The GBR Consulting Barometer is a regular suvey to obtain insights into the Greek hotel industry's opinions current issues as well as expectations about Occupancy (OCC) and Average Room Rate (ARR).
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GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1
1. Tourism Barometer
2013 Q1
Expectations of the
Greek Hospitality Sector
January 2013
2. Survey characteristics
• The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 January 2013, among
hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;
• The survey was anonymous and 198 hotels completed
the online questionnaire, of which 163 fully. The
distribution of those was as follows:
– 49% are city hotels and 51% resort hotels;
– 22% are 5*, 32% 4*, 20% 3*, 25% 2* and 1% 1* hotels.
• The survey includes forecasts for 2013 Q1 as well as for
2013 as a whole.
• Survey results are published in the press and on
www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
3. Main Conclusions
• The Greek hotel sector is optimistic for 2013 overall, with increasing
occupancy levels and stabilising room rates.
• However, this optimism does not include the first quarter of 2013, for which
stabilising occupancies were forecasted with declining room rates, but apparently
hoteliers are expecting improvements beyond Q1.
• City hoteliers are expecting improvements in occupancy levels, but decreases in
room rates in 2013. Overall RevPAR in 2013 is expected to be on par with 2012.
• Also the Athenian hoteliers are predicting that the fall in occupancy and room
rates of recent years will more or less bottom out in 2013. They expect stabilising
occupancy levels and slightly lower room rates.
• The resort hoteliers expect a very good year. Occupancy performance is
expected to strongly improve, while room rates are also forecasted to increase,
albeit at a lower level than occupancy.
• The 5 and 4 star hotel sectors see positive developments with increases in
occupancy and room rates levels. The 3 and 2 star segments are more cautious
as they forecast stabilising to slightly increasing occupancy rates, but decreases in
room rates.
4. How to read the Quarter meters
• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with
respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for:
– their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page
– the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page
37% expects
The needle shows the stabilisation –
overall expectation / between -2% and +2%
feeling1
18% expects an
19% expects a increase -
decrease – 37% between 2% and 5%
19%
between 2% and 5%
18%
19%
7%
19% expects a 7% expects an
decrease – increase –
more than 5% more than 5%
1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the
increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
5. Survey results
Expectations for 2013 Q1
• All hotels
• City hotels
– Athens hotels
– Thessaloniki hotels
– Other city hotels
• Resort hotels
– Crete hotels
• Hotels per category
– 5 star hotels
– 4 star hotels
– 3 star hotels
– 2 star hotels
7. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
All hotels
34% 48%
9% 24% 13%
The outlook of the
Greek hoteliers for the 23% 11%
19% 14%
first quarter of the new 5%
year of 2013 shows
6CC ARR
stabilising occupancy
levels compared to
same quarter last year
and falling room rates. «MARKET IN GENERAL»
Contrary to what is
customary, Hoteliers 29% 24% 40%
are of the opinion that 8% 12%
17%
the market in general
20%
will outperform their 19% 21% 11%
own hotels, as they
expect slightly bigger 6CC ARR
increases in occupancy
and smaller drops in
% of respondents that expected
room rates compared
to their own hotels. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 1
2 – 5% >5%
8. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
City hotels
39%
12% 14% 48%
The city hoteliers
expect further drops in 17%
both occupancy and 25% 30%
5%
8% 3%
room rates this quarter
compared to same 6CC ARR
quarter last year. The
expected drop in
occupancy will be less
though than the «MARKET IN GENERAL»
expected drop in room
rates.
32% 17%
38%
13%
Forecasts for their own 18%
hotels are at a similar 26% 26%
11%
level as the forecasts 10% 8%
for the market in
6CC ARR
general. For both, most
hoteliers expect a
stabilising trend this
% of respondents that expected
quarter for both
occupancy and rates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
9. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
Athens hotels
17% 48%
18% 50%
The Athenian hoteliers
remain pessimistic as 21%
25%
they expect significant 14% 7%
drops in both
6CC ARR
occupancy and ARR
for the first quarter of
2013 compared to Q1
2012. The market in «MARKET IN GENERAL»
general shows a
similar trend, where at
least a quarter of the 18% 39% 19% 38%
hoteliers expect drops
of 5% or more for both 14% 27% 15%
occupancy and room 25% 4%
rates.
6CC ARR
A large group expects
a stabilising trend for
% of respondents that expected
both their own hotel as
well as for the market Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
overall. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
10. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
Thessaloniki
19%
hotels 13% 19%
7%
43%
7%
Hoteliers in 25% 25% 29%
14%
Thessaloniki expect
stabilising occupancy
6CC ARR
levels and falling room
rates this first quarter.
For the market overall «MARKET IN GENERAL»
hoteliers are much
more negative in their
forecast as they predict 31% 50%
6% 7%
sharply falling 25%
occupancy and room 31% 29% 7%
rates. About 38% 6% 7%
predicts drops of 2% or
6CC ARR
more in terms of
occupancy and 36% a
similar level of drops in
% of respondents that expected
room rates.
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
11. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
Other city hotels
41% 13%
6% 48%
The city hoteliers 35%
19%
outside Athens and 28%
Thessaloniki expect 6% 3%
significant drops in
6CC ARR
both occupancy and
room rates, while for
the market in general
they are more «MARKET IN GENERAL»
optimistic with
stabilising occupancy
levels compared to the 12%
27% 31%
18% 19%
same quarter last year, 9%
and smaller drops in
24% 18% 25% 16%
room rates when
compared to their own
hotels, where 35% 6CC ARR
expects drops in
Average Room Rates
% of respondents that expected
of 5% and more.
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
12. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
Resort hotels
36%
26% 49%
Contrary to the city 20%
24% 11%
hotels, managers of 4%
resort hotels are 10% 11% 9%
optimistic for the first
6CC ARR
quarter of 2013.
They forecast sharp
increases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL»
levels and stabilising
levels of room rates.
31% 43%
24%
For the market overall 24%
33%
they are even a bit 2%
6%
more optimistic. 14%
12%
10%
6CC ARR
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%1 >5%
13. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
Resort hotels
36%
in Crete 83%
26% 24%
The hoteliers in Crete 8%
are by far the most 8%
optimistic of the
6CC ARR
barometer survey of
this quarter.
For their own hotel «MARKET IN GENERAL»
units nobody predicted
a drop, nor in
occupancy nor in room 46%
50% 25%
rates. A vast majority
of 83% expects that 15% 31%
17%
their ARR will be at 8% 8%
around the same level
6CC ARR
as last year’s Q1, but
with soaring occupancy
levels.
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
14. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
5 star
hotels 33% 17% 50%
10% 30% 14% 18%
The 5 star hoteliers
have given a very 10% 11% 7%
similar forecast for both
6CC ARR
their own hotels and for
the market as a whole.
They expect sharp «MARKET IN GENERAL»
increases in occupancy
this first quarter with
similar room rates as 27% 17% 41%
last year’s first quarter. 10% 11% 22%
30%
30% expects increases 17% 15% 11%
in occupancy levels of
5% and more for both 6CC ARR
their own units as well
as for the market in
% of respondents that expected
general.
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
15. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
4 star
hotels 32% 56%
30%
5% 14%
Like the 5 star 11%
16%
16% 11% 8%
hoteliers, the 4 star
hoteliers are also
6CC ARR
optimistic with small
increases in occupancy
and stabilising room
rate levels. «MARKET IN GENERAL»
For the market as a
whole they are more 28% 36% 42%
optimistic with 11%
19%
considerable 3%
18% 14%
improvements in 15% 14%
occupancy this quarter
compared to last year 6CC ARR
and stabilising room
rates.
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
16. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
3 star
13% 27%
hotels 11% 46%
30%
Contrary to the 5 and 4 27% 29%
11%
star hotels the 3 star 3% 4%
hotels are not that
6CC ARR
optimistic for the start
of 2013.
They expect emptier «MARKET IN GENERAL»
hotels this quarter
1
compared to last years’
Q1 as well as sharp 13% 27% 18% 43%
drops in their Average 20%
Room Rates. 27%
25% 11%
13%
4%
The forecasts of the
market in general are 6CC ARR
at a similar level of the
forecasts of their own
% of respondents that expected
hotel units.
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
17. Expectations for 2013 Q1
«MY HOTEL»
2 star
41% 12%
hotels 7%
40%
44%
21%
The 2 star hoteliers 24%
predict mild drops in 7%
4%
occupancy levels for
6CC ARR
their own hotels and
significant drops in
their room rates this
quarter. An astonishing «MARKET IN GENERAL»
44% expects drops of
5% and more.
31% 31%
20% 10%
For the market overall 9% 14%
they are much more 31%
20%
positive with 14%
20%
improvements in
occupancy levels. 6CC ARR
However, they also
predict sharply falling
% of respondents that expected
room rates albeit not
as much as for their Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
own hotels. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
19. Survey results
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
• All hotels
• City hotels
– Athens hotels
– Thessaloniki hotels
– Other city hotels
• Resort hotels
– Crete hotels
• Hotels per category
– 5 star hotels
– 4 star hotels
– 3 star hotels
– 2 star hotels
20. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
All hotels
24% 34% 43%
21%
The Greek hotel sector 12%
11%
is optimistic for 2013. 21%
12% 12%
10%
Hoteliers are
6CC ARR
forecasting increasing
occupancy levels and
stabilising room rates.
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
Forecasts for their own
1
hotel units and for the
market as a whole are 32% 41%
23%
at a similar level. 19%
13%
12%
24%
This optimism is not 13% 14%
10%
based though on the
first quarter of 2013. 6CC ARR
Apparently hoteliers
expect improvements
% of respondents that expected
beyond Q1.
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
21. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
City hotels
26% 44%
30%
The city hoteliers are 17% 14% 17%
more optimistic for the
16% 16%
whole year than for the 12% 9%
first quarter of this
6CC ARR
year.
They expect mild
increases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL»
levels and drops up to
5% overall in room
rates. 27% 43%
31%
17%
17% 14%
The outlook for the
17%
market in general is 12% 13% 9%
similar to the forecasts
of their own hotels. 6CC ARR
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%
1 >5%
22. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
Athens hotels
37%
47%
For 2013 as a whole 27%
23% 10%
23%
the Athenian hoteliers
forecasts to perform at 3%
10% 10% 10%
a similar level as 2012,
6CC ARR
which would mean that
the continuous fall in
recent years of
occupancy and room «MARKET IN GENERAL»
rate levels has
bottomed out. They
expect similar 27% 40%
occupancy levels as 27%
30%
23%
13%
last year and mild
decreases in room 7%
10% 13% 10%
rates.
6CC ARR
Their own hotels are
expected to perform on
% of respondents that expected
par with the market as
a whole. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
23. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
Thessaloniki
13%
hotels 38% 44%
13%
6% 19%
Hoteliers in 19% 19% 19% 13%
Thessaloniki expect
another increase this
6CC ARR
year in occupancy
levels, while room
rates of their own
hotels are expected to «MARKET IN GENERAL»
stabilise. 1
For the market overall 44%
19% 50%
the room rates are 19%
13% 19%
expected to drop
slightly. 13%
13% 6% 6%
6CC ARR
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%1 >5%
1
24. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
Other city hotels
23% 42%
29%
13% 10%
Also the other city 23%
hotels are following the 19% 19%
16%
overall trend of the city 6%
hotels: improvements
6CC ARR
in occupancy levels
and decreases in room
rates. Thus RevPAR is
expected to be at the «MARKET IN GENERAL»
same level as 2012.
Forecasts for their own 32% 45%
23%
10%
hotel are very similar to 10%
13%
the forecasts for the 23%
19%
market overall. 16% 10%
6CC ARR
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
25. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
Resort hotels
38%
42%
22% 25%
The resort hoteliers
expect a good year. 27% 10%
5% 16%
8% 8%
Occupancy
6CC ARR
performance is
expected to improve
strongly for their own
hotel units. They also «MARKET IN GENERAL»
expect improvements
in room rates.
39% 24%
32%
For the market in 19%
general hoteliers are 9%
6% 35% 18%
very positive with 8% 9%
significantly higher
occupancy and room 6CC ARR
rates levels.
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
26. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
Resort hotels
50%
in Crete 53% 26%
30%
Following an expected 20%
16%
strong Q1 of 2013 they 5%
also predict a very
6CC ARR
good year overall
where 80% of
respondents expect
increases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL»
of 2% or more and
42% a similar increase
32%
in room rates. 40%
42%
40%
Similar levels of 15% 21%
optimism can be seen 5% 5%
in the barometres of
6CC ARR
the market in general.
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
27. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
5 star
hotels 18%
32%
38%
26%
The 5 star hoteliers 18%
29% 15%
expect a positive year 15%
3% 6%
with strong
improvements in 6CC ARR
occupancy compared
to last year and
increases in room «MARKET IN GENERAL»
rates.
1
They are not only 36% 39%
12%
optimistic for their own 21%
hotel units, but also for 15% 30%
21%
the 5 star segment as 6% 12%
6%
a whole.
6CC ARR
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
28. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
4 star
42%
hotels 45% 24%
24%
26%
The 4 star hoteliers are 18%
8%
very optimistic for 6%
2% 4%
2013. A vast majority
6CC ARR
expects increases of
2% or more for their
own hotels and around
42% similar increases «MARKET IN GENERAL»
in room rates.
1
Also for the 4 star 33% 43% 22%
segment overall the 24%
hoteliers are very 31%
4% 20%
8%
positive for 2013 with 10%
4%
increases in both
occupancy and room 6CC ARR
rate levels.
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%
1 >5%
29. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
3 star
35%
hotels 13%
52%
10% 29%
10%
Contrary to the very 16%
16% 10%
positive outlook for 10%
2013 of the 5 and 4
6CC ARR
star hoteliers, the
hoteliers in the 3 star
segment are more
cautious. They expect «MARKET IN GENERAL»
stabilising occupancy
levels for both their
own hotels as well as 32% 45%
29% 13%
for the market overall. 6%
13%
19% 19%
In terms of room rates 13% 10%
they are predicting
drops in comparison 6CC ARR
with 2012, both for
their own hotels and for
% of respondents that expected
the market in general.
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
30. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
«MY HOTEL»
2 star
hotels 21% 16% 37%
13% 29%
21%
The 2 star segment 18% 18%
21%
shows a mixed picture. 5%
They expect pressure
6CC ARR
on their room rates this
year, while their
occupancy is expected
to improve. «MARKET IN GENERAL»
The market in general
26% 37%
shows a similar picture
as the barometers of 18% 18%
18% 26%
their own hotels.
18% 16%
11% 11%
6CC ARR
% of respondents that expected
Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase
>5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%
1 >5%