International Education Trends

Francisco Marmolejo 3/8/2012
fmarmole@email.arizona.edu

2 1 0 2 , 6 h cr a M Z A , n o s c u T

Francisco Marmolejo
Consortium for North American Higher Education Collaboration
The University of Arizona

“When I think about
the future… I become
scared of the present”

http://www.conahec.org
http://www.arizona.edu 1


…Implications for higher
education



International trends in higher education

Massification
Still asymetrical access / retention/ graduation
Increasing international student mobility
Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum
Quality assurance, accountability and qualification
frameworks
Financing higher education
The private providers’ revolution
The academic profession

The research environment
Information and communications technology



The demographic factor

2050
1999
1927
1800
9
6
2
1 billion people

Courtesy of Paul E. Lingenfelter



10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000 Millions
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250

http://www.beerkens.info/blog/atom.xml

…Geographic distribution




…Population distribution

The fastest population growth in world’s
history… and more unequal

256 %

140 %

2.5 %



¿Where are located Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Uganda,
Nigeria, Vietnam and the Democratic Republic of Congo?

World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050
RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050
1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4

2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2

3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7

4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7

5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8

6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5

7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6

8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1

9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0

10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DR Congo 151.6

11 France 41.8 MEXICO 98.9 MEXICO 140.2

12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4

13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7

14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7

15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5

16 MEXICO 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2
Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.



-

+



“La globalización ha traido consigo el
surgimiento de un riesgoso régimen
globalitario que ha provocado una
espectacular multinacionalización de
la economía y una aculturización”
IGNACIO RAMONET “Géopolitique du chaos” (1999)

Costos

Beneficios

http://conahec.org

Latin America and the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

East and Pacific Asia

North Africa and Middle East

South Asia

High Income Countries

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Source: Luis F. Lopez-Calva y N. Lusing
0: Equity of Total Income
1: Inequity of Total Income



Dominique Moisi.
Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)



More than ever more people are
having access to higher education …



Gross enrollment rate in Brazilian Higher
Education



Chile
Undergraduate Enrollment 1983-2009

Graduate Enrolllment 1983-2009

Source: Aliaga y col., SIES, Junio 210



Evolución de la Estructura de Edad de la Población en México

Edad Hombres Mujeres
100
2000 80
60
40
20
0
0
100
2020 80
60
40
20
0
0
2050 100
80
60
40
20
0
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Millones de Personas http://conahec.org



The demographic structure from a regional point of
view

Age
90-94

80-84

70-74

60-64

50-54

40-44
Canada
30-34

20-24
Mexico
10-14
USA
0-4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Millions of inhabitants
Sourcee: Jaime Parada, CONACYT

Growth in university-level qualifications
Approximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A
education in the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years) (2007)

2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's
50
%
45

40
35

30

25

20
15

10

5

0
Belgium

Turkey
Switzerland
United Kingdom

Luxembourg

Slovak Republic

Brazil
OECD average
Japan

EU19 average

France

Chile
Canada

Sweden

Denmark

Spain
United States

Estonia

Australia

Netherlands

Slovenia

Austria

Korea
New Zealand

Finland

Norway

Germany
Iceland

Ireland

Hungary

Poland

Italy
Czech Republic

Portugal
Greece

Mexico



http://conahec.org




Rank change
Order in 2050
between 2012
by size
and 2050
1 China 2
2 US -1
3 India 5
4 Japan -2
5 Germany -1
6 UK -1
7 Brazil 2
8 Mexico 5
9 France -3
10 Canada 0
11 Italy -4
12 Turkey 6
13 S. Korea -2
14 Spain -2
15 Russia 2
16 Indonesia 5
17 Australia -3
18 Argentina -2
19 Egypt 16
20 Malaysia 17
Source: HSBC Global Research Unit. http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html#

2010

USA
2005 CANADA
MEXICO

2000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: OECD Factbook 2012



(*): GDP equivalent based on PPP
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010



Public vs. private higher education institutions
in Brazil

Out of 2.412 HEIs in Brazil, only 252 are public



8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0



Fuente: Parada, J. Science and Technology Policy in Mexico. 2003

.

Mundo
Países OCDE
EUA
Japón
Alemania
Francia
Corea del Sur
Inglaterra
Holanda
China
Mundo: 47,022
Canadá EUA: 13,715
Israel
India
México: 13
Noruega
Brasil
Nueva Zelanda
Portugal
República Checa
México

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000



Mobility

Providers
Rankings of higher
education

Curriculum

• Increased mobility (intra/inter)
One • Internationalization adopted in the institutional rhetoric
• Massive private investment on education
Two
• Towards more international quality assurance
frameworks
Three
• The role of rankings
Four
• Technology as means for “virtual” mobility
Five • Proliferation of dual/joint degrees

• Timid efforts with second language
Six

• Some good practices. Some hope
Seven



Differences in
The endless
history, structure,
dichotomies
responses.

John Hudzik



It is essential that it be embraced by
It shapes institutional ethos and values and
institutional leadership, governance,
touches the entire higher education
faculty, students, and all academic service
enterprise.
and support units.

COMPREHENSIVE
INTERNATIONALIZATION

The global reconfiguration of economies,
systems of trade, research, and
Not only impacts all of campus life but the communication, and the impact of global
institution’s external frames of reference, forces on local life, dramatically expand the
partnerships, and relations. need for comprehensive
internationalization and the motivations
and purposes driving it.

John Hudzik



More than 3.3 million students
abroad.
It is forecasted that by 2020 there
will be 7 million international
students.

.

1975 1980 1990 1995 2000 2004 2006 2008

Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics (for data on non-OECD countries and up to 1995).



• It is forecasted that by 2020
the number will increase to 7
million international students

2009 OECD average
%
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Hungary

Portugal
Canada¹

Estonia
Sweden
Denmark

Japan
Spain
Netherlands

United States

Norway

Poland
United Kingdom

New Zealand
Belgium
Switzerland

Ireland

Iceland

Finland

Slovak Republic

Chile
Australia

Austria

Slovenia



Major players: U.S.A., U.K. and Australia

Middle powers: France, Germany, Spain, Italy

Evolving destinations: Canada, New Zealand, Japan

Emerging contenders: Malaysia, China, Singapore

Source: Verbik, L. et al. (2007) International Student Mobility: Patterns and Trends. The Observatory on
Borderless Higher Education



Korea:
4.6%

India:
6.8%
China:
17.1%

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2010



2006
2002 Other
Austria
OCDE
9% 2% Italy
Swiss
2%
2%
U.S.A. Belgium
20% 2%
Spain
2%
Japan
England 4%
14% France
9%
Germany
12% Australia
10%



USE OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE COUNTRIES
IN INSTRUCTION
All or nearly all education programs Australia, Canada, Ireland, N.Zealand, U.K., U.S.A.

Many education programs Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden

Some education programs Belgium (Fl.), Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary,
Iceland, Japan, Korea, Norway, Poland, Slovak R., Switzerland,
Turkey

None or nearly no education programs Austria, Belgium (Fr.), Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico,
Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Chile, Israel, Russian Federation

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2006



TUITION FEE STRUCTURE COUNTRIES

Higher tuition for international students than for Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Ireland,
domestic students Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovak Republic, Turkey,
United Kingdom1, United States

Same tuition for international and domestic France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico,
students Portugal, Spain, Switzerland

No tuition for either international or domestic Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway,
students Sweden

A worldwide “industry” generating more than 20 billion USD annually

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2006 and 2010



Cultural/experiential Increased
Mobility still mostly: “Brain-drain”
goals and means: commodification:

Questionable
For the better-off Quality
practices. (The Brain-circulation?
students Assurance
“bubble” effect)

The role of
The “time-
To the better-off governments,
compression” Money talks
countries companies and
factor
universities

Regulations?

Students traveling abroad
for a short period of time
with their “imported”
teacher, remaining together,
continuing to speak mainly
their own language even
while abroad, and having
just a superficial glimpse at
the foreign culture and
people



More than half of the U.S. students who go
abroad only participate in a short term
program (IIE, 2010)

Cultural/experiential Increased
Mobility still mostly: “Brain-drain”
goals and means: commodification:

Questionable
For the better-off Quality
practices. (The Brain-circulation?
students Assurance
“bubble” effect)

The role of
The “time-
To the better-off governments,
compression” Money talks
countries companies and
factor
universities

Regulations?



Share of a country’s national with a university education
who live in an(other) OECD country

Only 30 % of Africans studying abroad
return to the region after graduation
Jamil Salmi

Note: The emigration rate of highly educated persons from country i is calculated by dividing the highly educated expatriate population from country of
origin i by the total highly educated native-born population of the same country (Highly educated native-born(i)= Expatriates(i) + Resident native born(i)).
Highly educated persons correspond to those with a tertiary level of education.

Source: OECD Database on Foreign Born and Expatriates; Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, 2006 and Cohen D. and M. Soto, 2001, Growth and
Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results, OECD Development Centre WP n°179.

F. Marmolejo, S. Manley y S. Vincent-Lancrin
Immigration and access to tertiary education: Integration or
marginalisation?”

OECD, 2009



Nunnally Johnson
The Grapes of Wrath (1940)



Competency Important Achieved
Ethical commitment 3.76 3.0
Most Commitment to quality 3.72 2.91
important Ability to learn and adapt learning 3.68 2.94
Ability to apply knowledge in practice 3.66 2.84
Ability to identify, pose and solve problems 3.65 2.92

Competency Important Achieved
Capacity for research 3.4 2.76
Less Commitment to socio-cult. environment 3.37 2.71
important Comm. to look after the environment 3.27 2.45
Ability to work in international context 3.15 2.30
Ability to communicate in a 2nd. language 3.11 2.06

Source: Final Report Tuning Latin America. (2007) . http://www.tuning.unideusto.org



Source: IAU (2010)



By the year 2050 the most widely
spoken languages in the world will
be:
• 1 Mandarin
• 2 Spanish
• 3= English
• 3= Hindi/Urdu
• 3= Arabic.
Even considering English as the
lingua franca of business, Mark
Davis back in 2004 did an
interesting breakdown of the
percentages of world GDP by
language. He calculated that by
2010 English would represent only
28 percent of the global market,
followed by Chinese, Japanese,
German and Spanish.

Fonte: English Next (2007). The British Council

Source: David Graddol. The Future of English? (London: British Council, 1997). Foreign Policy. Nov-Dec. 2003. No. 139



Fonte:
English Next
(2007). The
British
Council

The role agents

Institutional &
Authenticity of
community
credentials
preparedness

Financial/political International
domestic quality
implications frameworks

The influence of
public policy



Source: SIL International. http://www.sil.org



Fuente: English Next (2007). The British Council

1: Noruega. 69.09
18: Mexico. 51.48
44: Kazajstán 31.64



Source: David Graddol. The Future of English? (London: British Council, 1997). Foreign Policy. Nov-Dec. 2003. No. 139
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmole@email.arizona.edu

Fuente:
English Next
(2007). The
British
Council



Source: Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Modernization,
Cultural Change and Democracy. New York, Cambridge
University Press, 2005: p. 64 based on the World Values Surveys.

http://conahec.org
Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribune



A new type of
students





¿Sequential? Multi-task?



d wA dis teacha wrks S borin.
U@? PTMN bout r teacha S lamo. Jst B
dis teacha. I N K


Where are you? The way this teacher works is
Please tell me now boring. Our teacher is an idiot.
about this teacher. Just bla, bla, bla.
I need to know




GEOMETRY
Defina what a circle is:
It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.

What is Trigonometry?:
Device used to measure trigonometers.

HISTORIA
Who was Simón Bolivar?
The Prince of Bolivia



THE HUMAN BODY

What are the movements of the heart?:
The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.

Brain:
Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.



I have a netbook, MP3
Players, flashdrive, IPAD…
Dad, what did you use in
school?

My brain!!

Col
um Colu
mn2
n…
,,
99…

Gajaraj Dhanarajan



http://www.worldmapper.org



Pew Internet &
American Life: US
educators not Net-
savvy Aug 14 2002: A
new study from Pew
Internet & American
Life indicates that 78
percent of middle and
high school students
in the US use the
Internet.
However, most
American teenagers
claim that educators
often don’t know how,
don’t want, or aren’t
able to use online
tools to help them
learn or enrich their Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today. Sep. 24-98
studies.

Francisco Marmolejo fmarmole@email.arizona.edu http://conahec.org



In a traditional setting:
The University





Towards a new
University




More international, but more locally
connected and socially responsible.
More flexible
More innovative
More entrepreneur
More critical of the status-quo
More collaborative (inside and outside)

Graduates required in today’s world

Habilidades Técnicas

Source: Business Council of British Columbia



There is no magic formula…

What it may work in one case

…it is not necessarily the best solution in
other cases

What are the
major forces or
What are the factors that are
major barriers encouraging
Are there that need to be institutions to
examples of overcomed? become more
What are the institutions internationalized
longer-term moving in this
possibilities for direction? How
building to use them?
comprehensive and
sustainable
partnerships?



Just a good idea A critical need

Source of prestige and “sell” Survival tool

Non practical Highly practical

Marginal Beneficial

A priority for “tomorrow” Priority for “yesterday”
http://conahec.org

Preparing students with global awareness and competitiveness but
also with social consciousness and greater sense of social
responsibility?
Strengthening the cooperation among higher education
institutions and their surrounding communities, nationally and
internationally?

Implementing mechanisms for a better understanding, awareness
and respect?

Innovating?




CONAHEC was created In 1994 as the
U.S.-Mexico Educational Interchange
Project



Collaboration
Cooperation
Community-building

among higher education
institutions in North America …and beyond
http://conahec.org

150+ Institutions and
Higher Education Organizations

In North America… and beyond
• Argentina
CONAHEC’s • Brazil
memberships’ • Chile
• Colombia
total enrollment • Dominican Republic
represents • Ecuador
• Honduras
2.5+ million
students • Iceland
• Malaysia
On more than • Spain
• South Korea
250 campi •Burkina Faso



http://conahec.org

There is no better
or worst.. It is just
different

There is always
someone else with
a similar interest

The node network is not
the office in Tucson, but
each member institution

http://conahec.org



A Strategic Alliance

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naidanaC
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Our most popular services
Networking. “Dating service” (Match-making)

Exchange of “empty seats” (Student Exchange)

Promotion / Awareness / Training

Resource center for administrators / faculty / students

Assisting member institutions in developing/implementing/evaluating
partnership arrangements with peer institutions



North American
“Dating Service”
• student internships • research

• intensive language • study abroad
programs
• faculty sabbaticals,
• institutional partnerships fellowships, and exchanges

• funding opportunities • leadership training for
administrators
• business higher
education partnerships • consulting for higher
education or business
• requests for partner
institutions to collaborate • job offers (students,
on specific projects faculty)

Learn new approaches
Share expertise
Connect with partners for collaboration



Undergraduate and graduate levels
Multi-institutional, multi-level
Costs. Tuition Swaps
Credit Recognition
Electronically based exchange program

http://conahec.org

“Service Learning” based student exchanges
More asymmetrical than today
Faculty exchanges (based on institutional
needs)
Staff exchanges (in conjunction with
Compostela Group of Universities’ STELLA
Program)

http://conahec.org



Opportunity to involve students
Future leaders
Ambassadors and advocates
Venues:
Regional Chapters
Conference

Educational Resource Center for Hispanics in the
U.S. unable to attend “traditional” institutions due
to:
Language issues (Spanish as preferred language of
communication)
Age
Limited financial resources
Time constraints
Lack of appropriate documents
Educational background



http://conahec.org

Una nota final

“ Lo que nos desconcierta en
nuestros tiempos es que el futuro ya
no es lo que solía ser ”
Paul Valéry



Francisco J. Marmolejo
Executive Director
Consortium for North American Higher Education
Collaboration (CONAHEC)
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721-0300 U.S.A.
Tel. (520) 621-9080 / Fax (520) 626-2675
E.mail: fmarmole@email.arizona.edu
WWW: http://conahec.org


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