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Exam 3 Review

The Basic Tools of Finance
     Islamic Finance
     Unemployment
Finance
 Time
 Risk
Time
Future Value
Present Value
Future Value
What something today
 will be worth in the
         future

   Compounding
Present Value
What something in the
future is worth today

     Discounting
N
      (1+r)
r = Rate of compounding
N = Number of Periods
Compounding               Discounting
                                 1   
     (1+r) N
                               (1+r) N


 Future Value             Present Value
Multiply Present Value   Multiply Future Value
  by factor to get         by factor to get
    Future Value            Present Value
Two ways to get Present Value

      PV = FV x   1   
                (1+r) N

             or

         PV =   FV   
              (1+r) N
Rewrite
  FV = PV x Factor

   FV = PV x Factor
Factor     Factor
        PV = FV
             Factor
1. Calculate factor   (1+r) N

2. Is the problem FV or PV?
3. If FV then multiply by PV
FV = PV x Factor
4. If PV then divide FV by
PV = FV ÷ Factor
Future Value

= Present Value x   (1+r) N
Present Value = 500
r = 5% or .05
N= 4
Future Value = ?
= PV x (1+.05) 4

= PV x 1.2155
= 500 x 1.2155
= 607.75
Present Value

= Future Value ÷   (1+r) N
Future Value = 2000
r = 8% or .08
N= 5
Present Value = ?
= FV ÷ (1+.08) 5

= FV ÷ 1.4693
= 2000 ÷ 1.4693
= 1361.16
Questions
    Always given r and N
If given PV, then solve for FV
If given FV then solve for PV
           PV   = FV ?
r and N
           FV   =   PV ?
Risk
  Don’t like Risk
   Risk Adverse
Cannot always avoid
 Reduce exposure
Diversification
Replace one large risk
  with lots of small
   unrelated risks
                Small              Small

Small
Risk
                Risk
                        Large      Risk




        Small
                         Risk
                           Small
                           Risk
                                           Small
                                           Risk

        Risk
Insurance
     Sharing risk
Does not eliminate risk
Reduce your exposure
How to Fund an Insurance Pool
         Estimate Loss
      Estimate Probability


  Premium = Loss x Probability
  Members = Loss ÷ Premium
How to Fund an Insurance Pool
           Loss = 100
    Probability 1 in 20 or .05


    Premium = 100 x .05 = 5
    Members = 100 ÷ 5 = 20
Adverse Selection
Making a bad choice
due to asymmetric
   information
Moral Hazard
Changing behavior after
    an agreement

 Temptation to abuse
   the other party
Three Risks
  Firm Risk
Industry Risk
 Market Risk
Speculative Bubble
Price is greater than
 fundamental value

Buy because everyone
    else is buying
Chapter 28

 Islamic
 Finance
Islamic Finance
   Must have an asset
involved in the exchange

 No money for money
Islamic
Profit and loss sharing system

        Non Islamic
   interest-based system
Shariah - Sacred Law
Riba - Usury -Interest
Gharar - Uncertainty
Haram - Prohibitied
Halal - Permitted
Zakat - Religious Tax
Hiba - Gift
Deposits
	

 Current
   	

 Saving -Wadiah
	

 Investment - Mudarabah
Equity Financing
	

 Mudarabah - Risk
	

 Musharakah - Share Risk
Asset Financing
	

 Murabahah - Resell
	

 Salem - Crop Loan
	

 Ijarah Leasing - Return
Sukuk - Bonds
Takaful - Insurance
Future
Different views and interpretations
              Evolving
      No uniform consensus

     Five schools of thought
       Shafi’i, Maliki, Hanafi,
        Hanbali, and Shi’a
Chapter 29

Unemployment
Saudi Labor Force                                       Around
 Total Population                                          30 million

 Non-Saudis                                                10 million

 Saudis                                                    20 million

 Adult Population Age 15+                                  11 million

 Not in Labor Force                                         6 million

 In Labor Force                                             5 million

 Labor Force Participation Rate                                 45%

 Employed                                                 4.4 million

 Unemployed                                             600 thousand

 Unemployment Rate                                              12%
Source: General Statistics Department and Information
Employed
          paid employees
      work in own business
unpaid workers in family business
     full-time and part-time
  jobs but temporary absence
Unemployed
          not employed
            available
tried to find a job in the last four
              weeks
waiting to be recalled from layoff
Discouraged
     Workers
People who would like
to work but have given
  up looking for a job
Not in Labor Force
not employed or unemployed
    discouraged workers
       full-time student
          homemaker
             retiree
Unemployment Rate
The percentage of the
  labor force that is
     unemployed
Employment Analysis   Saudi     U.S   China


Unemployment Rate     12.2%    7.9%    4.1%


Participation Rate    45.0%   63.3%   74.2%
Natural Rate of
    Unemployment
  The normal rate of
 unemployment around
which the unemployment
     rate fluctuates
Cyclical
   Unemployment
   The deviation of
unemployment from its
     natural rate
Problems
Overstate - Above actual
    Cash workers

Understate - Below actual
 Discouraged workers
Unemployment
  Frictional
   Seasonal
  Structural
Frictional
Time to find a new job
Seasonal
Demand changes with
    the season
Structural
 Too many workers

Change in demand for
        skills
Structural
Creative Destruction

     10% a Year
Unemployment
     Insurance
Government program to
 provide income when
   workers become
     unemployed
Unemployment
       Insurance
Unintended Consequence
      Moral Hazard
May prolong unemployment
Why are wages too
       high?
Minimum wage laws
      Unions
 Efficiency Wages
Minimum Wage Laws

  Government sets a
minimum wage that can
    legally be paid
Wage                        Minimum Wage                   Minimum Wage
                              40 workers                    20 workers
 4,000                          20 jobs                      get a raise
                            20 unemployed                   10 workers
                                                 Supply       lose job
                               workers
 3,000
             Minimum                                           10 new
                                                            unemployed
              Wage                                            workers

 2,000
                                                                Equilibrium
                                                                   Wage
 1,000
                                                                30 workers
                                                                  30 jobs
                                                                    no
                                                 Demand        unemployment
    0
         0      10     20        30         40   50       60
                                                 Workers
Efficiency Wages
Higher wages make
 more productive
    employees
Efficiency Wages
Employee   Wage   Pizzas   Productivity
                           Wage per Pizza



  Ali      100      5          20.0


Abdullah   200     12          16.7
Efficiency Wages
 More Healthy
Lower Turnover
Higher Quality
  More Effort

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Eco 202 exam 3 review

  • 1. Exam 3 Review The Basic Tools of Finance Islamic Finance Unemployment
  • 4. Future Value What something today will be worth in the future Compounding
  • 5. Present Value What something in the future is worth today Discounting
  • 6. N (1+r) r = Rate of compounding N = Number of Periods
  • 7. Compounding Discounting 1    (1+r) N (1+r) N Future Value Present Value Multiply Present Value Multiply Future Value by factor to get by factor to get Future Value Present Value
  • 8. Two ways to get Present Value PV = FV x 1    (1+r) N or PV = FV    (1+r) N
  • 9. Rewrite FV = PV x Factor FV = PV x Factor Factor Factor PV = FV Factor
  • 10. 1. Calculate factor (1+r) N 2. Is the problem FV or PV? 3. If FV then multiply by PV FV = PV x Factor 4. If PV then divide FV by PV = FV ÷ Factor
  • 11. Future Value = Present Value x (1+r) N
  • 12. Present Value = 500 r = 5% or .05 N= 4 Future Value = ? = PV x (1+.05) 4 = PV x 1.2155 = 500 x 1.2155 = 607.75
  • 13. Present Value = Future Value ÷ (1+r) N
  • 14. Future Value = 2000 r = 8% or .08 N= 5 Present Value = ? = FV ÷ (1+.08) 5 = FV ÷ 1.4693 = 2000 ÷ 1.4693 = 1361.16
  • 15. Questions Always given r and N If given PV, then solve for FV If given FV then solve for PV PV = FV ? r and N FV = PV ?
  • 16. Risk Don’t like Risk Risk Adverse Cannot always avoid Reduce exposure
  • 17. Diversification Replace one large risk with lots of small unrelated risks Small Small Small Risk Risk Large Risk Small Risk Small Risk Small Risk Risk
  • 18. Insurance Sharing risk Does not eliminate risk Reduce your exposure
  • 19. How to Fund an Insurance Pool Estimate Loss Estimate Probability Premium = Loss x Probability Members = Loss ÷ Premium
  • 20. How to Fund an Insurance Pool Loss = 100 Probability 1 in 20 or .05 Premium = 100 x .05 = 5 Members = 100 ÷ 5 = 20
  • 21. Adverse Selection Making a bad choice due to asymmetric information
  • 22. Moral Hazard Changing behavior after an agreement Temptation to abuse the other party
  • 23. Three Risks Firm Risk Industry Risk Market Risk
  • 24. Speculative Bubble Price is greater than fundamental value Buy because everyone else is buying
  • 26. Islamic Finance Must have an asset involved in the exchange No money for money
  • 27. Islamic Profit and loss sharing system Non Islamic interest-based system
  • 28. Shariah - Sacred Law Riba - Usury -Interest Gharar - Uncertainty Haram - Prohibitied Halal - Permitted Zakat - Religious Tax Hiba - Gift
  • 29. Deposits Current Saving -Wadiah Investment - Mudarabah Equity Financing Mudarabah - Risk Musharakah - Share Risk Asset Financing Murabahah - Resell Salem - Crop Loan Ijarah Leasing - Return Sukuk - Bonds Takaful - Insurance
  • 30. Future Different views and interpretations Evolving No uniform consensus Five schools of thought Shafi’i, Maliki, Hanafi, Hanbali, and Shi’a
  • 32. Saudi Labor Force Around Total Population 30 million Non-Saudis 10 million Saudis 20 million Adult Population Age 15+ 11 million Not in Labor Force 6 million In Labor Force 5 million Labor Force Participation Rate 45% Employed 4.4 million Unemployed 600 thousand Unemployment Rate 12% Source: General Statistics Department and Information
  • 33. Employed paid employees work in own business unpaid workers in family business full-time and part-time jobs but temporary absence
  • 34. Unemployed not employed available tried to find a job in the last four weeks waiting to be recalled from layoff
  • 35. Discouraged Workers People who would like to work but have given up looking for a job
  • 36. Not in Labor Force not employed or unemployed discouraged workers full-time student homemaker retiree
  • 37. Unemployment Rate The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
  • 38. Employment Analysis Saudi U.S China Unemployment Rate 12.2% 7.9% 4.1% Participation Rate 45.0% 63.3% 74.2%
  • 39. Natural Rate of Unemployment The normal rate of unemployment around which the unemployment rate fluctuates
  • 40. Cyclical Unemployment The deviation of unemployment from its natural rate
  • 41. Problems Overstate - Above actual Cash workers Understate - Below actual Discouraged workers
  • 42. Unemployment Frictional Seasonal Structural
  • 45. Structural Too many workers Change in demand for skills
  • 47. Unemployment Insurance Government program to provide income when workers become unemployed
  • 48. Unemployment Insurance Unintended Consequence Moral Hazard May prolong unemployment
  • 49. Why are wages too high? Minimum wage laws Unions Efficiency Wages
  • 50. Minimum Wage Laws Government sets a minimum wage that can legally be paid
  • 51. Wage Minimum Wage Minimum Wage 40 workers 20 workers 4,000 20 jobs get a raise 20 unemployed 10 workers Supply lose job workers 3,000 Minimum 10 new unemployed Wage workers 2,000 Equilibrium Wage 1,000 30 workers 30 jobs no Demand unemployment 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Workers
  • 52. Efficiency Wages Higher wages make more productive employees
  • 53. Efficiency Wages Employee Wage Pizzas Productivity Wage per Pizza Ali 100 5 20.0 Abdullah 200 12 16.7
  • 54. Efficiency Wages More Healthy Lower Turnover Higher Quality More Effort