RAMS 2013 Tutorial Introduction to R & M Management
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Reworked the tutorial as I've been asked to take over this one going forward
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RAMS 2013 Tutorial Introduction to R & M Management
- 1. Introduction to R & M Management Fred Schenkelberg Ops A La Carte, LLC
- 2. Reliability Engineering & Management Consultant Fred Schenkelberg Senior Reliability Consultant Ops A La Carte, LLC (408) 710-8248 fms@opsalacarte.com 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 2
- 3. Tutorial Objectives To introduce an outline to guide management of an effective reliability program. To make you think about how to integrate reliability engineering within an organization. 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 4. First Challenge as Reliability Engineer New heating cable design How long will it last? 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 4
- 5. What did I need to know? Timeline Budget Samples What else? 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 6. How long1 or 5 year Is this a should it last? problem? What is the goal? How does your organization state reliability goals? 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 6
- 7. Outline of topics • Specifications • Apportionment • Feedback Mechanisms • What will fail? • When will it fail? • FRACAS • Maintenance Considerations • Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 7
- 8. 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 9. Reliability Goal Function Environment Duration Probability 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 10. Balance with other objectives Features or functions of the product Cost of the product Time to market Reliability 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 10
- 11. •Cable, sensor, power supply, Cable part of a larger system controller, and connectors • Materials, processes, assembly, design, transportation, and installation 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 11
- 12. Story of 50% field failure rate All elements met reliability goal. Field data agreed 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 12
- 13. Outline of topics • Specifications • Apportionment • Feedback Mechanisms • What will fail? • When will it fail? • FRACAS • Maintenance Considerations • Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 13
- 14. Apportion the goal Sys Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 14
- 15. Apportion the goal Sys Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5 With series system, product of sub system reliability is system reliability. 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 15
- 16. Apportion complete goal Function Environment Duration Probability 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 17. NoStory of “you need to improve reliability” goal No field data No Pareto of issues Just make it better, as warranty expenses too –high4A - Schenkelberg 2013 RAMS Tutorial 17
- 18. Outline of topics • Specifications • Apportionment • Feedback Mechanisms • What will fail? • When will it fail? • FRACAS • Maintenance Considerations • Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 19. Two basic questions What will fail? When will it fail? Information to permit appropriate product development decisions 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 19
- 20. Henry Petroski Design Paradigms 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 21. Discovery 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 21
- 22. Discovery Tools Discovery Tools 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 22
- 23. Outline of topics • Specifications • Apportionment • Feedback Mechanisms • What will fail? • When will it fail? • FRACAS • Maintenance Considerations • Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 24. When will it fail? Everything Fails at some point. 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 24
- 25. Typical early life failures Product does not meet design specifications Material or component characterization Process characterization Assembly characterization Process control – focus on what’s important 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 25
- 26. Prediction of early life failures Not commonly possibly for unknown variation Design in some margin Derating Safety factor Determine margin If variation is know, determine probability of failures – still difficult to know when though. 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 26
- 27. Hit by a big hammer Some stress is too large to accommodate Lightening Vehicle accident Meteor strike Hurricane Possibly foreseen or expected, and not economical to design the ability to withstand 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 27
- 28. Prediction of overstress Not commonly possibly Design errors Environment Unexpected use When significant adverse consequence may occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 28
- 29. Wear out and related Everything fails – eventually Understand failure mechanisms and environment The race to cause a failure 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 30. Prediction of wear out Guesses Estimates Predictions Previous products Models Testing 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 31. Life testing Standards Set levels Environmental extremes Single stress and model for acceleration factor Determine the model and acceleration factor Physics of failure modeling/testing Pick one that fits risk, resources, and time 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 31
- 32. Is it good enough? 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 32
- 33. Is it good enough? How do we know? 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 33
- 34. Is it good enough? How do we know? We understand the failure mechanisms & business objectives 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 34
- 35. Outline of topics Specifications Apportionment Feedback Mechanisms What will fail? When will it fail? FRACAS Maintenance Considerations Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
- 36. FRACAS A method to keep it all together Triage Prioritization Closure Grey area of when to stop fixing and ship 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 36
- 37. Maintenance Considerations 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 37
- 38. Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg 38
- 39. Summary Specifications Apportionment Feedback Mechanisms What will fail? When will it fail? FRACAS Maintenance Considerations Value 2013 RAMS – Tutorial 4A - Schenkelberg
Editor's Notes
- Describe problem, scope and timeline. What I knew and didn’t know. Just part of a larger development project.
- When decision needs to be madeHow important is the decisionTesting resources (chambers, measurement systems)Model and failure mechanismsWhat models and testing would be acceptable (believed)?
- 20 year product with very few or none dropping in power output by 20% or more. Buried in concrete tied to rebar in mountain road bridges, activated during and for 4 hours after snowfall.
- First three are nearly possible to measure every day – R is not and at best only estimated. How to balance and make the appropriate decisions.Slightly different for maintained units – function, cost to maintain, time to repair, and availability
- The cable is part of a larger system
- Story of 50% field failure rate
- Include key suppliers or vendors by providing them full reliability goals appropriate to their element of the product
- Include key suppliers or vendors by providing them full reliability goals appropriate to their element of the product
- Maricopa & Phoenix Railroad Bridge Collapse – 1902 in Tempe AZ – flood water weaken – collapsed in following dry season
- Petroski – designers design away from failureIf it is unknown what will fail, how can the design avoid it?Current standing bridge built in 1912
- Literature, previous field returns, root cause analysis of any failure, engineering judgment, modeling and simulations, experimentationImage is a colored wood engraving, called Universum and is from The Flammarion engraving is a wood engraving by an unknown artist, so named because its first documented appearance is in Camille Flammarion's 1888 book L'atmosphère: météorologie populaire ("The Atmosphere: Popular Meteorology")
- Supply Chain and Manufacturing VariationOverstress conditionsWear out and related
- Rolling stones t shirt – new employee and separating circuit boards by hand
- Old diesel train buffer’s between cars
- Story of one organization with 31 failure mechanisms and model used for decision making
- Cable reliability testing and models
- Story of study by intern on what was found and what caused field failures
- Story of using reliability to achieve availability