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Mobile Business:
New entrepreneurial
opportunities around location




HEC Web & HEC Entrepreneurs



Frederic Bruneteau - Association HEC - Paris - 13th September 2010
Introduction


We just published the most comprehensive study ever written
on the location business and technologies
                      • 230 pages of analysis about positioning
                        technologies and their impact on the location
                        industry, built on
                        - Interviews with over 100 executives from all
                          sides of the industry, from Admob to Yahoo!,
                        - 6 months of desk research and primary
                          research, notably an online survey,

                      • An in-depth investigation of the current value
                        chain and expected changes

                      • A detailed market model so as to combine
                        strategic and technology analysis with hard
                        figures

                      • Free version (115 pages) can be downloaded on
                        www.ptolemus.com/study



                                                                         3
What to know about location?


Is location just built on buzz?




                                  3
What to know about location?


Location is coming to all mobile phones

      GPS-enabled mobile phones sold in Europe                               WiFi-enabled mobile phones sold in Europe



200                                                                    200
               GPS-enabled smartphones                                               WiFi-enabled smartphones
               GPS-enabled low-end & feature phones                                  WiFi-enabled basic and feature phones


150                                                                    150




100                                                                    100




 50                                                                     50




  0                                                                      0
        2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014
                                                                             2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014




                             Source: PTOLEMUS                                                                                               17
What to know about location?


  Location and connectivity are also penetrating all devices
                                                                                                           Connected
     High                                       Layering
                                                                     Die-cutting
                                                                      machine                                train
                                                machine                                                                                      Airplane

                         Elevator                                                    Tractor

                                                                                                                       Connected car               Connected
                                                                                                                                                     truck
                                                                                                  Server

                                                                    Parking
                                                                     metre
                                                                                                                                  Laptop
                Fridge              Air conditioning
                                         system

Local device                                                                                                                                 Smartphone
                                                                   Fixed
intelligence                                                       phone
                                                                                                           Connected
                                                                                                             copier
                                                                                    WiFi
                                                    Cash                           router
                                                   register                                                                 Connected PND




                                Oven
                Traffic light                                               Connected
                                                                            photoframe                            Connected
                                                                                                                   vending
                                           Washer                                                                  machine
                    Lawn mower                                                                                                         Connected
                                                                                             Connected                                   watch
                                                                                            videocamera

     Low                 Hairdryer
                                                           Connected plug
                                      Toaster

                Low                                                           Total solution intelligence                                  High

                            Source: PTOLEMUS                                                                                                            4
What to know about location?


Location goes beyond location-centric applications


                               What you see / hear




                                                     6
What to know about location?


Location goes beyond location-centric applications


                               What you see / hear




                               The silent revolution




                                                       7
What to know about location?

A smart use of location can be a key ingredient
                                                                                                        • Indoor navigation
to build a great product                                                                                 unlocked




                                                                              • A sense of direction!
                                                       • Universal coverage
                                                       • High accuracy
                                                        outside cities
                                                                                                              Gyro

                                  • Almost universal
                                    coverage
                                                                                     Compass                Compass
       • Fix in less than 1
           second
       •   Indoor location
           possible
                                                               GPS                     GPS                     GPS



                                      Cellular tower      Cellular tower          Cellular tower          Cellular tower
                                      triangulation       triangulation           triangulation           triangulation
                                         (Google)            (Google)                (Google)                (Google)


            Skyhook's WiFi           Skyhook's WiFi      Skyhook's WiFi          Skyhook's WiFi          Skyhook's WiFi
              positioning              positioning         positioning             positioning             positioning
                system                   system              system                  system                  system


                             Source: PTOLEMUS                                                                                 20
What to know about location?


Location-based social networking will take off

• Not thanks to Foursquare and          At least 6 clear use cases
   Gowalla!
• Not even thanks to Google
   Latitude.                            Navigate to
                                                       Share place
• Despite a sure backlash against         friend
   impact on privacy
• But thanks to existing,
   mainstream networks such as         Find friends    Find Friend's
   Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn,           nearby           place
   Viadeo, Mobiluck, Gypsii, etc.
• They have more users,
   users' (relative) trust
                                       Nearby friend      Locate
• Location is a add-on, not the core       alert          friends
   value proposition of a social
   network

                                                                       9
What to know about location?


Mind the gap... between your company and the 4 "silos"

                                              The four location silos



         Network
          infra.                                                     Nokia Siemens


                                               supl.google.com       supl.nokia.com
          A-GPS


           WPS                                   Google Maps             Navteq


            OS                                     Android              Symbian
                          iPhone OS                                                       Windows Phone
                                                                    + Maemo + Moblin

         Browser            Safari             Chrome / Webkit          Novarra          Internet Explorer

          Device            iPhone                                       Nokia

           Map                                   Google Maps
                          PlaceBase                                 OVI map + Navteq           Bing

           LBA
                     iAd (Quattro Wireless)         AdMob                Navteq        Microsoft Advertising

         App store
                          App Store           Android Marketplace      OVI Store       Windows MarketPlace




                                                                                                               10
How to succeed in mobile location


 Numerous European startups have succeeded in the last 20 years

Success




         Early stage                       Confirmed   Mature

                        Source: PTOLEMUS                        11
How to succeed in mobile location


And certain European start-ups were acquired




                       Source: PTOLEMUS        12
How to succeed in mobile location


Where are the next waves?


    New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle




   Technology         Peak of
     trigger                         Disilusionment   Enlightenment   Maturity
                    expectations



                       Source: PTOLEMUS                                             13
How to succeed in mobile location


  Where are the next waves?


       New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle

                                                                                                      RUC    Location-based services
                                                                                                    New LBS technologies & services, based on
                                                                                                              Gartner's Hype Cycle
                     Social POIs                      RUC

                                                      Location-
                                                        based
                    LBSN                               content
                                                                                                                                       Tracking
                                                         E112                                                            Navigation
                    LBA                                                  bCall

                                                            SVR                             eCall
           Car-sharing
 Mobile
tracking                                                                         PAYD
                                                                  Connected
      Eco-driving                                                 navigation


      Parking




      Technology                Peak of
        trigger                                  Disilusionment                         Enlightenment                                 Maturity
                              expectations



                                   Source: PTOLEMUS                                                                                               14
How to succeed in mobile location


  Where are the next waves?


       New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle

                                                                                                        RUC    Location-based services
                                                                                                      New LBS technologies & services, based on
                                                                                                                Gartner's Hype Cycle
                                        AR                                                               WPS    Underlying location technologies
                     Social POIs                      RUC
                                   Pedestrian
                                     maps             Location-
                                                        based
                    LBSN                               content
                                   3D maps
                                                                                                                                         Tracking
                                  Crowd-                 E112                                                              Navigation
                    LBA       sourced content                               bCall
                                                New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle
                                                            SVR                                                                                    GPS
           Car-sharing          MEMS                                                   eCall
 Mobile
tracking                                                                            PAYD                       Glonass
                                                                  Connected
      Eco-driving            Indoor                               navigation
                            location                                                                WPS

      Parking         Location                                                   Hybrid
                        data                                Galileo             location
                     management                                                                  IP location

                Location-
                triggered                                         Cell-ID
                decisions



      Technology                  Peak of
        trigger                                   Disilusionment                           Enlightenment                                 Maturity
                                expectations



                                   Source: PTOLEMUS                                                                                                      15
How to succeed in mobile location


  Where are the next waves?


       New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle

                                                                                                        RUC    Location-based services
                                                                                                      New LBS technologies & services, based on
                                                                                                                Gartner's Hype Cycle
                                        AR                                                               WPS    Underlying location technologies
                     Social POIs                      RUC
                                   Pedestrian
                                     maps             Location-
                                                        based
                    LBSN                               content
                                   3D maps
                                                                                                                                         Tracking
                                  Crowd-                 E112                                                              Navigation
                    LBA       sourced content                               bCall
                                                New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle
                                                            SVR                                                                                    GPS
           Car-sharing          MEMS                                                   eCall
 Mobile
tracking                                                                            PAYD                       Glonass
                                                                  Connected
      Eco-driving            Indoor                               navigation
                            location                                                                WPS

      Parking         Location                                                   Hybrid
                        data                                Galileo             location
                     management                                                                  IP location

                Location-
                triggered                                         Cell-ID
                decisions



      Technology                  Peak of
        trigger                                   Disilusionment                           Enlightenment                                 Maturity
                                expectations



                                   Source: PTOLEMUS                                                                                                      16
Conclusion



Location is becoming mainstream

                          • You will increasingly need to
                            understand location to understand
                            mobile & vice-versa

                          • Innovation will come from new
                            hardware, software, services and
                            business models:
                             - Mix the ingredients to obtain a good
                               recipe
                             - Start & finish with the end-user's
                               problem
                          • This is a global business, with 4 leaders
                            (Nokia, Google, Apple and Microsoft)
                            building vertically integrated "silos"

                          • However, there is a plenty of room for
                            entrepreneurs bringing new propositions

                                                                        23
Strategies for Mobile Companies




Brussels - Paris - London
contact@ptolemus.com
www.ptolemus.com




Frederic Bruneteau
Managing Director
fbruneteau@ptolemus.com
Twitter: @PTOLEMUS

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PTOLEMUS HEC Mobile Business Sept 2010

  • 1. Mobile Business: New entrepreneurial opportunities around location HEC Web & HEC Entrepreneurs Frederic Bruneteau - Association HEC - Paris - 13th September 2010
  • 2. Introduction We just published the most comprehensive study ever written on the location business and technologies • 230 pages of analysis about positioning technologies and their impact on the location industry, built on - Interviews with over 100 executives from all sides of the industry, from Admob to Yahoo!, - 6 months of desk research and primary research, notably an online survey, • An in-depth investigation of the current value chain and expected changes • A detailed market model so as to combine strategic and technology analysis with hard figures • Free version (115 pages) can be downloaded on www.ptolemus.com/study 3
  • 3. What to know about location? Is location just built on buzz? 3
  • 4. What to know about location? Location is coming to all mobile phones GPS-enabled mobile phones sold in Europe WiFi-enabled mobile phones sold in Europe 200 200 GPS-enabled smartphones WiFi-enabled smartphones GPS-enabled low-end & feature phones WiFi-enabled basic and feature phones 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: PTOLEMUS 17
  • 5. What to know about location? Location and connectivity are also penetrating all devices Connected High Layering Die-cutting machine train machine Airplane Elevator Tractor Connected car Connected truck Server Parking metre Laptop Fridge Air conditioning system Local device Smartphone Fixed intelligence phone Connected copier WiFi Cash router register Connected PND Oven Traffic light Connected photoframe Connected vending Washer machine Lawn mower Connected Connected watch videocamera Low Hairdryer Connected plug Toaster Low Total solution intelligence High Source: PTOLEMUS 4
  • 6. What to know about location? Location goes beyond location-centric applications What you see / hear 6
  • 7. What to know about location? Location goes beyond location-centric applications What you see / hear The silent revolution 7
  • 8. What to know about location? A smart use of location can be a key ingredient • Indoor navigation to build a great product unlocked • A sense of direction! • Universal coverage • High accuracy outside cities Gyro • Almost universal coverage Compass Compass • Fix in less than 1 second • Indoor location possible GPS GPS GPS Cellular tower Cellular tower Cellular tower Cellular tower triangulation triangulation triangulation triangulation (Google) (Google) (Google) (Google) Skyhook's WiFi Skyhook's WiFi Skyhook's WiFi Skyhook's WiFi Skyhook's WiFi positioning positioning positioning positioning positioning system system system system system Source: PTOLEMUS 20
  • 9. What to know about location? Location-based social networking will take off • Not thanks to Foursquare and At least 6 clear use cases Gowalla! • Not even thanks to Google Latitude. Navigate to Share place • Despite a sure backlash against friend impact on privacy • But thanks to existing, mainstream networks such as Find friends Find Friend's Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, nearby place Viadeo, Mobiluck, Gypsii, etc. • They have more users, users' (relative) trust Nearby friend Locate • Location is a add-on, not the core alert friends value proposition of a social network 9
  • 10. What to know about location? Mind the gap... between your company and the 4 "silos" The four location silos Network infra. Nokia Siemens supl.google.com supl.nokia.com A-GPS WPS Google Maps Navteq OS Android Symbian iPhone OS Windows Phone + Maemo + Moblin Browser Safari Chrome / Webkit Novarra Internet Explorer Device iPhone Nokia Map Google Maps PlaceBase OVI map + Navteq Bing LBA iAd (Quattro Wireless) AdMob Navteq Microsoft Advertising App store App Store Android Marketplace OVI Store Windows MarketPlace 10
  • 11. How to succeed in mobile location Numerous European startups have succeeded in the last 20 years Success Early stage Confirmed Mature Source: PTOLEMUS 11
  • 12. How to succeed in mobile location And certain European start-ups were acquired Source: PTOLEMUS 12
  • 13. How to succeed in mobile location Where are the next waves? New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle Technology Peak of trigger Disilusionment Enlightenment Maturity expectations Source: PTOLEMUS 13
  • 14. How to succeed in mobile location Where are the next waves? New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle RUC Location-based services New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle Social POIs RUC Location- based LBSN content Tracking E112 Navigation LBA bCall SVR eCall Car-sharing Mobile tracking PAYD Connected Eco-driving navigation Parking Technology Peak of trigger Disilusionment Enlightenment Maturity expectations Source: PTOLEMUS 14
  • 15. How to succeed in mobile location Where are the next waves? New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle RUC Location-based services New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle AR WPS Underlying location technologies Social POIs RUC Pedestrian maps Location- based LBSN content 3D maps Tracking Crowd- E112 Navigation LBA sourced content bCall New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle SVR GPS Car-sharing MEMS eCall Mobile tracking PAYD Glonass Connected Eco-driving Indoor navigation location WPS Parking Location Hybrid data Galileo location management IP location Location- triggered Cell-ID decisions Technology Peak of trigger Disilusionment Enlightenment Maturity expectations Source: PTOLEMUS 15
  • 16. How to succeed in mobile location Where are the next waves? New location technologies & services in Europe, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle RUC Location-based services New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle AR WPS Underlying location technologies Social POIs RUC Pedestrian maps Location- based LBSN content 3D maps Tracking Crowd- E112 Navigation LBA sourced content bCall New LBS technologies & services, based on Gartner's Hype Cycle SVR GPS Car-sharing MEMS eCall Mobile tracking PAYD Glonass Connected Eco-driving Indoor navigation location WPS Parking Location Hybrid data Galileo location management IP location Location- triggered Cell-ID decisions Technology Peak of trigger Disilusionment Enlightenment Maturity expectations Source: PTOLEMUS 16
  • 17. Conclusion Location is becoming mainstream • You will increasingly need to understand location to understand mobile & vice-versa • Innovation will come from new hardware, software, services and business models: - Mix the ingredients to obtain a good recipe - Start & finish with the end-user's problem • This is a global business, with 4 leaders (Nokia, Google, Apple and Microsoft) building vertically integrated "silos" • However, there is a plenty of room for entrepreneurs bringing new propositions 23
  • 18. Strategies for Mobile Companies Brussels - Paris - London contact@ptolemus.com www.ptolemus.com Frederic Bruneteau Managing Director fbruneteau@ptolemus.com Twitter: @PTOLEMUS