Investment in reliability program versus return – how to decide
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Paper presented at 2012 RAMS about basic methods to estimate the value of specific reliability activities
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Investment in reliability program versus return – how to decide
- 1. Investment in Reliability Program versus Return How to Decide Fred Schenkelberg, Consultant January 23rdthru 26th, 2012 RAMS Session 1D
- 2. Trade off analysis Cost Time to Market Functionality Reliability
- 3. Value
- 4. Avoiding lost sales and development expenses HALT & TIME TO MARKET
- 5. Situation • New Design – no history • Portable electronics • Expect drop damage • Holiday market • 98% reliability over 1 year of use
- 6. Current Plan Design verification testing Accelerated Life Test 2nd prototypes Historically 25% of time discover fatal flaw 30 day delay
- 7. Proposal HALT 40% chance of finding major fault 1st Prototypes
- 8. HALT Value Cost of HALT Chamber access, prototypes, technician time, and failure analysis $24k Value of HALT assume $500k/day lost sales 30 days - - $15m 40% x 25% x $15m = $1.5m
- 9. Lets explore how to estimate return on reliability investment MANY WAYS TO ESTIMATE VALUE
- 10. Ideas on estimating value Avoid field failure expense Save time
- 11. Yes No
- 12. What are your questions?