Farhan helmy - masa depan tatakelola perubahan iklim new-1
1. Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
Farhan Helmy
Sekretaris Kelompok Kerja Mitigasi, DNPI
1Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
2. Outline
• Framing Kebijakan Perubahan Iklim, Tantangan dan
Status (sd April 2013)
• Tantangan
• Pengembangan Jejaring• Pengembangan Jejaring
• Capaian
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 2
4. Dimensi Persoalan
• Profil emisi global dan moda produksi masa lalu
Laporan UNEP tentang “Emissions Gap Tahun 2012
menyebutkan bahwa emisi GRK tahun 2020 bisa
mencapai 8 - 13 milyard tons di di atas angka yang
dapat ditoleransi dapat menjaga kenaikan temperatur >
2 degrees Celsius.
• Skenario pembangunan rendah emisi karbon (low
emission development scenarios/LEDs) dan
transisinyatransisinya
– Kesadaran akan pentingnya skenario rendah
emisi karbon dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang
tinggi
– Transformasi mensyaratkan transisi
– Resiko (risk) dan ketidak pastian(uncertainty)
– Shared vision dan domestikasi/institusionalisasi
• Tatakelola Global dan proses politik nasional
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 4
Sumber: UNEP Emssion Gap Report 2012
5. Perspektif Ekonomi-Politik 4I – Institution, Ideas, Information and
Interests
• Secara ekonomi-politik dinamika kebijakan
publik perubahan iklim dapat
digambarkan sebagai interaksi dinamik
perilaku aktor yang dipengaruhi oleh
informasi (information), gagasan(ideas)
dan kepentingan(interest) dalam suatu
bingkai kelembagaan (institutions) (4I)
yang beroperasi secara dinamik di tingkat
nasional/sub-nasional maupunnasional/sub-nasional maupun
internasional.
• Perubahan transformasional dari
Bussiness as Usual (BAU) merupakan
suatu dinamika institusi yang melibatkan
restrukturisasi insentif (incentives),
diskursus(discourse) dan relasi kekuasaan
(power relations)
• Kebijakan publik dan tatakelola lingkungan
pada dasarnya adalah proses politik
Sumber:Brouckhaus, M. and Angelsen, Arild(2012), Seeing
REDD+ through 4Is: A Political Economy Framework, CIFOR.
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 5
6. Beyond Business as Usual
• Proses politik dan kelembagaan sedang berlangsung dalam merumuskan
aksi, tatakelola dan mekanisme yang terintegrasi, koheren dalam
kerangka pembangunan berkelanjutan dengan mempertimbangkan
dinamika yang terjadi baik global, nasional dan sub-nasional:
– AKSI: low carbon development skenario yang efektif dan efisien RAN-GRK,
Perpres 61/2011; RAD-GRK
– TATAKELOLA: sistem pemantauan dan evaluasi melalui MRV system yang
kokoh, melibatkan pemangku kepentingan secara inklusif Sistem Inventaris
GHG Nasional(SIGN), Perpres 71/2011
– MEKANISME: mekanisme climate financing and investment yang yang efektif
dan efisien yang didukung oleh kelembagaan yang kokoh) yang dimobilisasi
melalui mekanisme nasional, global/multilateral, bilateral.
• Adanya kebutuhan untuk merespon dinamika kelembagaan yang sedang
terjadi berdasarkan kepada ilmu pengetahuan yang kokoh, yang akan
menuju kepada investasi dan inisiatif Green (Green Investment and
Initiatives).
• Dengan mengambil ketiga bidang strategis dari ilmu pengetahuan,
kebijakan dan investasi sebagai pertimbangan, pemerintah/DNPI
bertujuan untuk melihat kepada:
– Ilmu Pengetahuan untuk membangun skenario masa yang tepat dalam
memahami dinamika perubahan iklim
– Kebijakan untuk memfasilitasi dialog yang inklusif berdasarkan sains
– Investasi untuk mendorong green investment
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 6
RAN : Rencana Aksi Nasional Penurunan Emisi GRK
RAD: Rencana Aksi Daerah
NAMAs: National Appropiate Mitigation Actions
Natcom: National Comminications
BUR: Bieneal Update Report
ICA: International Consultation and Analysis
7. Kronologis Pengembangan Kelembagaan dan Kebijakan
• Perpres 46/2008, Pendirian DNPI
• DNPI (2010), Abatement Cost Curve and Low Carbon Growth Strategy (LCGS).
Mengidentifikasi lebih dari 150 potensi aksi mitigasi dan rangking serta uji coba dalam
melakukan strategi low carbon growth di 3 propinsi (Kalimantan Timur, Kalimantan Tengah
dan Jambi).
• MoE(2010), 2nd National communications(Natcom) dan GHG Inventory.
Proyeksi emisi sampai dengan 2020 sebesar 2.95 Gt CO2 dibawah BAU dari sektor energi,
perkebunan dan kehutanan, limbah industri dan lahan gambut.
Proyeksi emisi sampai dengan 2020 sebesar 2.95 Gt CO2 dibawah BAU dari sektor energi,
perkebunan dan kehutanan, limbah industri dan lahan gambut.
• Bappenas (2011), Rencana Aksi Penurunan Emisi (RAN/RAD GRK).
Terdiri dari 70 program yang terdistribusi dalam banyak sektor (land based, energi dan
lain-lain), dikategorikan secara umum kedalam kegiatan inti dan pendukung.
• MoE (2011), Sistem Inventarisasi GRK Nasional (SIGN).
Mengkombinasikan pendekatan top-down dan bottom-up dalam pengembangan sistem
inventarisasi GHG and using to
• Munculnya Mekanisme Kelembagaan Baru:
– REDD+
– Joint Credit Mechanism (Indonesia-Japan)
7Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
8. Rencana Aksi Nasianal. Emisi GRK Indonesia diperkirakan akan meningkat dari 1.72 to 2.95
GtCO2e (2000-2020). Rencana Aksi Penurunan GRK (RAN-GRK) mencakup lebih dari 70 kegiatan
yang didistribusikan ke berbagai sektor.
Sektor
Rencana Aksi
(Giga ton CO2e) K/L
26% 15%
(total 41%)
Kehutanan dan Gambut
Limbah
0.672
0.048
0,367
0.030
Kementerian Kehutanan, KLH,
Kementerian PU, Kementerian
Pertanian, KLH
Kementrian PU, KLHLimbah
Pertanian
Industri
Energi dan Transportasi
0.048
0.008
0.001
0.038
0.030
0.003
0.004
0.018
Kementrian PU, KLH
Kementerian Pertanian, KLH
Kementerian Perindustrian
Kementerian Perhubungan,
ESDM, Kementerian PU
0.767 0.422
8Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
9. Tantangan 26/41. Respon terhadap tantangan perubahan iklim harus diselesaikan dengan suatu
spektrum yang luas melalui framing dialog yang komprehensif. Konsensus dan engagement para
pihak dan dan MRV sebagai instrumen tatakelola.
Framing Dialog
• Menetapkan baseline Business as Usual (BAU)
sebagai basis aksi mitigasi nasional: domestik
(26%), dukungan internasional (41%) and credited
NAMAs
• Memilih aksi mitigasi yang efektif dan efisien (least
abatement cost) melalui proses yang terintegrasi
dan inklusif pada tingkat nasional maupun sub-
nasional.
• Membangun skema pendanaan yang efektif dan
efisien : publik, public-private, market/non-market
NAMAs – National Appropriate Mitigation Actions
efisien : publik, public-private, market/non-market
• “Proof of Concept” dalam kerangka pembangunan
rendah emisi karbon (low emission
development(LCE)/sustainable development)
Konsensus dan Engagement dalam kebijakan dan
berbagi isu teknis
• Kementrian/Lembaga, industri, LSM, dll.
Tata Kelola (governance)
• MRV sebagai alat untuk mengukur komitmen dan
kinerja
• MRV sebagai alat fasilitasi koordinasi dan
perencanaan
Masa Depan Tatakelola
Perubahan IklimStatus dan Tantangan Kebijakan dan Program Perubahan Iklim
13. Tantangan
• Menterjemahkan kesepakatan global ke tingkat
nasional/sub-nasional dan sebaliknya: nasional
(2012-2014), international (2012-2015)
• Knowledge management “lesson learnt” secara
sistematik
• “Proof of Concept” di berbagai sektor potensial
• Pengembangan policy measures strategik dan
pembangunan kapasitas untuk meresponpembangunan kapasitas untuk merespon
dinamika institusi yang terjadi saat ini
• Stakeholder engagement i.e public-private
scheme?
13Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
14. Beberapa Inspirasi
• Accelerating change, abundance and singularity yang tidak lepas
dari proses politik (Jaron Lanier, Who Own the Future, 2013)
• Dinamika peradaban yang memerlukan aksi kolektif karena
peradaban dipengaruhi dan didorong oleh interaksi virtual dan
fisik (Erich Smidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age:
Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Bussiness, 2013)
• Reduksi hirarki dan kontrol yang secara sistemik memberi
previlege pada sekelompok kepentingan sampai pada tingkat
minimum (Deric Shannon, et.al, The Accumulation Freedom:
Writings on Anarchists Economics, 2012)Writings on Anarchists Economics, 2012)
• 6 Pengerak Perubahan global: interkoneksi ekonomi global baru,
ICT, kesetimbangan politik baru, pertumbuhan tidak
berkelanjutan yang cepat, perkembangan teknologi (biologi,
biokimia, genetik dan sains material), relasi baru peradaban
dengan sistem ekologis (Al Gore, The Future, 2013).
• Reduksi fragility atau memperkuat anti-fragility (Nasim Nicholas
Tayeb, Anti Fragile, 2012)
• Memahami dinamika dan simtom krisis ekonomi:(1). Nouriel
Roubini, Crises Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of
Finance, 2011 (2). Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff,
This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, 2009)
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 14
16. Pengembangan Jejaring
Other Govt. Institutions
Science to Policy Entities
Improve links
Existingarrangements
Futurearrangements
Global Network Support
LED Pioneers
Key Policy Makers
DNPI
Other Stakeholders
Expansion of
DNPI activities
Expand collaboration
Create
Existingarrangements
Futurearrangements
National/sub-national
network support
Key Policy Makers
Key Media Partners
Social Media
Law Makers
16Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
17. Jejaring Pengetahuan (Status April 2013)
• Series of Policy and Technical Dialogue: MRV, low carbon economy, policy and
modelling, expert briefings on mitigation related issues, geo-spatial technology, 100
villages mapping initiative; green investment, innovation and productivity; service
reform dialogue on CC(SEREDI)
• Indonesia Carbon Update Network (ICU-Net, www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net) low
carbon economy, green Innovation, policy and assessment, geospatial technology,
knowledge Warehouse, open source initiative, MRV and ICU-net
portal(www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net)
• Sapporo Initiatives: strategic integrative research in the framework of low carbon
economy; integration of science and capacity building efforts in economy-wide climate
change mitigation research; geo-spatial technology; a new approach on mobilizing and
deploying financial/technical resources (GO, private)
• Asia Forum on Carbon Update (AFCU-Net, www.afcunetwork.net): networking and• Asia Forum on Carbon Update (AFCU-Net, www.afcunetwork.net): networking and
collaborative efforts on low carbon economy, technology and capacity building for
scientific communities in the Asian region.
• Green Investment, Innovation and Productivity, www.greeninvestmentindonesia.net
• University Network on Climate Change: 19 universities, Trans Kalimantan University
(more than 100 universities)
• Inisiatif Pemetaan 100 Desa.
• International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV, www.mitigationpartnership.net
• South East Asia Network on Climate Change Focal Points(SEAN-CC, www.sean-cc.org),
UNEP.
• Indonesia Climate Change Center (ICCC) (US-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership),
www.iccc-network.net
• East Asia Carbon Partnership on Low Carbon Society
• Open Source Initiative for Climate Change Governance (DNPI, WRI, ...)
17Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
20. Macro Level Assessment : We have identified ways to reduce as much as 2.3 Gt CO2e in cuts
by 2030, using existing technologies. Put another way, we have identified specific ways (entirely
executed, are to cut as much as 70 percent of our emissions by 2030.)
Reduction possibilities
• 150 different measures have been identified that can be
executed by the government, private sector and the
community, which if all activated, add up to this 70
percent of total emissions in 2030.
• The five biggest opportunities to reduce emissions are:
1). to prevent deforestation (570 Mt) (2). to prevent1). to prevent deforestation (570 Mt) (2). to prevent
fires on peatland (310 Mt) (3). - to prevent oxidation of
peatland through water management and rehabilitation
(250 Mt) (4). - to implement and enforce sustainable
forest management (SFM) (240 Mt) (5). to reforest
marginal and degraded forests (150 Mt)
• Better management of Indonesia’s land holds the key to
cutting emissions and improving economic planning. It
offers the possibility of reducing emissions by 1.9 Gt
CO2e by 2030.
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
21. Low Carbon Growth Strategies (LCGS). Exercises have been undertaking in developing
low carbon growth plan in three provincial governments shows that Low carbon growth
thinking has not been reflected in the traditional spatial planning process
Key Elements:
Sustainable economic development strategy
• Competitive strengths and weaknesses
• New sources of growth
Sector strategies
• Abatement opportunities, pilot projects, policies
requiredrequired
• Palm oil, forestry, agriculture, coal, oil & gas
District strategies
• District’s size and land use
• Emissions and potential for abatement
• GDP and employment
Implementation and enablers
• Detailed action plan
• Critical enablers required
• Estimate of total costs
Masa Depan Tatakelola
Perubahan Iklim
22. Population Dynamics . We have identified a number of population-based policy options for
reducing GHG emissions which we believe merit further development and implementation:
on Dynamics:
Source: DNPI, BKKBN, UNFPA (2012), Policy Memo, “Population Dynamics and Climate Change in Indonesia”
• Enormous improvements can be made in energy efficiency in urban areas by better evidence-based spatial
planning and allied interventions.
• Revitalizing the national family planning program can make a major contribution to Indonesia’s GHG mitigation
efforts over the next 40 years, and beyond.
• Investing heavily in the education of today’s youth is an essential component of a successful mitigation
strategy and a smooth transition to a green economy.
• Much can be done to promote – especially among the young and rising middle class – the benefits of green
choices and sustainable lifestyles to help reverse the current steep rise in the country’s carbon intensity.
Masa Depan Tatakelola
Perubahan Iklim
23. Economic Incentive for REDD+ using OSIRIS (Open Source Impacts of REDD Incentives Spreadsheet)
developed in collaboration with Conservation International (CI), Environmental Defense Fund(EDF)
and World Resource Institute
• Estimates and maps impacts of international and national
REDD+ policies on deforestation, emissions, revenue
distribution
• Applies spatially explicit data on forest cover, historical
forest cover change (2000-2005), biomass, soil carbon,
peatland, potential agricultural yield, remoteness, protected
status
• Model comprised of ~200,000 3km x 3km cells
• Land-use decisions are made locally by ~300 districts
• District crediting baselines are “nested” under a national
reference emission level (REL)reference emission level (REL)
• Districts choose whether or not to participate in REDD+
based on whether carbon revenue exceeds foregone
agricultural revenue
• Participating districts choose pattern of deforestation to
maximize carbon revenue plus agricultural revenue
• Agricultural commodity market price feedbacks
• No restriction on quantity of reductions which can be sold
• Data and economic model are free, transparent, open-
source and publicly available at
www.conservation.org/osiris
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 23
24. Definisi konsensus ‘Peatland’ oleh ICCC
Peatland is an area with an accumulation of partly
decomposed organic matter, with ash content equal to or
less than 35%, peat depth equal to or more than 50cm,
and organic carbon content (by weight) of at least 12%
www.iccc-network.net24Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
25. LULUCF Dynamics in Kalimantan
Underlying Assumptions
• The interaction between land use/land cover dynamics is poorly
understood, particularly the inter-linkages between the various
land uses due to lack of an appropriate information baseline that
requires the development of a new comprehensive approach
linking the socioeconomic and institutional drivers of these
changes.
• The need for accurate information baselines is also driven by
reporting requirements for creating a comprehensive Green House
Gases inventory at the national and subnational levels as a basis
for further development of low emission development scenarios.
• The focus has also shifted from traditional landscaper esource
management into a more strategic initiative in order to enable
development of future scenarios and assessments, and
negotiations for emerging needs of the potential carbon market.
• Landsat satellite imagery recorded from 1975 to 2012 combining
with social economic data survey was used to analyze land use
and land use change dynamics , including conflict analysis
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 25
26. Deliverables 2 – LULUCF Dynamics in Kalimantan
(continued)
Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 26
