1. Avril 9, 2011 Sufficiency, from production to usage Frédéric Chomé Factor-Xthe Climate Consulting Group sprl ISEU Final meeting

2. (Free) ENERGY The Skyis the limit Really ? 2 Plenty of free lunches ahead of us !

3. World energy Consumption Nuke Hydro Gas Oil Coal 2000-2050: Energy x 3 Population x 1,5 1950 – 2000 : Energy x 5 Population x 2 Les émissions de CO2 provenant de combustibles fossiles ont été multipliées par plus de 4 depuis 1950 (source AIE 2004)

4. There’s much more Energy than Oil Reserves : 400+ Gtep Consumption : 11 GTtep If 2% growth => less than 100 years

5. Renewables : Not anfull-optionfor Europe Green energypreservesitsmarketshare in a flat economy but NO increase ! Green energy = ½ of growth in energyneeds 1/3 of growth in Elecneeds Over 1990 - 2007 141 Mtoe/year 7,8 % of primaryenergy consumption AVG +6 Mtoe / yr 2004-2007 +10 Mtoe 2006 & 2007 10 Mtoe/year 0.6 % of primaryenergy Consumption Source : Observatoire de l’Énergie, ADEME, CEREN 1807 Mtep/year for Gross Consumption

6. NegaWatt Plan : The Energy Challenge POLITICS PRIORITY Less Better (with the remaining) Clean (1/2 of actual consumption) Source: http://www.negawatt.org/

7. FromEnergy to GreenhouseGases Emissions : 1st Barrier 7

8. Flux Naturels Atmosphère Biosphère Océans Lithosphère Stocks et flux de carbone Flux anthropiques 14 Gteq Carbone ou 51 Gteq CO2 par an 8 En milliards de tonnes de carbone par an 61,5 60 92 90 0,8 0,04 10+ Gteq Carbone non recyclés annuellement Émissions totales : 150 GtC Séquestration : 153.5 GtC

9. 350 ppm pour 80% de certitude < 2°C 9 Source : Hansen & al. 2009 Ce que demande la science CO2 fossile : -85% till 2030

10. Country carbonfootprint Easy to compute but partial referentials 10

11. UNFCCC Carbonfootprint : GHG Inventory Belgium2007 : 132 millions teqCO2 Electricity Waste Transports Industry Buildings Agriculture 1 % 18 % 30 % 22 % 8 % 21 % - 9% Depuis 1990 - 15% Depuis 1990 + 20% Depuis 1990 - 24% Depuis 1990 + 13% Depuis 1990 - 12% Depuis 1990 Carbon production in Belgium (approx) Source :climat.be Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet

12. How Much GHG in Belgium’s GDPEn Belgique en 2008 : 132,6 millions teqCO2 Source : climaterchange.be Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet X 5,7 161,1 millions teqCO2 752,3 millions teqCO2 Énergie Déchets Transports Industrie Bâtiments Agriculture 1 % 18 % 32 % 22 % 7 % 20 % 26,1 MtCO2eq 1,3 MtCO2eq 24,1 MtCO2eq 41,4 MtCO2eq 28,6 MtCO2eq 9,1 MtCO2eq +21,5 % +467 % 28,5 MtCO2eq 591,2 MtCO2eq Source : Agence pour le commerce extérieur Source : SPF économie, brochure Transport 2009/10 Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges

13. EVOLUTION 1995 – 2010-11% ou +49 % ? +49% -11% GHG increasequickerthan GDP !!! Import/GDP 94% 46% 337 254 GDP Md€ 750 500 MTeqCO2 +33% Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges

14. Partial referential Strangepolitics NO good decisions Marginal operationalefficiency gains with no account of production & consumptionbehaviors 14

15. 15 Centralized Intermittent Energy ; WindMills production concentrated (few countries) Environmental ROI : 6 years Investor’s ROI : 0,5 year Green certificate bonus = 850 €/ tCO2 (avoided) CO2 marketprice : 13 €/tCO2

16. 8 to 10 years for construction GHG payback in Belgium 16 Financial ROI : 20% GHG ROI : 10% max But the system allows to decentraliseenergy production and to tend towardsenergysufficency for buildings

18. Versus 560 eur / yearOf green certificates for

19. 18 Housingconstruction growth = 3 x population growth Yearly new constructions < 1% of total existing constructions Natural materials DO REALLY HELP to reduce the environmental impacts of the construction phase Building = designed by an architect, sometimeforgotten fluxes Buildings CO2 = CO2 Building phase + Lifetime CO2Energy usages + Lifetime CO2Induced transport + CO2Demolition Buildings CO2 = CO2/kWh x kWh/m2 x m2/resident xResidents/householdx Nb households+ Mobility of inhabitants

20. Bilan de travaux de construction et de réhabilitation New buildings are 6 x more carbon intensive thanretrofit 45 years of earnings as pay-back of construction Equiv. To building Lifetime NO real gains ImproveSavings (Commuting, energy,…) Reduce Construction impacts Earnings/year BEFORE AFTER

21. 20 Transport GHG rose by 30% from 1990 Efficiency per km has been divided by 2 since 1990 + Citizens having + cars Doingeach + km CO2 = CO2/km xkm/car x Nb cars/householdx Nb households

22. 21 Replacement effect: The better the performance, the longer youkeep the car

23. Grey GHG: 3.500 kg CO2e Lifetimeenergy GHG : 1400 kg CO2e NO global Efficiency

24. Lighting All values in kg CO2e for 50.000 h in Belgium ConventionalHalogen Production : 88 Use : 521 TOTAL : 600 LED (Belgium) Production : 6,2 Use : 91 TOTAL : 97,2 LED (China) Production : 30,5 Use : 195 TOTAL : 225,5

25. Towards green Businesses 24

26. Relative vs. Absolute Decoupling Business Environmental impacts Zero impact Growth Relative Decoupling Action plan AbsoluteDecoupling Time Footprint t0

28. Inspiration fromDev. Countries

30. PSS & Idlingcapacity

32. Alternative marketing

33. Alternative business models, pricing

35. Electric Transport

36. Alternative fuels

37. Dessalinisation

38. Green-IT (ECO-TIC)

39. Green Buildings

40. CarbonCredits, markets

42. Crops

43. fresh water

44. GroundGreen Economy 2.0 Small scale, slow, network, collaborative lifestyles, Green = differentand cheaper Min 90% of Marketshare Green Economy 1.0 Large classical corporations, Green = better and more expensive max 10% of Marketshare

45. Initiating changes, evaluating risks 27 Product id ≠ New complementaryproductlines, close loops « Marginal gains » : optimisation, efficiency id Job / Mission New markets, service economy New vision, mission & business models ≠

46. 28

47. Money Money Money Do not expect help fromothers…. …Do it for yourself 29

49. GHG Belgique 2008 : 132,6 Million Tonnes CO2éq.

50. Added Value / tCO2e: 2600 Euros

52. Costs of inaction : 20% World GDP at least

53. Costs if 10 more yearsbefore actions x 5 for costs of action & inaction75 €/t CO2 NOW ! READY to allow 3% of your Gross margin to climate plans ?

55. What if ?

56. Indirect >> direct

57. Dependency vs impacts

58. Less , Better, Differently, someting else

59. From product to service

60. Increase lifetime & guarantee, making things last longer, PSS

61. Promote vertical integration (margin management) & B2C

62. Initiate, Develop and conslidatepostivie activities : More fun, more earnings, less environmental impacts.

63. New economic models for new activities : Green grey , lifecyclecosts, etc. Important changes are made by people like you and me A R E Y O U I N ? 31

64. Thank You ! 20, Rue du Château 6536 Thuin - BELGIUM Frederic.Chome@gmail.com Frédéric Chomé +32 (0) 474 701 832 www.theccgroup.eu Skype : fredchome Blog Demande à FredO : http://www.terra-economica.info/Demande-a-FredO,608.html 32