ⅴ부(13장~15장)에서는 우리나라 임
대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책개선 과제에 관한 연구를 수행하였다. 특별
히 전세의 월세 전환, 인구⋅사회 구조의 변화, 주택가격 상승에 대한 기대

7. 심리 하락 등의 시장 추세를 감안할 때 우리나라 임대주택시장에 대한 향후
전망과 정책대응은 무엇인가가 논의되었다. 마지막으로 제VI부(16장)에서는
우리나라의 주거복지 현황 및 추이를 정리하고, 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책
수단에 대해서 논의하였다.
본 보고서의 분석은 향후 우리나라 주택정책의 기조가 가격안정 자체보다
는 주택시장 변동성의 증폭요인에 대한 적절한 모니터링 및 규제를 통한 주
택시장 및 거시경제의 안정화를 이루는 동시에, 다양해지고 있는 중⋅저소
득층 소비자의 주택수요를 충족시키기 위한 주거안정 및 주거복지 구축이
지향해야 될 방향임을 강조하였다. 또한 시장안정화의 추구에 있어서도 부
동산 금융상품 및 대출기관의 건전성 제고와 함께 한계차입자에 대한 금융
포용의 확대도 무게를 두어야 할 정책과제로 논의하였다.
금번 연구에 참여한 연구진은 다음과 같이 구성되었다. 먼저 제Ⅰ부에 요
약되어 있는 연구의 방향과 중점과제는 본 과제의 공동 책임을 맡은 조만
KDI 국제정책대학원 교수(KDI 실물자산연구팀장 겸직)와 차문중 KDI 선임
연구위원이 집필하였으며, 이어지는 우리나라 주택시장과 거시경제의 연계
성에 대한 실증분석 및 정책시사점은 서승환 연세대학교 교수, 김영일 KDI
연구위원, 민인식 경희대학교 교수, Gabriel Lee Regensburg 대학교 교수가
집필하였다. 제Ⅱ부 주택금융시스템의 안정적인 발전을 위한 정책방안은 조
만 KDI 국제정책대학원 교수, 송인호 KDI 연구위원, Tyler Yang IFE Group
대표, Hans Joachim Dübel Finpolconsult.de 대표가 집필하였다. 제Ⅲ부 부
동산개발금융시장의 개선방안은 손재영 건국대학교 교수, Min Hwang
George Washington 대학교 교수, Chin-Oh Chang National Chengchi 대학
교 교수가 집필하였다. 제Ⅳ부 임대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책과제는 김
경환 서강대학교 교수, 이용만 한성대학교 교수, 이창무 한양대학교 교수가
집필진으로 참여하였다. 마지막으로 제Ⅴ부 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책방안
은 정의철 건국대학교 교수가 집필하였다.

8. 발간사
본 보고서의 저자들은 연구의 수행에 있어서 많은 조언과 격려를 아끼지
않으신 본원의 김주훈 부원장, 고영선 연구본부장, 조병구 경영지원본부장,
강동수 거시⋅금융부장, 그리고 좋은 논평을 주신 원 내외의 많은 검토자들
에게 진심으로 감사를 드린다. 연구의 계획단계에서부터 수고를 아끼지 않
은 김현아 연구원과 김현섭 연구원, 이준용 연구원, 신형섭 연구원, 정지영
연구원, 김현애 연구행정원에게도 감사를 드린다.
아무쪼록 본 연구가 우리나라의 부동산⋅거시경제 연계성에 대한 연구 및
이와 관련된 제반 정책과제를 발굴하고, 향후 후속연구의 장을 마련하는 데
있어서 작게나마 기여하기를 기대한다. 마지막으로 본 보고서의 내용은 저
자들의 의견이며 본원의 공식견해가 아님을 밝혀 둔다.
2012년 6월
한국개발연구원 원장
현 오 석

9. 목차
상권
발간사
제Ⅰ부 서론
제1장 연구의 논점 및 요약 (조만⋅차문중) ························································ 3
제1절 서 론 ····································································································· 3
제2절 연구의 논점 ························································································· 11
1. 주택시장 추이 및 시사점 ·································································· 11
2. 연구의 논점 ························································································ 16
제3절 연구의 주요 내용 ················································································ 20
1. 주택시장⋅거시경제의 연계성 분석 ················································· 20
2. 주택금융시스템의 안정적인 발전방안 ·············································· 22
3. 부동산개발금융시장의 개선방안 ······················································· 25
4. 임대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책과제 ············································ 26
5. 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책방안 ······················································· 28
참고문헌 ·········································································································· 30

10. 제Ⅱ부 주택시장·거시경제의 연계성 분석
제2장 글로벌 금융위기와 부동산과 거시경제 연계성의 변화 (서승환) ····· 35
제1절 서 론 ··································································································· 35
제2절 문헌 고찰 ···························································································· 37
1. 소비 ····································································································· 37
2. 건설투자 ······························································································ 39
3. 주택가격 ······························································································ 40
4. 우리나라의 경우에 대한 문헌 고찰 ·················································· 43
제3절 거시경제 연계성에 관한 미시적 분석 ··············································· 51
1. 민간소비와 주택가격 ········································································· 51
2. 건설투자와 주택가격 ········································································· 54
3. 주택가격의 변화 ················································································· 55
제4절 주택시장의 거시계량모형 ··································································· 61
1. 자료 ····································································································· 61
2. 모형의 추정 결과 ··············································································· 63
3. 추정 결과의 적합도 ··········································································· 69
4. 모의실험 ······························································································ 69
제5절 요약 및 결론 ······················································································· 71
참고문헌 ·········································································································· 75
[부록] 추정의 적합도 ······················································································ 84
제3장 우리나라 주택부문과 경기변동과의 관련성에 대한 실증분석:
주거용 건설투자를 중심으로 (김영일) ···················································· 89
제1절 서 론 ··································································································· 89
목차

11. 제2절 한국경제의 경기순환변동과 경기침체 ··············································· 91
제3절 주택가격 및 가계신용과 경기변동과의 관련성 ································· 93
제4절 주택투자의 순환변동과 거시경제: 개관 ············································ 96
제5절 GDP 증가율에 대한 주택투자의 기여도 평가:
경기침체기를 중심으로 ······································································· 98
1. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도 ················································ 98
2. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 추세와 순환변동 ············· 101
3. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 누적 순환변동 ················· 104
4. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 평균 누적순환변동:
경기침체기를 중심으로 ···································································· 108
5. 경기침체기별 GDP 증가율 둔화에 대한 항목별 기여도 비교 ······ 111
제6절 본 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구방향에 대한 논의 ····························· 112
제7절 결론: 요약 및 정책적 시사점 ··························································· 115
참고문헌 ········································································································· 117
제4장 주택시장과 주택금융시장의 구조모형 분석 (민인식) ························ 120
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 120
제2절 주택시장의 수요-공급 모형 ····························································· 122
제3절 주택금융시장모형 ·············································································· 126
제4절 실증분석모형 추정과 결과 해석 ······················································ 132
1. 주택시장모형 추정 ··········································································· 133
2. 주택금융시장모형 추정 ····································································· 141
제5절 주택금융변수 변화에 대한 시뮬레이션 ············································ 147
1. 이자율 상승이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 ········································ 147
2. 주택금융제약( ) 변화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 ········· 151
3. Credit Condition Index가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 ···················· 155

12. 4. 시뮬레이션 결과 요약 ······································································ 160
제6절 결론 및 정책적 시사점 ····································································· 162
참고문헌 ········································································································· 165
제5장 유럽 국가의 주택 및 거시경제: 신용경로, 위험(리스크) 그리고
통화충격의 역할 (Victor Dorofeenko⋅Gabriel S. Lee⋅
Kevin D. Salyer) ························································································ 166
제1절 서론 및 요약 ····················································································· 166
제2절 최근 유럽 주택시장의 전개: 현황 ··················································· 171
1. 주거용 건물투자 ··············································································· 171
2. 가계부채 ···························································································· 171
3. 이자율 ································································································ 173
4. LTV ···································································································· 175
제3절 모형: 주택시장, 금융중개기관 및 통화정책 ···································· 175
1. 주택모형에서의 통화 및 화폐선불제약: 가계 ································ 176
2. 불확실성을 포함한 신용채널 ··························································· 180
3. 정부 예산제한 ··················································································· 185
4. 모형의 최종 공식 ············································································· 185
제4절 실증적 결과 ······················································································· 186
1. 캘리브레이션 ····················································································· 186
2. 역동성(Dynamics) ············································································· 193
제5절 결 론 ·································································································· 199
참고문헌 ········································································································· 201
목차

13. 제Ⅲ부 주택금융시스템의 안정적인 발전방안
제6장 주택금융과 거시⋅미시 건전성 규제: 시장지표 및
정책개발을 위한 제도적⋅실증적 분석 (조만) ··································· 207
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 207
제2절 주택대출 및 주택가격 추세 ······························································ 211
1. 주택담보대출시장 현황 ···································································· 211
2. 우리나라 주택가격의 순환성 패턴 ··················································· 215
제3절 우리나라 주택금융시스템의 평가 ····················································· 220
1. 주택금융시스템의 미시적 구조 ······················································· 220
2. 대출상품 측면에서의 평가 ······························································ 222
3. 대출심사기준 측면에서의 평가 ······················································· 224
4. 자금조달 측면에서의 평가 ······························································ 227
5. 규제 측면에서의 평가 ······································································ 230
6. 주택금융시스템의 미시적 분석: 요약 ·············································· 233
제4절 시장 모니터링을 위한 지표개발 ······················································ 233
1. 시장 펀더멘털의 모니터링 ······························································ 233
2. CCI를 통한 시장 모니터링 ····························································· 237
3. 신용리스크지표를 통한 시장 모니터링 ··········································· 241
제5절 정책제언 및 결언 ·············································································· 243
참고문헌 ········································································································· 249
[부록] ············································································································· 254
제7장 주택금융 및 신용채널의 거시경제 연관성에 대한 분석 (송인호) ··258
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 258

14. 1. 기존 문헌의 고찰 ············································································· 259
2. 주택의 특성 ······················································································ 261
3. VAR을 통한 주택가격과 거시경제의 상호 연계성 ······················· 264
4. 본 장의 구성 ····················································································· 268
제2절 모 형 ·································································································· 268
1. 신용의 제약을 받지 않는 소비자 ··················································· 270
2. 신용의 제약을 받는 소비자 ···························································· 271
3. 기업가 ································································································ 273
4. 최종소비재 공급자 ··········································································· 274
5. 중앙은행 ···························································································· 275
6. 일반균형을 위한 정상 상태 ···························································· 275
7. 캘리브레이션과 추정 ········································································ 276
제3절 시뮬레이션의 결과 ············································································ 279
1. 시뮬레이션을 통한 주택가격의 전이과정 ······································ 279
2. 주택가격 상승과 일반 소비 ···························································· 280
3. 긴축통화정책에서의 담보대출비율(LTV)의 변화 ····························· 282
제4절 결어: 연구 결과의 요약과 정책적 시사점 ······································· 286
1. 연구 결과의 요약 ············································································· 286
2. 정책적 시사점 ··················································································· 287
참고문헌 ········································································································· 290
[부록] ············································································································· 293
제8장 주택담보대출 신용위험의 측정과 관리: 글로벌 금융위기 이후의
추세와 신흥시장국에 대한 교훈을 중심으로 (Tyler T. Yang⋅
Jessie Y. Zhang) ······················································································· 298
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 298
목차

15. 제2절 모기지 신용위험의 측정 ··································································· 300
1. 모기지 신용위험지표 ········································································ 300
2. 사전 위험평가 ··················································································· 304
3. 손실의 최소화: 후발적 위험의 최소화 ············································ 306
제3절 위험에 기반한 자본규제 ··································································· 307
1. 최소자본 결정방법 ··········································································· 307
2. 방법에 대한 평가 ·············································································· 315
제4절 글로벌 금융위기 이후의 주택금융정책 규제 ··································· 319
1. 규제개혁의 동향 ··············································································· 319
2. 위험분담과 적정 주거용 모기지(QRM) ·········································· 320
3. 경기역행적 완충장치 ········································································ 327
4. 시장의 위험분담 ··············································································· 334
제5절 결 론 ·································································································· 337
참고문헌 ········································································································· 340
제9장 모기지 신용위기의 결정요인: 미국, 유럽 모기지시장의
비교 분석 (Hans-Joachim Dübel) ························································· 342
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 342
1. 미국, 유럽의 모기지 신용 버블과 금융위기 ································· 342
2. 모기지시장 구조 및 규제의 영향 – 주요 가설 ····························· 344
3. 연구의 구성 ······················································································· 344
제2절 미국, 유럽 모기지시장 구조 및 규제의 비교 분석 ························ 346
1. 모기지 금융시스템의 설계 ······························································ 346
2. 금융 및 보험 규제 ··········································································· 353
3. 경쟁환경 ···························································································· 359
4. 소비자 보호규정 ··············································································· 361

16. 5. 주택구입능력정책 ·············································································· 372
제3절 금융안정정책에 대한 교훈 ································································ 377
1. 미국과 유럽의 관점 ········································································· 377
2. 유럽 내의 상황 ················································································· 384
3. 한국을 위한 교훈 ·············································································· 385
제4절 결 론 ·································································································· 390
참고문헌 ········································································································· 393
하권
제Ⅳ부 부동산개발금융시장의 개선방안
제10장 부동산개발금융의 선진화 방안 (손재영) ···············································3
제1절 부동산개발금융의 의의 ······································································3
제2절 한국형 PF대출의 특징과 문제점 ·······················································5
1. 한국형 PF대출의 특징 ······································································5
2. 한국형 PF구조하에서의 역할분담 ····················································6
3. 한국형 PF의 문제점 ········································································13
4. PF 부실 원인에 대한 인식: AHP 분석 ··········································18
제3절 개발금융의 개선방안 ········································································23
1. 시장환경 변화 ···················································································23
2. 개발금융 개선방안에 관한 선행연구 ·············································25
3. 개발금융 개선방안에 대한 인식조사 ·············································26
목차

17. 4. 주요 개선방안의 심층 검토 ·····························································32
제4절 결 론 ·································································································48
참고문헌 ········································································································50
[부록] ·············································································································52
제11장 부동산개발금융: 2000년대 미국 부동산시장의 사례 연구
(Min Hwang) ·······························································································54
제1절 서 론 ·································································································54
제2절 부동산개발의 경제적 영향 ·······························································56
제3절 1980년대의 저축대부조합 위기 ·······················································59
1. 저축대부조합 위기의 역사 ······························································59
2. 서브프라임 위기와의 비교 ·······························································61
제4절 부동산개발과 유동성 ········································································63
제5절 미국에서의 부동산개발과정 ······························································64
1. 부동산개발단계 ·················································································65
2. 부동산개발과정을 진행하기 위한 자금조달 ····································68
제6절 부동산개발 시 자기자본조달 ····························································69
1. 투자자와 개발업자 사이에 현금흐름 분배 ····································71
2. 부동산개발 시의 기관투자가 ···························································72
제7절 부동산개발 시 부채를 통한 자본조달 ·············································75
1. 장기 대출 ··························································································75
2. 단기 대출 ··························································································78
3. 단기 대출 성과에 대한 실증분석 ····················································82
제8절 정책적 합의 ·······················································································92
1. 인수기준 감독 ···················································································93
2. 감시과정(대출 개시 후)의 감시 ·······················································94

18. 제9절 결 론 ·································································································95
참고문헌 ········································································································97
제12장 대만의 건설금융: 현황 및 정책제도 (Chin-Oh Chang⋅
Ming-Chi Chen) ·······················································································100
제1절 서 론 ································································································100
제2절 부동산 사이클 ·················································································103
1. 첫 번째 주기(1972~74년) ······························································103
2. 두 번째 주기(1978~80년) ·····························································104
3. 세 번째 주기(1987~89년) ·····························································105
4. 네 번째 주기(2004~11년) ·····························································105
제3절 건설산업의 발전과 운영 ·································································106
1. 건설산업의 발전 역사 ····································································106
2. 주택투자 및 건설산업 ····································································108
3. 프로젝트 건설방식들 ······································································113
4. 건설회사의 형태 및 건축절차 ························································113
제4절 건설산업의 파이낸싱 ·······································································116
1. 발전 역사 ························································································116
2. 건설산업의 자금조달방식 ·······························································117
3. 건설업의 주요 불이행 위험 ···························································121
제5절 건설산업의 특징 및 문제점 ···························································122
제6절 건설산업에 대한 규제 및 정책 ······················································128
1. 건설산업의 과잉투자를 억제하기 위한 정책적 방안 ··················129
2. 건설사의 폐업을 막기 위한 정책적 방안 ·····································129
제7절 건설투자 및 자금조달에 영향을 미치는
요인에 대한 실증분석 ·······································································130
목차

19. 1. 문헌연구 ··························································································130
2. 실증모형 ··························································································132
3. 자료분석 ··························································································133
4. 실증분석 결과 ·················································································133
제8절 결론 및 함축적 의미 ······································································136
참고문헌 ······································································································139
제Ⅴ부 임대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책과제
제13장 임대주택 시장과 정책 (김경환) ····························································145
제1절 서 론 ································································································145
제2절 우리나라 임대주택시장의 추이 ······················································147
1. 주택점유형태 ···················································································147
2. 임대주택부문 ···················································································151
제3절 외국의 임대주택정책 ·······································································158
1. 임대주택정책의 주요 수단 ·····························································158
2. 주요 외국의 임대주택정책과 시사점 ·············································159
제4절 우리나라 임대주택정책의 현황과 과제 ··········································167
1. 임대주택정책의 현황 ······································································167
2. 임대주택정책의 과제 ······································································171
제5절 요약 및 결론 ···················································································179
참고문헌 ······································································································183
제14장 전월세시장의 변화에 대한 이론적 분석과 정책적 시사점:
임차인 관점을 중심으로 (이용만) ························································186

20. 제1절 서 론 ································································································186
제2절 우리나라 전세제도의 진화과정과 현 상황 ····································189
1. 우리나라 전세제도의 기원 ·····························································189
2. 우리나라 전세제도의 진화과정과 현황 ·········································191
제3절 전세시장의 행태 분석을 위한 이론적 검토 ··································200
1. 선행연구에 대한 검토 ····································································200
2. 이론적 검토 ·····················································································203
제4절 실증분석 ··························································································229
1. 전월세전환율의 장기균형 ·······························································229
2. 임차인의 전월세 선택 ····································································232
제5절 전월세시장의 변화와 정책적 시사점 ·············································235
1. 전월세시장의 변화에 대한 해석 ···················································235
2. 정책적 시사점 ·················································································239
3. 연구의 한계 ·····················································································241
참고문헌 ······································································································243
제15장 임대인의 임대계약형태 선택모형: 포트폴리오 이론에
기초하여 (이창무) ·····················································································246
제1절 서 론 ································································································246
제2절 국내 주택시장 분석의 틀 및 선행연구 고찰 ································248
1. 국내 주택시장의 특이성 ································································248
2. 국내 주택시장의 3차원 구조 ························································251
3. 주택임대시장과 금융시장과의 연결성 ··········································253
4. 주택임대시장 내 부분균형모형 ·····················································258
5. 서울시 아파트 투자수익률 및 위험도 분석 사례 ·························260
제3절 이론적 해석 ·····················································································264
목차

21. 1. 레버리지 위험을 고려한 임대시장균형 모형 ·······························264
2. 개별 임대인의 최적 보증금 비중 선택모형 ··································271
제4절 기초실증분석 ···················································································279
1. 분석 자료 ························································································279
2. 임대인의 은행대출 행태 ································································281
3. 임대가구 특성별 보증금 비중 선택 ···············································283
제5절 보증금 비중 선택요인 실증분석 ····················································285
1. 실증분석모형 ···················································································286
2. 분석 결과 ························································································290
제6절 요약 및 정책적 함의 ······································································295
1. 요약 ··································································································295
2. 정책적 함의 ·····················································································296
참고문헌 ······································································································300
제Ⅵ부 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책방안
제16장 주거복지 현황과 정책과제 (정의철) ····················································305
제1절 서 론 ································································································305
제2절 주거복지의 개념과 분석방향 ··························································307
제3절 주거수준 현황과 주택수요 분석 ····················································308
1. 주거수준 현황 ·················································································308
2. 주택수요 분석 ·················································································320
제4절 주거복지정책 현황과 평가 ·····························································329
1. 주거복지정책 체계 ··········································································329
2. 주거복지정책의 평가 ······································································335

22. 제5절 주거복지정책의 방향과 과제 ··························································346
1. 공공임대주택의 지속적 공급 ·························································346
2. 민간부문의 적극적 활용 ································································348
3. 저소득층 지원 프로그램의 형평성 제고 ······································350
4. 자립형 주거복지시스템 구축 ·························································351
5. 생애주기별 종합적 주거복지정책 수립 ········································353
6. 주거복지정책의 시장친화성 강화 ··················································354
참고문헌 ······································································································356
ABSTRACT ····················································································································358
목차

23. ◈ 표 목 차 (상)
<표 1- 1> 국민 주거여건의 변화 추이 ········································································· 12
<표 1- 2> 지역별(수도권, 비수도권) 인구 추이 및 비중 ············································· 12
<표 1- 3> 국가별 실질주택가격 비교: 기초통계 ·························································· 14
<표 2- 1> 민간소비와 주택가격 변화의 기간별 상관관계 ············································ 53
<표 2- 2> 각국 실질경제성장률의 기간별 상관관계 ···················································· 58
<표 2- 3> 분산분해 분석의 결과 ·················································································· 60
<표 2- 4> 변수 이름 ····································································································· 62
<표 2- 5> 세계 수입증가율 ··························································································· 63
<표 2- 6> 추정된 모형의 평균평방오차(RMSE) ···························································· 69
<표 2- 7> 주택가격 10% 상승의 장기효과 ··································································· 70
<표 3- 1> GDP, 주택가격, 가계신용 순환변동의 상관계수(1986Q1~2011Q2) ············· 94
<표 3- 2> 스트레스 시나리오별 주택가격 상승률 ························································ 96
<표 3- 3> 실질GDP와 지출항목별 순환변동의 변동성 비율과 상관계수 ···················· 98
<표 3- 4> 경기침체 이전과 경기침체 기간 중 GDP 증가율 둔화에 기여한
주요 항목 ··································································································· 112
<표 4- 1> 기초통계량 ·································································································· 134
<표 4- 2> 장기 주택수요함수 추정 ············································································· 135
<표 4- 3> 주택소유모형 추정: 프로빗모형 ································································· 136
<표 4- 4> 주택소유 선택모형: 다항로짓모형 ······························································ 139
<표 4- 5> 기초통계량 ·································································································· 139

24. <표 4- 6> 주택가격모형 추정 ······················································································ 140
<표 4- 7> 기초통계량 ·································································································· 141
<표 4- 8> 신규주택 공급함수 추정 ············································································· 141
<표 4- 9> 주요 변수들의 기초통계량 ········································································· 142
<표 4-10> CCI 모형의 추정 결과 ··············································································· 143
<표 4-11> 주택담보대출 이자율 모형 ········································································· 145
<표 4-12>  모형 ························································································· 146
<표 4-13> 주택담보대출 잔액 변화 ············································································· 148
<표 4-14> 주택매매가격지수 변화 ··············································································· 148
<표 4-15> 장기 주택수요의 변화 ················································································ 149
<표 4-16> 신규주택 공급 변화 ···················································································· 149
<표 4-17> 소유/전세/월세 선택확률 변화: 설명변수 값이 평균에 있다고 가정 ········ 150
<표 4-18> 소유/전세/월세 선택확률 변화: 가구주 연령이 30대인 경우로 가정 ······· 150
<표 4-19> 주택매매가격지수 변화: 시나리오 1 ··························································· 152
<표 4-20> 주택매매가격지수 변화: 시나리오 2 ·························································· 153
<표 4-21> 장기 주택수요의 변화: 시나리오 1 ···························································· 153
<표 4-22> 장기 주택수요의 변화: 시나리오 2 ···························································· 153
<표 4-23> 신규주택 공급 변화: 시나리오 1 ································································ 154
<표 4-24> 신규주택 공급 변화: 시나리오 2 ······························································· 155
<표 4-25> 주택담보대출 잔액 변화: 시나리오 1 ························································· 157
<표 4-26> 주택담보대출 잔액 변화: 시나리오 2 ························································ 157
<표 4-27> 주택매매가격지수 변화: 시나리오 1 ··························································· 157
<표 4-28> 주택매매가격지수 변화: 시나리오 2 ·························································· 157
<표 4-29> 장기 주택수요의 변화: 시나리오 1 ···························································· 159
<표 4-30> 장기 주택수요의 변화: 시나리오 2 ···························································· 159
<표 4-31> 신규주택 공급 변화: 시나리오 1 ································································ 160
표 목 차

25. <표 4-32> 신규주택 공급 변화: 시나리오 2 ······························································· 160
<표 4-33> 시뮬레이션 결과 요약 ················································································ 161
<표 5- 1> 주요 파라미터 ···························································································· 187
<표 5- 2> 중간재 생산기술의 파라미터 ······································································ 188
<표 5- 3> 예측오차 분산분해 ······················································································ 199
<표 6- 1> 가계부채 추이 ···························································································· 212
<표 6- 2> MBS와 CB를 이용한 자금조달방법 ··························································· 229
<표 6- 3> 우리나라 모기지시장에서의 정책과제 ······················································ 234
<표 6- 4> 1단계 추정: CCI 모형 추정 결과(오차수정항 추정) ··································· 239
<표 6- 5> 2단계 추정: CCI 모형 추정 결과(비선형 연립방정식 추정) ······················ 240
<표 6- 6> 실질 주택가격지수 증가율의 Panel VAR 결과 ········································· 241
<표 6- 7> DTI⋅LTV⋅CB등급 간 상호작용(24개월 이내 연체율모형 기준) ············· 245
<부표 6-1> 연체율모형 추정 결과 ················································································ 254
<부표 6-2> 연체율모형 추정 결과(Odd ratio) ······························································ 256
<부표 6-3> 이자율모형 추정 결과 ················································································ 257
<표 7- 1> 적정 시차 선정기준 ···················································································· 265
<표 7- 2> 캘리브레이션 ······························································································ 277
<표 7- 3> 모형 모수 추정 ··························································································· 278
<표 7- 4> 통화정책 모수 추정 ···················································································· 278
<표 7- 5> 전국의 주택점유형태 변화 ········································································· 289
<표 8- 1> 미국의 최소자본 확정 방식 ······································································· 308
<표 8- 2> 대체적 방식의 평가 ···················································································· 318

26. <표 8- 3> 개별 은행의 최소 자본유보 기준 ······························································· 329
<표 8- 4> 최소 추가적 손실부담 분류 범주 ······························································· 333
<표 9- 1> 선진국 모기지시장의 구조적 차이점 ·························································· 352
<표 9- 2> 유럽의 모기지 신용곡선 침투 ···································································· 373
<표 9- 3> 구조적 고(高)차입정책: 주택 수신 방법과 예금의 동기 ···························· 374
<표 9- 4> 모기지 금융체계의 주요 구조적⋅규제적 특징과 위기 관련성:
미국, 유럽의 관점 ······················································································ 378
표 목 차

27. ◈ 그 림 목 차 (상)
[그림 1- 1] 주택-거시경제의 연계성 채널 ··································································· 5
[그림 1- 2] 실질 GDP 증가율, 실질 지가변동률, 실질 주택매매가격 증가율 추이 ·· 13
[그림 1- 3] GDP 대비 모기지대출 잔액 비교(1994~95년, 2008년) ························· 15
[그림 1- 4] 단기외채 및 부동산 PF대출잔액 증가율 추이 ········································· 17
[그림 2- 1] 명목주택가격과 실질주택가격의 움직임 ·················································· 52
[그림 2- 2] 민간소비와 주택가격의 움직임(추세치) ···················································· 53
[그림 2- 3] 민간소비와 주택가격의 움직임(순환변동치) ············································· 53
[그림 2- 4] 건설투자와 주택가격의 움직임 ································································ 55
[그림 2- 5] 우리나라와 미국의 주택매매가격 움직임 ················································· 56
[그림 2- 6] 세계 각국의 실질경제성장률 추이(1991~2000년) ··································· 57
[그림 2- 7] 세계 각국의 실질경제성장률 추이(2001~11년) ········································ 57
[그림 2- 8] 지역 간 주택매매가격 변화의 차이 ························································· 59
[그림 2- 9] 거시계량모형의 흐름도 ············································································· 64
[그림 3- 1] 주택부문 순환변동과 거시경제 순환변동과의 관련성 ····························· 90
[그림 3- 2] 경기동행지수의 순환변동 ········································································· 92
[그림 3- 3] GDP, 주택가격, 가계신용의 순환변동(HP‐filtered cycles) ······················ 94
[그림 3- 4] 스트레스 시나리오별 민간소비에 대한 영향: 기본시나리오 대비
민간소비 변화율 ······················································································· 96
[그림 3- 5] 실질GDP와 실질주택투자의 순환변동 ····················································· 97
[그림 3- 6] GDP 순환변동과 항목별 순환변동의 시차상관계수 ································ 99
[그림 3- 7] GDP 증가율(실질, 계절조정, 전기 대비) ··············································· 100

28. [그림 3- 8] GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도와 추세 ··········································· 100
[그림 3- 9] GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 추세 ··········································· 102
[그림 3-10] GDP 대비 주택투자 비중과 GDP 증가율에 대한 주택투자의
추세적 기여도 ························································································· 102
[그림 3-11] GDP 증가율의 추세 및 순환변동과 GDP 증가율에 대한
항목별 기여도의 추세 및 순환변동의 합 ··············································· 104
[그림 3-12] GDP 증가율의 누적순환변동 ·································································· 105
[그림 3-13] GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 누적순환변동 ····························· 106
[그림 3-14] 경기침체 전후 GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의
평균 누적순환변동(전체 표본기간과 2000년 이후 기간) ······················ 108
[그림 3-15] 경기침체 전후 GDP 증가율에 대한 민간소비 항목별 기여도의
평균 누적순환변동(전체 표본기간과 2000년 이후 기간) ······················ 109
[그림 3-16] 경기침체 전후 GDP 증가율에 대한 건설투자 항목별 기여도의
평균 누적순환변동(전체 표본기간과 2000년 이후 기간) ······················ 110
[그림 3-17] 주택가격 순환변동과 주택투자 순환변동(2000년 이전과 이후 기간) ··· 113
[그림 3-18] 신규주택 건설 중 민간부문 비율 ··························································· 114
[그림 3-19] GDP 대비 무역규모(수출+수입) 비중의 변화 ········································ 114
[그림 4- 1] FDW 모형에서의 주택 수요-공급 ·························································· 123
[그림 4- 2] 주택시장과 주택금융시장의 구조도 ························································ 133
[그림 4- 3] 추정된 CCI ····························································································· 144
[그림 4- 4] 총가계부채와 CCI ··················································································· 144
[그림 4- 5] 주택담보대출 잔액과 CCI 추이 ······························································ 145
[그림 5- 1] 주택가격 변화: 1997년 1월~2011년 2월 ················································ 167
[그림 5- 2] 주거용 건물투자: 1997~2011년 ······························································ 172
그 림 목 차

29. [그림 5- 3] 가계부채: 장기 주택자금대출 ································································· 172
[그림 5- 4] 주택구매자금대출 이자(5년 이상) ·························································· 173
[그림 5- 5] 주택부문을 고려한 경우의 자금순환 ······················································ 174
[그림 5- 6] 생산성 와 리스크 : HP-filtering ···················································· 192
[그림 5- 7] 산출, 민간소비지출, 투자의 충격반응함수: 건설부문 기술충격,
불확실성 충격, 주택선호충격, 통화충격 ················································ 194
[그림 5- 8] Markup House Price, 리스크 프리미엄, 부도율의 충격반응함수:
건설부문 기술충격, 불확실성 충격, 주택 선호 충격, 통화충격 ············ 196
[그림 5- 9] 지가, 주택가격, 차입의 충격반응함수: 건설부문 기술충격,
불확실성 충격, 주택 선호 충격, 통화충격 ············································· 197
[그림 6- 1] 예금취급기관 가계대출의 항목별 분포 ·················································· 213
[그림 6- 2] 금융권역별 가계신용 증가율 ·································································· 213
[그림 6- 3] GDP 대비 모기지대출 잔액 비교(1994~95년, 2008년) ······················· 213
[그림 6- 4] Band-Pass 필터에 의하여 추세선을 제거한 국가별 주택가격
순환주기 ·································································································· 218
[그림 6- 5] DTI⋅LTV 규제와 투기⋅비투기 지역의 실질주택매매가격
증가율 추이 ···························································································· 220
[그림 6- 6] 주택금융시스템의 일반적 구조 ······························································· 221
[그림 6- 7] 금리 종류별 모기지 상품의 국가별 비교 ··············································· 223
[그림 6- 8] 국가별 자금조달 비교 ············································································ 228
[그림 6- 9] DTI, LTV, CB의 Odd Ratio ··································································· 244
[그림 7- 1] 부동산가격과 GDP ················································································· 262
[그림 7- 2] 주택가격 추이 ························································································· 262
[그림 7- 3] 우리나라 가계의 자산구조(2011년) ························································· 262

30. [그림 7- 4] 우리나라의 LTV 추이 ············································································· 263
[그림 7- 5] VAR을 통한 주택가격과 거시경제 간 연계성(촐레스키 충격반응) ········ 266
[그림 7- 6] 대출증가율과 주택가격 상승률 ······························································· 267
[그림 7- 7] 주택담보대출과 소비, GDP: 전년 동기 대비 증가율 ····························· 267
[그림 7- 8] 모형의 경제구조 ····················································································· 269
[그림 7- 9] 주택가격 메커니즘 ·················································································· 273
[그림 7-10] 주택시장과 거시경제 간 채널 ································································ 280
[그림 7-11] 주택가격 상승과 소비 ············································································ 281
[그림 7-12] LTV와 주택가격 ······················································································ 283
[그림 7-13] 긴축통화와 주택가격 ·············································································· 284
[그림 7-14] 긴축통화, 주택가격, LTV ······································································· 285
[그림 8- 1] 대출기간별 FHA 보증 모기지의 평균 조건부 부도율 ··························· 302
[그림 8- 2] QRM 개정기준을 모두 충족하는 대출금 비율의 개시연도별 추이 ······· 322
[그림 8- 3] QRM과 비(非)QRM의 스프레드 ······························································ 323
[그림 8- 4] 최소계약금 증가가 샘플 QRM 기준을 충족하는 대출의
부도율에 미치는 영향 ············································································ 324
[그림 8- 5] 지침에 따른 과거 실적 ··········································································· 330
[그림 8- 6] 대출상품 금리의 변동성 ········································································· 335
[그림 9- 1] 지역별 국제적 자본흐름, 신용 버블의 원인과 결과 ······························ 345
[그림 9- 2] 미국 보험의 자본시장을 통한 유동성 생성 vs. 주택대출 버블을
겪고 있는 유럽의 은행기반 주택금융체제 ············································· 349
[그림 9- 3] 보험기반 주택금융체계와 차입: 미국 ····················································· 355
[그림 9- 4] 유니버설 금융체제와 차입비율: 영국 시장 ············································ 358
[그림 9- 5] 모기지 보증의 순환적 완화 및 강화(미국 vs. 스페인) ·························· 363
그 림 목 차

31. [그림 9- 6] ARM vs. FRM의 시장점유율과 모기지 수익률 곡선 ···························· 366
[그림 9- 7] ARM 체제: 인덱스 펀드의 가격 책정 vs. 수정 가능성 및
상한선의 적용 ························································································· 370
[그림 9- 8] 특정 유럽 국가의 주택정책 구성의 차이 ··············································· 376
[그림 9- 9] 미국과 특정 유럽 국가의 경상수지와 주택대출 ···································· 380
[그림 9-10] 각국의 모기지 금융체제의 주요 리스크 영역의 이동
(1990년 vs. 2007년) ·············································································· 383
[그림 9-11] 한국의 자본시장 상황 ············································································ 386

33. 서 론
제Ⅰ부

35. 제1장 연구의 논점 및 요약 3
제 1장
연구의 논점 및 요약
조 만 (KDI 국제정책대학원)
차 문 중 (한국개발연구원)
제1절 서 론
경제개발이 본격화된 1960년대 이후 우리나라는 투기억제 및 경기부양의
목적으로 매우 빈번하게, 그리고 매우 다양한 정책수단을 통하여 부동산시
장에 개입해 왔다. 주택의 절대 수가 부족했던 1980~90년대에는 분양가 상
한제를 비롯한 신규주택 공급 관련 규제, 토지사용에 관한 규제, 부동산세제
등이 시장안정화의 주요 수단이었다. 1990년대 말 외환위기 이후에는 부동산
금융시장이 활성화됨에 따라 주택대출에 있어서 LTV⋅DTI의 상한 설정 등
금융부문의 규제가 추가되었다. 이와 같이 다양한 정책수단들이 과연 장⋅단
기적으로 부동산시장의 안정화에 어느 정도 기여하였는지, 더 나아가 거시
경제의 안정화와 ‘시스템리스크’의 관리에는 어느 정도의 효과가 있었는지,
그리고 중⋅저소득층의 주거복지 측면에서는 어떤 효과가 있었는지 등에 대
한 문제는 향후 심도 있는 연구를 통하여 규명되어야 할 사항이다.
우리나라와는 달리 미국⋅유럽 국가들은 부동산 버블의 관리에 있어서
‘선의의 방관(benign neglect)’과 사후대응의 정책기조를 유지해 왔다. 그러
나 2007~09년의 글로벌 금융위기(Global Financial Crisis: GFC)를 거치면
서 부동산시장발 시스템리스크의 파급효과와 이에 따르는 사회적 비용을 경

36. 4 글로벌 금융위기 이후 주택정책의 새로운 패러다임 모색
험하게 되었고, 이에 따라 부동산시장 버블의 측정 및 사전 관리방안이 학
계와 정책서클을 중심으로 활발하게 논의되고 있다. 1990년대 중⋅후반에
시작된 미국⋅유럽의 주택가격 상승은 주거용 모기지 시장으로의 유동성 집
중과 대출 증가로 더욱 가속화되었고, 2000년대 중반 이후 서브프라임 모기
지 및 유동화 상품의 부실화와 주택가격의 장기 침체로 경착륙하였으며, 이
는 금융기관의 자산건전성 악화, 미국⋅유럽 국가들의 실물경제 침체, 국제
교역의 하락, 유로존 국가들의 재정위기, 그리고 다시 세계경제의 동반침체
위험으로 이어지고 있다. GFC를 계기로 우리나라의 부동산시장과 거시경제
와의 연계성, 그리고 부동산시장 안정화를 위한 다양한 정책수단들을 재조
명하고, 인구⋅사회 구조 변화 등 부동산시장의 환경 변화에 대응하기 위한
정책과제를 모색하는 것은 시의적절한 연구과제라고 하겠다.
본 보고서에는 GFC가 우리나라 부동산시장에 주는 시사점을 정리하고,
이를 기초로 하여 주택정책의 새로운 패러다임을 알아보기 위한 목적으로
한국개발연구원(이하 KDI)이 지난 1년간 국내외 전문가들로 연구팀을 구성
하여 진행한 장기 프로젝트의 결과물을 수록하였다. 본 장을 제외한 총 15편
의 논문이 5개 부로 나뉘어 편집되었다: 우리나라 주택시장과 거시경제의
연계성에 대한 실증분석 및 정책시사점(제Ⅱ부), 주택금융시스템의 안정적
인 발전을 위한 정책방안(제Ⅲ부), 부동산개발금융시장의 개선방안(제Ⅳ부),
임대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책과제(제Ⅴ부), 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책
방안(제Ⅵ부). 서론에 해당하는 본 장에서는 연구의 전체적인 주제, 관련 시
장 추세, 그리고 각 부의 주요 논점 및 내용을 요약하였다.
주택가격을 중심으로 논의하면, 부동산시장발 시스템리스크는 주택가격
이 장기 균형수준으로부터 현격하게, 그리고 오랜 기간 동안 이반하여 거대
한 상승기와 하락기를 거치고, 이의 여파로 민간소비, 건설투자, 금융시장의
주요 채널을 통하여 거시경제(구체적으로 총수요 또는 GDP) 전반의 위축으
로 이어지며,1 이는 다시 가계소득의 하락 및 실업률 증가를 유발하여 주택
시장에 이차 효과를 야기하는 사례로 정의할 수 있다(그림 1-1 참조). 주택
1 주택시장⋅거시경제 연계성에 대한 최근 문헌의 서베이는 Muellbauer(2011) 참조.

37. 제1장 연구의 논점 및 요약 5
[그림 1-1] 주택-거시경제의 연계성 채널
가격의 장기 균형수준은 일정 시점 및 지역 주택시장의 수요⋅공급 요인에
의하여 결정되고, 이들 시장 펀더멘털 요인에 의한 예측치와 실제 가격 수
준 간의 차이를 통상 자산가격의 버블로 정의한다. 그러나 실증적으로 가격
버블을 측정하고, 이에 기초하여 시스템리스크를 동반하는 주택가격의 변동
성을 사전에 감지하는 것은 용이하지 않은 실증분석 과제이다. 이에 대한
일반적인 검증방식은 주택가격의 계량분석모형을 추정하여 이의 잔차항을
이용하여 가격버블의 유무를 검증하지만, 이는 모형 자체와 버블의 존재에
대한 동시 검증의 성격을 띠게 된다. 또한 주택가격은 주택시장 내부의 내
생변수들(주택건설, 주택대출, 소비자의 자가⋅임대 선택 등)뿐만 아니라
GDP 등의 거시경제변수와도 내생적인 상호관계를 가지게 된다. 현재까지
이들 모두를 적절히 고려하여 정책시사점을 도출할 수 있는 모형의 개발은
매우 힘든 실증분석 과제라고 하겠다. 본 연구에서는 주택시장과 거시경제
의 내생적 관계를 반영한 일반균형모형과 함께 주택시장의 미시적 특성을
더욱 명시적으로 반영한 부분균형모형을 보완적으로 사용하여 우리나라의
주택시장⋅거시경제 연계성에 대한 실증분석을 실시하였고, 이를 기초로 정

38. 6 글로벌 금융위기 이후 주택정책의 새로운 패러다임 모색
책시사점을 도출하였다.
1990년대의 외환위기 이후 우리나라의 주택부문은 금융자율화로 인한 부
동산금융시장의 급속한 확대, 노령화⋅핵가족화의 진전으로 인한 인구⋅사
회 구조 변화, FTA 등으로 인한 시장개방의 진전 등 구조변화 과정을 거치
고 있다. 연구진은 지난 15년간 두 차례의 금융위기를 거치면서 우리나라의
주택시장⋅거시경제 연계성이 어떠한 국면변환(regime shift)을 경험하였는
지, 그리고 지난 40여 년간 우리나라 주택정책의 기본 방향이었던 ‘주택가
격 안정’이 현재의 구조 변화를 고려할 때 과연 앞으로도 추구해야 할 정책
목표인지, 이를 대체한다면 새로운 정책 패러다임은 무엇인지에 대한 문제
를 총괄적인 주제로 설정하였다. 본 보고서에 포함된 다양한 이론적⋅실증
적 분석은 향후 우리나라 주택정책의 기조는 가격안정 자체보다는 주택시장
변동성의 증폭요인에 대한 적절한 모니터링 및 규제를 통한 주택시장 및 거
시경제 안정화, 그리고 다양해지는 중⋅저소득층 소비자의 주택수요를 충족
시키기 위한 주거안정 및 주거복지 제고가 되어야 할 것을 시사한다. 또한
시장안정화정책의 추구에 있어서도 부동산 금융상품 및 대출기관의 건전성
제고와 함께 한계차입자에 대한 금융포용의 확대도 무게를 두어야 할 정책
과제로 논의하였다.
본 보고서의 제Ⅱ부에서는 우리나라의 주택시장이 민간소비 및 건설투자
채널을 통하여 거시경제에 미치는 연결고리에 대한 실증분석을 수행하고 이
를 기초로 정책시사점을 논의하였다(2장~4장). 주택가격과 민간소비의 상관
관계에 관해서는 Catte et al.(2004)이 OECD 국가들의 주택가격 변화에 대
한 장기(단기) 민간소비 탄력성을 0.06~0.15(0.04~0.26)로 추정하였고, 우리
나라의 경우에도 김영일(2010)이 이와 유사한 수준의 소비탄력성을 보고하였
다. 또한 일반적으로 주택자산의 소비효과가 금융자산보다 큰 것으로 나타나
고(Case et al.[2005, 2011]), 금융자율화로 인하여 주택담보대출이 더욱 용
이해진 시기 및 지역에서 소비탄력성이 증가하는 것으로 보고된다(Slakalec
[2006]; Aaron and Muellbauer[2006]; Lustig and Van Nieuwerburgh
[2008]). 주택시장과 거시경제의 두 번째 연계성 채널인 건설투자에 대해서
Leamer(2007)는 2차 대전 이후 미국에서 관찰된 10번의 경기침체 중 8번에