1. Climate change risks and recommendations for adaptations: The case of Lower Usuthu
Smallholder Irrigation Project, Swaziland.
Ray M. Gama & Musa Masilela
BACKGROUND
The Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project (LUSIP) is a poverty alleviation initiative located in the
Lower Usuthu river basin which is the largest river basin in Swaziland with an area of 12, 559 km2. The
study area (Siphofaneni) is located in the lowveld agro-climatic region of Swaziland, between latitudes
26° 40' 60 S and longitudes 31° 40' 60 E with an altitude of 164m above sea level. The main goal of
LUSIP is to improve the standard of living of the people in the project area, who are currently the poorest
in the country. The project will achieve this goal by transforming the local economy from subsistence
farming into sustainable commercial agriculture. In achieving this, the project will significantly contribute
to the achievement of the millennium development goals (MDGs). The Lower Usuthu Smallholder
Irrigation Project was commenced in December 2003 and is scheduled to be completed in 2015. The
project was founded to address the lack of irrigation water for poor farmers as the dry season river flow of
the Lower Usuthu River has already been fully allocated to existing irrigators. The LUSIP project will
address this constraint by storing flood water in an off-river, 155Mm3 Reservoir at Lubovane that will
provide irrigation water for an overall 11, 500 ha after completion of the second phase in 2015. Three
dams have been constructed at Mhlathuzane River, Golome River and Saddle dam to form an off river
reservoir to store flood water diverted from wet season flows in the Usuthu River.
The Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project is a E1.4 billion poverty alleviation investment by the
Swaziland Government. It is prudent it is used optimally and guarded against climate as a risk. This paper
aims at collating relevant climate change studies which relevant to the project and make
recommendations.
INTRODUCTION
It has been argued that the recent climate change is attributed to anthropogenic activities. It is here to stay
as evidenced by impacts globally, continentally and at local scales. According to (Conway, 2008) the
current Sahelian drought has resulted in the Sahelian Sudanese and Guinean ecological zones shifting 25-
35 km further south, with loss of valuable grassland, savanna and other resources that the indigenous
people rely upon. One of the most severe consequences has been the Darfur conflict in the Sudan, which
originated from clashes between pastoralists and sedentary farmers over depleted water and other
resources. Droughts and floods have hit hard in Zambia and Mozambique resulting to loss of lives and

2. property. The results are in many respects irreversible. Southern Africa, Swaziland inclusive had
6.5million hungry people in April 2009 according the (WFP Report, 2009). The food basket, South Africa
will have a twenty percent reduction in cereal production in the next 15-20 years.
Swaziland is affected adversely by climate change already. However, it is not known by how much
precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, temperature and runoff are going to change due to the
greenhouse gases effect (Matondo et al., 2004). These climate variables (rainfall, temperature), are key in
determining the risk posed by climate change to all life forms. This in effect, implies it is not very clear
what impacts climate change would have on a variety of crops.
This paper aims to collate available information on climate change impacts, with particular emphasis on
LUSIP smallholder agriculture. It will also do a preliminary assessment of the current LUSIP project
related activities and its relevance to climate change. Thirdly, it will prepare preliminary
recommendations to improve, discontinue, modify, enhance or introduce new activities to improve
smallholder farmers’ resilience, and propose relevant mitigations and adaptation measures.
OBJECTIVES
‐ To debate relevant research findings on climate change in Swaziland and relating it with LUSIP in
the Usuthu River Basin
‐ To do a preliminary assessment of the current project related activities and its relevance to climate
change.
‐ To recommend climate change response strategies for LUSIP.
LITERATURE REVIEW
It has been argued that the recent climate change is attributed to anthropogenic activities. Human
interventions are causing the earth to change too fast and this affects adaptability of many living
organisms. According UNEP and UNFCCC (2002) the earth temperature has increased by 0.6o C and this
is attributed to increase in green house gases exacerbated by emission from human activities. Green house
gases control energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infrared radiation emitted by the earth. Green
house gases act like a blanket to keep the earth some 20oC warmer than it would be if atmosphere
contained only oxygen and nitrogen (UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002). Global average temperature is
predicted to increase by 1.4-5.8oC by year 2100 (UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002).

3. The 2001, IPPC report on climate change reveals an increase in mean sea level by 10-20cm and further
predicts a further increase by 9-88cm by year 2100. In 2001, the carbon concentration in the atmosphere
was 367ppm and it is predicted to increase to 490-1260ppm by year 2100 (UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002).
Carbon dioxide is currently responsible for over 60% of enhanced green house effect. This is promoted by
the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil. Power stations release aerosols which are microscopic
particles from sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxides released from agriculture also contribute as green house
gases. The impacts of climate change will involve an increase in droughts in some regions especially in
the African continent and floods, hurricanes and monsoons will be experienced in other regions especially
in the northern hemisphere. Africa and Asia is likely to experience reduction in rainfall and increase in
severe droughts. Globally, the green house gases effect is expected to increase average precipitation by 5-
15% and Evapotranspiration by 10-20%.
METHODOLOGY
The aim is to collate local published and non-published research findings on climate change for the study
area. Siphofaneni is the LUSIP project development area. These are debated with the aim of
recommending coping mechanisms and strategies for the long-term sustainability of the project.
FINDINGS
Reduction of run-off in the Usuthu River Basin
According to (Matondo, et. al., 2004), there will be a 4% decrease in annual runoff same as the one
observed by (Mhlanga, 2010) the annual run-off is for the Usuthu River Basin which drains the study
area. Water is harvested during summer to fill the Lubovane resevoiur. Such a reduction implies a
reduction in floods, leading to less water stored than normal and eventually affecting irrigation demands.
The magnitude of the impacts caused by the reduction has to be established. Otherwise, according to
(IPCC, 2001), Sub-Saharan Africa is the one region, in the world, where per-capita food production is
either in decline, or roughly constant at a level that is less than adequate (Scholes and Biggs, 2004).
According to (Mabuza et al, 2007) Swaziland is among the sub-Saharan countries that have been worst
affected by prevailing droughts over the past five to six years. During the 2002 to 2005 production
seasons, cereal food aid played a major role in filling Swaziland’s maize gap following Government’s
appeal to the international community to assist in alleviating the negative production impacts of
2001/2002 and successive droughts that were coupled with erratic rains. The Siphofaneni community is
presently relying from food aid which emanates from erratic rains leading to poor production. It is

4. assumed that erratic rains are a result of climate change. SWADE has come to shift the paradymn with
water provision and managing the climate change risk.
Effects on the Lubovane resevoiur
According to (Mhlanga, 2010) using after running Watbal Climate Change models, it is predicted that on
a dry-year condition the reservoir will not fill up but a live storage level will be reached. There will be no
serious challenges to meeting the gross demand for the project. For such a scenario no serious shortages
will be experienced but water should still be managed properly assuming 25% initial storage is available
at the beginning of the season in 2075. If not, then there will be an imbalance in demand/supply.
Soil Water Availability implications for the LUSIP Area
While there is considerable consensus among climate scientists on these general outlines of climate
change, there is much less agreement on how climate change will affect a given location, using the
HaDCM3, model, both the 2050 A2 and B2 water deficiency projections by Knox et. al. (2010) show that
the area around Siphofaneni and Big Bend (LUSIP development area) will lie in two regions projected to
have soil moisture deficiency of 700 – 800mm and 800 – 900mm compared to the current 600 – 700 and
700 – 800mm, respectively. (Knox et al., 2010) also concluded that future irrigation needs would increase
by 20–22% in order to produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of
production.
It is evident that strict water management and sustainable land uses are important issues to be considered
and factored into all planning and management regimes in the project area.
In summary, the Usuthu River Basin is going to be affected by climate change predicted to be 4%, the
Lubovane reservoir might take time to fill during such conditions which might need proper management
and projected soil moisture deficiency from 700-800mm is predicted to conclude a 20-22% increase in
irrigation demand. Science informs policy. These findings are supposed to assist implementing agents and
the GoS in evaluating progress made in coping mechanisms and also coming up with new ones to be
implemented in the PDA.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Reduction of run-off by 4%

5. • The system for harvesting water should be real-time. This calls for the installation of a telemetry
system or telecommunication system that will report how much water is flowing at GS6 to indicate
how much water can be diverted real-time. GS9 might also need to be included so that we establish
realtime the flow to Mozambique as per the Tripartite Agreement. This calls for a centralized system
from the intake (Bulungapoort) weir to GS9
• Introduction of variable water permits (water rationing) . This mandates the reduction of water
rights during low flows. It is also enshrined in the water Act that permits shall be reduced during
droughts.
• Water Harvesting for potable water supply during the rainy season.
Increase in irrigation demand by 20-22%
• Use of water saving crops other than cropping the whole PDA with sugarcane. This also in line with
the current LUSIP diversification strategy.
• The use of water saving irrigation systems where possible
Effects on the Lubovane reservoir
• Irrigation water rationing - During dry season when there is zero diversion and reservoir levels are
low, rationing of water can be an option until the following wet season when floods occurs
• There should be strong environmental attention given to the servitude to minimise erosion and
sedimentation coming from human activity. The sediments load lowers the depth of Dams and hence
their capacity over time.
• Water quality should be monitored as part of demand management. Polluted is not avalable for use.
General
• LUSIP should develop a Climate change adaptation strategy.
• Establishment of a Climate change task team.
Development of a capacity building framework for local Farmers: These interventions would help in
Maximizing local knowledge. The project is well positioned to extend the current new farmer extension
services provided to include imparting knowledge to small-scale farmers in coping with and adapting to
climate change. Additionally, small-scale farmers will in the long-run stand to benefit from inculcating
new techniques that can help mitigate the effects of climate change.
References
J.W. Knox, J.A. Rodríguez Díaz, D.J. Nixon, M. Mkhwanazi (2010): A preliminary assessment of climate
change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland. Agricultural Systems 103 (2010) 63–72.

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usuthu river basin, Swaziland
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