5. “When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line
with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius ,
which would have …
…devastating consequences for the planet.”
“We have 5 years to change the energy system…
…or have it changed”
Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist
6. Things are getting worse!
Global CO2 emission trends?
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
~ 5.9% 2009-2010
~ 3.2 % 2010-2011
(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)
7. The State of Play
“To hold the increase in global temperature below
2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective
consistent with science”
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
Committee on Climate Change global budget has
56% chance of exceeding 2C
UK Government adopts a pathway with a
63% chance of exceeding 2C
8. The Challenge
UK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050
EU 60%-80% 2050
Bali 50% 2050
CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous
climate change (2°C)
It is cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon
budget)
This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of
climate change
- from long term gradual reductions
- to urgent & radical reductions
9. The Challenge
“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than a
planned economic recession being compatible with
stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.”
Anderson & Bows 2008
10. Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways
AR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range
2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
80
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
80 80
Low DL
60 Low DH
60 60
Medium DL
Medium DH
High DL
40 High DH
40 40
20
20 20
0
0 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year Year
Year
Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366.
pp.3863-3882)
11. … and for energy emissions?
(with 2020 peak)
60 2015 peak Medium DL
2015 peak High DL
2015 peak High DH
2020 peak High DL
13 of 18 scenarios 50
Emissions of CO2 alone (GtCO2)
2020 peak High DH
‘impossible’
40
Even then total 30
decarbonisation by 10-20% annual reductions –
~2035-45 necessary 20 even for a high probability of
exceeding 2°C
Globally: no emission 10
space for coal, gas,
or shale – even with
CCS! 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
17. The Problems
All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate
change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give
negative emissions (geoengineering)
Most scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous
climate change use a large expansion of nuclear power
Assumptions about ‘big’ technology naively optimistic
Recent historical emissions massaged
Short-term emissions growth seriously downplayed
Reduction rate universally dictated by economists
Annex 1/Non-Annex 1 split neglected or hidden
Senior Government Advisor: “We can’t tell [ministers
and politicians that 2oC is] not possible”
18. And 4oC?
Emissions must peak no later than 2020
A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative
At least it’s achievable…
19. The Downside
For 4°C global mean surface temperature
5°C - 6°C global land mean
And an increase on the hottest days of:
6°C - 8°C in China
8°C - 10°C in Central Europe
10°C -12°C in New York
And in low latitudes 4 C gives up to 40% reduction in
maize and rice as population heads towards 9 billion
by 2050
20. The Situation
There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is
incompatible with an organised global community
is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’
is devastating to the majority of eco-systems
and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C
would be an interim temperature on the way to a much
higher equilibrium level).
Consequently… 4°C should be avoided at all costs
21. Energy Emissions
10% reduction year-on-year
Impossible?
Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of global
population
Including *probably* everyone in this room
Anyone who ever sets foot on a plane
Anyone in the UK earning over ~£30k
24. Wales leading the way
“Wales is a definite leader in
promoting sustainable
development”
25. 20
Wales leading the way
?
Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar
18
(normalised to 2003)
16
14
12
England
10 Northern Ireland
8 Scotland
Wales
6
4
2
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
26. 25
Wales leading the way
?
Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar
(partly normalised to 2003)
20
South East
East Midlands
East
15
West Midlands
London
10 North West
North East
South West
5 Yorkshire and the Humber
Wales
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
27. Wales leading the way
?
Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011)
(MW per 1000 people)