Forecasting6

Quantitative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Moving Average ,[object Object],[object Object]

“I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place.” ,[object Object]

Moving Average – When To Use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Moving Average - Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object]

Moving Average - Disadvantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Trend Regression ,[object Object],[object Object]

“The best qualification of a prophet is to have a good memory.” ,[object Object]

Trend Regression – When To Use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Trend Regression - Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object]

Trend Regression – Disadvantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Exponential Smoothing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organized.” ,[object Object]

Simple Exponential Smoothing ,[object Object],[object Object]

Simple Exponential Smoothing – When To Use ,[object Object]

Double (Brown) or Holt Exponential Smoothing ,[object Object],[object Object]

Double (Brown) or Holt Exponential Smoothing – When to Use ,[object Object]

Winter’s Exponential Smoothing ,[object Object]

Winter’s Exponential Smoothing – When to Use ,[object Object]

Exponential Smoothing Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Exponential Smoothing - Disadvantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than illumination” ,[object Object]

ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Models – When to Use ,[object Object]

ARIMA ( Box-Jenkins) Models - Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Models - Disadvantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Models Example

Econometric Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” ,[object Object]

Econometric Models – When to Use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Econometric Models - Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Econometric Models - Disadvantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Res. DA Model ,[object Object]

Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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