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Establishing Product Reliability Goals
Fred Schenkelberg, Ops A La Carte, LLC

Key Words: reliability, specification, goal, process

                SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
                                                                                       2 A RELIABILITY GOAL
     The way we communicate goals directly impacts the
                                                                          The common understanding of „reliable‟ involves
achievement of the goal. Creating and succinctly stating a
                                                                     concepts like trust and consistency. Saying a product is
reliability goal necessary for the leadership it provides an
                                                                     reliable generally means it works as expected over time. When
organization when designing a new product.
                                                                     I say my car is reliable, I may mean it starts every morning, on
     The reliability goal statement includes four elements:
                                                                     demand.
function, environment, probability of success, and duration.
                                                                          These are not useful definitions even if the sentiment is
The function definition provides one means to define failure
                                                                     correct for a product design engineering team. One way to
conditions. The environment includes elements such as
                                                                     define reliability that is more useful for engineers is
weather and elements related to use frequency.
                                                                          “The probability that an item will perform a required
     The probability of success and duration should always be
                                                                     function without failure under stated conditions for a stated
stated in a couplet. Setting more than one probability and
                                                                     period of time.” [1]
duration couplet further defines reliability over the expected
                                                                          In this definition, we have four elements that need
lifespan of the product. And setting multiple couplets enables
                                                                     refinement to fit a particular „item‟. Each of the four elements
various focuses of the goal that concern different periods of
                                                                     may or may not be well defined for the item and they may or
time or constituents.
                                                                     may not be stated all in one place.
     Setting and stating a clear and complete reliability goal
                                                                          For the purpose of this paper, we will address the four
delineates the boundary between a reliable enough product
                                                                     elements as: Function, Environment, Probability of success,
and one that is not. The goal enables the design team to
                                                                     and Duration.
balance the myriad of other design considerations along with
                                                                          Creating a succinct reliability goal statement provides a
product reliability in a meaningful manner.
                                                                     means to clearly communicate the desired reliability or
                      1 INTRODUCTION                                 performance over time of the product. Rather than an implied,
                                                                     vague or scattered set of requirements or goals, create a single
      Nearly every product has a clear set of functional or
                                                                     statement with supporting information.
performance objectives, possibly a cost goal and often a time
                                                                          The reliability goal should be easy to understand and
to market deadline. Product reliability should be part of this
                                                                     promote the desired behavior and outcomes. As with any goal
initial set of criteria for product design and it should be very
                                                                     the normal guidelines apply. The goal should be specific,
clearly stated. All too often goals such as „as good as or better
                                                                     quantifiable and be met within a specific period of time. [2]
than the last product‟, or „5 year life‟, or „2-year warranty‟, is
                                                                          The goal setting process is a business process and should
all the design team receives as a reliability goal.
                                                                     reflect the interests and capabilities of the business,
      Stating a complete reliability goal includes the references
                                                                     technology and customer. The intent is to provide a realistic
to product function(s) and expected operating environment
                                                                     objective that can be achieved with a product that is profitable
and use profiles. It also includes stating the probability of
                                                                     for the business and meets or exceeds the customer‟s
survival over a time period. This probability and time couplet
                                                                     expectations. Profitable here may mean the product meets
may have multiple statements in order to consider early life
                                                                     business objectives, which may or may not include profit,
failure period, a warranty period, and a design life for the
                                                                     although profit is a common business objective.
product. Each period has specific and often different risks,
considerations and business impact.                                              3 FUNCTION AND ENVIRONMENT
      This paper explores the practical means to establish
                                                                          The first two elements of a reliability goal to explore are
product reliability goals. The use of field performance of past
                                                                     the function and environment. The first assists us in defining a
products, market positioning, cost of failures, technical
                                                                     failure, the second the expected set of external stresses or
capabilities, and engineering judgment all come to play when
                                                                     conditions. Both are necessary for a complete reliability goal
establishing the reliability goal. Setting a meaningful goal, that
                                                                     statement.
is measureable during product development, is often one of
the first steps necessary to create a reliable product.
3.1 Function                                                          Tests.[3] Another with a focus on the telecommunications
                                                                      industry equipment is the set of documents provided by the
     The function or functions of an item are essentially what
                                                                      European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI).[4]
the item is to do. For example, a passenger plane transports
                                                                            Rather than use rated limits or absolute maximum storage
passengers from one location to another, or, a pair of
                                                                      temperature expectations which would only apply to a very
sunglasses provides UV radiation eye protection from the sun.
                                                                      few situations and units, I recommend you use the 90 th
     The product may be very complex or relatively simple.
                                                                      percentile values for daily average temperature and daily
The product may include multiple functions or only one. Yet,
                                                                      average temperature range. The National Climatic Data Center
even with the sunglasses, ultraviolet protection is probably not
                                                                      [5] has available worldwide weather station daily data
the only function. Style, color, comfort, and other aspects of
                                                                      readings. Besides temperature there is dew point (related to
the glasses may be as or more important than UV protection.
                                                                      relative humidity) and rainfall, windspeed and similar
     For a reliability goal, select the primary or salient function
                                                                      information for each day at each of the thousands of weather
of the product and reference the remaining functions in other
                                                                      reporting stations from around the world. The database access
documents. While I was at Hewlett-Packard Company, I
                                                                      permits one to select a region or country set of stations.
noticed that many product development teams developed early
                                                                      Having years of daily or hourly weather data permits one to
in the design process a detailed Product Requirements
                                                                      use the actual distribution of the values or a specific percentile
Document (PRD), which included sufficient definition of all
                                                                      of the data, say the 90th percentile, which improves the
functions to deliver to the customer, often including color,
                                                                      accuracy of any consideration related to the weather.
weight, location of the logo, pages printed per minute in
                                                                            Depending on the products industry or use expectations,
various printing modes, etc. The PRD was often 50 pages or
                                                                      the use of standards or tabulated data may prove useful. If not,
more.
                                                                      then gathering readings from actual or similar products in use
     When setting a reliability goal, use the primary function
                                                                      would provide the necessary information to establish a
to communicate the purpose of the product. Keep it simple and
                                                                      complete set of environmental conditions.
clear. For products with a detailed PRD or similar document,
                                                                            The other element of environment is the use profile. How
provide a reference to the full set of expected functions.
                                                                      something is used as well as how often it is used may directly
3.2 Environment                                                       affectits reliability. A long haul international plane may have
                                                                      one or two flights per day, whereas, a local commuter plane
     The product has to work for the customer to be of use. It
                                                                      may experience a dozen flights per day. The difference in
also has to function where and when the customer is expecting
                                                                      stresses included the number of take offs and landings, maybe
the product to work. For example, a large passenger aircraft is
                                                                      altitude, and many other factors that detail the expected
expected to operate around the world, and function properly
                                                                      frequency and nature of use.
during taxi, take off, level flight and landing. Another example
                                                                            The use profile may also influence the types of failure
is sunglasses should function when exposed to full sun.
                                                                      mechanisms and related stresses. A bicycle used by a
     The weather (temperature, humidity, contaminants, etc.)
                                                                      professional during a major race, will likely have stresses
around the product constitutes part of the environment. The
                                                                      imparted by the rider that are significantly higher than by a
use profile is another element. The weather is a short way of
                                                                      recreational rider. The maintenance practices, hours of use per
stating the list of stresses that exist external to the product and
                                                                      day, and other conditions may be quite different also.
may impact the reliability of the product. If a product is
                                                                            It may be necessary to create different profiles and
expected to operate outdoors in all weather, then include
                                                                      associated environmental conditions. The aircraft example
condensation, rain, and hail as expected conditions.
                                                                      may include details related to long haul and commuter and
     The weather should include all stresses that the product is
                                                                      cargo uses for the same aircraft. Each type of use would have
exposed to during storage, transport, installation and use. And,
                                                                      slightly different expected frequency of use, loading
all stresses that related to an expected failure mechanism
                                                                      conditions, weather conditions, and possibly maintenance
should have sufficient information to permit characterization
                                                                      practices.
of the products performance when exposed to those stresses.
                                                                            The same considerations apply for the design of a bicycle.
For example, the sunglasses material should not deteriorate or
                                                                      A bicycle that is rarely maintained or used may be more prone
change color when exposed to sunlight. Knowing how much
                                                                      to corrosion related failure. The professional bike may have a
sunlight, expected spectrum and intensity, would assist in the
                                                                      higher probability for metal fatigue related failure.
design, evaluation of alternatives, and validation &
                                                                            Understanding and detailing the full set of environmental
verification testing.
                                                                      (weather and use) conditions provides the design team a clear
     The environmental set of conditions are not just weather,
                                                                      set of expectations. The weather and use permit the evaluation
it may include radiated emissions, power line anomalies,
                                                                      of materials and designs to function within the customers‟
insect or animal exposure, dust, or something as possibly
                                                                      world.
damaging as the interior of a purse or briefcase.
     One freely available standard that lists a wide range of                      4 PROBABILITY AND DURATION
environmental        conditions      is    the     MIL-STD-810G
                                                                         The probability and duration for a reliability goal
Environmental Engineering Considerations and Laboratory
                                                                      complete the goal statement. I recommend always pairing and
stating the two elements together to avoid any confusion.                 In practice, this line does not have to be straight. We may
Stating 98% probability of success over 2 years is easier to         want very few failures during the first month, a relatively low
understanding than stating only one of the following:                chance of failure over the warranty period, and a modest
              Two year life                                          failure rate out to the expected useful life of the product. The
              2% failure rate
     The first implies duration and leaves open the expected
number of units that would survive the two years without
failure. The second example, may apply to one year, one
month, one hour or some other duration. Neither is complete.
4.1 Probability
     There are a few ways to state the probability of success. I
like probability of success or reliability as its positive
(proportion not failing); it‟s easy to multiply with expected
number of shipping units to estimate the number of units still
operating over the related duration; and it is difficult to
misunderstand.
     Another way to state the probability term is to use the
probability of failure, which is the complement of the
probability of success, F(t) = 1 - R(t), where F(t) is the                Figure 1 CDF lot of example to assist goal setting
cumulative distribution function or probability of failure; and,
R(t) is the reliability function or the probability of success.
     Other ways to state the probability include annualized
failure rate (AFR) or mean time between failure (MTBF). I
don‟t recommend these as they assume the failure rate is
constant (which it often is not) and one must use the
exponential distribution when the failure rate is constant. The
R(t) or F(t) do not assume a particular distribution.
     Setting this number is a balance between the desire to
have no failures whatsoever, the cost, technology and
complexity of the product, and business profit or related
objectives. The „positioning‟ of the product as a high quality
and reliability product may or may not command a higher
price. This may depend on the marketing, competition, brand
perception and consumer acceptance. Some makes charge
more for their cars in part due to the brand perception of
reliability. Even if Yugo built a very reliable car it would have               Figure 2 CDF plot with multiple slopes
to overcome the brand perception and earn market acceptance.
     As a consumer I do not want my specific unit to fail and        next section discusses these and other duration periods.
as a reliability engineer I understand that there is a finite risk        Figure 2 shows three different slopes on the CDF plot that
that my unit will fail. If it fails quickly, I may return the        reflect the balance between all the elements related to
product and buy a competitor‟s product as a replacement. If it       probability of success.
fails after many years of service, I am likely to buy the same            In this example, figure 2, the reliability at 30 days is
brand or model. This implies a changing acceptance of failure        99.8%, and at one year is 98%, and at five years is greater than
over time.                                                           90%.
     To set an appropriate reliability goal, it may be necessary          Establishing the probability values is to some extent an
to establish multiple couplets of probability and duration for       exercise in trial and error. Understanding the customer
the product. The various probabilities of success define the         expectations may provide one view, which has to balance with
line between the decreasing reliability over time, and               the cost of the solution and available technology. One option
thecustomers‟ acceptance of a failure. One way to represent          to bracket the probability values is to review past products
this goal is to draw a line on a cumulative distribution (CDF)       field reliability performance, or estimate the reliability of
plot (assuming a particular distribution, in this case Weibull),     similar products in the field. Another method is to conduct
see figure 1.                                                        reliability analysis and testing on competitor products. The
     At any point in time, the plot in figure 1 provides the         intent is to find an acceptable level of product reliability for
probability of failure (one minus the probability of success).       the customer and the producer.
For example, at 30 days the reliability is 99.7%, and at one
year it is 97%, and at five years is less than 90%.
4.2 Duration                                                             Useful life is the period of time the product is expected to
                                                                    function or operate for the customer. It is often well beyond
     The discussion in section 4.1 alluded to a few types of
                                                                    the warranty period. While there isn‟t an obligation to repair
durations: early life, warranty period, and useful life. In
                                                                    or replace the product if it fails, there may be an impact to
addition, durations such as economical life, mission time, and
                                                                    repeat sales, to sales of other products offered by the
many others may apply. In this paper we will explore firs three
                                                                    company, or to the purchase of consumables associated with
mentioned. The discussion for the establishment of each may
                                                                    the product. The last example is illustrated well by inkjet
apply directly to many other types of durations.
                                                                    printers, which have a long expected useful life, such that the
     Early life failures (ELF), also called infant mortality, is
                                                                    consumer will continue to purchase inkjet cartridges. The first
defined by the producer to reflect the time period over which
                                                                    two examples are related to brand image and the purchase
product failures are included in a different group for analysis
                                                                    decision based on perception of product reliability.
and tracking. The reasons for doing this include, detection of
                                                                         The useful life may have technology limitations, may
supply chain or assembly issues, detection of shipping or
                                                                    have industry or market expectations (possibly also contract
installation issues, and to provide focus on the failures that
                                                                    obligations), or it may have practical business limitations.
occurred very early in the expected life of the unit. Another
                                                                    Consider the washing machines built in the 1950‟s. They were
reason is customers with ELF may reduce the brand‟s
                                                                    cast iron, very simple in design and very durable. They also
reliability image, may complain more to potential customers,
                                                                    washed clothes just fine. Some are probably still in service, as
and may have their reliability expectation eroded.
                                                                    is the one in my grandparents‟ home. Today‟s machines are
     The ELF period is variable and is often in the range from
                                                                    lighter (less transport costs), feature rich (marketing?), and
installation or first use, up to 3 months of use by the customer.
                                                                    tend to last about 10 to 12 years. One reason for this reduction
Depending on the product and market the actual period of time
                                                                    in useful life is the business desire to have customers buy
may or may not start with first use, as it may be difficult to
                                                                    another washing machine every 10 to 15 years. “Let‟s not
actually determine. Instead starting the clock with shipment
                                                                    make it too reliable,” might be heard in discussions of such
date may serve as surrogate.
                                                                    product lines.
     The intention is to identify those failures that occur very
                                                                         The useful life duration is the reliability goal elements
early. The focus on these helps to isolate and resolve issues
                                                                    that address how long the product should last. The useful life
quickly. Also, the ELFs tend to have root causes unrelated to
                                                                    is a major concern for the selection of materials and
wear out or end of useful life type failure mechanisms. Setting
                                                                    components, and determining if and how to implement repairs.
the duration is local policy and enough duration to include at
least a month of use by the customer.
     Warranty period is the length of time the manufacturer is                               5 EXAMPLE
financially responsible to repair or replace a faulty unit. It is
                                                                         Consider a bicycle as a product under development. It
beyond the scope of this paper to discuss the types of
                                                                    needs to have a clear reliability goal established. Even without
warranties, so we will only focus on the broad definition.
                                                                    mentioning reliability, some questions may arise from the
     As warranty is an expense to the company it is of
                                                                    design team: What type of bicycle? Intended use? Size and
financial interest. Warranty Week [6] reports publicly traded
                                                                    weight options? Custom accessories or fittings for customer
companies spend roughly 2 to 4% of net revenue on warranty
                                                                    selected accessories? Color? And many more.
claims. Therefore, one way to establish a warranty period is to
                                                                         These natural questions begin to develop the function and
determine the products‟ expected failure rate and associated
                                                                    environmental elements of a reliability goal. Let‟s say the new
cost of warranty over various time periods. Then set the
                                                                    product is to be a road bike suitable for the amateur triathlete.
warranty such that the warranty expense is reasonable.
                                                                    The full list of specifications for the model may evolve into a
     In reality the above financial concern is balanced by
                                                                    complete list of specifications called a product requirements
marketing, customer expectations and in some cases local
                                                                    document. Succinctly let‟s say the function is a triathlon road
laws. If the current market expects a 1-year warranty, offering
                                                                    bicycle.
a shorter warranty period may signal an inferior product.
                                                                         The environment may need further refinement. Is the bike
Whereas, offering a longer warranty may indicate a better
                                                                    to be available only in certain markets? What is the price point
product or one worth „taking a chance on‟ as it is „under
                                                                    and expected level of riders? Will it be maintained by a
warranty‟. There are no hard and fast rules for setting a
                                                                    professional staff or by the customer only? How many miles
warranty period and often is already established for the market
                                                                    and over what terrain is expected?
the product enters.
                                                                         The answers to these environmental questions may
     Setting the warranty period as one of the durations
                                                                    initially take the form of just an outline. And, later evolve to
permits the entire organization to understand the financial
                                                                    include temperature distributions, miles per day distributions,
impact of product reliability on the business bottom line. One
                                                                    maintenance frequency expectations, torque loading
way to discuss warranty within the company is to calculate the
                                                                    distributions, and more. To summarize for the goal, we can
warranty cost per unit shipped. This has the advantage of
                                                                    say the bike is expected to be used by amateur triathletes in
placing warranty in the same units as most of the products bill
                                                                    Olympic to Ironman distance races, and including their
of materials list of component costs.
                                                                    training rides.
Consider the probability of success and duration as              6.1 Market
couplets. The distributors and resellers are concerned with
                                                                          Part of marketing a product includes setting expectations
ELF within 1 month of purchase. Discussions with resellers
                                                                      for customers concerning product reliability. This may be
and with customers and review of customer satisfaction
                                                                      done with clear reliability claims or comparisons to competitor
surveys for the product line and industry suggest keeping the
                                                                      products.
ELF to less than 1% over the first month is not damaging to
                                                                          Often the marketing team is the voice of the next
the brand‟s reputation nor significantly impact brand future
                                                                      customer. Especially for new products or for new markets, the
sales. Therefore, the first couplet is stated as 99% probability
                                                                      marketing team‟s input is essential for a well-positioned
of success over first month of ownership.
                                                                      product within that marketplace.
     The industry‟s warranty period is commonly one year for
parts and workmanship (doesn't cover normal use or                    6.2 Reliable Enough
accidents). A brief discussion with senior management reveals
                                                                           Using more expensive materials and technologies may
there is not a desire to differentiate on reliability with this
                                                                      provide a more robust and reliable product. The washing
product so the one-year warranty is fine. A review of similar
                                                                      machine example illustrates the possibility of creating a
models suggests that a 1.75% failure rate over a year is the
                                                                      product that lasts an undesirably long time.
company‟s average for the past few models of triathlon bikes.
                                                                           It may be possible to create a cell phone that would last
Also, a discussion with the project manager suggests the
                                                                      for 20 years without failure. Given the expectation of new
weight of the bike is the primary design goal, and lowering
                                                                      features enticing the customer to buy a new phone every two
warranty cost is a major concern. Therefore, the second
                                                                      years negates the necessity or desire for a 20-year phone.
couplet may be stated as 98.25% probability of success over
                                                                           Create the goal that is in line with customer and market
the one-year warranty period.
                                                                      expectations, balanced with cost and actual market drivers for
     The third of the couplets addresses the useful life of the
                                                                      purchase. If reliability is not the most important factor for
bicycle. A serious amateur may replace their bike every year,
                                                                      purchase, it should not be the primary concern or constraint
while others may use the same equipment for many years. A
                                                                      for the design team.
(hypothetical) survey conducted at regional and national
triathlon events found most bikes are 3 years old or newer,           6.3 Safety
while a few are as much as 10 years old. Let‟s say for this
                                                                           Product reliability and safety are related. One of the
paper that 90% of triathletes are riding bikes less than 5 years
                                                                      considerations in setting a reliability goal concerning safety is
old. Therefore, a reasonable useful life probability/duration
                                                                      considering how the product fails. If it has a reasonable
couplet is set as 95% probability of success over 5 years.
                                                                      possibility of unavoidably failing in an unsafe manner (i.e.
     In summary, we can state a reliability goal with all four
                                                                      ignition) then one option is to reduce the chance of failure.
elements included and three probability of success (reliability)
                                                                           The increase in reliability to avoid un-safe failure modes
and duration couplets.
                                                                      may be feasible, yet it may preclude features, cost or other
     Design and build a triathlon road bicycle intended for use
                                                                      objectives. Of course it is preferred to only permit product
in training and races for triathlons ranging from Olympic to
                                                                      failures into a safe mode. Another possibility is to add fail-safe
Ironman distances, with 99% reliability over the first month,
                                                                      features to the product to mitigate the harm possibility caused
with 98.25% reliability over the one-year, and, with 95%
                                                                      by un-safe failure modes.
reliability over the 5 years. Details for product specifications
and functions are in the PRD and environmental and use                6.4 Customer Expectations
details are in the Environment document.
                                                                           Product failures, degraded performance, fracture, bugs,
                     6 CONSIDERATIONS                                 and related are part of the risk we encounter with every
                                                                      product we employ. Failures happen.
     A goal statement is a balance between the desired and the
                                                                           The expectation is not for a totally failure free experience
possible. A well-crafted goal will provide sufficient
                                                                      with every product, yet each person does have an internal
information and guidance to enable decision-making during
                                                                      gauge for what is acceptable. Understanding you customer
the development process that leads to attainment of the goal. It
                                                                      expectations related to reliability is part customer satisfaction,
must be measureable, which is sometimes difficult for
                                                                      part brand loyalty, part market share and part the nature of
reliability. A well-crafted goal also is clear, concise and easily
                                                                      your customers (i.e. early adopters may have more tolerance
understood.The balance for a reliability goal is between „never
                                                                      for failure).A consideration for the reliability goal is the
fails‟ and „fails too often or early‟.
                                                                      perception of customer acceptance of the products reliability.
     Each consideration or factor that impacts the setting of the
goal should be part of the discussion. The lack of any                6.5 Technology and Materials
reliability goal permits everyone in the organization to
                                                                           Consider, for example, alow density poly(ethylene) melts
prioritize product reliability according to their local objectives.
                                                                      at a relatively low temperature (98-115°C) compared to Nylon
Setting a goal that is tied to the organizations strategy,
                                                                      66 (255-265°C), thus enabling the correct choice of material
includes all stakeholders and is clearly stated enables the
                                                                      based on temperature when compared to use temperature. Of
entire organization to strive toward the same objective.
course, polymer selection as with all materials may consider                 Considerations and Laboratory Tests, US Department of
many different factors. For reliability, the consideration is the            Defense, 31 October 2008.
amount of margin the materials and technologies have beyond             4.   ETSI En 300 119 series Environmental Engineering (EE):
the expected use stresses.                                                   Environmental conditions and environmental tests for
     Sometimes there are relatively obvious and low cost                     telecommunications equipment; Part 1-0: Classifications
improvements, sometimes there are no choices. Adjust the                     of environmental conditions; Introduction – and
reliability goal to accommodate any reliability limitations                  associated documents, freely available at www.etsi.org,
related to technology or a material expected within the product              visited July 29th, 2012.
helps to communicate the priority reliability has in this area.         5.   National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of
                                                                             Commerce,           as    of     July      6,     2012,
                                                                             http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/cdoselect.cmd?dataseta
6.6 Value
                                                                             bby=GSOD&countryabby=&georegionabby=
     The final judge of a product value is the customer or end          6.   Eric      Arnum,       Warranty    Week       newsletter,
user. If the product provides sufficient value (benefits                     www.warrantyweek.com, visited on July 30th, 2012.
outweigh costs) then the product is successful. This judgment           7.   Quote attributed to Charles Coonradt at Chatsworth
is always in context of other possible solutions. Also, product              Consulting Group blog, visited on July 31 st, 2012,
reliability may provide a major element of the value, or it may              http://chatsworthconsulting.com/2011/06/20/want-more-
not be a consideration. The way customers perceive value is a                of-it-measure-it/
major influence on product reliability goal setting. If we
                                                                                               BIOGRAPHIES
understand the value placed on product reliability by those
purchasing the product we have a better opportunity to meet or          Fred Schenkelberg
exceed their expectations.                                              15466 Los Gatos Blvd #109-371
     Another value to consider is the impact a reliability goal         Los Gatos, CA, 95032, USA
and it‟s measurement has on the design process. “You have to
                                                                        e-mail: fms@opsalacarte.com
measure what you want more of.” Charles Coonradt [7] The
simple idea is to clearly communicate what you want from the            Fred Schenkelberg is a reliability engineering and
organization. If reliability is not included or not clear, then it is   management consultant with Ops A La Carte, LLC, with areas
possibly considered not important. Setting and achieving a              of focus including reliability engineering management training
goal also enables the entire organization to plan appropriately         and accelerated life testing. Previously, he co-founded and
for warranty accruals, manufacturing capacity, spare stocking,          built the HP corporate reliability program, including
etc. Guessing the reliability objectives can cause expensive            consulting on a broad range of HP products. He is a lecturer
mistakes in these areas.                                                with the University of Maryland teaching a graduate level
                                                                        course on reliability engineering management. He earned a
                          REFERENCES                                    Master of Science degree in statistics at Stanford University in
                                                                        1996. He earned hisbachelor‟s degrees in Physics at the
1.   Patrick D. T. O‟Connor and Andre Kleyner, Practical                United State Military Academy in 1983. Fredis the immediate
     Reliability Engineering, 5th Edition, Chichester, Wiley,           Past-Chair of the American Society of Quality Reliability
     2012, p 1.                                                         Division, active with IEEE and IEC reliability standards
2.   Joseph M. Juran and A. Blanton Godfrey, Juran‟s Quality            development teams. Fred is also the founder of the No MTBF
     Handbook, 5th Edition, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1999, p              movement and website nomtbf.com. He is a Senior Member of
     13.9.                                                              ASQ and IEEE. He is an ASQ Certified Quality and
3.   MIL-STD-810G,          Environmental        Engineering            Reliability Engineer.

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RAMS 2013 Establishing Product Reliability Goals

  • 1. Establishing Product Reliability Goals Fred Schenkelberg, Ops A La Carte, LLC Key Words: reliability, specification, goal, process SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS 2 A RELIABILITY GOAL The way we communicate goals directly impacts the The common understanding of „reliable‟ involves achievement of the goal. Creating and succinctly stating a concepts like trust and consistency. Saying a product is reliability goal necessary for the leadership it provides an reliable generally means it works as expected over time. When organization when designing a new product. I say my car is reliable, I may mean it starts every morning, on The reliability goal statement includes four elements: demand. function, environment, probability of success, and duration. These are not useful definitions even if the sentiment is The function definition provides one means to define failure correct for a product design engineering team. One way to conditions. The environment includes elements such as define reliability that is more useful for engineers is weather and elements related to use frequency. “The probability that an item will perform a required The probability of success and duration should always be function without failure under stated conditions for a stated stated in a couplet. Setting more than one probability and period of time.” [1] duration couplet further defines reliability over the expected In this definition, we have four elements that need lifespan of the product. And setting multiple couplets enables refinement to fit a particular „item‟. Each of the four elements various focuses of the goal that concern different periods of may or may not be well defined for the item and they may or time or constituents. may not be stated all in one place. Setting and stating a clear and complete reliability goal For the purpose of this paper, we will address the four delineates the boundary between a reliable enough product elements as: Function, Environment, Probability of success, and one that is not. The goal enables the design team to and Duration. balance the myriad of other design considerations along with Creating a succinct reliability goal statement provides a product reliability in a meaningful manner. means to clearly communicate the desired reliability or 1 INTRODUCTION performance over time of the product. Rather than an implied, vague or scattered set of requirements or goals, create a single Nearly every product has a clear set of functional or statement with supporting information. performance objectives, possibly a cost goal and often a time The reliability goal should be easy to understand and to market deadline. Product reliability should be part of this promote the desired behavior and outcomes. As with any goal initial set of criteria for product design and it should be very the normal guidelines apply. The goal should be specific, clearly stated. All too often goals such as „as good as or better quantifiable and be met within a specific period of time. [2] than the last product‟, or „5 year life‟, or „2-year warranty‟, is The goal setting process is a business process and should all the design team receives as a reliability goal. reflect the interests and capabilities of the business, Stating a complete reliability goal includes the references technology and customer. The intent is to provide a realistic to product function(s) and expected operating environment objective that can be achieved with a product that is profitable and use profiles. It also includes stating the probability of for the business and meets or exceeds the customer‟s survival over a time period. This probability and time couplet expectations. Profitable here may mean the product meets may have multiple statements in order to consider early life business objectives, which may or may not include profit, failure period, a warranty period, and a design life for the although profit is a common business objective. product. Each period has specific and often different risks, considerations and business impact. 3 FUNCTION AND ENVIRONMENT This paper explores the practical means to establish The first two elements of a reliability goal to explore are product reliability goals. The use of field performance of past the function and environment. The first assists us in defining a products, market positioning, cost of failures, technical failure, the second the expected set of external stresses or capabilities, and engineering judgment all come to play when conditions. Both are necessary for a complete reliability goal establishing the reliability goal. Setting a meaningful goal, that statement. is measureable during product development, is often one of the first steps necessary to create a reliable product.
  • 2. 3.1 Function Tests.[3] Another with a focus on the telecommunications industry equipment is the set of documents provided by the The function or functions of an item are essentially what European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI).[4] the item is to do. For example, a passenger plane transports Rather than use rated limits or absolute maximum storage passengers from one location to another, or, a pair of temperature expectations which would only apply to a very sunglasses provides UV radiation eye protection from the sun. few situations and units, I recommend you use the 90 th The product may be very complex or relatively simple. percentile values for daily average temperature and daily The product may include multiple functions or only one. Yet, average temperature range. The National Climatic Data Center even with the sunglasses, ultraviolet protection is probably not [5] has available worldwide weather station daily data the only function. Style, color, comfort, and other aspects of readings. Besides temperature there is dew point (related to the glasses may be as or more important than UV protection. relative humidity) and rainfall, windspeed and similar For a reliability goal, select the primary or salient function information for each day at each of the thousands of weather of the product and reference the remaining functions in other reporting stations from around the world. The database access documents. While I was at Hewlett-Packard Company, I permits one to select a region or country set of stations. noticed that many product development teams developed early Having years of daily or hourly weather data permits one to in the design process a detailed Product Requirements use the actual distribution of the values or a specific percentile Document (PRD), which included sufficient definition of all of the data, say the 90th percentile, which improves the functions to deliver to the customer, often including color, accuracy of any consideration related to the weather. weight, location of the logo, pages printed per minute in Depending on the products industry or use expectations, various printing modes, etc. The PRD was often 50 pages or the use of standards or tabulated data may prove useful. If not, more. then gathering readings from actual or similar products in use When setting a reliability goal, use the primary function would provide the necessary information to establish a to communicate the purpose of the product. Keep it simple and complete set of environmental conditions. clear. For products with a detailed PRD or similar document, The other element of environment is the use profile. How provide a reference to the full set of expected functions. something is used as well as how often it is used may directly 3.2 Environment affectits reliability. A long haul international plane may have one or two flights per day, whereas, a local commuter plane The product has to work for the customer to be of use. It may experience a dozen flights per day. The difference in also has to function where and when the customer is expecting stresses included the number of take offs and landings, maybe the product to work. For example, a large passenger aircraft is altitude, and many other factors that detail the expected expected to operate around the world, and function properly frequency and nature of use. during taxi, take off, level flight and landing. Another example The use profile may also influence the types of failure is sunglasses should function when exposed to full sun. mechanisms and related stresses. A bicycle used by a The weather (temperature, humidity, contaminants, etc.) professional during a major race, will likely have stresses around the product constitutes part of the environment. The imparted by the rider that are significantly higher than by a use profile is another element. The weather is a short way of recreational rider. The maintenance practices, hours of use per stating the list of stresses that exist external to the product and day, and other conditions may be quite different also. may impact the reliability of the product. If a product is It may be necessary to create different profiles and expected to operate outdoors in all weather, then include associated environmental conditions. The aircraft example condensation, rain, and hail as expected conditions. may include details related to long haul and commuter and The weather should include all stresses that the product is cargo uses for the same aircraft. Each type of use would have exposed to during storage, transport, installation and use. And, slightly different expected frequency of use, loading all stresses that related to an expected failure mechanism conditions, weather conditions, and possibly maintenance should have sufficient information to permit characterization practices. of the products performance when exposed to those stresses. The same considerations apply for the design of a bicycle. For example, the sunglasses material should not deteriorate or A bicycle that is rarely maintained or used may be more prone change color when exposed to sunlight. Knowing how much to corrosion related failure. The professional bike may have a sunlight, expected spectrum and intensity, would assist in the higher probability for metal fatigue related failure. design, evaluation of alternatives, and validation & Understanding and detailing the full set of environmental verification testing. (weather and use) conditions provides the design team a clear The environmental set of conditions are not just weather, set of expectations. The weather and use permit the evaluation it may include radiated emissions, power line anomalies, of materials and designs to function within the customers‟ insect or animal exposure, dust, or something as possibly world. damaging as the interior of a purse or briefcase. One freely available standard that lists a wide range of 4 PROBABILITY AND DURATION environmental conditions is the MIL-STD-810G The probability and duration for a reliability goal Environmental Engineering Considerations and Laboratory complete the goal statement. I recommend always pairing and
  • 3. stating the two elements together to avoid any confusion. In practice, this line does not have to be straight. We may Stating 98% probability of success over 2 years is easier to want very few failures during the first month, a relatively low understanding than stating only one of the following: chance of failure over the warranty period, and a modest Two year life failure rate out to the expected useful life of the product. The 2% failure rate The first implies duration and leaves open the expected number of units that would survive the two years without failure. The second example, may apply to one year, one month, one hour or some other duration. Neither is complete. 4.1 Probability There are a few ways to state the probability of success. I like probability of success or reliability as its positive (proportion not failing); it‟s easy to multiply with expected number of shipping units to estimate the number of units still operating over the related duration; and it is difficult to misunderstand. Another way to state the probability term is to use the probability of failure, which is the complement of the probability of success, F(t) = 1 - R(t), where F(t) is the Figure 1 CDF lot of example to assist goal setting cumulative distribution function or probability of failure; and, R(t) is the reliability function or the probability of success. Other ways to state the probability include annualized failure rate (AFR) or mean time between failure (MTBF). I don‟t recommend these as they assume the failure rate is constant (which it often is not) and one must use the exponential distribution when the failure rate is constant. The R(t) or F(t) do not assume a particular distribution. Setting this number is a balance between the desire to have no failures whatsoever, the cost, technology and complexity of the product, and business profit or related objectives. The „positioning‟ of the product as a high quality and reliability product may or may not command a higher price. This may depend on the marketing, competition, brand perception and consumer acceptance. Some makes charge more for their cars in part due to the brand perception of reliability. Even if Yugo built a very reliable car it would have Figure 2 CDF plot with multiple slopes to overcome the brand perception and earn market acceptance. As a consumer I do not want my specific unit to fail and next section discusses these and other duration periods. as a reliability engineer I understand that there is a finite risk Figure 2 shows three different slopes on the CDF plot that that my unit will fail. If it fails quickly, I may return the reflect the balance between all the elements related to product and buy a competitor‟s product as a replacement. If it probability of success. fails after many years of service, I am likely to buy the same In this example, figure 2, the reliability at 30 days is brand or model. This implies a changing acceptance of failure 99.8%, and at one year is 98%, and at five years is greater than over time. 90%. To set an appropriate reliability goal, it may be necessary Establishing the probability values is to some extent an to establish multiple couplets of probability and duration for exercise in trial and error. Understanding the customer the product. The various probabilities of success define the expectations may provide one view, which has to balance with line between the decreasing reliability over time, and the cost of the solution and available technology. One option thecustomers‟ acceptance of a failure. One way to represent to bracket the probability values is to review past products this goal is to draw a line on a cumulative distribution (CDF) field reliability performance, or estimate the reliability of plot (assuming a particular distribution, in this case Weibull), similar products in the field. Another method is to conduct see figure 1. reliability analysis and testing on competitor products. The At any point in time, the plot in figure 1 provides the intent is to find an acceptable level of product reliability for probability of failure (one minus the probability of success). the customer and the producer. For example, at 30 days the reliability is 99.7%, and at one year it is 97%, and at five years is less than 90%.
  • 4. 4.2 Duration Useful life is the period of time the product is expected to function or operate for the customer. It is often well beyond The discussion in section 4.1 alluded to a few types of the warranty period. While there isn‟t an obligation to repair durations: early life, warranty period, and useful life. In or replace the product if it fails, there may be an impact to addition, durations such as economical life, mission time, and repeat sales, to sales of other products offered by the many others may apply. In this paper we will explore firs three company, or to the purchase of consumables associated with mentioned. The discussion for the establishment of each may the product. The last example is illustrated well by inkjet apply directly to many other types of durations. printers, which have a long expected useful life, such that the Early life failures (ELF), also called infant mortality, is consumer will continue to purchase inkjet cartridges. The first defined by the producer to reflect the time period over which two examples are related to brand image and the purchase product failures are included in a different group for analysis decision based on perception of product reliability. and tracking. The reasons for doing this include, detection of The useful life may have technology limitations, may supply chain or assembly issues, detection of shipping or have industry or market expectations (possibly also contract installation issues, and to provide focus on the failures that obligations), or it may have practical business limitations. occurred very early in the expected life of the unit. Another Consider the washing machines built in the 1950‟s. They were reason is customers with ELF may reduce the brand‟s cast iron, very simple in design and very durable. They also reliability image, may complain more to potential customers, washed clothes just fine. Some are probably still in service, as and may have their reliability expectation eroded. is the one in my grandparents‟ home. Today‟s machines are The ELF period is variable and is often in the range from lighter (less transport costs), feature rich (marketing?), and installation or first use, up to 3 months of use by the customer. tend to last about 10 to 12 years. One reason for this reduction Depending on the product and market the actual period of time in useful life is the business desire to have customers buy may or may not start with first use, as it may be difficult to another washing machine every 10 to 15 years. “Let‟s not actually determine. Instead starting the clock with shipment make it too reliable,” might be heard in discussions of such date may serve as surrogate. product lines. The intention is to identify those failures that occur very The useful life duration is the reliability goal elements early. The focus on these helps to isolate and resolve issues that address how long the product should last. The useful life quickly. Also, the ELFs tend to have root causes unrelated to is a major concern for the selection of materials and wear out or end of useful life type failure mechanisms. Setting components, and determining if and how to implement repairs. the duration is local policy and enough duration to include at least a month of use by the customer. Warranty period is the length of time the manufacturer is 5 EXAMPLE financially responsible to repair or replace a faulty unit. It is Consider a bicycle as a product under development. It beyond the scope of this paper to discuss the types of needs to have a clear reliability goal established. Even without warranties, so we will only focus on the broad definition. mentioning reliability, some questions may arise from the As warranty is an expense to the company it is of design team: What type of bicycle? Intended use? Size and financial interest. Warranty Week [6] reports publicly traded weight options? Custom accessories or fittings for customer companies spend roughly 2 to 4% of net revenue on warranty selected accessories? Color? And many more. claims. Therefore, one way to establish a warranty period is to These natural questions begin to develop the function and determine the products‟ expected failure rate and associated environmental elements of a reliability goal. Let‟s say the new cost of warranty over various time periods. Then set the product is to be a road bike suitable for the amateur triathlete. warranty such that the warranty expense is reasonable. The full list of specifications for the model may evolve into a In reality the above financial concern is balanced by complete list of specifications called a product requirements marketing, customer expectations and in some cases local document. Succinctly let‟s say the function is a triathlon road laws. If the current market expects a 1-year warranty, offering bicycle. a shorter warranty period may signal an inferior product. The environment may need further refinement. Is the bike Whereas, offering a longer warranty may indicate a better to be available only in certain markets? What is the price point product or one worth „taking a chance on‟ as it is „under and expected level of riders? Will it be maintained by a warranty‟. There are no hard and fast rules for setting a professional staff or by the customer only? How many miles warranty period and often is already established for the market and over what terrain is expected? the product enters. The answers to these environmental questions may Setting the warranty period as one of the durations initially take the form of just an outline. And, later evolve to permits the entire organization to understand the financial include temperature distributions, miles per day distributions, impact of product reliability on the business bottom line. One maintenance frequency expectations, torque loading way to discuss warranty within the company is to calculate the distributions, and more. To summarize for the goal, we can warranty cost per unit shipped. This has the advantage of say the bike is expected to be used by amateur triathletes in placing warranty in the same units as most of the products bill Olympic to Ironman distance races, and including their of materials list of component costs. training rides.
  • 5. Consider the probability of success and duration as 6.1 Market couplets. The distributors and resellers are concerned with Part of marketing a product includes setting expectations ELF within 1 month of purchase. Discussions with resellers for customers concerning product reliability. This may be and with customers and review of customer satisfaction done with clear reliability claims or comparisons to competitor surveys for the product line and industry suggest keeping the products. ELF to less than 1% over the first month is not damaging to Often the marketing team is the voice of the next the brand‟s reputation nor significantly impact brand future customer. Especially for new products or for new markets, the sales. Therefore, the first couplet is stated as 99% probability marketing team‟s input is essential for a well-positioned of success over first month of ownership. product within that marketplace. The industry‟s warranty period is commonly one year for parts and workmanship (doesn't cover normal use or 6.2 Reliable Enough accidents). A brief discussion with senior management reveals Using more expensive materials and technologies may there is not a desire to differentiate on reliability with this provide a more robust and reliable product. The washing product so the one-year warranty is fine. A review of similar machine example illustrates the possibility of creating a models suggests that a 1.75% failure rate over a year is the product that lasts an undesirably long time. company‟s average for the past few models of triathlon bikes. It may be possible to create a cell phone that would last Also, a discussion with the project manager suggests the for 20 years without failure. Given the expectation of new weight of the bike is the primary design goal, and lowering features enticing the customer to buy a new phone every two warranty cost is a major concern. Therefore, the second years negates the necessity or desire for a 20-year phone. couplet may be stated as 98.25% probability of success over Create the goal that is in line with customer and market the one-year warranty period. expectations, balanced with cost and actual market drivers for The third of the couplets addresses the useful life of the purchase. If reliability is not the most important factor for bicycle. A serious amateur may replace their bike every year, purchase, it should not be the primary concern or constraint while others may use the same equipment for many years. A for the design team. (hypothetical) survey conducted at regional and national triathlon events found most bikes are 3 years old or newer, 6.3 Safety while a few are as much as 10 years old. Let‟s say for this Product reliability and safety are related. One of the paper that 90% of triathletes are riding bikes less than 5 years considerations in setting a reliability goal concerning safety is old. Therefore, a reasonable useful life probability/duration considering how the product fails. If it has a reasonable couplet is set as 95% probability of success over 5 years. possibility of unavoidably failing in an unsafe manner (i.e. In summary, we can state a reliability goal with all four ignition) then one option is to reduce the chance of failure. elements included and three probability of success (reliability) The increase in reliability to avoid un-safe failure modes and duration couplets. may be feasible, yet it may preclude features, cost or other Design and build a triathlon road bicycle intended for use objectives. Of course it is preferred to only permit product in training and races for triathlons ranging from Olympic to failures into a safe mode. Another possibility is to add fail-safe Ironman distances, with 99% reliability over the first month, features to the product to mitigate the harm possibility caused with 98.25% reliability over the one-year, and, with 95% by un-safe failure modes. reliability over the 5 years. Details for product specifications and functions are in the PRD and environmental and use 6.4 Customer Expectations details are in the Environment document. Product failures, degraded performance, fracture, bugs, 6 CONSIDERATIONS and related are part of the risk we encounter with every product we employ. Failures happen. A goal statement is a balance between the desired and the The expectation is not for a totally failure free experience possible. A well-crafted goal will provide sufficient with every product, yet each person does have an internal information and guidance to enable decision-making during gauge for what is acceptable. Understanding you customer the development process that leads to attainment of the goal. It expectations related to reliability is part customer satisfaction, must be measureable, which is sometimes difficult for part brand loyalty, part market share and part the nature of reliability. A well-crafted goal also is clear, concise and easily your customers (i.e. early adopters may have more tolerance understood.The balance for a reliability goal is between „never for failure).A consideration for the reliability goal is the fails‟ and „fails too often or early‟. perception of customer acceptance of the products reliability. Each consideration or factor that impacts the setting of the goal should be part of the discussion. The lack of any 6.5 Technology and Materials reliability goal permits everyone in the organization to Consider, for example, alow density poly(ethylene) melts prioritize product reliability according to their local objectives. at a relatively low temperature (98-115°C) compared to Nylon Setting a goal that is tied to the organizations strategy, 66 (255-265°C), thus enabling the correct choice of material includes all stakeholders and is clearly stated enables the based on temperature when compared to use temperature. Of entire organization to strive toward the same objective.
  • 6. course, polymer selection as with all materials may consider Considerations and Laboratory Tests, US Department of many different factors. For reliability, the consideration is the Defense, 31 October 2008. amount of margin the materials and technologies have beyond 4. ETSI En 300 119 series Environmental Engineering (EE): the expected use stresses. Environmental conditions and environmental tests for Sometimes there are relatively obvious and low cost telecommunications equipment; Part 1-0: Classifications improvements, sometimes there are no choices. Adjust the of environmental conditions; Introduction – and reliability goal to accommodate any reliability limitations associated documents, freely available at www.etsi.org, related to technology or a material expected within the product visited July 29th, 2012. helps to communicate the priority reliability has in this area. 5. National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, as of July 6, 2012, http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/cdoselect.cmd?dataseta 6.6 Value bby=GSOD&countryabby=&georegionabby= The final judge of a product value is the customer or end 6. Eric Arnum, Warranty Week newsletter, user. If the product provides sufficient value (benefits www.warrantyweek.com, visited on July 30th, 2012. outweigh costs) then the product is successful. This judgment 7. Quote attributed to Charles Coonradt at Chatsworth is always in context of other possible solutions. Also, product Consulting Group blog, visited on July 31 st, 2012, reliability may provide a major element of the value, or it may http://chatsworthconsulting.com/2011/06/20/want-more- not be a consideration. The way customers perceive value is a of-it-measure-it/ major influence on product reliability goal setting. If we BIOGRAPHIES understand the value placed on product reliability by those purchasing the product we have a better opportunity to meet or Fred Schenkelberg exceed their expectations. 15466 Los Gatos Blvd #109-371 Another value to consider is the impact a reliability goal Los Gatos, CA, 95032, USA and it‟s measurement has on the design process. “You have to e-mail: fms@opsalacarte.com measure what you want more of.” Charles Coonradt [7] The simple idea is to clearly communicate what you want from the Fred Schenkelberg is a reliability engineering and organization. If reliability is not included or not clear, then it is management consultant with Ops A La Carte, LLC, with areas possibly considered not important. Setting and achieving a of focus including reliability engineering management training goal also enables the entire organization to plan appropriately and accelerated life testing. Previously, he co-founded and for warranty accruals, manufacturing capacity, spare stocking, built the HP corporate reliability program, including etc. Guessing the reliability objectives can cause expensive consulting on a broad range of HP products. He is a lecturer mistakes in these areas. with the University of Maryland teaching a graduate level course on reliability engineering management. He earned a REFERENCES Master of Science degree in statistics at Stanford University in 1996. He earned hisbachelor‟s degrees in Physics at the 1. Patrick D. T. O‟Connor and Andre Kleyner, Practical United State Military Academy in 1983. Fredis the immediate Reliability Engineering, 5th Edition, Chichester, Wiley, Past-Chair of the American Society of Quality Reliability 2012, p 1. Division, active with IEEE and IEC reliability standards 2. Joseph M. Juran and A. Blanton Godfrey, Juran‟s Quality development teams. Fred is also the founder of the No MTBF Handbook, 5th Edition, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1999, p movement and website nomtbf.com. He is a Senior Member of 13.9. ASQ and IEEE. He is an ASQ Certified Quality and 3. MIL-STD-810G, Environmental Engineering Reliability Engineer.