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Tourism Barometer
      2013 Q1
  Expectations of the
Greek Hospitality Sector




      January 2013
Survey characteristics
• The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 January 2013, among
  hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;

• The survey was anonymous and 198 hotels completed
  the online questionnaire, of which 163 fully. The
  distribution of those was as follows:
   – 49% are city hotels and 51% resort hotels;
   – 22% are 5*, 32% 4*, 20% 3*, 25% 2* and 1% 1* hotels.


• The survey includes forecasts for 2013 Q1 as well as for
  2013 as a whole.

• Survey results are published in the press and on
  www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
Main Conclusions
•   The Greek hotel sector is optimistic for 2013 overall, with increasing
    occupancy levels and stabilising room rates.
•   However, this optimism does not include the first quarter of 2013, for which
    stabilising occupancies were forecasted with declining room rates, but apparently
    hoteliers are expecting improvements beyond Q1.
•   City hoteliers are expecting improvements in occupancy levels, but decreases in
    room rates in 2013. Overall RevPAR in 2013 is expected to be on par with 2012.
•   Also the Athenian hoteliers are predicting that the fall in occupancy and room
    rates of recent years will more or less bottom out in 2013. They expect stabilising
    occupancy levels and slightly lower room rates.
•   The resort hoteliers expect a very good year. Occupancy performance is
    expected to strongly improve, while room rates are also forecasted to increase,
    albeit at a lower level than occupancy.
•   The 5 and 4 star hotel sectors see positive developments with increases in
    occupancy and room rates levels. The 3 and 2 star segments are more cautious
    as they forecast stabilising to slightly increasing occupancy rates, but decreases in
    room rates.
How to read the Quarter meters
• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with
  respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for:
         – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page
         – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page
                                                                                           37% expects
                             The needle shows the                                          stabilisation –
                              overall expectation /                                    between -2% and +2%
                                    feeling1
                                                                                                 18% expects an
           19% expects a                                                                            increase -
            decrease –                                           37%                           between 2% and 5%
                                                 19%
        between 2% and 5%
                                                                        18%
                                           19%
                                                                           7%
          19% expects a                                                                                7% expects an
           decrease –                                                                                   increase –
          more than 5%                                                                                 more than 5%


1   The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the
    increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
Survey results
Expectations for 2013 Q1

• All hotels
• City hotels
   – Athens hotels
   – Thessaloniki hotels
   – Other city hotels
• Resort hotels
   – Crete hotels
• Hotels per category
   – 5 star hotels
   – 4 star hotels
   – 3 star hotels
   – 2 star hotels
Expectations for 2013 Q1
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                 «MY HOTEL»


      All hotels
                                  34%                                               48%
                             9%            24%                     13%
The outlook of the
Greek hoteliers for the                                        23%                           11%
                           19%                  14%
first quarter of the new                                                                      5%
year of 2013 shows
                                   6CC                                      ARR
stabilising occupancy
levels compared to
same quarter last year
and falling room rates.                  «MARKET IN GENERAL»

Contrary to what is
customary, Hoteliers              29%     24%                                 40%
are of the opinion that      8%                                    12%
                                                                                            17%
the market in general
                                                20%
will outperform their      19%                                 21%                           11%
own hotels, as they
expect slightly bigger             6CC                                      ARR
increases in occupancy
and smaller drops in
                                          % of respondents that expected
room rates compared
to their own hotels.         Decrease     Decrease     Stability         Increase         Increase
                             >5%          2 – 5%       -2% - +2%              1
                                                                         2 – 5%           >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                  «MY HOTEL»

     City hotels
                                        39%
                            12%                                          14%          48%
The city hoteliers
expect further drops in                         17%
both occupancy and        25%                                      30%
                                                                                              5%
                                                 8%                                            3%
room rates this quarter
compared to same                      6CC                                      ARR
quarter last year. The
expected drop in
occupancy will be less
though than the                               «MARKET IN GENERAL»
expected drop in room
rates.
                                        32%                              17%
                                                                                     38%
                                13%
Forecasts for their own                        18%
hotels are at a similar   26%                                      26%
                                                                                             11%
level as the forecasts                           10%                                          8%
for the market in
                                      6CC                                      ARR
general. For both, most
hoteliers expect a
stabilising trend this
                                              % of respondents that expected
quarter for both
occupancy and rates.       Decrease           Decrease     Stability     Increase          Increase
                           >5%     1          2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%            >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                    «MY HOTEL»


   Athens hotels
                                 17%         48%
                                                                        18%           50%
The Athenian hoteliers
remain pessimistic as      21%
                                                                    25%
they expect significant                            14%                                      7%
drops in both
                                       6CC                                      ARR
occupancy and ARR
for the first quarter of
2013 compared to Q1
2012. The market in                           «MARKET IN GENERAL»
general shows a
similar trend, where at
least a quarter of the           18%         39%                          19%         38%
hoteliers expect drops
of 5% or more for both                             14%              27%                     15%
occupancy and room         25%                      4%
rates.
                                       6CC                                      ARR
A large group expects
a stabilising trend for
                                               % of respondents that expected
both their own hotel as
well as for the market       Decrease          Decrease     Stability      Increase     Increase
overall.                     >5%               2 – 5%       -2% - +2%      2 – 5%       >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                      «MY HOTEL»


    Thessaloniki
                                       19%
       hotels                 13%              19%
                                                                            7%
                                                                                   43%
                                                                                               7%

Hoteliers in                25%                      25%              29%
                                                                                                 14%
Thessaloniki expect
stabilising occupancy
                                       6CC                                       ARR
levels and falling room
rates this first quarter.

For the market overall                         «MARKET IN GENERAL»
hoteliers are much
more negative in their
forecast as they predict                 31%                                           50%
                                  6%                                        7%
sharply falling                                   25%
occupancy and room          31%                                      29%                       7%
rates. About 38%                                     6%                                         7%
predicts drops of 2% or
                                       6CC                                       ARR
more in terms of
occupancy and 36% a
similar level of drops in
                                                % of respondents that expected
room rates.
                              Decrease          Decrease     Stability      Increase         Increase
                              >5%               2 – 5%       -2% - +2%      2 – 5%           >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                    «MY HOTEL»


 Other city hotels
                                       41%                                   13%
                                6%                                                     48%
The city hoteliers                                                  35%
                                                 19%
outside Athens and        28%
Thessaloniki expect                                 6%                                           3%
significant drops in
                                     6CC                                       ARR
both occupancy and
room rates, while for
the market in general
they are more                                «MARKET IN GENERAL»
optimistic with
stabilising occupancy
levels compared to the      12%
                                     27%                                             31%
                                              18%                      19%
same quarter last year,                                                                     9%
and smaller drops in
                          24%                    18%               25%                        16%
room rates when
compared to their own
hotels, where 35%                    6CC                                       ARR
expects drops in
Average Room Rates
                                              % of respondents that expected
of 5% and more.
                            Decrease          Decrease     Stability      Increase         Increase
                            >5%               2 – 5%       -2% - +2%      2 – 5%           >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                          «MY HOTEL»


    Resort hotels
                                              36%
                             26%                                               49%
Contrary to the city                                                                        20%
                                                          24%            11%
hotels, managers of          4%
resort hotels are           10%                                          11%                     9%
optimistic for the first
                                       6CC                                           ARR
quarter of 2013.

They forecast sharp
increases in occupancy                          «MARKET IN GENERAL»
levels and stabilising
levels of room rates.
                                        31%                                    43%
                                                                                           24%
For the market overall           24%
                                                    33%
they are even a bit         2%
                                                                         6%
more optimistic.                                                                             14%
                                                                        12%
                           10%
                                       6CC                                           ARR


                                                    % of respondents that expected
                                 Decrease           Decrease     Stability     Increase    Increase
                                 >5%                2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%1     >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                   «MY HOTEL»


   Resort hotels
                                         36%
     in Crete                                                              83%

                         26%                      24%
The hoteliers in Crete                                                                      8%
are by far the most                                                                          8%
optimistic of the
                                    6CC                                         ARR
barometer survey of
this quarter.

For their own hotel                            «MARKET IN GENERAL»
units nobody predicted
a drop, nor in
occupancy nor in room              46%
                                                                         50%          25%
rates. A vast majority
of 83% expects that      15%                     31%
                                                                                            17%
their ARR will be at     8%                                         8%
around the same level
                                    6CC                                         ARR
as last year’s Q1, but
with soaring occupancy
levels.
                                               % of respondents that expected
                              Decrease         Decrease     Stability     Increase      Increase
                              >5%              2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%        >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                       «MY HOTEL»


        5 star
        hotels                      33%         17%                                      50%

                             10%                      30%               14%                      18%
The 5 star hoteliers
have given a very            10%                                       11%                           7%
similar forecast for both
                                          6CC                                      ARR
their own hotels and for
the market as a whole.

They expect sharp                                «MARKET IN GENERAL»
increases in occupancy
this first quarter with
similar room rates as                 27%       17%                             41%
last year’s first quarter.    10%                                      11%                     22%
                                                      30%
30% expects increases        17%                                      15%                        11%
in occupancy levels of
5% and more for both                      6CC                                      ARR
their own units as well
as for the market in
                                                  % of respondents that expected
general.
                               Decrease           Decrease     Stability      Increase         Increase
                               >5%     1          2 – 5%       -2% - +2%      2 – 5%           >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                    «MY HOTEL»


       4 star
       hotels                   32%                                              56%
                                             30%
                           5%                                      14%
Like the 5 star                                                                          11%
                                                  16%
                         16%                                       11%                       8%
hoteliers, the 4 star
hoteliers are also
                                      6CC                                      ARR
optimistic with small
increases in occupancy
and stabilising room
rate levels.                                «MARKET IN GENERAL»

For the market as a
whole they are more             28%         36%                            42%
optimistic with                                                    11%
                                                                                       19%
considerable              3%
                                                   18%                                   14%
improvements in          15%                                      14%
occupancy this quarter
compared to last year                 6CC                                      ARR
and stabilising room
rates.
                                              % of respondents that expected
                               Decrease       Decrease     Stability     Increase      Increase
                               >5%            2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%        >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                    «MY HOTEL»


        3 star
                                  13%    27%
        hotels                                                             11%         46%

                                                  30%
Contrary to the 5 and 4     27%                                      29%
                                                                                                11%
star hotels the 3 star                             3%                                             4%
hotels are not that
                                    6CC                                          ARR
optimistic for the start
of 2013.

They expect emptier                             «MARKET IN GENERAL»
hotels this quarter
                                                                                  1
compared to last years’
Q1 as well as sharp           13%         27%                              18%         43%
drops in their Average                           20%
Room Rates.                 27%
                                                                     25%                       11%
                                                   13%
                                                                                                4%
The forecasts of the
market in general are                   6CC                                      ARR
at a similar level of the
forecasts of their own
                                                % of respondents that expected
hotel units.
                             Decrease           Decrease     Stability      Increase         Increase
                             >5%                2 – 5%       -2% - +2%      2 – 5%           >5%
Expectations for 2013 Q1
                                                    «MY HOTEL»


        2 star
                                      41%                                       12%
        hotels                  7%
                                                                                         40%
                                                                      44%
                                               21%
The 2 star hoteliers      24%
predict mild drops in                              7%
                                                                                               4%
occupancy levels for
                                     6CC                                       ARR
their own hotels and
significant drops in
their room rates this
quarter. An astonishing                     «MARKET IN GENERAL»
44% expects drops of
5% and more.
                                     31%                                           31%
                                             20%                        10%
For the market overall      9%                                                           14%
they are much more                                                31%
                                                   20%
positive with                                                                              14%
                          20%
improvements in
occupancy levels.                    6CC                                       ARR
However, they also
predict sharply falling
                                             % of respondents that expected
room rates albeit not
as much as for their        Decrease         Decrease     Stability         Increase     Increase
own hotels.                 >5%              2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%       >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
Survey results
Expectations for 2013 as a whole

• All hotels
• City hotels
   – Athens hotels
   – Thessaloniki hotels
   – Other city hotels
• Resort hotels
   – Crete hotels
• Hotels per category
   – 5 star hotels
   – 4 star hotels
   – 3 star hotels
   – 2 star hotels
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                       «MY HOTEL»


      All hotels
                                24%          34%                              43%
                                                                                           21%
The Greek hotel sector                                                  12%
                           11%
is optimistic for 2013.                               21%
                                                                       12%                    12%
                          10%
Hoteliers are
                                       6CC                                          ARR
forecasting increasing
occupancy levels and
stabilising room rates.
                                              «MARKET IN GENERAL»
Forecasts for their own
                                                                                     1
hotel units and for the
market as a whole are                        32%                                     41%
                                 23%
at a similar level.                                                                        19%
                                                                        13%
                            12%
                                                     24%
This optimism is not                                                   13%                   14%
                          10%
based though on the
first quarter of 2013.                 6CC                                          ARR
Apparently hoteliers
expect improvements
                                                   % of respondents that expected
beyond Q1.
                                Decrease           Decrease     Stability     Increase     Increase
                                >5%                2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%       >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                      «MY HOTEL»


     City hotels
                                    26%                                            44%
                                                30%
The city hoteliers are       17%                                         14%                17%
more optimistic for the
                                                      16%           16%
whole year than for the    12%                                                                9%
first quarter of this
                                       6CC                                        ARR
year.

They expect mild
increases in occupancy                         «MARKET IN GENERAL»
levels and drops up to
5% overall in room
rates.                               27%                                             43%
                                                31%
                                                                      17%
                             17%                                                            14%
The outlook for the
                                                                     17%
market in general is       12%                     13%                                       9%
similar to the forecasts
of their own hotels.                   6CC                                        ARR


                                                % of respondents that expected
                                 Decrease       Decrease     Stability         Increase    Increase
                                 >5%            2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%
                                                                                    1      >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                   «MY HOTEL»


   Athens hotels
                                      37%
                                                                                  47%
For 2013 as a whole                           27%
                                                                   23%                     10%
                           23%
the Athenian hoteliers
forecasts to perform at    3%
                                                   10%            10%                        10%

a similar level as 2012,
                                       6CC                                     ARR
which would mean that
the continuous fall in
recent years of
occupancy and room                           «MARKET IN GENERAL»
rate levels has
bottomed out. They
expect similar                        27%                                          40%
occupancy levels as             27%
                                             30%
                                                                      23%
                                                                                          13%
last year and mild
decreases in room          7%
                                                   10%            13%                        10%
rates.
                                       6CC                                     ARR
Their own hotels are
expected to perform on
                                             % of respondents that expected
par with the market as
a whole.                        Decrease     Decrease     Stability         Increase     Increase
                                >5%     1    2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%       >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                    «MY HOTEL»


    Thessaloniki
                                 13%
       hotels                                38%                              44%
                               13%
                                                                       6%              19%

Hoteliers in             19%                       19%            19%                     13%
Thessaloniki expect
another increase this
                                       6CC                                     ARR
year in occupancy
levels, while room
rates of their own
hotels are expected to                       «MARKET IN GENERAL»
stabilise.                                                                       1

For the market overall                                                           44%
                                 19%         50%
the room rates are                                                  19%
                           13%                                                           19%
expected to drop
slightly.                                                          13%
                         13%                       6%                                    6%

                                       6CC                                     ARR


                                              % of respondents that expected
                               Decrease       Decrease     Stability        Increase   Increase
                               >5%            2 – 5%       -2% - +2%        2 – 5%1    >5%
                                        1
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                      «MY HOTEL»


 Other city hotels
                                     23%                                           42%
                                               29%
                              13%                                        10%
Also the other city                                                                        23%
hotels are following the                             19%            19%
                            16%
overall trend of the city                                                                    6%
hotels: improvements
                                        6CC                                       ARR
in occupancy levels
and decreases in room
rates. Thus RevPAR is
expected to be at the                          «MARKET IN GENERAL»
same level as 2012.

Forecasts for their own              32%                                            45%
                                               23%
                                                                         10%
hotel are very similar to     10%
                                                                                           13%
the forecasts for the                                                23%
                                                     19%
market overall.             16%                                                              10%

                                        6CC                                       ARR


                                                % of respondents that expected
                                  Decrease      Decrease     Stability         Increase   Increase
                                  >5%           2 – 5%       -2% - +2%         2 – 5%     >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                «MY HOTEL»


   Resort hotels
                                      38%
                                                                       42%
                          22%                                                            25%
The resort hoteliers
expect a good year.                            27%               10%
                          5%                                                               16%
                         8%                                      8%
Occupancy
                                 6CC                                         ARR
performance is
expected to improve
strongly for their own
hotel units. They also                      «MARKET IN GENERAL»
expect improvements
in room rates.
                                                                       39%         24%
                                32%
For the market in         19%
general hoteliers are                                             9%
                          6%                  35%                                          18%
very positive with       8%                                      9%
significantly higher
occupancy and room               6CC                                         ARR
rates levels.
                                            % of respondents that expected
                           Decrease         Decrease     Stability     Increase      Increase
                           >5%              2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%        >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                               «MY HOTEL»


   Resort hotels
                                     50%
     in Crete                                                       53%            26%

                                              30%
Following an expected    20%
                                                                                         16%
strong Q1 of 2013 they                                         5%
also predict a very
                                     6CC                                    ARR
good year overall
where 80% of
respondents expect
increases in occupancy                     «MARKET IN GENERAL»
of 2% or more and
42% a similar increase
                                                                                  32%
in room rates.                 40%
                                                                    42%
                                            40%
Similar levels of        15%                                                             21%
optimism can be seen     5%                                    5%
in the barometres of
                                     6CC                                    ARR
the market in general.

                                           % of respondents that expected
                           Decrease        Decrease     Stability     Increase      Increase
                           >5%             2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%        >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                      «MY HOTEL»

        5 star
        hotels                    18%
                                            32%
                                                                            38%
                                                                                         26%
The 5 star hoteliers        18%
                                                    29%               15%
expect a positive year                                                                     15%
                            3%                                       6%
with strong
improvements in                         6CC                                        ARR
occupancy compared
to last year and
increases in room                                 «MARKET IN GENERAL»
rates.
                                                                                    1

They are not only                       36%                                    39%
                                 12%
optimistic for their own                                                                 21%
hotel units, but also for   15%                     30%
                                                                      21%
the 5 star segment as                                                6%                    12%
                            6%
a whole.
                                        6CC                                        ARR


                                                  % of respondents that expected
                                 Decrease         Decrease     Stability    Increase     Increase
                                 >5%              2 – 5%       -2% - +2%    2 – 5%       >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                      «MY HOTEL»


        4 star
                                            42%
        hotels                                                             45%           24%
                             24%
                                                   26%
The 4 star hoteliers are                                                                         18%
                                                                     8%
very optimistic for         6%
                           2%                                        4%
2013. A vast majority
                                       6CC                                         ARR
expects increases of
2% or more for their
own hotels and around
42% similar increases                             «MARKET IN GENERAL»
in room rates.
                                                                                    1

Also for the 4 star                    33%                                 43%           22%
segment overall the          24%
hoteliers are very                                  31%
                                                                      4%                         20%
                            8%
positive for 2013 with                                               10%
                           4%
increases in both
occupancy and room                     6CC                                         ARR
rate levels.
                                                  % of respondents that expected
                                 Decrease         Decrease     Stability    Increase           Increase
                                 >5%              2 – 5%       -2% - +2%    2 – 5%
                                                                                 1             >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                     «MY HOTEL»


        3 star
                                     35%
        hotels                                                      13%
                                                                                 52%
                            10%                 29%
                                                                                         10%
Contrary to the very                                              16%
                           16%                                                            10%
positive outlook for                                 10%
2013 of the 5 and 4
                                       6CC                                      ARR
star hoteliers, the
hoteliers in the 3 star
segment are more
cautious. They expect                         «MARKET IN GENERAL»
stabilising occupancy
levels for both their
own hotels as well as               32%                                          45%
                                              29%                    13%
for the market overall.      6%
                                                                                        13%
                           19%                                    19%
In terms of room rates                              13%                                  10%
they are predicting
drops in comparison                    6CC                                      ARR
with 2012, both for
their own hotels and for
                                               % of respondents that expected
the market in general.
                                 Decrease      Decrease     Stability      Increase    Increase
                                 >5%           2 – 5%       -2% - +2%      2 – 5%      >5%
Expectations for 2013 as a whole
                                                      «MY HOTEL»


        2 star
        hotels                       21%                                16%      37%
                             13%               29%
                                                                                        21%
The 2 star segment         18%                        18%
                                                                  21%
shows a mixed picture.                                                                    5%
They expect pressure
                                       6CC                                      ARR
on their room rates this
year, while their
occupancy is expected
to improve.                                   «MARKET IN GENERAL»

The market in general
                                    26%                                          37%
shows a similar picture
as the barometers of                                                18%                 18%
                            18%                 26%
their own hotels.
                                                  18%             16%
                           11%                                                            11%

                                       6CC                                      ARR


                                               % of respondents that expected
                                 Decrease      Decrease     Stability     Increase     Increase
                                 >5%     1     2 – 5%       -2% - +2%     2 – 5%
                                                                               1       >5%
Tourism Barometer
      2013 Q1
     Expectations
Greek Hospitality Sector




       4, Sekeri Street
       106 74 Athens
       Phone: +30 210 3605002
       Fax:   +30 210 3606935
       Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr
       Email: gbr@gbrconsulting.gr

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GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1

  • 1. Tourism Barometer 2013 Q1 Expectations of the Greek Hospitality Sector January 2013
  • 2. Survey characteristics • The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 January 2013, among hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece; • The survey was anonymous and 198 hotels completed the online questionnaire, of which 163 fully. The distribution of those was as follows: – 49% are city hotels and 51% resort hotels; – 22% are 5*, 32% 4*, 20% 3*, 25% 2* and 1% 1* hotels. • The survey includes forecasts for 2013 Q1 as well as for 2013 as a whole. • Survey results are published in the press and on www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
  • 3. Main Conclusions • The Greek hotel sector is optimistic for 2013 overall, with increasing occupancy levels and stabilising room rates. • However, this optimism does not include the first quarter of 2013, for which stabilising occupancies were forecasted with declining room rates, but apparently hoteliers are expecting improvements beyond Q1. • City hoteliers are expecting improvements in occupancy levels, but decreases in room rates in 2013. Overall RevPAR in 2013 is expected to be on par with 2012. • Also the Athenian hoteliers are predicting that the fall in occupancy and room rates of recent years will more or less bottom out in 2013. They expect stabilising occupancy levels and slightly lower room rates. • The resort hoteliers expect a very good year. Occupancy performance is expected to strongly improve, while room rates are also forecasted to increase, albeit at a lower level than occupancy. • The 5 and 4 star hotel sectors see positive developments with increases in occupancy and room rates levels. The 3 and 2 star segments are more cautious as they forecast stabilising to slightly increasing occupancy rates, but decreases in room rates.
  • 4. How to read the Quarter meters • All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for: – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page 37% expects The needle shows the stabilisation – overall expectation / between -2% and +2% feeling1 18% expects an 19% expects a increase - decrease – 37% between 2% and 5% 19% between 2% and 5% 18% 19% 7% 19% expects a 7% expects an decrease – increase – more than 5% more than 5% 1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
  • 5. Survey results Expectations for 2013 Q1 • All hotels • City hotels – Athens hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Other city hotels • Resort hotels – Crete hotels • Hotels per category – 5 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 2 star hotels
  • 7. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» All hotels 34% 48% 9% 24% 13% The outlook of the Greek hoteliers for the 23% 11% 19% 14% first quarter of the new 5% year of 2013 shows 6CC ARR stabilising occupancy levels compared to same quarter last year and falling room rates. «MARKET IN GENERAL» Contrary to what is customary, Hoteliers 29% 24% 40% are of the opinion that 8% 12% 17% the market in general 20% will outperform their 19% 21% 11% own hotels, as they expect slightly bigger 6CC ARR increases in occupancy and smaller drops in % of respondents that expected room rates compared to their own hotels. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 1 2 – 5% >5%
  • 8. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» City hotels 39% 12% 14% 48% The city hoteliers expect further drops in 17% both occupancy and 25% 30% 5% 8% 3% room rates this quarter compared to same 6CC ARR quarter last year. The expected drop in occupancy will be less though than the «MARKET IN GENERAL» expected drop in room rates. 32% 17% 38% 13% Forecasts for their own 18% hotels are at a similar 26% 26% 11% level as the forecasts 10% 8% for the market in 6CC ARR general. For both, most hoteliers expect a stabilising trend this % of respondents that expected quarter for both occupancy and rates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 9. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 17% 48% 18% 50% The Athenian hoteliers remain pessimistic as 21% 25% they expect significant 14% 7% drops in both 6CC ARR occupancy and ARR for the first quarter of 2013 compared to Q1 2012. The market in «MARKET IN GENERAL» general shows a similar trend, where at least a quarter of the 18% 39% 19% 38% hoteliers expect drops of 5% or more for both 14% 27% 15% occupancy and room 25% 4% rates. 6CC ARR A large group expects a stabilising trend for % of respondents that expected both their own hotel as well as for the market Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase overall. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 10. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 19% hotels 13% 19% 7% 43% 7% Hoteliers in 25% 25% 29% 14% Thessaloniki expect stabilising occupancy 6CC ARR levels and falling room rates this first quarter. For the market overall «MARKET IN GENERAL» hoteliers are much more negative in their forecast as they predict 31% 50% 6% 7% sharply falling 25% occupancy and room 31% 29% 7% rates. About 38% 6% 7% predicts drops of 2% or 6CC ARR more in terms of occupancy and 36% a similar level of drops in % of respondents that expected room rates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 11. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 41% 13% 6% 48% The city hoteliers 35% 19% outside Athens and 28% Thessaloniki expect 6% 3% significant drops in 6CC ARR both occupancy and room rates, while for the market in general they are more «MARKET IN GENERAL» optimistic with stabilising occupancy levels compared to the 12% 27% 31% 18% 19% same quarter last year, 9% and smaller drops in 24% 18% 25% 16% room rates when compared to their own hotels, where 35% 6CC ARR expects drops in Average Room Rates % of respondents that expected of 5% and more. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 12. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 36% 26% 49% Contrary to the city 20% 24% 11% hotels, managers of 4% resort hotels are 10% 11% 9% optimistic for the first 6CC ARR quarter of 2013. They forecast sharp increases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL» levels and stabilising levels of room rates. 31% 43% 24% For the market overall 24% 33% they are even a bit 2% 6% more optimistic. 14% 12% 10% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%1 >5%
  • 13. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 36% in Crete 83% 26% 24% The hoteliers in Crete 8% are by far the most 8% optimistic of the 6CC ARR barometer survey of this quarter. For their own hotel «MARKET IN GENERAL» units nobody predicted a drop, nor in occupancy nor in room 46% 50% 25% rates. A vast majority of 83% expects that 15% 31% 17% their ARR will be at 8% 8% around the same level 6CC ARR as last year’s Q1, but with soaring occupancy levels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 14. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 5 star hotels 33% 17% 50% 10% 30% 14% 18% The 5 star hoteliers have given a very 10% 11% 7% similar forecast for both 6CC ARR their own hotels and for the market as a whole. They expect sharp «MARKET IN GENERAL» increases in occupancy this first quarter with similar room rates as 27% 17% 41% last year’s first quarter. 10% 11% 22% 30% 30% expects increases 17% 15% 11% in occupancy levels of 5% and more for both 6CC ARR their own units as well as for the market in % of respondents that expected general. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 15. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 4 star hotels 32% 56% 30% 5% 14% Like the 5 star 11% 16% 16% 11% 8% hoteliers, the 4 star hoteliers are also 6CC ARR optimistic with small increases in occupancy and stabilising room rate levels. «MARKET IN GENERAL» For the market as a whole they are more 28% 36% 42% optimistic with 11% 19% considerable 3% 18% 14% improvements in 15% 14% occupancy this quarter compared to last year 6CC ARR and stabilising room rates. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 16. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 3 star 13% 27% hotels 11% 46% 30% Contrary to the 5 and 4 27% 29% 11% star hotels the 3 star 3% 4% hotels are not that 6CC ARR optimistic for the start of 2013. They expect emptier «MARKET IN GENERAL» hotels this quarter 1 compared to last years’ Q1 as well as sharp 13% 27% 18% 43% drops in their Average 20% Room Rates. 27% 25% 11% 13% 4% The forecasts of the market in general are 6CC ARR at a similar level of the forecasts of their own % of respondents that expected hotel units. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 17. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 2 star 41% 12% hotels 7% 40% 44% 21% The 2 star hoteliers 24% predict mild drops in 7% 4% occupancy levels for 6CC ARR their own hotels and significant drops in their room rates this quarter. An astonishing «MARKET IN GENERAL» 44% expects drops of 5% and more. 31% 31% 20% 10% For the market overall 9% 14% they are much more 31% 20% positive with 14% 20% improvements in occupancy levels. 6CC ARR However, they also predict sharply falling % of respondents that expected room rates albeit not as much as for their Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase own hotels. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 18. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
  • 19. Survey results Expectations for 2013 as a whole • All hotels • City hotels – Athens hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Other city hotels • Resort hotels – Crete hotels • Hotels per category – 5 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 2 star hotels
  • 20. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» All hotels 24% 34% 43% 21% The Greek hotel sector 12% 11% is optimistic for 2013. 21% 12% 12% 10% Hoteliers are 6CC ARR forecasting increasing occupancy levels and stabilising room rates. «MARKET IN GENERAL» Forecasts for their own 1 hotel units and for the market as a whole are 32% 41% 23% at a similar level. 19% 13% 12% 24% This optimism is not 13% 14% 10% based though on the first quarter of 2013. 6CC ARR Apparently hoteliers expect improvements % of respondents that expected beyond Q1. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 21. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» City hotels 26% 44% 30% The city hoteliers are 17% 14% 17% more optimistic for the 16% 16% whole year than for the 12% 9% first quarter of this 6CC ARR year. They expect mild increases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL» levels and drops up to 5% overall in room rates. 27% 43% 31% 17% 17% 14% The outlook for the 17% market in general is 12% 13% 9% similar to the forecasts of their own hotels. 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 1 >5%
  • 22. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 37% 47% For 2013 as a whole 27% 23% 10% 23% the Athenian hoteliers forecasts to perform at 3% 10% 10% 10% a similar level as 2012, 6CC ARR which would mean that the continuous fall in recent years of occupancy and room «MARKET IN GENERAL» rate levels has bottomed out. They expect similar 27% 40% occupancy levels as 27% 30% 23% 13% last year and mild decreases in room 7% 10% 13% 10% rates. 6CC ARR Their own hotels are expected to perform on % of respondents that expected par with the market as a whole. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 23. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 13% hotels 38% 44% 13% 6% 19% Hoteliers in 19% 19% 19% 13% Thessaloniki expect another increase this 6CC ARR year in occupancy levels, while room rates of their own hotels are expected to «MARKET IN GENERAL» stabilise. 1 For the market overall 44% 19% 50% the room rates are 19% 13% 19% expected to drop slightly. 13% 13% 6% 6% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%1 >5% 1
  • 24. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 23% 42% 29% 13% 10% Also the other city 23% hotels are following the 19% 19% 16% overall trend of the city 6% hotels: improvements 6CC ARR in occupancy levels and decreases in room rates. Thus RevPAR is expected to be at the «MARKET IN GENERAL» same level as 2012. Forecasts for their own 32% 45% 23% 10% hotel are very similar to 10% 13% the forecasts for the 23% 19% market overall. 16% 10% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 25. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 38% 42% 22% 25% The resort hoteliers expect a good year. 27% 10% 5% 16% 8% 8% Occupancy 6CC ARR performance is expected to improve strongly for their own hotel units. They also «MARKET IN GENERAL» expect improvements in room rates. 39% 24% 32% For the market in 19% general hoteliers are 9% 6% 35% 18% very positive with 8% 9% significantly higher occupancy and room 6CC ARR rates levels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 26. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 50% in Crete 53% 26% 30% Following an expected 20% 16% strong Q1 of 2013 they 5% also predict a very 6CC ARR good year overall where 80% of respondents expect increases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL» of 2% or more and 42% a similar increase 32% in room rates. 40% 42% 40% Similar levels of 15% 21% optimism can be seen 5% 5% in the barometres of 6CC ARR the market in general. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 27. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 5 star hotels 18% 32% 38% 26% The 5 star hoteliers 18% 29% 15% expect a positive year 15% 3% 6% with strong improvements in 6CC ARR occupancy compared to last year and increases in room «MARKET IN GENERAL» rates. 1 They are not only 36% 39% 12% optimistic for their own 21% hotel units, but also for 15% 30% 21% the 5 star segment as 6% 12% 6% a whole. 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 28. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 4 star 42% hotels 45% 24% 24% 26% The 4 star hoteliers are 18% 8% very optimistic for 6% 2% 4% 2013. A vast majority 6CC ARR expects increases of 2% or more for their own hotels and around 42% similar increases «MARKET IN GENERAL» in room rates. 1 Also for the 4 star 33% 43% 22% segment overall the 24% hoteliers are very 31% 4% 20% 8% positive for 2013 with 10% 4% increases in both occupancy and room 6CC ARR rate levels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 1 >5%
  • 29. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 3 star 35% hotels 13% 52% 10% 29% 10% Contrary to the very 16% 16% 10% positive outlook for 10% 2013 of the 5 and 4 6CC ARR star hoteliers, the hoteliers in the 3 star segment are more cautious. They expect «MARKET IN GENERAL» stabilising occupancy levels for both their own hotels as well as 32% 45% 29% 13% for the market overall. 6% 13% 19% 19% In terms of room rates 13% 10% they are predicting drops in comparison 6CC ARR with 2012, both for their own hotels and for % of respondents that expected the market in general. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 30. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 2 star hotels 21% 16% 37% 13% 29% 21% The 2 star segment 18% 18% 21% shows a mixed picture. 5% They expect pressure 6CC ARR on their room rates this year, while their occupancy is expected to improve. «MARKET IN GENERAL» The market in general 26% 37% shows a similar picture as the barometers of 18% 18% 18% 26% their own hotels. 18% 16% 11% 11% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 1 >5%
  • 31. Tourism Barometer 2013 Q1 Expectations Greek Hospitality Sector 4, Sekeri Street 106 74 Athens Phone: +30 210 3605002 Fax: +30 210 3606935 Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr Email: gbr@gbrconsulting.gr