All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDF
VNI Global (Andres Maz), Power Point
1. Cisco Visual Networking Index:
Internet Traffic Growth Forecast
Lucas Oloco, Director Service Provider
June 9 2014
9th Annual
Latin America Forecast Update 2013–2018
Andres Maz, Director Technology Policy
Internet viewing of the world cup could generate 1.3 Exabytes of Internet traffic. That’s almost as much traffic as traverses all of Brazil’s broadband connections in an entire month (1.4 Exabytes). Note: IPTV linear broadcast of the world cup games would likely generate an additional 3 exabytes.
Calculation:
82.5 million people watch the World Cup Final streamed via the Internet, at a bit rate of 22.5 MB/min, for 120 minutes -> 222.8 PB
8.3 million people watch the other World Cup games (on average) streamed via the Internet, at a bit rate of 22.5 MB/min, for 90 minutes of each of the remaining 63 games (5670 minutes total) à 1.1 EB
Note:
3.2 billion watched the last World Cup, 715 million for the finals alone. - http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/brazil-s-world-cup-marketers-dream-also-potential-nightmare-152890
Someday – everyday will like the World Cup final… the Super Bowl Sunday…
The VNI methodology, while admittedly conservative in some respects, has proven to be consistently accurate, generally in alignment with actual traffic growth statistics reported by other sources and individual service providers.
Here’s the top-line view…
LATAM IP traffic will increase 2.6-fold from 2013 to 2018. IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 percent during this period, reaching 9 exabytes per month by 2018, up from 3.47 exabytes per month in 2013.
In Latin America, IP traffic reached 3.5 Exabytes per month in 2013, up from 2.5 Exabytes per month in 2012.
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The sum of all forms of IP video (Internet video, IP VoD, video files exchanged through file sharing, video-streamed gaming, and videoconferencing) will continue to be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of total IP traffic. In Lat America, IP video traffic will account for 81 percent of traffic in 2018.
IP Video
In Latin America, IP video traffic will grow 3-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 28%.
In Latin America, IP video traffic will reach 7.2 Exabytes per month in 2018, up from 2.1 Exabytes per month in 2013.
In Latin America, IP video will be 81% of all IP traffic in 2018, up from 60% in 2013.
Internet Video
In Latin America, Internet video traffic will grow 3-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 27%.
In Latin America, Internet video traffic will reach 6.2 Exabytes per month in 2018, up from 1.9 Exabytes per month in 2013.
In Latin America, total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 79% of all Internet traffic in 2018, up from 59% in 2013.
Different devices consume different amounts of data
Note that traffic is growing at a much higher rate than the grow of users and Internet video viewers --- and what’s partially driving that is the fact that those users are migrating to devices that are much more bandwidth intensive
Globally, M2M modules will average 0.514 GB per month, up from 0.078 GB in 2013.
Globally, Smartphones will average 5.4 GB per month, up from 1.0 GB in 2013.
Globally, Tablets will average 18.0 GB per month, up from 4.0 GB in 2013.
Globally, PCs will average 39.2 GB per month, up from 22.7 GB in 2013.
Globally, Connected 4K TVs will average 26.3 GB per month, up from 22.9 GB in 2013.
Tablets will grow the fastest at 29% CAGR (3.6 fold) M2Ms will grow more than 3 fold during the forecast period at 26% CAGR to 7.3 billion connections by 2018. Smartphones will more than double at 18% CAGR to nearly 4 billion units by 2018. Connected TVs (that include Flat panel TVs, STBs, DMAs, Blu ray disc players and gaming consoles) will double (2.1 fold) to 2.6 billion.
PCs will decline -1% over the forecast period. There will be more tablets by the end of 2018 then laptops (848 million).
Other portables: This category includes e-readers, handheld gaming consoles, video conferencing systems, IP Phones, NAS, digital cameras and camcorders, digital photo frames,
Global IP traffic from non-PC devices was 33% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 57% of total IP traffic in 2018.
Globally, PCs accounted for 67% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 43% of IP traffic in 2018.
Globally, TVs accounted for 26% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 24% of IP traffic in 2018.
Globally, portable devices such as smartphones and tablets accounted for 6% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 31% of IP traffic in 2018.
Globally, M2M modules accounted for 0.4% of IP traffic in 2013, and will be 3% of IP traffic in 2018.
Other portables: This category includes e-readers, handheld gaming consoles, video conferencing systems, IP Phones, NAS, digital cameras and camcorders, digital photo frames,
Between 2012 and 2013 the highest growth happened on the internet side in Online video 16% growth. On TV side VoD grew 17% Digital TV and PVR grew 15%.
By 2018, Digital TV and Online Video will be the two most highly penetrated services (86% and 78% respectively). Fastest growth will come from Online Video (10%). Online Music and video are both driven by cloud based personal storage and sharing sites in addition to both copyrighted and user generated content use.
PVR services will grow at 9%.
"2012-13
YoY Growth" 2013 Penetration 2018 Penetration CAGR 2018
Res Internet Users 1,790,640,269 1,925,023,167 2,457,761,801 5.0% 0
Online Music 8.6% 46% 65% 7.1% 1,607,811,147
Social Networking 8.8% 52% 70% 6.0% 1,725,558,785
Online Video 15.7% 49% 78% 9.7% 1,912,227,373
Online Gaming 8.2% 46% 62% 6.3% 1,534,015,717
Res VoIP Users 8.2% 39% 49% 4.9% 1,215,604,962
Digital TV HH 15.5% 42% 86% 8.1% 1,517,120,405
VoD Subs 17.4% 12% 26% 8.1% 451,209,162
PVR Subs 14.6% 5% 11% 8.6% 197,738,278
Top online video sites by total minutes viewed:
Google Sites FC2 inc. Youku & Tudou Dwango Co., Ltd. LETV.COM IQIYI.COM TENCENT Inc. Facebook Sohu.com Inc. Yahoo Sites NETFLIX.COM (11th rank)
Between 2012 and 2013, the highest YoY growth was in Business LBS with a yoy growth of 47%, from 44m users to 65 million in 2013. Other significant YoY growth was in desktop video conferencing (44%)
Business LBS is use of LBS services by the users whose subscription is paid by the companies/ businesses they work for. As such it includes but is not limited to services such as mobile force management - sales force and field force automation, fleet management etc.
Lower growth in room based conferencing users. Single codec video conferencing systems grew but with the exception of LATAM all regions experienced a decline in executive conferencing systems and multi-codec systems. Because Multi-codec systems are typically fully managed, they are therefore expensive to keep. As unit sales drop, so does the network of units to connect to, therefore use drops off. Low use systems are decommissioned over time due to the high fixed cost of management.
From 2013-2018, the fastest growing business service is expected to be desktop or personal video conferencing . The growth of personal video conferencing has recently accelerated based on the quality and price of new services and products - specifically UC-base video, but also availability of desktop video conferencing offers which can be standalone or integrated. Also, the growth of mobile clients is going to help this growth. Use of Web Conferencing without video on the other hand will show a decline with -1% CAGR.
2012-13
YoY Growth 2013 Penetration 2018 Penetration 2013-18 CAGR 2018
Business Mobile SMS 10% 81% 92% 5% 536,405,600
Business Mobile Email 27% 25% 52% 18% 299,877,600
Room Based Conf Users 14% 7% 8% 8% 158,534,314
Business IP Telephony 14% 11% 12% 8% 243,975,860
Business Mobile LBS 47% 12% 34% 25% 196,733,300
Audio Conf 9% 5% 7% 14% 143,329,967
Desktop Video Conf 44% 2% 11% 45% 238,286,822
Web Conf w/o Video 8% 1% 1% -1% 16,945,108
Global Fixed/Wi-Fi was 41% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 49% of total IP traffic in 2018.
Global Fixed/Wired was 56% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 39% of total IP traffic in 2018.
Global Mobile was 3% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 12% of total IP traffic in 2018.
• Here’s a key milestone projection: By 2017, fixed/wi-fi traffic will surpass fixed/wired traffic.
This projection validates an important trend—network users don’t want to be tethered; there’s a preference for mobile networking when it’s available.
