International and US domestic data on gun related crime rate.

1. International Gun Homicide Data
& Perspective on the Gun Control
Debate
Gaetan Lion
December 19, 2012
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2. The US stands out…
Among other developed
Firearm
Firearm Firearm homicide rate countries, Americans’
per 1,000 in millions per 100,000 ownership rate of guns
US 88.8 270 2.97
Switzerland 45.7 3.4 0.77 (firearm per 1,000) is far
Finland 45.3 2.4 0.45 higher at 88.8. The
Sweden 31.6 2.8 0.41
Norway 31.3 1.4 0.05 prevalence of guns is
France 31.2 19 0.06 amazing at 270 millions.
Canada 30.8 10 0.51
Austria 30.4 2.5 0.22 And, the related gun crime
Germany 30.3 25 0.19 rate (2.97 per 100,000) is
Iceland 30.3 0.1 0
New Zealand 22.6 0.9 0.16 a high multiple of any
Australia 15 3 0.14 other developed nations
Japan 1.8 0.7 0.01
shown.
Sources: the Guardian Datablog, UNODC 2011 &
Small arms survey 2007.
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3. Very high correlation between gun
ownership rate and gun homicide rate
Firearm
Firearm homicide rate
This correlation stands at 0.9
per 1,000 per 100,000 very close to a perfect positive
US 88.8 2.97 correlation of 1. Therefore, gun
Switzerland 45.7 0.77
Finland 45.3 0.45 ownership rate explains 81%
Sweden 31.6 0.41 (square of correlation) of gun
Norway 31.3 0.05
homicide rate.
France 31.2 0.06
Canada 30.8 0.51
Austria 30.4 0.22
Germany 30.3 0.19
Iceland 30.3 0
New Zealand 22.6 0.16
Australia 15 0.14
Japan 1.8 0.01
Correlation 0.90
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4. Other study finds close correlation between % of
households with guns vs % of crimes that are murders
Note the variables are different than the ones I used. And, the relationship is not
linear but exponential. Yet, the strength of that relationship is amazing. 4

5. Even factoring higher gun ownership,
the US homicide rate stands out
Actual Trend est. A linear regression generates
Firearm Firearm
Firearm homicide rate homicide rate Actual/ pretty good homicide rate
per 1,000 per 100,000 per 100,000 Trend estimates of a country given
US 88.8 2.97 1.03 2.9
Switzerland 45.7 0.77 0.47 1.6 its gun ownership rate.
Finland 45.3 0.45 0.46 1.0
Sweden 31.6 0.41 0.28 1.4 However, for the US its actual
Norway 31.3 0.05 0.28 0.2
France 31.2 0.06 0.28 0.2
gun homicide rate is nearly 3
Canada 30.8 0.51 0.27 1.9 times higher than what the
Austria 30.4 0.22 0.27 0.8
Germany 30.3 0.19 0.27 0.7
regression line trend suggests
Iceland 30.3 0 0.27 0.0
New Zealand 22.6 0.16 0.17 1.0
Australia 15 0.14 0.07 2.1
Japan 1.8 0.01 na na
What this means is that not only Americans have a lot more guns than
anyone else, but that Americans use them nearly 3 times as much to kill
each other than citizens of other developed countries.
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More guns times more usage = much higher homicide rate.

6. Visual Data
This visualizes the
data on the previous
slide. The red dots
are the actual data.
The blue ones are
the regression
estimates that fit the
data very well of any
other country except
for the US (at the
right) where the
actual homicide rate
level is nearly 3 times
the estimate.
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7. Thoughts
Reducing gun ownership through gun control legislation is indispensable to
resolving this issue. But, other related confounding cultural factors remain that
cause the US homicide rate to be so much higher than as predicted.
Key questions include who owns those guns? Why do they own them? And,
what kind of guns are they?
Notice that Switzerland and Scandinavian countries have relatively high gun
ownership rates. Yet, their related homicide rate is far smaller than the US. In
Switzerland, the ownership rate is boosted by the fact that every male active in
the military (2 weeks mandatory service per year) keeps his military rifle at
home. And, this fact probably accounts for nearly 100% of the gun ownership in
this country. Probably similar factors are true in Scandinavia and other
European countries.
From a homicide implication, the answers to the mentioned questions are
probably more problematic (causal) for the US.
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8. Data access
You can readily access the data at this link.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/jul/22/gun-hom
.
I encourage you to study the data firsthand and draw
your own conclusion and share your findings with friends
and colleagues.
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9. Is there hope?
Yes, there is. A quick “Images” Google Search
reveals that while the US crime rate is extraordinarily
high for a developed country, it has declined since the
early 90s…
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10. # of Crimes has declined since the mid 90s
The current crime level is where it was back in the mid 80s. This
means the actual crime rate is a lot lower than in the mid 80s.
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11. # of crime by weapons has declined
since the 90s
Notice how handguns account for the majority
of the crimes. 11

12. Crime rate has declined since the 90s
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13. Different types of crime rates have
declined since the 90s
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14. Nonfatal gun related crime is dropping too
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15. Good trends in 2009 over 2008
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16. Gun Homicide rate by region
The blue surface
represents the
national trend. The
red one represents
the region’s trend.
See how low New
England is, and
how high West
South Central is.
Those trends
probably correlate
with income,
education,
unemployment. 16

17. Crime rate for four major cities
Three out of the
four cities show
spectacular
decline. However,
Houston’s crime
rate trend remains
flat.
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18. Crime rate by age group
The aging of
the population
bodes well for
crime rate.
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19. Conclusion
• In the first half of this presentation, we observed how both gun ownership
and gun related crime rates are extraordinarily high in the US vs any other
developed country;
• In the second half of the presentation, we shared how US crime rates of all
types have declined for the past twenty years;
• The combination of those two themes suggests that first there is a lot of
room for improvement. The US has a long way to go before it will narrow
the gap vs the much lower crime rate of its international counterparts. But,
second the situation is far from hopeless. Existing trends alone suggest our
crime rate should continue declining. This declining trend may be supported
by a combination of factors we have not explored much if at all including: 1)
aging of the population, 2) rising education levels, 3) rising living standards,
and 4) overall empowerment of women. Additionally, an improved Federal
gun control legislation would most probably support the mentioned crime
rate downtrend. To consider the counter argument, how could a gun control
legislation truly increase the gun related crime rate?
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