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Briefing   Olaf Acker
           Florian Gröne
           Germar Schröder
           Hans Geerdes




The Global ICT 50
The Supply Side
of Digitization
Driven by a combination of consumer demand and the development of new information
    and communications technology (ICT), the world is rapidly transforming. This process
    has been happening since the arrival of the computer 60 years ago, but in the past few
    years it has accelerated, altering everyday life in unprecedented ways. A society with
    ubiquitous handheld devices, pervasive sensing apparatus, “big data” analytics, digital
    supply chains, search engines, social networks, satellite-based geographic tracking,
    interconnected real-time digital infrastructure, and massive server farms is arguably as
    different from the 1980s as 1950, with ubiquitous electricity, automobiles, and broadcast
    radio, was from 1850.

    We call this shift digitization. It is being driven in part by the companies that make use
    of digital infrastructure and in part by consumers around the world. The enterprise
    market for online IT and digital telecom is booming — corporate sales worldwide grew
    6 percent annually in 2010 and 2011 — while the market for consumer-oriented devices
    and services (including cloud-based online IT services) grew even more rapidly. At the
    forefront of change is Generation C, people born after 1990 who expect to be connected
    to everyone, everywhere, at home and at work. As members of this group come of age,
    moving into managerial ranks or starting their own businesses, the tools and habits of
    digitization will become second nature.

    One might expect that because society is increasingly dependent on digital products
    and services, the producers of digitization would be affluent, assured of success, and
    complacent. But their industry is undergoing a parallel transformation, and it is not clear
    how many companies will last in their current form. The traditional sectors of the ICT
    ecosystem — a multi-trillion-dollar industry whose members include enterprise service
    providers, hardware producers, telecom companies, and software developers (including
    the purveyors of Internet services and social media) — are blurring and converging.
    For example, telecom, hardware, and software companies are moving into IT services.
    Offshore IT service providers are developing enterprise software, often in the form
    of low-cost, highly standardized systems delivered over the Internet, designed to take
    over large portions of the work of traditional corporate IT departments. The industry
    is also being invaded by a host of hungry, innovative new Internet players, who offer
    innovative Web-based solutions that bypass the systems of the past. In this context, even
    the wealthiest, most successful ICT providers, like Microsoft in the 1990s, Google in the
    2000s, and Apple today, cannot be certain of sustaining their success. The title of the first
    book by former Intel CEO Andrew Grove — Only the Paranoid Survive — has never
    seemed so telling a comment on this industry.

    How will the process of digitization play out? How will it affect the companies vying to
    supply these technologies, particularly in the business-to-business domain? The answers
    are critically important to decision makers in any company, no matter its industry. The
    choice of ICT goods and services is a critical strategic factor: It deeply influences the
    quality and distinctiveness of a company’s capabilities. That choice, in turn, depends on
    a clear assessment of the future of these providers. It is all too easy to get locked into a
    technology system that will not be sustained in the marketplace.

    At a more exalted level, the leading digitization providers are among the most influential
    companies of our time, and their influence is increasing. Their digital channels shape
    the patterns of behavior for all other businesses and, indeed, for a great deal of human
    interaction.




2                                                                                 Booz & Company
Finally, these companies are a fascinating group in their own right. Some, like Hewlett-
    Packard (HP) and IBM, have existed for many decades, continually reinventing
    themselves; others are relative newcomers. Each, in its own way, has mastered innovation
    and struggled with disruption. Their story is our story.



    ANATOMY OF THE ICT 50

    In early 2012, a group of Booz & Company researchers evaluated the 50 largest publicly
    traded global suppliers of information and communications technology products and
    services to enterprise: the “Global ICT 50.” We assessed how well they are doing now
    and how prepared they are for the changes that lie ahead, and then we ranked them
    according to their enterprise relevance: their potential importance to company value
    chains, in the present and the near future. Four qualities come together to make up
    this score:

    •	 Financial performance: Which companies can best sustain the profitability needed to
       make the investments that will help them win the digitization race?

    •	 Portfolio strength: Which companies possess the best mix of business-to-business prod-
       ucts and services, given the demands of digitization?

    •	 Go-to-market footprint: Which companies have established sales and delivery capabili-
       ties in the top markets for ICT?

    •	 Growth potential: Which companies have the three factors needed today for expansion
       in this industry: prowess in innovation, presence in emerging economies, and the ability
       to attract new customers?

    With assessments of these four qualities based on publicly available information, we
    ranked the trajectory of performance for the leading companies in the four main sectors
    in this industry.

    1. Hardware and infrastructure companies: This sector, which includes Apple, Hewlett-
       Packard, Dell, Cisco Systems, and Xerox, has traditionally been the core of the
       technology industry. Although their hardware systems have often been complementary
       (Cisco produces the routers that connect HP’s printers to Apple’s tablets and Dell’s
       computers), these companies have long been perceived as being in the same business.
       Now they are striving to build more differentiated businesses, branching out into soft-
       ware and services, while retaining core businesses built around ever more powerful and
       affordable equipment.

    2. Software and Internet companies: This group includes Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and
       SAP, and it is positioned to do well in a highly digitized world. Some of these compa-
       nies are very large, giving them the strength to compete successfully in digitization (and
       in many cases, as with Microsoft and Google, to branch out into hardware). Others
       are smaller, but focused and capitalized enough to lead the industry. The small play-
       ers’ products tend to be specialized or sufficiently distinctive, giving them relatively
       protected platforms from which to expand.

    3. IT service providers: Having established themselves over the past 30 years as technol-
       ogy concierges to large- and medium-scale enterprises, these companies offer a variety
       of services: hosting computers and networks, managing computer applications such as
       databases, and integrating hardware and software. This category has three subgroups,




3                                                                                Booz & Company
Growing Customer Sophistication




                                                                                                                    gnment
Strate
                                                          New Market Emergence

                                                      Distortions
                                                 Regulations

                                   each with its own business dynamic. The first is global companies, such as IBM,
                                   Accenture, and CSC. They have parlayed their scale into industry leadership positions.
                                   Regional service providers, such as Atos in France, Logica in the U.K., and Unisys in
                                   the U.S., face a more challenging future. Some are using M&A to increase their scale
                                    51%
                                   and market share; for example, Atos bought Siemens IT Solutions and Services in
                                   2011, to create what the announcement called a “European IT champion.” The third
                                   subgroup consists of offshore IT service providers based in India, including HCL,
                                                    36%
             32%                   Infosys, and Wipro. Starting from a relatively low base, these companies have shown
                                   the strongest growth of all the ICT 50 in recent years — more than 15 percent annu-
                                                                                    23%
                                   ally, even through the global economic downturn.

                                                                    13%                            12%
                                4. Telecom operators: Hundreds of companies bring telecommunications — a combina-
                      7%           tion of mobile, landline, Internet, and television — to homes and offices around the
                                   world. The most prominent include NTT, Telefónica/O2, and Verizon. This group faces
                                   the largest challenge of the four: Many companies still have significant amounts of cash
                   Unskilled      Skilled                                           Sales       Customer
                   Production      on hand, but much of it is being consumed by ongoing investments in network infra-
                                Production                                                        Service
                                   structure and in dividend commitments. And not all of them are funneling investment
                                   into innovation and new capabilities, such as IT services.

                                Each of these groups has its own combination of qualities, with different competitive
                                strengths and weaknesses. (See Exhibit 1.) Despite their differences, all the members of                  Guid

                                the ICT 50 have one thing in common: They share a context that has shifted markedly                       11.0
                                during the past few years, and not just because of the global economic downturn. Earlier
                                                                                                                                          aölkd
                                waves of information and communications technology, during which businesses fulfilled
                                their basic needs for connectivity and computing power, have effectively run their course.
                                                                                                                                          32.8
                                The two critical infrastructure elements required for digital media — computer power
                                                                                                                                           30.

                                Exhibit 1
                                ICT 50 Groups and Their Strengths                                                                          TAB

                                                                                                                                          A4 fo
                                                               DIMENSIONAL PERFORMANCE BY PLAYER CLUSTER
                                                                                                                                          - wid
                                                                                                                                          - wid
                                                                       1
                                                            Financial Performance                                                         Lette
                                                                                                                                          - wid
                                                                                                                                          - wid


                                                                                                                                          Lines
                                                                                                                                          Lines

                                                                                                Hardware and Infrastructure Companies
                                                                                                                                          Note
                                                                                                Telecom Operators                         Plea
                                    3                                                   2                                                 othe
                                 Sales &                                            Portfolio                                             file.
                                                                                    Strength    IT Service Providers                      Thes
                                 Delivery

                                                                                                Software and Internet Companies           App




                                                                          4
                                                                      Innovation


                                Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study




         4                                                                                                               Booz & Company
and ubiquitous Internet access — were established in the 1990s, were rolled out across
              the world in the 2000s, and are now commodities throughout most industries.

              The most recent wave of digitization began around the time the iPhone was introduced
                                   51%
              (in 2007), and has picked up speed since 2010. With the basic infrastructure in place,
              both businesses and consumers are demanding more from software and services.
              The mobile handheld device has become an all-purpose digital gateway; employees
                                                  36%
     32%
              increasingly demand the right to bring their own devices to work, along with greater
              flexibility to mix their personal and working lives, and the continued expansion of
                                                                                 23%
              their personal and social networks. As digitization takes hold, the boundaries between
              departments — and between companies — become looser and more permeable than they
                                                                 13%                             12%
              have ever been before. Supply chains integrate using cloud-based applications; marketers
                  7%
              aggregate data from online sources, including social media. In all of these ways, and
              more, sophisticated new services have rapidly and offhandedly moved into the business
              world, where they are disrupting the ICT market.
    Overall   Unskilled              Skilled          Engineers   HR/IT/F&A      Sales         Customer
              Production           Production                                                   Service
              The changing nature of the demand for ICT products and services helps explain why
              the supply side of digitization is in flux — with more volatility than at any time since
              the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The Global ICT 50 was designed to
              provide an analytical portrait of that volatility. To our knowledge, it is the first study
              to examine enterprise relevance for all four sectors together. If some of the rankings
              seem counterintuitive, that’s because the business-to-business emphasis leads to very
              different assessments from those of the typical technology press. For example, Apple,
              with its notable success and high market capitalization, is ranked below HP and Cisco
              Systems. Google is not even included in the top 10. (See Exhibit 2.) Apple and Google
              are both remarkable, extraordinarily capable companies, but their impact on corporate
              ICT purchasing remains relatively low, no matter how many iPads or search engine
              advertisements are sold. If you are a CIO or an ICT decision maker, designing your
              company’s approach to digitization, the companies at the top of each category are the
              ones you need to pay attention to. (See Exhibit 3, page 6.)



              Exhibit 2
              The Top 10 Members of the ICT 50 by Overall Score


                                                    Company           Score
                                        1 Microsoft                    2.88
                                        2 Oracle                       2.85
                                        3 IBM                          2.82
                                        4 Hewlett-Packard              2.59
                                        5 Cisco Systems                2.53
                                        6 Apple                        2.42
                                        7 SAP                          2.40
                                        8 Xerox                        2.39
                                        9 Accenture                    2.38
                                      10 CSC                           2.20



              Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study




5                                                                                          Booz & Company
aölkd


                                                                                                                                         32.8%

                                                                                                                                          30.1

    Exhibit 3
    The Global ICT 50 by Category
                                                                                                                                          TAB

             Hardware and Infrastructure Companies                          Software and Internet Companies                              A4 fo
                                                                                                                                         - widt
                    Company                     Revenue                          Company                      Revenue
                                                                                                                                         - widt
         Hewlett-Packard                          127.2                Microsoft                                  69.9
         Apple                                    108.2                Oracle                                     35.6                   Letter
                                                                                                                                         - widt
         Samsung                                   99.8                Google                                     29.3                   - widt
         Dell                                      61.5                SAP                                        16.7
         Fujitsu                                   55.5                Yahoo                                       6.3
                                                                                                                                         Lines
         Cisco Systems                             43.2                Symantec                                    6.2                   Lines
         NEC                                       38.2                Intuit                                      3.9
         Ericsson                                  30.4                Adobe                                       3.8
                                                                                                                                         Note:
         Xerox                                     21.6                Amdocs                                      3.2                   Pleas
         Alcatel Lucent                            21.4                Convergys                                   2.2                   other
                                                                                                                                         file.
                                                                                                                                         These
                      IT Service Providers                                           Telecom Operators
                    Company                      Revenue                         Company                      Revenue                    Appr
         IBM (Global)                              99.9                NTT                                       128.3
         Accenture (Global)                        27.4                AT&T                                      124.3
         CSC (Global)                              16.0                Verizon                                   106.6
         Capgemini (Global)                        11.6                Deutsche Telekom                           83.5
         CGI (Regional)                            11.6                Telefónica                                 81.2
         First Data (Global)                       10.4                Vodafone                                   71.1
         Tata Consultancy Services                                     France Telecom                             60.9
                                                     8.4
         (TCS) (Offshore)                                              KDDI                                       42.1
         Hitachi (Regional)                          8.0               British Telecom                            31.1
         Wipro (Offshore)                            7.0               KPN                                        17.8
         Atos (Regional)                             6.7
         Infosys (Offshore)                          6.2
         Logica (Regional)                           5.7
         Cognizant (Regional)                        4.6
         Capita (Regional)                           4.3
         Unisys (Regional)                           4.0
         IT Holdings (Regional)                      4.0
         HCL (Offshore)                              3.5
         Indra (Regional)                            3.4
         Steria (Regional)                           2.3
         Tieto (Regional)                            2.3

    Note: Revenue is in US$ billions. IT Service Providers are divided into three subgroups: Global companies have a balanced presence
    in all major regions; regional providers are limited in geographic scope; and offshore firms are based in emerging, low-labor-cost
    markets such as India.
    Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study




    FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

    Where financial performance is concerned, the ICT 50 analysis confirms that one prevail-
    ing assumption of the past decade — “service rules” — no longer holds true. None of the
    top five financial performers were IT service providers or telecom operators. The software
    and Internet companies Microsoft, Google, and Oracle had the greatest overall financial
    health, followed by the hardware and infrastructure companies Apple and Cisco Systems.

    The hardware and infrastructure group experienced a slump during the economic
    downturn, but it has recovered since 2010, with three-year revenue growth of more than
    11 percent. Margins, however, are comparatively low, at just 12 percent on average, and
    these companies face tremendous pressure as digitization expands. This pressure was




6                                                                                                               Booz & Company
Production and Supply              Network Delivery                   Customer & Retail            Corporate/Shared Service



                                Disruption in Commodity Markets




                                                                                                                                                               Capability Alignment
Strategic Coherence




                                                           highlighted in May 2012, when Hewlett-Packard announced it would cut more than
                                                               Disruptive Technologies
                                                           7 percent of Next-Generation Infrastructure the savings in cloud-based businesses.
                                                                          its workforce and reinvest
                                                                           Growing Customer Sophistication
                                                           As a whole, the software companies have the most enviable financial performance, for
                                                                                 New Market Emergence
                                                           the moment. They have seen overall three-year revenue growth of more than 10 percent,
                                                           and their marginsDistortions been higher than 30 percent — higher than those of any
                                                                             have long
                                                                         Regulations
                                                           other group. But they may soon face global rivals among the offshore service providers,
                                                           who have by far the fastest growth rate and impressive EBIT margins of more than
                                                           20 percent, on average.

                                                           Global service providers are also doing well; they maintain margins around 15 percent,
                                                                51%
                                                           and IBM generates more than US$15 billion in free cash flow each year. Regional service
                                                           providers are in a more daunting position: With only mild revenue growth in the last two
                                                           years, and margins 36% 5 to 8 percent range, they may soon find themselves with little
                                                                                 in the
                          32%                              room to maneuver. Telecom companies are also stressed financially, but for a different
                                                           reason: Comparatively stable and with relatively high earnings, they find that their
                                                           growth has leveled off since the financial crisis of 2008 and shows no sign of renewed
                                                                                                                 23%
                                                           liftoff. (See Exhibit 4.)
                                                                                                            13%                                         12%
                                              7%
                                                           PORTFOLIO STRENGTH

                                          Unskilled        In Skilled
                                                              the past, each group of ICT suppliers stayed well within theirCustomer guarded
                                                                                                              Sales          closely
                                          Production        Production                                                       Service
                                                           sector boundaries. Software companies sold software, and telecom operators built
                                                           communications networks and sold phone services. The four groups are still distinct,
                                                           but not necessarily for long. Both traditional and nontraditional ICT companies are
                                                           consolidating, seeking to build integrated ecosystems that cut across established business
                                                           models and help them manage convergence.                                                                                                       Gui
                                                                                                                                                                                                          11.0
                                                           The pattern of mergers and acquisitions provides a tangible clue to the direction in which
                                                           companies are moving. In 2009, hardware company Xerox acquired Affiliated Computer                                                             aölk
                                                           Services, a business process outsourcing firm, thereby accelerating Xerox’s shift to IT
                                                                                                                                                                                                          32.8
                                                           services. Dell bought IT services provider Perot Systems the same year, with similar
                                                                                                                                                                                                           30

                                                           Exhibit 4
                                                           Financial Trends for the ICT 50 since 2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                           TA


                                                                                         FINANCIAL INDICATORS BY PLAYER CATEGORY                                                                          A4 f
                                                                                        REPORTED IN 2007–2011/LAST FIVE FISCAL YEARS                                                                      - wid
                                                                                                                                                                                                          - wid

                                                           Revenue                                                           Ø EBIT                                                                       Lett
                                                           (2007=100)                               Five-Year CAGR:          Margin (%)                                                                   - wid
                                                                                                                                                                                         Software and     - wid
                                                            210                                         20% IT Services      35                                                       34 Internet
                                                                                                            (Offshore)                                                                   Companies
                                                            200      Not adjusted
                                                            190        for M&A                                               30
                                                                                                            Software and                                                                                  Line
                                                            180                                                                                                                                           Line
                                                                                                        12% Internet         25                                                       23 IT Services
                                                            170                                             Companies                                                                    (Offshore)
                                                            160                                             Hardware and     20                                                       17 Telecom
                                                                                                         9% Infrastructure                                                               Operators        Note
                                                            150                                             Companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Plea
                                                            140
                                                                                                            IT Services
                                                                                                                             15                                                       15 IT Services
                                                                                                         6% (Regional)                                                                   (Global)         othe
                                                            130
                                                                                                                             10                                                                           file.
                                                            120                                                                                                                          Hardware and
                                                                                                            Telecom
                                                                                                         6% Operators                                                                 12 Infrastructure   The
                                                            110                                                               5                                                          Companies
                                                            100                                          3% IT Services                                                                                   App
                                                                                                            (Global)                                                                     IT Services
                                                             90                                                               0                                                        8 (Regional)
                                                              2007      2008   2009   2010       2011                          2007       2008   2009   2010   2011


                                                           Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study




                      7                                                                                                                                                      Booz & Company
nment
Strat
                                                             New Market Emergence

                                                        Distortions
                                                  Regulations


                               intent. Other acquisitions, like Oracle’s 2010 purchase of Sun Microsystems, represent
                               moves toward more complete software integration (adding a little hardware to the mix
                               as well). These types of consolidations allow software companies, which were formerly
                                    51%
                               concentrated on specific applications, to internalize larger parts of systems integrators’
                               traditional home turf and hold the line against IT service providers.

                                                    36%
            32%
                               Launches of new products and services also frequently represent moves across sector
                               boundaries. (See Exhibit 5.) Some telecom operators seek a foothold in cloud computing
                               and IT services; Verizon’s cloud-based infrastructure-as-a-service offering is one example,
                                                                                    23%
                               as is KPN, which provides application management services to its customers. Software
                               and Internet companies are also innovating across boundaries, albeit more selectively.
                                                                   13%                              12%
                               Yahoo, for example, offers comprehensive Web hosting but has stayed out of data center
                     7%
                               services and desktop operations.

                  Unskilled    TheSkilled
                                    companies most likely to cross boundaries are Sales service Customer
                                                                                  the IT             providers. IBM, for
                                                            Software and
                  Production     Production                                                           Service
                               example, offers its Sametime Unified Telephony service, which includes telephony features
                                                        Internet companies
                                                          players expand
                               for users and multi-PBX telephony integration for telephony managers, and CSC offersof IT
                                                             selectively                                            Some effort
                                                                                                               service providers move
                               Unified Communications as a Service as well as My Conference Space, an integrated services
                                                                                                                 into telecom
                                                                                Hardware and infrastructure
                               audio and Web conferencing solution.           companies and telecom operators

                                                                                                                                                                                 Gu
                               Besides this ability to manage convergence, the score reflects the ability to provide next-
                                                                                                                                                                                 11
                               generation products and services. Many companies are blending traditional offerings
                               with new technologies such as highly specialized services, including radio frequency                                                              aö
                               identification solutions for retail, near-field communications solutions, cloud computing
                                                                                                                                                                                 32

                                                                                                                                                                                  3
                               Exhibit 5
                               Portfolio Expansion Activities in the ICT 50
                                                                                                                                                                                  T

                                                                                           PORTFOLIO FOCUS BY TYPE OF PLAYER                                                     A4
                                                                                                                                                                                 -w
                                                       Hardware & Software                 Telecom            IT Services                Business Services        Digitization   -w
                                                                                           Services
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                                 Hardware and                                                                                                                                    Lin
                                 Infrastructure
                                 Companies
                                                                                                                                                                                 No
                                 Telecom
                                 Operators
                                                                                                                                                                                 Ple
                                                                                                                                                                                 oth
                                 IT Service                                                                                                                                      file
                                 Providers                                                                                                                                       Th
                                 (Global)
                                 IT Service
                                                                                                                                                                                 Ap
                                 Providers
                                 (Regional)
                                 IT Service
                                 Providers
                                 (Offshore)
                                 Software and
                                 Internet
                                 Companies

                                                                                                                                                              Strong offering
                                                                                                   Traditional main revenue source
                                                                                                   New areas of activity                                      Weak offering

                               Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study




        8                                                                                                                                              Booz & Company
51%




                                                 36%
    32%

                       and mobile payment platform support. Unfortunately, the profits and growth expected
                                                                           23%
                       from next-generation offerings have not yet materialized. Most companies still earn more
                       from classic ICT products and services; the next few years will tell how rapidly their
                                                            13%
                       customers will shift to next-generation technologies.                12%
             7%
                       Two other capabilities figure in the score for portfolio strength. First is the development
                       of horizontal digital offerings for particular functions. Companies in the ICT 50 offer
          Unskilled         Skilled                                          Sales         Customer
          Production   such specialized services as customer analytics, digital marketing, campaign management,
                         Production                                                         Service
                       billing services, sales-force automation, social network integration, supply chain logistics,
                       and e-procurement to company after company. Second is the provision of vertical
                       offerings: tailored, industry-specific technological solutions that work across functions.
                       Current examples include outsourced network management for telecom; clinical
                       information systems, digital health monitoring, and homecare products for healthcare                   Gu

                       companies; and smart metering systems for utilities. In both the horizontal and vertical               11
                       cases, the key value proposition appears to be integration; large companies are looking
                                                                                                                              aö
                       for ICT providers that can weave many diverse services around a coherent, focused,
                       interoperable core.
                                                                                                                              32

                       Some might assume that the industry is moving toward a consolidated group of                            3
                       comprehensive “one-stop” ICT companies with diversified portfolios. In three categories
                       out of four, however, the results suggest otherwise: Companies with higher levels of
                       coherence, applying the same capabilities to all of their offerings, have higher levels of              T
                       growth and profitability than more diversified companies. The exception, at least to
                                                                                                                              A4
                       date, is IT service providers; that may change as their category converges and matures.                -w
                       (See Exhibit 6.)                                                                                       -w

                                                                                                                              Le
                                                                                                                              -w
                                                                                                                              -w


                       Exhibit 6                                                                                              Lin
                       Portfolio Completeness and Financial Performance                                                       Lin


                                           GROWTH                                           PROFITABILITY                     No
                                                                                                                              Ple
                          Revenue                                          EBIT
                                                                                                                              oth
                          Growth                                           Margin
                                                                                                                              file
                                                                                                                              Th

                                                                                                                              Ap
                                                                                    Apple

                                Google

                                             Xerox           IT Services                           IBM
                                                                                                            IT Services

                                                             All Players                                    All Players
                                                      SAP                                           HP
                                             Capita                                             Tieto


                                     Diversification                                 Diversification
                            (Classic Products and Services)                 (Classic Products and Services)



                       Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study




9                                                                                                            Booz & Company
GO-TO-MARKET FOOTPRINT

     Having sales and delivering capabilities in the top markets is often overlooked by
     commentators, but it is critical to the success of any ICT company with global
     aspirations. That’s especially evident in the five most highly developed ICT markets —
     the U.S., the U.K., Japan, Germany, and France. These countries saw combined sales of
     $1.2 trillion in 2011, more than 60 percent of total global sales of ICT services. A strong
     sales and delivery capability in these markets certifies the ability of ICT players to satisfy
     the needs of the largest corporations. And these markets offer a source of revenue and a
     profit pool that is too big to be ignored.

     The offshore IT service providers are pushing hard to establish a foothold in these
     markets, which have not been their natural operating environment in the past. Tata
     Consultancy Services already has more than 600 employees in Germany alone. We
     expect to see more aggressive investment and acquisition activities by these companies,
     which will increasingly compete (or form strategic partnerships) with regional IT service
     providers.

     The go-to-market footprint score also takes into account the ability to manage
     production facilities around the world, drawing on inexpensive labor, as well as “follow-
     the-sun” delivery (where a project is handed off daily from one time zone to another, thus
     providing 24-hour scheduling). This type of global production is particularly challenging
     for many telecom operators. They are bound to their local markets by their existing
     infrastructure investments, which severely limits the efficiencies they can gain in other
     locations, and by the inherent complexity of combining offshore and onshore operations.
     Telecom companies also face more regulatory restrictions than the other groups. This
     explains a striking correlation in the data for telecom operators: The more offshore
     activity they engage in, the less profitable they are.

     The opposite is true for IT service providers. The more their operations move offshore,
     the higher their profitability. Regional IT service providers may feel some disadvantage;
     they lack the capabilities and capital to break into emerging markets. But the offshore
     providers are already familiar with many emerging markets, and they have been able to
     realize savings from lower workforce costs. Global providers also do well on this score;
     they have established successful production facilities (and the requisite talent practices to
     staff them) around the globe. Companies such as IBM, with delivery centers worldwide,
     and Capgemini, whose workforce is distributed in 40 countries, are significantly more
     profitable than those whose production takes place primarily in high-wage countries.
     (We saw little or no correlation effect with the other two groups, presumably because
     hardware and infrastructure companies, and their software and Internet counterparts,
     have more flexible geographic and labor requirements.)

     	
     GROWTH POTENTIAL

     For a digitization provider, the prospects for growth are as important as current-day
     financial performance. The growth potential score is heavily weighted by each company’s
     ability to innovate: to maintain an active pipeline of new ideas and bring them to market
     successfully.

     The most visible ICT 50 innovation leaders are found in two of the four groups: software
     and Internet companies, and hardware and infrastructure companies. These groups
     typically spend a considerable portion of their revenues on research and development,




10                                                                                 Booz & Company
and even those that spend well below their group average, most notably Apple, tend to
     spend their innovation dollars wisely. In addition to investing in its traditional devices
     and components business, Fujitsu spends almost half of its $2.8 billion R&D budget on
     IT products, solutions, and services. And Xerox has invested considerable funds in its
     Computing and Information Services Laboratory, where it investigates scalable computing
     for business process solutions and big data analytics.

     By contrast, most of the IT service providers do not have the margins needed to invest
     in R&D at high rates, and (with the notable exception of IBM) their innovation takes
     a more modest form. They see themselves as integrators, continually researching ways
     to link the products and services produced by other companies. As for the telecom
     operators, they continue to spend much of their funds on recurring infrastructure and
     network upgrade commitments, limiting the amount of capital available to innovate in
     more value-added services.

     The growth potential score also reflects each company’s ability to enter new markets —
     both within established geographies (such as selling to small and midsized enterprises
     or governments) and in new regions. Notwithstanding their current importance to the
     go-to-market footprint score, the five most highly developed ICT markets grew just 1
     percent on average over the past three years, and their long-term growth prospects are
     not particularly strong. The BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), on the other
     hand, currently account for only $186 billion in ICT sales, but they grew 13 percent on
     average per year from 2009 to 2011. By 2020, the BRICs will be markets in which every
     ICT player must operate.



     PREDICTIONS AND PRESCRIPTIONS

     For companies buying ICT services, the convergence of the ICT 50 promises to be
     very exciting. As they compete across boundaries, winners will emerge that are more
     innovative, more responsive to customers, and better able to deliver more at lower costs.
     But how should the different groups position themselves?

     In general, the hardware and infrastructure companies have demonstrated relatively
     strong financial performance, with a well-developed go-to-market footprint and robust
     growth potential. Their greatest priority should be finding a business model that works
     for them and increasing their portfolio strength. Much will depend on how well these
     players capitalize on the next generation of on-demand services. They will be the
     providers of the underlying infrastructure that enables real-time computing, in-memory
     processing, and more; they will also need to forge differentiated, profitable offerings
     by acquiring or partnering with connectivity and network providers. Apple is currently
     developing a closely guarded closed-service ecosystem, but other, more open system
     approaches may also be viable. New types of challengers, such as Amazon, will probably
     enter the ICT 50 soon; Amazon’s Web services business is built on a highly flexible,
     scalable data center and computing infrastructure.

     The telecom operators boast consistently high financial performance and a strong
     portfolio of critical communications products and services, but their core business is
     maturing and faces commoditization. To sidestep this, they must expand their go-to-
     market footprint through acquisitions or strategic partnerships, push for operational
     excellence and efficiency within the constraints imposed by physical network assets and
     local regulation, and develop a truly differentiating portfolio of services that will take
     them beyond their traditional telecom offerings. Some companies, notably Verizon and




11                                                                               Booz & Company
NTT, with their strong cloud offerings, are beginning to make these moves. But after
     paying for the next generation of network infrastructure, they have limited funds for
     further innovation and their growth potential is constrained. They may seek additional
     partnerships or mergers as a vehicle for growth.

     The strength of the IT service providers varies, depending on their size, financial
     performance, and go-to-market footprint. In the short term, consolidation within this
     category will continue — as demonstrated by CGI’s recent acquisition of Logica. Market
     share and scale alone, however, will not differentiate these companies or guarantee
     profitability; the firms will need to bolster their growth potential through innovation
     and stand their ground in competition against the other ICT 50 categories. The changing
     nature of system integration will keenly affect them; as custom-integrated enterprise
     software solutions lose ground to prepackaged cloud-based solutions and as software
     players absorb some of the traditional system integration business, IT service providers
     will need to build portfolio strength by developing their integration capabilities.

     Many offshore IT service companies are already moving in this direction. They are using
     their industrialized delivery capabilities and low-labor-cost advantages to compete against
     such global players as IBM, Accenture, and HP. They will seek aggressive expansion into
     the lucrative markets of mature economies; the challenge for them will be to do so while
     remaining true to their low-cost, offshore roots.

     Finally, the software and Internet companies on the ICT 50 are financially sound and
     highly innovative, with generally strong portfolios and a great deal of growth potential.
     They should expand, but only into areas that differentiate them. Microsoft, Oracle, and
     SAP are in a strong position today, and they are working hard to stay there. But “digital
     native” players are pushing aggressively into the arena, especially in cloud computing and
     social media. Expect digital-centric players such as Google to move up in the software
     ranks, and look for more cloud-based software companies to follow older firms like
     Salesforce.com into prominence.

     In most industries, it takes a long time for companies to change the way they operate.
     But many members of the ICT 50 have already shown themselves to be fast-moving
     and flexible. Next year, when we look at the industry, we suspect that much will have
     changed; we may well see 10 newcomers among the ICT 50. But the biggest winners
     will undoubtedly be those that, like Microsoft, Oracle, and IBM (this year’s top three),
     combine flexibility with a distinctive core identity that no one else can duplicate.




12                                                                              Booz & Company
51%




                                             36%
     32%

                        Methodology                                             23%

                         For this study, we analyzed the 50 largest publicly traded companies in the ICT
                                                           13%                             12%
                         supplier industries on four measures: financial performance, portfolio strength, go-
              7%         to-market footprint, and growth potential. (See Exhibit A.) Our analysis was based
                         on a combination of publicly available financial data and a qualitative assessment
           Unskilled     of the capabilities of each player, conducted by a panel of Booz & Company ICT
                          Skilled                                                       Customer
           Production    sector experts. In making this assessment, we used a set of clearly defined criteria
                        Production                                                       Service
                         to investigate the relative strength and strategic positioning of each company
                         in each of the four dimensions. Consolidated scores for each company were
                         determined on a scale from 0 to 4. Events that became public knowledge after April
                         2012 — such as CGI’s announcement of its plans to acquire Logica — occurred                        Guide
                         after we collected the data for the 2012 Global ICT 50 study and are thus not                      11.0 m
                         reflected in the results.
                                                                                                                            aölkdfö

                        Exhibit A                                                                                           32.8%
                        Components of the ICT 50 Ranking
                                                                                                                             30.1%

                                                         ICT 50 BALANCED SCORECARD
                                                                                                                             TABL
                                                          Financial Performance       25%
                                                          a. Profitability (50%)                                            A4 form
                                                          b. Growth (30%)                                                   - width
                                                          c. Investment capability (20%)                                    - width

                                                                                                                            Letter f
                                                                                                                            - width
                                                                                                                            - width

                            Go-to-Market Footprint 25%                                      Portfolio Strength       25%
                                                                                                                            Lines:
                            a. Sales and delivery                                           a. Classic products and         Lines f
                               capability in top five                                          services(40%)
                               mature markets (50%)                                         b. Next-generation products
                            b. Offshore capacity (30%)                                         and services (20%)           Note:
                            c. Follow-the-sun delivery                                      c. Horizontal digitization          ase
                                                                                                                                ase
                                                                                                                            Please
                               capability (20%)                                                capabilities (20%)                erw
                                                                                                                                 erw
                                                                                                                            otherw w
                                                                                            d. Vertical digitization        file.
                                                                                               capabilities (20%)           These
                                                          Future Growth Potential 25%                                       Appro
                                                          a. Strong innovation spending
                                                             (50%)
                                                          b. Growth in BRIC markets
                                                             (30%)
                                                          c. Presence in new market
                                                             segments (20%)




                        Source: Booz & Company




13                                                                                                         Booz & Company
Booz & Company is a leading global management con-
sulting firm focused on serving and shaping the senior
agenda of the world’s leading institutions. Our founder,
Edwin Booz, launched the profession when he estab-
lished the first management consulting firm in Chicago
in 1914. Today, we operate globally with more than
3,000 people in 60 offices around the world.

We believe passionately that essential advantage lies
within and that a few differentiating capabilities drive
any organization’s identity and success. We work with
our clients to discover and build those strengths and
capture the market opportunities where they can earn
the right to win.

We are a firm of practical strategists known for our
functional expertise, industry foresight, and “sleeves
rolled up” approach to working with our clients. To
learn more about Booz & Company or to access its
thought leadership, visit booz.com. Our award-winning
management magazine, strategy+business, is available
at strategy-business.com.

                                                                        Contact Information

About the Authors                                                       Beirut                       Houston
                                                                        Bahajat El-Darwiche          Kenny Kurtzman
Olaf Acker is a partner with          Germar Schröder is a              Partner                      Partner
Booz & Company based in               principal in Booz & Company’s     +961-1-985-655               +1-713-650-4175
the firm’s Frankfurt and Dubai        Frankfurt office. He focuses on   bahjat.eldarwiche@booz.com   kenny.kurtzman@booz.com
offices. He focuses on business       communications clients and ICT
technology strategy and               service providers, and has led    Berlin/New York              New Delhi
operating model transformation        several initiatives for product   Dr. Florian Gröne            Suvojoy Sengupta
programs for global companies         development, go-to-market,        Principal                    Partner
in the telecommunications,            and operating model design,       +49-30-88705-844             +91-124-499-8700
media, and high-tech industries.      specifically for the cloud.       florian.groene@booz.com      suvojoy.sengupta@booz.com

Florian Gröne is a principal          Hans Geerdes is a senior          Düsseldorf/Stockholm         Paris
with Booz & Company based             associate with Booz & Company     Dr. Roman Friedrich          Pierre Péladeau
in Berlin and New York. He            in Berlin. He specializes in      Partner                      Partner
heads the firm’s CRM Center           IT strategy and large-scale       +49-211-3890-165             +33-1-44-34-3074
of Excellence in Europe, and          transformation, with a focus on   roman.friedrich@booz.com     pierre.peladeau@booz.com
works with telecom, IT services,      the communications industry.
and other technology-driven                                             Frankfurt
companies on their path to                                              Olaf Acker
digitization.                                                           Partner
                                                                        +49-69-97167-453
                                                                        olaf.acker@booz.com

                                                                        Dr. Germar Schröder
                                                                        Principal
Also contributing to this article was contributing writer               +49-69-97167-426
Edward H. Baker.                                                        germar.schroeder@booz.com




©2012 Booz & Company Inc.                                                                                        Booz & Company

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The Global ICT 50: The Supply Side of Digitization

  • 1. Briefing Olaf Acker Florian Gröne Germar Schröder Hans Geerdes The Global ICT 50 The Supply Side of Digitization
  • 2. Driven by a combination of consumer demand and the development of new information and communications technology (ICT), the world is rapidly transforming. This process has been happening since the arrival of the computer 60 years ago, but in the past few years it has accelerated, altering everyday life in unprecedented ways. A society with ubiquitous handheld devices, pervasive sensing apparatus, “big data” analytics, digital supply chains, search engines, social networks, satellite-based geographic tracking, interconnected real-time digital infrastructure, and massive server farms is arguably as different from the 1980s as 1950, with ubiquitous electricity, automobiles, and broadcast radio, was from 1850. We call this shift digitization. It is being driven in part by the companies that make use of digital infrastructure and in part by consumers around the world. The enterprise market for online IT and digital telecom is booming — corporate sales worldwide grew 6 percent annually in 2010 and 2011 — while the market for consumer-oriented devices and services (including cloud-based online IT services) grew even more rapidly. At the forefront of change is Generation C, people born after 1990 who expect to be connected to everyone, everywhere, at home and at work. As members of this group come of age, moving into managerial ranks or starting their own businesses, the tools and habits of digitization will become second nature. One might expect that because society is increasingly dependent on digital products and services, the producers of digitization would be affluent, assured of success, and complacent. But their industry is undergoing a parallel transformation, and it is not clear how many companies will last in their current form. The traditional sectors of the ICT ecosystem — a multi-trillion-dollar industry whose members include enterprise service providers, hardware producers, telecom companies, and software developers (including the purveyors of Internet services and social media) — are blurring and converging. For example, telecom, hardware, and software companies are moving into IT services. Offshore IT service providers are developing enterprise software, often in the form of low-cost, highly standardized systems delivered over the Internet, designed to take over large portions of the work of traditional corporate IT departments. The industry is also being invaded by a host of hungry, innovative new Internet players, who offer innovative Web-based solutions that bypass the systems of the past. In this context, even the wealthiest, most successful ICT providers, like Microsoft in the 1990s, Google in the 2000s, and Apple today, cannot be certain of sustaining their success. The title of the first book by former Intel CEO Andrew Grove — Only the Paranoid Survive — has never seemed so telling a comment on this industry. How will the process of digitization play out? How will it affect the companies vying to supply these technologies, particularly in the business-to-business domain? The answers are critically important to decision makers in any company, no matter its industry. The choice of ICT goods and services is a critical strategic factor: It deeply influences the quality and distinctiveness of a company’s capabilities. That choice, in turn, depends on a clear assessment of the future of these providers. It is all too easy to get locked into a technology system that will not be sustained in the marketplace. At a more exalted level, the leading digitization providers are among the most influential companies of our time, and their influence is increasing. Their digital channels shape the patterns of behavior for all other businesses and, indeed, for a great deal of human interaction. 2 Booz & Company
  • 3. Finally, these companies are a fascinating group in their own right. Some, like Hewlett- Packard (HP) and IBM, have existed for many decades, continually reinventing themselves; others are relative newcomers. Each, in its own way, has mastered innovation and struggled with disruption. Their story is our story. ANATOMY OF THE ICT 50 In early 2012, a group of Booz & Company researchers evaluated the 50 largest publicly traded global suppliers of information and communications technology products and services to enterprise: the “Global ICT 50.” We assessed how well they are doing now and how prepared they are for the changes that lie ahead, and then we ranked them according to their enterprise relevance: their potential importance to company value chains, in the present and the near future. Four qualities come together to make up this score: • Financial performance: Which companies can best sustain the profitability needed to make the investments that will help them win the digitization race? • Portfolio strength: Which companies possess the best mix of business-to-business prod- ucts and services, given the demands of digitization? • Go-to-market footprint: Which companies have established sales and delivery capabili- ties in the top markets for ICT? • Growth potential: Which companies have the three factors needed today for expansion in this industry: prowess in innovation, presence in emerging economies, and the ability to attract new customers? With assessments of these four qualities based on publicly available information, we ranked the trajectory of performance for the leading companies in the four main sectors in this industry. 1. Hardware and infrastructure companies: This sector, which includes Apple, Hewlett- Packard, Dell, Cisco Systems, and Xerox, has traditionally been the core of the technology industry. Although their hardware systems have often been complementary (Cisco produces the routers that connect HP’s printers to Apple’s tablets and Dell’s computers), these companies have long been perceived as being in the same business. Now they are striving to build more differentiated businesses, branching out into soft- ware and services, while retaining core businesses built around ever more powerful and affordable equipment. 2. Software and Internet companies: This group includes Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and SAP, and it is positioned to do well in a highly digitized world. Some of these compa- nies are very large, giving them the strength to compete successfully in digitization (and in many cases, as with Microsoft and Google, to branch out into hardware). Others are smaller, but focused and capitalized enough to lead the industry. The small play- ers’ products tend to be specialized or sufficiently distinctive, giving them relatively protected platforms from which to expand. 3. IT service providers: Having established themselves over the past 30 years as technol- ogy concierges to large- and medium-scale enterprises, these companies offer a variety of services: hosting computers and networks, managing computer applications such as databases, and integrating hardware and software. This category has three subgroups, 3 Booz & Company
  • 4. Growing Customer Sophistication gnment Strate New Market Emergence Distortions Regulations each with its own business dynamic. The first is global companies, such as IBM, Accenture, and CSC. They have parlayed their scale into industry leadership positions. Regional service providers, such as Atos in France, Logica in the U.K., and Unisys in the U.S., face a more challenging future. Some are using M&A to increase their scale 51% and market share; for example, Atos bought Siemens IT Solutions and Services in 2011, to create what the announcement called a “European IT champion.” The third subgroup consists of offshore IT service providers based in India, including HCL, 36% 32% Infosys, and Wipro. Starting from a relatively low base, these companies have shown the strongest growth of all the ICT 50 in recent years — more than 15 percent annu- 23% ally, even through the global economic downturn. 13% 12% 4. Telecom operators: Hundreds of companies bring telecommunications — a combina- 7% tion of mobile, landline, Internet, and television — to homes and offices around the world. The most prominent include NTT, Telefónica/O2, and Verizon. This group faces the largest challenge of the four: Many companies still have significant amounts of cash Unskilled Skilled Sales Customer Production on hand, but much of it is being consumed by ongoing investments in network infra- Production Service structure and in dividend commitments. And not all of them are funneling investment into innovation and new capabilities, such as IT services. Each of these groups has its own combination of qualities, with different competitive strengths and weaknesses. (See Exhibit 1.) Despite their differences, all the members of Guid the ICT 50 have one thing in common: They share a context that has shifted markedly 11.0 during the past few years, and not just because of the global economic downturn. Earlier aölkd waves of information and communications technology, during which businesses fulfilled their basic needs for connectivity and computing power, have effectively run their course. 32.8 The two critical infrastructure elements required for digital media — computer power 30. Exhibit 1 ICT 50 Groups and Their Strengths TAB A4 fo DIMENSIONAL PERFORMANCE BY PLAYER CLUSTER - wid - wid 1 Financial Performance Lette - wid - wid Lines Lines Hardware and Infrastructure Companies Note Telecom Operators Plea 3 2 othe Sales & Portfolio file. Strength IT Service Providers Thes Delivery Software and Internet Companies App 4 Innovation Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study 4 Booz & Company
  • 5. and ubiquitous Internet access — were established in the 1990s, were rolled out across the world in the 2000s, and are now commodities throughout most industries. The most recent wave of digitization began around the time the iPhone was introduced 51% (in 2007), and has picked up speed since 2010. With the basic infrastructure in place, both businesses and consumers are demanding more from software and services. The mobile handheld device has become an all-purpose digital gateway; employees 36% 32% increasingly demand the right to bring their own devices to work, along with greater flexibility to mix their personal and working lives, and the continued expansion of 23% their personal and social networks. As digitization takes hold, the boundaries between departments — and between companies — become looser and more permeable than they 13% 12% have ever been before. Supply chains integrate using cloud-based applications; marketers 7% aggregate data from online sources, including social media. In all of these ways, and more, sophisticated new services have rapidly and offhandedly moved into the business world, where they are disrupting the ICT market. Overall Unskilled Skilled Engineers HR/IT/F&A Sales Customer Production Production Service The changing nature of the demand for ICT products and services helps explain why the supply side of digitization is in flux — with more volatility than at any time since the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The Global ICT 50 was designed to provide an analytical portrait of that volatility. To our knowledge, it is the first study to examine enterprise relevance for all four sectors together. If some of the rankings seem counterintuitive, that’s because the business-to-business emphasis leads to very different assessments from those of the typical technology press. For example, Apple, with its notable success and high market capitalization, is ranked below HP and Cisco Systems. Google is not even included in the top 10. (See Exhibit 2.) Apple and Google are both remarkable, extraordinarily capable companies, but their impact on corporate ICT purchasing remains relatively low, no matter how many iPads or search engine advertisements are sold. If you are a CIO or an ICT decision maker, designing your company’s approach to digitization, the companies at the top of each category are the ones you need to pay attention to. (See Exhibit 3, page 6.) Exhibit 2 The Top 10 Members of the ICT 50 by Overall Score Company Score 1 Microsoft 2.88 2 Oracle 2.85 3 IBM 2.82 4 Hewlett-Packard 2.59 5 Cisco Systems 2.53 6 Apple 2.42 7 SAP 2.40 8 Xerox 2.39 9 Accenture 2.38 10 CSC 2.20 Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study 5 Booz & Company
  • 6. aölkd 32.8% 30.1 Exhibit 3 The Global ICT 50 by Category TAB Hardware and Infrastructure Companies Software and Internet Companies A4 fo - widt Company Revenue Company Revenue - widt Hewlett-Packard 127.2 Microsoft 69.9 Apple 108.2 Oracle 35.6 Letter - widt Samsung 99.8 Google 29.3 - widt Dell 61.5 SAP 16.7 Fujitsu 55.5 Yahoo 6.3 Lines Cisco Systems 43.2 Symantec 6.2 Lines NEC 38.2 Intuit 3.9 Ericsson 30.4 Adobe 3.8 Note: Xerox 21.6 Amdocs 3.2 Pleas Alcatel Lucent 21.4 Convergys 2.2 other file. These IT Service Providers Telecom Operators Company Revenue Company Revenue Appr IBM (Global) 99.9 NTT 128.3 Accenture (Global) 27.4 AT&T 124.3 CSC (Global) 16.0 Verizon 106.6 Capgemini (Global) 11.6 Deutsche Telekom 83.5 CGI (Regional) 11.6 Telefónica 81.2 First Data (Global) 10.4 Vodafone 71.1 Tata Consultancy Services France Telecom 60.9 8.4 (TCS) (Offshore) KDDI 42.1 Hitachi (Regional) 8.0 British Telecom 31.1 Wipro (Offshore) 7.0 KPN 17.8 Atos (Regional) 6.7 Infosys (Offshore) 6.2 Logica (Regional) 5.7 Cognizant (Regional) 4.6 Capita (Regional) 4.3 Unisys (Regional) 4.0 IT Holdings (Regional) 4.0 HCL (Offshore) 3.5 Indra (Regional) 3.4 Steria (Regional) 2.3 Tieto (Regional) 2.3 Note: Revenue is in US$ billions. IT Service Providers are divided into three subgroups: Global companies have a balanced presence in all major regions; regional providers are limited in geographic scope; and offshore firms are based in emerging, low-labor-cost markets such as India. Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Where financial performance is concerned, the ICT 50 analysis confirms that one prevail- ing assumption of the past decade — “service rules” — no longer holds true. None of the top five financial performers were IT service providers or telecom operators. The software and Internet companies Microsoft, Google, and Oracle had the greatest overall financial health, followed by the hardware and infrastructure companies Apple and Cisco Systems. The hardware and infrastructure group experienced a slump during the economic downturn, but it has recovered since 2010, with three-year revenue growth of more than 11 percent. Margins, however, are comparatively low, at just 12 percent on average, and these companies face tremendous pressure as digitization expands. This pressure was 6 Booz & Company
  • 7. Production and Supply Network Delivery Customer & Retail Corporate/Shared Service Disruption in Commodity Markets Capability Alignment Strategic Coherence highlighted in May 2012, when Hewlett-Packard announced it would cut more than Disruptive Technologies 7 percent of Next-Generation Infrastructure the savings in cloud-based businesses. its workforce and reinvest Growing Customer Sophistication As a whole, the software companies have the most enviable financial performance, for New Market Emergence the moment. They have seen overall three-year revenue growth of more than 10 percent, and their marginsDistortions been higher than 30 percent — higher than those of any have long Regulations other group. But they may soon face global rivals among the offshore service providers, who have by far the fastest growth rate and impressive EBIT margins of more than 20 percent, on average. Global service providers are also doing well; they maintain margins around 15 percent, 51% and IBM generates more than US$15 billion in free cash flow each year. Regional service providers are in a more daunting position: With only mild revenue growth in the last two years, and margins 36% 5 to 8 percent range, they may soon find themselves with little in the 32% room to maneuver. Telecom companies are also stressed financially, but for a different reason: Comparatively stable and with relatively high earnings, they find that their growth has leveled off since the financial crisis of 2008 and shows no sign of renewed 23% liftoff. (See Exhibit 4.) 13% 12% 7% PORTFOLIO STRENGTH Unskilled In Skilled the past, each group of ICT suppliers stayed well within theirCustomer guarded Sales closely Production Production Service sector boundaries. Software companies sold software, and telecom operators built communications networks and sold phone services. The four groups are still distinct, but not necessarily for long. Both traditional and nontraditional ICT companies are consolidating, seeking to build integrated ecosystems that cut across established business models and help them manage convergence. Gui 11.0 The pattern of mergers and acquisitions provides a tangible clue to the direction in which companies are moving. In 2009, hardware company Xerox acquired Affiliated Computer aölk Services, a business process outsourcing firm, thereby accelerating Xerox’s shift to IT 32.8 services. Dell bought IT services provider Perot Systems the same year, with similar 30 Exhibit 4 Financial Trends for the ICT 50 since 2007 TA FINANCIAL INDICATORS BY PLAYER CATEGORY A4 f REPORTED IN 2007–2011/LAST FIVE FISCAL YEARS - wid - wid Revenue Ø EBIT Lett (2007=100) Five-Year CAGR: Margin (%) - wid Software and - wid 210 20% IT Services 35 34 Internet (Offshore) Companies 200 Not adjusted 190 for M&A 30 Software and Line 180 Line 12% Internet 25 23 IT Services 170 Companies (Offshore) 160 Hardware and 20 17 Telecom 9% Infrastructure Operators Note 150 Companies Plea 140 IT Services 15 15 IT Services 6% (Regional) (Global) othe 130 10 file. 120 Hardware and Telecom 6% Operators 12 Infrastructure The 110 5 Companies 100 3% IT Services App (Global) IT Services 90 0 8 (Regional) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study 7 Booz & Company
  • 8. nment Strat New Market Emergence Distortions Regulations intent. Other acquisitions, like Oracle’s 2010 purchase of Sun Microsystems, represent moves toward more complete software integration (adding a little hardware to the mix as well). These types of consolidations allow software companies, which were formerly 51% concentrated on specific applications, to internalize larger parts of systems integrators’ traditional home turf and hold the line against IT service providers. 36% 32% Launches of new products and services also frequently represent moves across sector boundaries. (See Exhibit 5.) Some telecom operators seek a foothold in cloud computing and IT services; Verizon’s cloud-based infrastructure-as-a-service offering is one example, 23% as is KPN, which provides application management services to its customers. Software and Internet companies are also innovating across boundaries, albeit more selectively. 13% 12% Yahoo, for example, offers comprehensive Web hosting but has stayed out of data center 7% services and desktop operations. Unskilled TheSkilled companies most likely to cross boundaries are Sales service Customer the IT providers. IBM, for Software and Production Production Service example, offers its Sametime Unified Telephony service, which includes telephony features Internet companies players expand for users and multi-PBX telephony integration for telephony managers, and CSC offersof IT selectively Some effort service providers move Unified Communications as a Service as well as My Conference Space, an integrated services into telecom Hardware and infrastructure audio and Web conferencing solution. companies and telecom operators Gu Besides this ability to manage convergence, the score reflects the ability to provide next- 11 generation products and services. Many companies are blending traditional offerings with new technologies such as highly specialized services, including radio frequency aö identification solutions for retail, near-field communications solutions, cloud computing 32 3 Exhibit 5 Portfolio Expansion Activities in the ICT 50 T PORTFOLIO FOCUS BY TYPE OF PLAYER A4 -w Hardware & Software Telecom IT Services Business Services Digitization -w Services t t ns en en Le tio t pm pm e en n ar t ra io -w gm pm lo ui ftw n at pe io ve Eq bi tio l gr M pa iza ta So ui -w O at liti n liti n es ng ity De te Ca igit izon Eq bi tio pa iza l n g ic es V s Ca git ca g ce d tiv ic io In tin ci e tin un e ge Di erti rv k la at ur ec D r g ar pu em Ho or ul m Se kp in ic ka so ftw nn ns tw m m st pl st or c ut DC Ho Co Co Co Co Ne Ap So Pa Sy W Lin O Hardware and Lin Infrastructure Companies No Telecom Operators Ple oth IT Service file Providers Th (Global) IT Service Ap Providers (Regional) IT Service Providers (Offshore) Software and Internet Companies Strong offering Traditional main revenue source New areas of activity Weak offering Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study 8 Booz & Company
  • 9. 51% 36% 32% and mobile payment platform support. Unfortunately, the profits and growth expected 23% from next-generation offerings have not yet materialized. Most companies still earn more from classic ICT products and services; the next few years will tell how rapidly their 13% customers will shift to next-generation technologies. 12% 7% Two other capabilities figure in the score for portfolio strength. First is the development of horizontal digital offerings for particular functions. Companies in the ICT 50 offer Unskilled Skilled Sales Customer Production such specialized services as customer analytics, digital marketing, campaign management, Production Service billing services, sales-force automation, social network integration, supply chain logistics, and e-procurement to company after company. Second is the provision of vertical offerings: tailored, industry-specific technological solutions that work across functions. Current examples include outsourced network management for telecom; clinical information systems, digital health monitoring, and homecare products for healthcare Gu companies; and smart metering systems for utilities. In both the horizontal and vertical 11 cases, the key value proposition appears to be integration; large companies are looking aö for ICT providers that can weave many diverse services around a coherent, focused, interoperable core. 32 Some might assume that the industry is moving toward a consolidated group of 3 comprehensive “one-stop” ICT companies with diversified portfolios. In three categories out of four, however, the results suggest otherwise: Companies with higher levels of coherence, applying the same capabilities to all of their offerings, have higher levels of T growth and profitability than more diversified companies. The exception, at least to A4 date, is IT service providers; that may change as their category converges and matures. -w (See Exhibit 6.) -w Le -w -w Exhibit 6 Lin Portfolio Completeness and Financial Performance Lin GROWTH PROFITABILITY No Ple Revenue EBIT oth Growth Margin file Th Ap Apple Google Xerox IT Services IBM IT Services All Players All Players SAP HP Capita Tieto Diversification Diversification (Classic Products and Services) (Classic Products and Services) Source: Booz & Company ICT 50 study 9 Booz & Company
  • 10. GO-TO-MARKET FOOTPRINT Having sales and delivering capabilities in the top markets is often overlooked by commentators, but it is critical to the success of any ICT company with global aspirations. That’s especially evident in the five most highly developed ICT markets — the U.S., the U.K., Japan, Germany, and France. These countries saw combined sales of $1.2 trillion in 2011, more than 60 percent of total global sales of ICT services. A strong sales and delivery capability in these markets certifies the ability of ICT players to satisfy the needs of the largest corporations. And these markets offer a source of revenue and a profit pool that is too big to be ignored. The offshore IT service providers are pushing hard to establish a foothold in these markets, which have not been their natural operating environment in the past. Tata Consultancy Services already has more than 600 employees in Germany alone. We expect to see more aggressive investment and acquisition activities by these companies, which will increasingly compete (or form strategic partnerships) with regional IT service providers. The go-to-market footprint score also takes into account the ability to manage production facilities around the world, drawing on inexpensive labor, as well as “follow- the-sun” delivery (where a project is handed off daily from one time zone to another, thus providing 24-hour scheduling). This type of global production is particularly challenging for many telecom operators. They are bound to their local markets by their existing infrastructure investments, which severely limits the efficiencies they can gain in other locations, and by the inherent complexity of combining offshore and onshore operations. Telecom companies also face more regulatory restrictions than the other groups. This explains a striking correlation in the data for telecom operators: The more offshore activity they engage in, the less profitable they are. The opposite is true for IT service providers. The more their operations move offshore, the higher their profitability. Regional IT service providers may feel some disadvantage; they lack the capabilities and capital to break into emerging markets. But the offshore providers are already familiar with many emerging markets, and they have been able to realize savings from lower workforce costs. Global providers also do well on this score; they have established successful production facilities (and the requisite talent practices to staff them) around the globe. Companies such as IBM, with delivery centers worldwide, and Capgemini, whose workforce is distributed in 40 countries, are significantly more profitable than those whose production takes place primarily in high-wage countries. (We saw little or no correlation effect with the other two groups, presumably because hardware and infrastructure companies, and their software and Internet counterparts, have more flexible geographic and labor requirements.) GROWTH POTENTIAL For a digitization provider, the prospects for growth are as important as current-day financial performance. The growth potential score is heavily weighted by each company’s ability to innovate: to maintain an active pipeline of new ideas and bring them to market successfully. The most visible ICT 50 innovation leaders are found in two of the four groups: software and Internet companies, and hardware and infrastructure companies. These groups typically spend a considerable portion of their revenues on research and development, 10 Booz & Company
  • 11. and even those that spend well below their group average, most notably Apple, tend to spend their innovation dollars wisely. In addition to investing in its traditional devices and components business, Fujitsu spends almost half of its $2.8 billion R&D budget on IT products, solutions, and services. And Xerox has invested considerable funds in its Computing and Information Services Laboratory, where it investigates scalable computing for business process solutions and big data analytics. By contrast, most of the IT service providers do not have the margins needed to invest in R&D at high rates, and (with the notable exception of IBM) their innovation takes a more modest form. They see themselves as integrators, continually researching ways to link the products and services produced by other companies. As for the telecom operators, they continue to spend much of their funds on recurring infrastructure and network upgrade commitments, limiting the amount of capital available to innovate in more value-added services. The growth potential score also reflects each company’s ability to enter new markets — both within established geographies (such as selling to small and midsized enterprises or governments) and in new regions. Notwithstanding their current importance to the go-to-market footprint score, the five most highly developed ICT markets grew just 1 percent on average over the past three years, and their long-term growth prospects are not particularly strong. The BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), on the other hand, currently account for only $186 billion in ICT sales, but they grew 13 percent on average per year from 2009 to 2011. By 2020, the BRICs will be markets in which every ICT player must operate. PREDICTIONS AND PRESCRIPTIONS For companies buying ICT services, the convergence of the ICT 50 promises to be very exciting. As they compete across boundaries, winners will emerge that are more innovative, more responsive to customers, and better able to deliver more at lower costs. But how should the different groups position themselves? In general, the hardware and infrastructure companies have demonstrated relatively strong financial performance, with a well-developed go-to-market footprint and robust growth potential. Their greatest priority should be finding a business model that works for them and increasing their portfolio strength. Much will depend on how well these players capitalize on the next generation of on-demand services. They will be the providers of the underlying infrastructure that enables real-time computing, in-memory processing, and more; they will also need to forge differentiated, profitable offerings by acquiring or partnering with connectivity and network providers. Apple is currently developing a closely guarded closed-service ecosystem, but other, more open system approaches may also be viable. New types of challengers, such as Amazon, will probably enter the ICT 50 soon; Amazon’s Web services business is built on a highly flexible, scalable data center and computing infrastructure. The telecom operators boast consistently high financial performance and a strong portfolio of critical communications products and services, but their core business is maturing and faces commoditization. To sidestep this, they must expand their go-to- market footprint through acquisitions or strategic partnerships, push for operational excellence and efficiency within the constraints imposed by physical network assets and local regulation, and develop a truly differentiating portfolio of services that will take them beyond their traditional telecom offerings. Some companies, notably Verizon and 11 Booz & Company
  • 12. NTT, with their strong cloud offerings, are beginning to make these moves. But after paying for the next generation of network infrastructure, they have limited funds for further innovation and their growth potential is constrained. They may seek additional partnerships or mergers as a vehicle for growth. The strength of the IT service providers varies, depending on their size, financial performance, and go-to-market footprint. In the short term, consolidation within this category will continue — as demonstrated by CGI’s recent acquisition of Logica. Market share and scale alone, however, will not differentiate these companies or guarantee profitability; the firms will need to bolster their growth potential through innovation and stand their ground in competition against the other ICT 50 categories. The changing nature of system integration will keenly affect them; as custom-integrated enterprise software solutions lose ground to prepackaged cloud-based solutions and as software players absorb some of the traditional system integration business, IT service providers will need to build portfolio strength by developing their integration capabilities. Many offshore IT service companies are already moving in this direction. They are using their industrialized delivery capabilities and low-labor-cost advantages to compete against such global players as IBM, Accenture, and HP. They will seek aggressive expansion into the lucrative markets of mature economies; the challenge for them will be to do so while remaining true to their low-cost, offshore roots. Finally, the software and Internet companies on the ICT 50 are financially sound and highly innovative, with generally strong portfolios and a great deal of growth potential. They should expand, but only into areas that differentiate them. Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP are in a strong position today, and they are working hard to stay there. But “digital native” players are pushing aggressively into the arena, especially in cloud computing and social media. Expect digital-centric players such as Google to move up in the software ranks, and look for more cloud-based software companies to follow older firms like Salesforce.com into prominence. In most industries, it takes a long time for companies to change the way they operate. But many members of the ICT 50 have already shown themselves to be fast-moving and flexible. Next year, when we look at the industry, we suspect that much will have changed; we may well see 10 newcomers among the ICT 50. But the biggest winners will undoubtedly be those that, like Microsoft, Oracle, and IBM (this year’s top three), combine flexibility with a distinctive core identity that no one else can duplicate. 12 Booz & Company
  • 13. 51% 36% 32% Methodology 23% For this study, we analyzed the 50 largest publicly traded companies in the ICT 13% 12% supplier industries on four measures: financial performance, portfolio strength, go- 7% to-market footprint, and growth potential. (See Exhibit A.) Our analysis was based on a combination of publicly available financial data and a qualitative assessment Unskilled of the capabilities of each player, conducted by a panel of Booz & Company ICT Skilled Customer Production sector experts. In making this assessment, we used a set of clearly defined criteria Production Service to investigate the relative strength and strategic positioning of each company in each of the four dimensions. Consolidated scores for each company were determined on a scale from 0 to 4. Events that became public knowledge after April 2012 — such as CGI’s announcement of its plans to acquire Logica — occurred Guide after we collected the data for the 2012 Global ICT 50 study and are thus not 11.0 m reflected in the results. aölkdfö Exhibit A 32.8% Components of the ICT 50 Ranking 30.1% ICT 50 BALANCED SCORECARD TABL Financial Performance 25% a. Profitability (50%) A4 form b. Growth (30%) - width c. Investment capability (20%) - width Letter f - width - width Go-to-Market Footprint 25% Portfolio Strength 25% Lines: a. Sales and delivery a. Classic products and Lines f capability in top five services(40%) mature markets (50%) b. Next-generation products b. Offshore capacity (30%) and services (20%) Note: c. Follow-the-sun delivery c. Horizontal digitization ase ase Please capability (20%) capabilities (20%) erw erw otherw w d. Vertical digitization file. capabilities (20%) These Future Growth Potential 25% Appro a. Strong innovation spending (50%) b. Growth in BRIC markets (30%) c. Presence in new market segments (20%) Source: Booz & Company 13 Booz & Company
  • 14. Booz & Company is a leading global management con- sulting firm focused on serving and shaping the senior agenda of the world’s leading institutions. Our founder, Edwin Booz, launched the profession when he estab- lished the first management consulting firm in Chicago in 1914. Today, we operate globally with more than 3,000 people in 60 offices around the world. We believe passionately that essential advantage lies within and that a few differentiating capabilities drive any organization’s identity and success. We work with our clients to discover and build those strengths and capture the market opportunities where they can earn the right to win. We are a firm of practical strategists known for our functional expertise, industry foresight, and “sleeves rolled up” approach to working with our clients. To learn more about Booz & Company or to access its thought leadership, visit booz.com. Our award-winning management magazine, strategy+business, is available at strategy-business.com. Contact Information About the Authors Beirut Houston Bahajat El-Darwiche Kenny Kurtzman Olaf Acker is a partner with Germar Schröder is a Partner Partner Booz & Company based in principal in Booz & Company’s +961-1-985-655 +1-713-650-4175 the firm’s Frankfurt and Dubai Frankfurt office. He focuses on bahjat.eldarwiche@booz.com kenny.kurtzman@booz.com offices. He focuses on business communications clients and ICT technology strategy and service providers, and has led Berlin/New York New Delhi operating model transformation several initiatives for product Dr. Florian Gröne Suvojoy Sengupta programs for global companies development, go-to-market, Principal Partner in the telecommunications, and operating model design, +49-30-88705-844 +91-124-499-8700 media, and high-tech industries. specifically for the cloud. florian.groene@booz.com suvojoy.sengupta@booz.com Florian Gröne is a principal Hans Geerdes is a senior Düsseldorf/Stockholm Paris with Booz & Company based associate with Booz & Company Dr. Roman Friedrich Pierre Péladeau in Berlin and New York. He in Berlin. He specializes in Partner Partner heads the firm’s CRM Center IT strategy and large-scale +49-211-3890-165 +33-1-44-34-3074 of Excellence in Europe, and transformation, with a focus on roman.friedrich@booz.com pierre.peladeau@booz.com works with telecom, IT services, the communications industry. and other technology-driven Frankfurt companies on their path to Olaf Acker digitization. Partner +49-69-97167-453 olaf.acker@booz.com Dr. Germar Schröder Principal Also contributing to this article was contributing writer +49-69-97167-426 Edward H. Baker. germar.schroeder@booz.com ©2012 Booz & Company Inc. Booz & Company