Calpine Corporation reported financial results for 2007 with several improvements over 2006. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.4 billion in 2007 from $1 billion in 2006, driven by higher power prices and fleet performance. Interest expense decreased significantly due to debt reduction through Calpine's restructuring. Calpine continues to realize ongoing savings from its restructuring through overhead reductions, contract rejections, and non-core asset sales.
2. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The information contained in this presentation includes certain estimates, projections and other
forward-looking information that reflect Calpine’s current views with respect to future events and
financial performance. These estimates, projections and other forward-looking information are based
on assumptions that Calpine believes, as of the date hereof, are reasonable. Inevitably, there will be
differences between such estimates and actual results, and those differences may be material.
There can be no assurance that any estimates, projections or forward-looking information will be
realized.
All such estimates, projections and forward-looking information speak only as of the date hereof.
Calpine undertakes no duty to update or revise the information contained herein.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the estimates, projections and other forward-looking
information in this presentation as they are based on current expectations and general assumptions and
are subject to various risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those set forth in our Form 10-K
for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 and in other documents that we file with the SEC, many of
which are beyond our control, that may cause actual results to differ materially from the views, beliefs
and estimates expressed herein. Calpine’s reports and other information filed with the SEC, including
the risk factors identified in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, can
be found on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and on Calpine’s website at www.calpine.com..
The information contained in the presentation that relates to Calpine's operations for periods after the
year ended December 31, 2007 is taken from information that has previously been made public by
Calpine. We have not updated this information since it was last made public; therefore this
information should not be construed to provide, nor is it intended to provide, guidance for such
periods. Calpine has not determined what, if any, guidance it will provide in the future.
2
3. REG G DISCLAIMER
Calpine uses the non-GAAP financial measure “Commodity Margin” to assess its financial performance on a
consolidated basis and by its reportable segments. Commodity Margin includes its electricity and steam revenues,
hedging and optimization activities, renewable energy credit revenue, transmission revenue and expenses, and fuel
and purchased energy expenses, but excludes mark-to-market activity and other service revenues. Calpine believes
that Commodity Margin is a useful tool for assessing the performance of its core operations and is a key operational
measure reviewed by its chief operating decision maker. Commodity Margin is not a measure calculated in accordance
with GAAP, and should be viewed as a supplement to and not a substitute for Calpine’s results of operations presented
in accordance with GAAP. Commodity Margin does not purport to represent net income (loss), the most comparable
GAAP measure, as an indicator of operating performance and is not necessarily comparable to similarly-titled
measures reported by other companies.
In addition, Calpine management utilizes another non-GAAP financial measure, Adjusted EBITDA, as a measure of its
liquidity and performance. Calpine defines Adjusted EBITDA as EBITDA as adjusted for certain items described in this
presentation and in the accompanying reconciliation. Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure calculated in accordance with
GAAP, and should be viewed as a supplement to and not a substitute for our results of operations presented in
accordance with GAAP. Adjusted EBITDA does not purport to represent cash flow from operations or net income (loss)
as defined by GAAP as an indicator of operating performance. Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA is not necessarily
comparable to similarly-titled measures reported by other companies.
Calpine believes Adjusted EBITDA is used by and useful to investors and other users of our financial statements in
analyzing our liquidity as it is the basis for material covenants under our DIP Facility, which was our primary source of
financing during our Chapter 11 cases, and under our Exit Facility, which is our primary source of funding. Calpine also
believes that EBITDA is widely used by investors to measure a company’s operating performance without regard to
items such as interest expense, taxes, depreciation and amortization, which can vary substantially from company to
company depending upon accounting methods and book value of assets, capital structure and the method by which
assets were acquired.
3
4. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Calpine Overview
Robert P. May, Chief Executive Officer
Restructuring Overview
Gregory L. Doody, General Counsel and Secretary
Financial Overview
Lisa J. Donahue, Chief Financial Officer
Operations Overview
Power Operations: Michael D. Rogers
Commercial Operations: Todd W. Filsinger
Conclusion
Robert P. May, Chief Executive Officer
4
6. WHO ARE WE?
• Founded in 1984, Calpine is a major U.S. power company, currently operating nearly
24,000 megawatts (MW) of clean, cost-effective, reliable and fuel-efficient electric
generating capacity for customers and communities across four distinct regions in the U.S.
• Calpine is the nation’s largest natural gas, cogeneration, and renewable geothermal power
provider
North Region
West Region
10 Plants
43 Plants
2,822 MW
7,246 MW
Southeast Region
12 Plants
6,254 MW
Texas Region
12 Plants
Total
7,487 MW
77 Plants
23,809 MW
Note: Represents Calpine’s net ownership including peaking capacity.
6
7. CALPINE HAS CONSTRUCTED A MODERN FLEET
50
45
Weighted average age of plants
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
CPN DYN NRG RRI MIR
Source: SNL Financial.
• Most of Calpine’s peers were created by separating legacy electricity
generation assets from regulated utilities and acquisitions
7
8. CALPINE IS ONE OF THE GREENEST LARGE IPPs AND HAS
SIGNIFICANT SCALE
30,000
25,000
20,000
Other
Geothermal
15,000 Gas
(MWs)
Coal
Nuclear
10,000
5,000
–
NRG CPN DYN RRI MIR
Source: Company filings and SNL Financial.
• An investment in Calpine focuses on the growth potential in one of
the nation’s most environmentally friendly asset portfolios
8
9. CALPINE’S FLEET MINIMIZES MORE THAN JUST CARBON
Carbon Profile Calpine Gas Fleet Emissions Comparison
1.2
Air Pollutant Emission
CO2(tons) / MWh Generated
1.0
Rates Compared to Average
Air Pollutants U.S. Fossil-Fired Facility
0.8
Nitrogen Oxide, NOx 95.2% Less
Acid rain, smog and fine particulate formation
0.6
Sulfur Dioxide, SO2 99.9% Less
Acid rain and fine particulate formation
0.4
Mercury, Hg 100% Less
Neurotoxin
0.2
Carbon Dioxide, CO2 57.1% Less
Principal greenhouse gas-contributor to climate change
0.0
Source: Calpine Form 10-K.
CPN DYN NRG RRI MIR
Source: Credit Suisse research.
• Calpine is poised to benefit from pending legislation
• Calpine’s highly efficient, modern gas fleet consumes significantly less fuel to generate electricity
than older power generation facilities and emits much less air pollution compared to coal-fired or
conventional gas-fired facilities
• Calpine’s 725 MW geothermal fleet emits virtually no NOx, SO2, or CO2
9
10. MORE THAN JUST A COMMODITY PLAY
Capitalized to benefit all Risk management strategy
stakeholders enhances value
Streamlined management / Future development
operations opportunities
Diminishing reserve Increasing replacement
margins costs
Carbon legislation
creates value
Calpine is well positioned to benefit from several significant value drivers
10
11. CALPINE’S VISION STATEMENT
To be recognized as the leading power
company by providing clean, efficient and
reliable energy products and related services to
our customers and appropriate financial returns
to our stakeholders
11
13. CALPINE RESTRUCTURING CREATED GREATER FOCUS
AND EFFICIENCY
• Divested or turned-over twelve plants or businesses
Focus on Core
Markets and • Closed 19 non-core offices
Assets • Refocused development and construction activities
• Overall debt reduced by $7 billion and interest expense reduced by
~$600 million/yr
• Annual EBITDA increased by ~$485 million and gross profit by $471
Key
million between full year 2005 and 2007 (excluding impairments)
Restructuring
• Reduction of ~$180 million/yr of overhead costs and 1,100
Accomplishments
employees
• Rejected 25 leases and 273 executory contracts
• Improved monitoring and reporting capabilities
Streamlined
• Improved risk management organization
Organization
Restructuring significantly improved financial results, simplified the capital structure
and streamlined the organization
13
14. CALPINE’S IMPROVED POSITION
• Unified approach to corporate structure and business activities
with systemic method of decision making
More Focused
• More accountability to set and meet budgets / forecasts
Management
• More focused on cost side of profitability and maximizing value of
Philosophy
existing power plant portfolio
• Streamlined business model with clearly defined core operations
• Manageable approach to risk and leverage
• Hedging strategy employed for both power and natural gas
More Conservative
Capital Structure
• No significant non-project debt maturities until 2014
and Risk Profile
• ~$1.0 billion of liquidity at emergence
• Disciplined growth capabilities with focus on value creation
More Disciplined
• Established market presence to identify new potential growth
Growth and
opportunities
Development
• Experienced development team able to capitalize on market insight
Approach
14
15. SHARE DISTRIBUTION
• As of February 26, 2008 there were approximately 420 million shares outstanding
• The Plan of Reorganization allows for the potential issuance of up to 500 million
common shares
- Approximately 64 million shares are reserved for disputed unsecured
claims and general contingencies
- An additional 15 million are reserved for issuance under
Calpine’s Equity Incentive Programs
• The previous shareholders were issued 48.5 million warrants to purchase shares
at an exercise price of $23.88 / share, which expire on August 25, 2008
15
18. 2007 PRIMARY DRIVERS AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Commodity Margin increased 10% from 2006 to 2007
Improved power
• Average realized electricity price increased from $63.02 to $67.90 / MWh
markets
• Improved credit support and market access contributed to additional long-
term hedging and lower transaction costs
• Capacity factor (excluding peakers) rose from 39.2% to 46.6% due to
Fleet Performance increased demand in most of Calpine’s markets
• Decreased forced outages and recordable industry rates
• Improved starting reliability
• SG&A expense decreased from $240 million in 2005 to $146 million in 2007
Overhead primarily due to the reduction in workforce, lower facility costs and lower
Reductions legal fees not related to our reorganization
• Savings resulting from the rejection and renegotiation of leases / executory
Asset / Contract contracts and divestiture of non-core assets
•
Enhanced Improved origination of non-standard power sales to load serving entities
• More REC and RA contribution
• Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1,412 million from $1,029 million in 2006
18
19. 2007 FINANCIAL RESULTS
($ in millions)
December 31,
2007 2006 2005
Operating revenues $7,970 $6,937 $10,302
less: Fuel and purchased energy expenses (5,683) (4,752) (8,318)
less: Mark-to-market activity, net(1) and other service revenues (62) (164) (154)
Consolidated Commodity Margin 2,225 2,021 1,830
Mark-to-market activity, net(1) and other service revenues 62 164 154
Total other cost of revenue (1,392) (1,445) (3,929)
Gross Profit $895 $740 ($1,945)
Sales, general and other administrative expense 146 175 240
Other operating expenses 44 101 2,186
Interest expense, net of interest income 1,955 1,175 1,313
Other (income) expense, net (139) 18 (88)
Net income before reorganization expense and taxes ($1,111) ($729) ($5,596)
Reorganization items (3,258) 972 5,026
Net income before taxes $2,147 ($1,701) ($10,622)
Income taxes (546) 64 (741)
Net income, before discontinued operations $2,693 ($1,765) ($9,881)
Discontinued operations, net of tax provision of $132 in 2005 – – ($58)
Net income (after discontinued operations) $2,693 ($1,765) ($9,939)
Adjusted EBITDA $1,412 $1,029 $927
(1) Included in operating revenues and fuel and purchased energy expenses.
• Interest expense includes $849 million of post-petition and default interest
19
20. ADJUSTED EBITDA RECONCILIATION
($ in millions)
December 31,
2007 2006 2005
Net income, before discontinued operations $2,693 ($1,765) ($9,881)
Adjustments to reconcile GAAP Income to Adjusted EBITDA:
Interest expense, net of interest income 1,955 1,175 1,313
(1)
Depreciation and amortization expense 507 522 558
Income tax provision (benefit) (546) 64 (741)
Impairment charges 46 118 4,530
Reorganization items (3,258) 972 5,026
Major maintenance expense 98 77 70
Operating lease expense 54 66 105
Loss (income) on various repurchases of debt – 18 203
(Gains) losses on derivatives 2 (213) 52
(Gains) losses on sales of assets and contract restructuring
excluding reorganization items (7) (6) 18
Claim settlement income (136) – –
Other 3 1 80
Adjusted EBITDA $1,412 $1,029 $927
(1) Depreciation and amortization in the GAAP net income (loss) calculation on Calpine’s Consolidated Statements of Operations excludes
amortization of other assets and amounts classified as SG&A.
Note: Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, and should be viewed as a supplement to and not a substitute for
Calpine’s results of operations presented in accordance with GAAP. Adjusted EBITDA does not purport to represent cash flow from operations
or net income (loss) as defined by GAAP as an indicator of operating performance. Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA is not necessarily
comparable to similarly-titled measures reported by other companies.
20
22. 2007 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
($ in millions)
2007 2006
2007 2006
Capacity Capacity
Commodity Commodity 2007 Gross 2006 Gross
Factor(1) Factor(1)
Margin Margin Profit Profit
Region
West $1,196 $1,037 $664 $527 65.3% 58.7%
Texas $500 $477 $298 $297 52.1% 41.7%
Southeast $268 $215 $49 ($58) 25.5% 20.9%
North $283 $313 $79 $79 33.6% 32.3%
Other, Goodwill and
Elimination ($22) ($21) ($195) ($105) NA NA
Total $2,225 $2,021 $895 $740 46.6% 39.2%
(1) Excludes peaking capacity.
• Commodity Margin includes electricity and steam revenues, hedging and optimization
activities, renewable energy credit revenue, transmission revenue and expenses, and fuel and
purchased energy expenses, but excludes mark-to-market activity and other service revenues
22
23. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
• Calpine’s Plan of Reorganization assumes improved financial performance through 2012.
Numerous factors are expected to contribute to improved performance, including:
- Forecasted diminishing reserve margins across the U.S.
- Significant impact on Calpine’s key markets, ERCOT and California
- Owners of CCGT and peaking plants will likely be the beneficiaries
- Development of regional capacity markets
- Environmental pressures are anticipated to increase with carbon legislation looming,
particularly in California
- Calpine’s low-carbon dioxide emitting, cost-effective natural gas-fired
generation portfolio is well positioned as this trend continues
- The Geysers’ value is expected be further enhanced as the renewable energy
credit market develops
23
24. 2008 – 2012 ADJUSTED EBITDA PROJECTIONS
($ in millions)
$3,000
CAGR
$2,500 10.2%
Adjusted EBITDA
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
–
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Note: Projected Adjusted EBITDA is based on exit Lenders’ presentation on January 8, 2008.
• The growth in EBITDA is primarily due to:
- The improvement in commodity margin in ERCOT, CA, and Southeast
- Contribution from growth projects (Greenfield, Otay Mesa and Russell City)
- Implementation of CO2 legislation
• Per the Lenders’ presentation on January 8, 2008 the Company had approximately 75% of gross margin hedged for 2008
24
25. MAJOR MAINTENANCE AND CAPITAL
EXPENDITURES
• Capital expenditures include primarily operating and maintenance capital expenditures and certain
construction and investment capital expenditures(1)
• Operating and maintenance capital expenditures for the operating fleet
- Includes capital spending for reinvestment in The Geysers
• Construction capital expenditures
- Capital required for the construction of Otay Mesa and Greenfield funded by proceeds from
construction financings and equity contributions from Calpine and/or its project partners
($ in millions)
2007
Total Operating CapEx and Major Maintenance $267
Construction CapEx 201
Total CapEx and Major Maintenance 468
Less: Financing Related to Construction Projects (156)
Net Funded CapEx and Major Maintenance $312
(1) Includes major maintenance costs but does not include ordinary maintenance expense.
25
26. SIGNIFICANT NOL VALUE CREATED DURING BANKRUPTCY
• Calpine (Including CCFC) has $5.1 billion of U.S. NOLs which will have annual IRC
Section 382 limitations on usage as follows:
- $4.33 billion over 13 years ($333 million/year)
- $750 million over five years ($150 million/year)
- Any amount not utilized in any year from these limitations can be carried
forward to succeeding years.
• In addition to these NOLs the company has significant deferred tax assets related to
the bankruptcy that will generate tax deductions not limited under IRC Section 382
• In addition there are approximately $650 million of NOLs associated with Canada
26
28. CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND LIQUIDITY
($ in millions)
New capital structure December 31, 2007 At exit
DIP Facility $3,970 –
Second priority debt 3,672 –
CCFC financing 1,080 1,079
Project debt 2,934 3,067
Drawn Revolver – 150
First lien debt – 5,980
Bridge loan – 300
Total debt $11,656 $10,576
Total cash assets $2,496 $839
Less restricted and reserved 581 463
Cash and cash equivalents $1,915 $376
(1)
Net debt / adjusted EBITDA 6.9x 5.8x
Revolver and LC availability (total revolver capacity $1,000) 765 625
Total liquidity $2,680 $1,001
(1) Net debt excludes drawn revolver, bridge loan and restricted cash; PoR 2008E adjusted EBITDA
used for At exit ratio.
• Calpine has ~$1.0 billion of liquidity to support its operations
• The amount of restricted cash as of 12/31/2007 is $581 million
28
29. OVERVIEW OF EXIT FACILITIES
Amount Cash Flow
Facilities Rate Maturity Amortization
(in $ mm) Sweep
$1,000 L + 287.5 March 29, 2014 None
Existing First
Lien Revolver
50% at Lender’s
$3,887 L + 287.5 March 29, 2014 1% per annum
Existing First
discretion(1)
Lien Term Loan
50% at Lender’s
Additional First $2,093 L + 287.5 March 29, 2014 1% per annum
discretion(1)
Lien Term Loan
366 days from
First Lien Asset $300 L + 287.5 None
closing date
Sale Bridge
$7,280
Total Facilities
• Calpine’s Exit Credit Facility provides significant, long-dated debt at attractive rates
• $148 million of the Asset Sale Bridge Loan has been repaid from the Hillabee proceeds, the balance will
be paid off with a portion of the proceeds from the sale of Fremont
(1) Cash flow sweep can potentially be reduced to 25% if consolidated leverage ratio less than 5.0.
29
30. DEBT MATURITY SCHEDULE
$6,000
$5,606
$5,000
$4,000
$ Millions
$152 mm outstanding $85 mm of PCFIII Notes
$3,000
Bridge balance to be to be repaid from cash
repaid from asset collateral account
sales proceeds
$2,000
$1,687
$1,000
$385 $280
$300
$85
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Thereafter
CCFC Project debt First Lien
Assumptions:
• Maturity Balances assumes no cash sweeps
• All other debt maturities are paid off from operating cashflows at the Project Level
• Metcalf assumed to be refinanced in 2008
30
31. FIRST LIEN COLLATERAL PROGRAM
• Exit Facility provides first lien collateral for power, gas and interest rate hedging
transactions
- Power, gas, and other commodity hedging is limited to Right Way Risk (RWR)
transactions
- Reduces reliance on cash collateral decreasing liquidity risk
- Reduced cost of collateral
- Exit Facility allows more flexibility as to the types of natural gas transactions to be
included in the program
• Currently 5 counterparties under the program with 3 additional counterparties expected
to sign on by April 2008
• As of 12/31/2007, over $170 million reduction in cash collateral on commodity hedging
transactions
31
34. ASSET PORTFOLIO
• Calpine owns nearly 24,000 MW of operating capacity, concentrated in the West
and Texas Colorado
906 MW
- California
Within the West, the majority of the capacity is located in California 5,204 MW
Oregon
616 MW
Arizona
520 MW
ISONE
537 MW
North Region
10 Plants
West Region
2,822 MW MRO
43 Plants NYISO
1,387 MW 352 MW
7,246 MW
RFC
546 MW
FRCC
Southeast Region
865 MW
12 Plants
6,254 MW
Texas Region SPP
12 Plants 1,134 MW
Total 7,487 MW
77 Plants
SERC
23,809 MW
4,255 MW
34
35. Calpine Overview
TECHNOLOGY MIX
• The majority of Calpine’s capacity is gas-fired
• Combined cycle plants represent 51% of Calpine’s capacity, cogeneration technology
represents 33%, and 725 MW of capacity is geothermal
Total Capacity(1) Baseload
Baseload
(Geothermal)
(Geothermal)
3%
725 MW Peaking
Peaking
13%
3,000 MW
Intermediate Intermediate
12,119 MW 51%
Intermediate Intermediate
(Cogeneration) (Cogeneration)
7,965 MW 33%
(1) As of 12/31/2007.
35
36. Calpine Overview
TECHNOLOGY MIX BY REGION
• Most of Calpine’s West region capacity consists of intermediate gas-fired combined
cycles
• In Texas, the majority of Calpine’s assets operate as cogeneration facilities, which sell
steam to industrial and commercial customers for use in heating and other applications
West Texas North Southeast
Baseload
Peaking Peaking
Intermediate
Intermediate Intermediate
(Geothermal)
983 MW 963 MW
1,600 MW 2,762 MW
(Cogeneration)
725 MW
4,260 MW
Intermediate Peaking
(Cogeneration) 1,054 MW
1,008 MW
Intermediate
Intermediate
Intermediate (Cogeneration)
3,227 MW
Intermediate
(Cogeneration) 2,529 MW
4,530 MW
168 MW
Note: As of 12/31/2007.
36
37. FLEET CHARACTERISTICS
• Calpine’s assets are reliable and fuel-efficient
- Higher availability and lower outages than national average
- Operate at lower heat rates
• Calpine’s fleet efficiency permits the Company to economically dispatch
its assets when it is uneconomic for other similar assets to operate
Net Capacity Factor Equiv. Forced Outage Rate Net Heat Rate
% 50 50 % 40 9,000
48
45
40 8,500
30
35
BTU/kwh
30 8,000
7,896
27
25 20
20 7,444
7,500
13
15 7,332
10
9
10 7,000
8
5
0 0 6,500
National Average +/- 1 St Dev National Average +/- 1 St Dev National Average +/- 1 St Dev
1 1 1
Calpine Average - 2005 Calpine Average - 2005 Calpine Average - 2005
National Average - 2005 National Average - 2005 National Average - 2005
Calpine Average - 2007 Calpine Average - 2007
Calpine Average - 2007
Sources: Calpine combined cycle data (excludes cogens): NERC Generating Availability Data System (GADS). National combined cycle data: NCF and EFOR plant data from
NERC; NHR plant data from Energy Velocity and PA Consulting Group
37
38. (1)
SO2 (tons) / yr
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Southern
AEP
Source: 2006 CEMS data from Energy Velocity
Duke
Dynegy adjusted for LS Power acquisitions
TVA
Progress
TXU
PPL
Ameren
Allegheny
Reliant
FirstEnergy
38
DTE Energy
Edison International
Dominion
NRG
Berkshire Hathaway
E.ON AG
SO2 EMISSIONS OF TOP 25 GENERATORS
Xcel
Constellation
PSEG
FPL
(1)
Dynegy
Entergy
Exelon
Calpine
39. (1)
NOx (tons ) / yr
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
50,000
0
AEP
Southern
Source: 2006 CEMS data from Energy Velocity
TVA
Dynegy adjusted for LS Power acquisitions
Duke
Berkshire Hathaway
Xcel
Dominion
Progress
Edison International
FirstEnergy
Allegheny
Ameren
39
DTE
NRG
E.ON AG
TXU
PPL
Reliant
FPL
NOx EMISSIONS OF TOP 25 GENERATORS
Entergy
Constellation
PSEG
Exelon
Dynegy (1)
Calpine
40. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS OF TOP 25 GENERATORS
200,000,000
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
CO2 (tons) / yr
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
-
Edison International
Calpine
Constellation
Dominion
Reliant
DTE
Duke
Entergy
Xcel
Exelon
FPL
TXU
PPL
FirstEnergy
Allegheny
Ameren
NRG
Southern
AEP
E.ON AG
TVA
PSEG
Progress
Berkshire Hathaway
Dynegy (1)
(1) Dynegy adjusted for LS Power acquisitions
Source: 2006 CEMS data from Energy Velocity
40
41. MAJOR MAINTENANCE
• One of Calpine’s biggest non-labor cost is major maintenance expense
- Expected 2008 major maintenance expense is $174 million(1)
- Most operators rely on OEMs to perform this service
• Calpine self-performs major maintenance with an in-house Turbine Maintenance Group
(TMG)
- Material financial benefit to self performing major maintenance
- TMG is viewed as one of the industry’s experts on gas turbines
(1) Based on Exit Facility Lenders’ presentation on January 8, 2008
41
42. CONTINUING FLEET INITIATIVES
• Calpine focuses on continuous operational improvement for its assets, including:
- Performance Optimization Program (“POP”) focused on enhancing the total efficiency of Calpine’s plants
through implementation of best practices gathered from across the fleet
- Calpine Engine Optimization (“CEO”) designed to reduce heat rates and increase power output of gas turbines
through implementation of optimized parts and components
- Other engineering initiatives designed to optimize operations and processes related to management of the
power assets
• Calpine is able to leverage lessons learned across the fleet for maximum optimization
42
44. DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
• Development is refocused on creating value from acquiring, developing and
disposing of assets based on a rigorous risk framework
Mitigate
Price
Northwest NE ISO
Risk
MISO
NYISO
MRO
WECC
Pro forma Cash
PJM
CO-WY
Flows and
TVA VACAR
SPP
California AZ-NM-SNV
Returns
Entergy
Southern
ERCOT
FRCC
Mitigated Address Capital
Construction Investment
Risk Limits
Evaluate Opportunities Risk Mitigation Meet Calpine Hurdle Rates
• Focus efforts on markets where Calpine has • Identify alternative ways to create value
• Articulate Calpine’s risk tolerance and
a competitive advantage • Partner or Outsource
project specific financial objectives
• Expansion opportunities • Contract
• Refine and calibrate risk tolerance and
• Portfolio enhancement • Promote projects that provide portfolio
financial analysis tools
• Continue to engage in evaluating projects diversification
• Execute mitigation strategies within risk
• Market knowledge • Create new opportunities
tolerance and financial objectives
• Find unrealized value
44
45. DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH INITIATIVES
• Calpine’s development program includes executing long-term power purchase agreements
• Calpine has three projects where contractual agreements with counterparties have been completed,
totaling 2,198 MW (1,487 MW net):
Greenfield Energy Centre Otay Mesa Energy Center Russell City Energy Center
• • •
50% owned 1,005 MW gas- 100% owned 596 MW 65% Calpine owned 597 MW
fired facility under combined-cycle plant under combined-cycle plant to be
construction in Ontario, construction in southern located in Hayward,
Canada San Diego County California (San Francisco
• • area)
Output contracted under Output contracted under
•
long-term PPA with Ontario long-term PPA with SDG&E Output contracted under
•
Power Authority long-term PPA with PG&E
$377 million non-recourse
• •
Completed $650 million financing arranged by ING Buyback opportunity for
project financing Capital and BayernLB 35% minority interest
• • •
Expected on line date: 2008 Expected on line date: 2009 Expected on line date:
2010 / 2011
Any other growth projects would be incremental to Calpine’s PoR projections
45
47. MARKET OUTLOOK - SUMMARY
• Many U.S. regional electricity markets continue to recover:
- Reserve margins arein recent yearsmany markets, and annual average market heat rates have
tightening in
generally increased
• Several industry trends are expected to benefit Calpine:
- Supply and Demand –inCalpine’s plants in California andmarkets
Texas benefit from lower levels of excess
capacity than found many other regional electricity
- markets Fuel Mix and Prices – Natural gas prices set power prices in most hours in Calpine’s core
Regional
- dioxide emissions, are expected to benefit Calpine regulations, including regulation of carbon
Environmental Regulations – Tightening environmental
- Rising Construction Costs –of Calpine’scosts to construct new generation facilities has positive
Increasing
implications for the value existing assets
- Market Regulations – Market developments such as trends toward separate capacity markets as
well as nodal pricing are expected to benefit Calpine
47
48. MANY MARKETS ARE NOT AS OVERBUILT AS
THEY ONCE WERE …
2001 2005
New England New England
Northwest1 Northwest1
MISO MISO
New York New York
MRO MRO
PJM
California1 PJM
California1
CO- WY CO-WY
SPP SPP
TVA TVA
VACAR VACAR
AZ-NM-SV AZ-NM-SV
Entergy Entergy
Southern Southern
ERCOT ERCOT
FRCC FRCC
Today
New England
Northwest1
Degree of Market
Overbuild MISO New York
Market Significantly
Significant Surplus MRO
Overbuilt
PJM
California1
CO-WY
SPP
TVA VACAR
AZ-NM-SV
Entergy
Southern
Capacity Deficit
ERCOT
FRCC
(1) The supply and demand balance in the Northwest and California are
dependent on hydro conditions.
Source: PA Consulting Group.
48
49. … AS ILLUSTRATED BY DECLINING RESERVE
MARGINS IN MUCH OF THE U.S.
Reserve Margins1 30%
2005 and 2008 20%
32%
26%
New
England
25%
24%
NW 23%
17%
2005 2008
25%
MISO 23%
PJM
2005 2008
New
2005 2008
17%
York
16%
2005 2008
38%
33% 27%
27%
27%
21% 2005 2008
CA
25%
TVA
VACAR
SPP
18%
2005 2008
2005
AZNM 2008
2005 2008
2005 2008
37%
30%
2
67% 25%
2005 2008
16% 49%
SOU
ERCOT
Reserve margin measures the amount of ENT
surplus capacity in a market and is defined as:
(Capacity – Demand)/(Demand) 2005 2008 2005 2008
2005 2008
(1) Represents PA’s forecast for the year which is a weather normalized forecast.
Source: PA Consulting Group.
49
50. MARKET EQUILIBRIUM GENERALLY PROJECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE 2008-2012 TIMEFRAME
32%
20%
NW2 16%
23%
20%
8% 17%
New
15%
England
14% 14%
New
17%
15%
York4
2008 2018
MRO 2008 2011
COWY3
17%
MISO
15%
24%
2008 2016 2008 2010
22%
27%
CA2 27%
2008 2011
2008 2011
PJM
18% 14% 15%
21%
14%
2008 2011
SPP TVA
Reserve 2008 2011
15%
49%
Margin (%)
AZNM Entergy VACAR
2008 2013
2008 2018
2008 Reserve
15%
25%
16%
Target Reserve1 2008 2011
2008 2012
13%
15%
2008 2018
(1) The years listed under target reserve margin correspond to the year 29%
ERCOT
the market is projected to reach equilibrium.
Southern
(2) Hydro capacity is de-rated in California and the rest of
19%
the WECC by 25% and 20%, respectively.
(3) The Colorado/Wyoming region is currently at its target but the
reserve margin is expected to increase in 2009 and not reach its
FRCC
2008 2012
2008 2011
target again until 2011.
(4) Reserve margins represent all of NY and the 2010 date represents
when NY Incity first needs capacity.
Source: PA Consulting Group. 2008 2011
50
51. REGIONAL FUEL MIX VARIES ACROSS THE U.S.,
TYPICALLY INCLUDING BOTH GAS AND COAL …
New England
NW New York
MRO
MISO
PJM
COWY
CA SPP
Fuel Type
AZNM
TVA
ENT VACAR
SOU
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
ERCOT
Hydro/Other Renewable
Dual Fuel
FRCC
Source: PA Consulting Group
51
52. … HOWEVER, THE FUEL ON THE MARGIN
DRIVES MARKET ELECTRICITY PRICES
Fuel on the Margin Sample Day of Market Dispatch
(SERC example)
MISO
New York Oil
Northwest
New
Capacity (GW)
MRO England Gas
PJM
CO-WY Coal
SPP
TVA VACAR
AZ-NM-NV Nuclear
Entergy
California
Southern Hydro
ERCOT
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour of Day
FRCC
Sample Day of Market Dispatch
(ERCOT example)
Gas on margin >90% of time Oil
Gas on the margin >65% of time
Capacity (GW)
Gas
Predominately coal with gas & oil
Predominately gas with coal & oil
Predominately coal with gas; oil >10%
Coal
Nuclear
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour of Day
Source: PA Consulting Group
52
53. IN CALPINE’S CORE MARKETS OF CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS,
GAS PRICES PREDOMINANTLY DRIVE POWER PRICES
Fuel on the Margin
MISO
The more gas is on the margin in a market, the more impact
New York
Northwest
New
higher or lower gas prices will have on power prices.
MRO England
PJM
CO-WY SPP
Impact on Peak Power Prices of $2 Higher Gas New England
TVA VACAR
AZ-NM-NV
Entergy
California
Southern
ERCOT
Northwest
FRCC
MISO New York
MRO
Gas on margin >90% of time
PJM
Gas on the margin >65% of time CO- Y
W
Predominately coal with gas & oil
SPP
Predominately gas with coal & oil TVA VACAR
Predominately coal with gas; oil >10% AZ- -SV
-NM
Entergy
Southern
ERCOT
20-25% increase FRCC
15-20% increase
10-15% increase
0-10% increase
Source: PA Consulting Group
53