An overview of the 2014 Hurricane Season

1. Hurricanes 2014
Dan Reilly
National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston

2. Outline
• Review of Hurricane Hazards: surge,
wind, rain, tornadoes; which ones
are a threat to your location?
• Ways to monitor storms during the
hurricane season
• 2014 Hurricane Season forecast

3. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards
Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes
Flooding Rains
Damaging Winds
Every storm is different as far as combination of hazards
TS Allison (2001)
Ike (2008), Carla (1961)
Alicia (1983)
Andrew (1992)
Buelah (1967)

4. Hurricane Threats
STORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level due to
the storm (wind pushes water onto land); If the surge+tide
(stormtide) is greater than your elevation you will have
flooding
Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high
tide

5. Hurricane Ike: Large Category 2 Storm
Large Hurricanes Large Storm Surge!

6. Bolivar Peninsula Friday morning
Lesson learned: if under an evacuation order leave as
soon as possible, don’t wait too long!

8. Category 1 Damage in Houston
Typical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some
roof damage
Hurricane Wind Damage

9. Category 1-min. Sustained Winds
(mph)
Storm Examples Wind Impacts
Tropical
Depression
Less than 39 mph Relatively minor
Tropical
Storm
Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant
1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce
Claudette 2003 some damage
Humberto 2007
2 96 - 110 Georges 1998
Ike 2008
Extremely dangerous; will
produce extensive damage
3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage
Carla 1961
5 > 156 Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damage
Camille 1969
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

12. Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001
Rainfall From Tropical
Cyclones

13. Rule of Thumb: Divide storm speed into 100 to get potential rainfall!

16. Some Notable Flood-Producing Storms
3-71FEMA Hurricane Readiness  Coastal Communities

17. 6/16/2014 Weather.gov/houston 18
From Ashley and Ashley, 2008;
50 years of data across the U.S.

18. Stay Aware of What is Going on in Tropics
• Before storm develops look at Tropical Weather
Outlook to see which disturbances may develop
• Once the storm forms…
– Look at the detailed forecast for your area; NWS will
forecast wind speed, rainfall amount, surge height and
tornado threat
– All storms are different; will next one be more of a TS
Allison, Hurricane Ike or Hurricane Andrew?
Houston Weather Forecast Office:
http://weather.gov/houston
National Hurricane Center: http://hurricanes.gov

19. A Great Way to Stay Informed:
Tropical Weather Outlook
Text Graphic
Identifies which disturbances have potential to become a tropical storm
within 48 hours with a probability assigned to each.

20. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013
Forecast Group Number of
Named Storms
Number of
Hurricanes
Number of Major
Hurricanes (cat 3 or
larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-
2010)
12 6.5 2
Weather Channel 16 9 5
Colorado State 18 9 4
National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6
Cuba Institute 17 9
Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4
Accuweather 16 8 4
Actual ? ? ?
How did the forecast turn out?

21. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013
Forecast Group Number of
Named Storms
Number of
Hurricanes
Number of Major
Hurricanes (cat 3 or
larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-
2010)
12 6.5 2
Weather Channel 16 9 5
Colorado State 18 9 4
National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6
Cuba Institute 17 9
Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4
Accuweather 16 8 4
Actual 13 2 0
Forecast was off! Numbers well below forecast, especially hurricanes.

22. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2014
Forecast Group Number of
Named Storms
Number of
Hurricanes
Number of Major
Hurricanes (cat 3 or
larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-
2010)
12 6.5 2
Colorado State 9 3 1
Weather Underground 7-9 1-3 0-2
NOAA 8-13 3-6 2
Actual ? ? ?
Climate Pattern called El Nino setting up which normally limits
number of storms; also tropical waters cool for this time of year;
still it only takes one and Alicia and Andrew occurred during
“quiet” years
Is this information useful? Are we in the clear this year?

23. El Nino and La Nina
Climate.gov
Usually means fewer Atlantic
storms
Usually means more Atlantic
storms

25. Least active season 1983 (4 named stor
It Only Takes One

26. Weather Information from NWS
Houston/Galveston
• Web: weather.gov/houston
• Twitter: @NWSHouston
• Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherSer
vice.HoustonGalveston.gov
• Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSHouston
Forecast details presented graphically through
web and social media