1. POLITICAL UPHEAVAL IN UKRAINE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Fernando Alcoforado *
The occurrence of the political crisis in Ukraine, with the intensification of the protests
is to ignite a political instability that marks the region for several years. The former
Soviet Union which the Ukrainian territory was turned industrialized by means of a
structural integration involving all its republics, with the aim of ensuring greater
regional stability. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the countries of Eastern
Europe found themselves very interdependent, a fact that continues today in many
ways. Currently, Ukraine is commercially and economically dependent on Russia,
especially because this country provide you with natural gas, the country's primary
source of energy, and for being the main buyer of numerous raw materials produced by
the Ukrainian economy.
When the EU proposed to Ukraine sign a treaty of free trade, Russia, by contrast,
offered better economic agreement and, according to some versions not confirmed
officially, if the Ukrainian government did not accept it threatened to cut off the supply
of natural gas and the purchase of Ukrainian products, besides imposing customs
restrictions. This episode further sharpened the differences between the two major
Ukrainian political groups: the pro-Western and pro-Russian. The Ukrainian
government's decision not to sign the treaty of free trade with the European Union was
the spark that led to violent demonstrations that are far from over. The main leader and
organizer of the protests is Vitali Klitschko who leads the movement called Udar
("punch" in free translation), which has shown a broad front of mobilization.
Another force is currently composing the demonstrations is the political party Svoboda
(meaning "freedom"), led by Oleh Tyahnybok and has nationalistic and are often
accused of having a fascist character. Besides these fronts, there are still left groups and
anarchists who seek to gain traction with the demonstrations. This group, minority, not
objective to defend the treaty with the European Union, major cause of the
demonstrations, but fight for better social conditions and mitigation in poverty and
inequality in Ukraine. But without doubt, the most influential opposition front in the
international point of view is the Motherland, the second largest party in the country
(behind only the ruling front), led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a militant extremely close to
Yulia Tymoshenko, the former first Minister of the country.
Ukraine is a country of semi-presidential regime, ie, the cabinet and the national
executive functions are divided between the President (with five-year term) and Prime
Minister, and a more prominent influence of parliament. The ousted Ukrainian President
Viktor Yanukovich, is a controversial personality in the country because of its proRussian position which makes an enemy of a powerful and influential opposition "proWestern" position, the same who leads much of the demonstrations in the country. With
the strength of the Ukrainian government not to join the cause of the manifestations of
signing the agreement on free trade with the European Union, the militants have
demanded the resignation of President and Prime Minister of the country, described as
the major responsible for the influence Russian in national decisions.
Alleging that the protesters were using illegal forms and exaggerated violence during
the protests, the parliament passed a series of laws to repress them hard, mainly through
the use of police force. The political peak voltage of the country began on January 23,
2014, when five protesters killed in clash with police, in addition to the numerous
1

2. wounded. On the same day, negotiations have been unsuccessful, which afforded the
invasion of several government buildings in various regions of the country. Repressive
measures were severely criticized by the international community, especially after the
death of protesters in January 2014.
On 28 January, with the aim of reducing the momentum of the protests, Prime Minister
Mykola Arazov asked for his resignation. However, this strategy has not been
successful because the opponents continued in protests demanding the resignation of
President Yanukovych because his inability to ensure country political stability. He was
deposed by parliament and replaced by Oleksander Turchinov as interim president until
the elections in May. Moreover, the Ukrainian parliament awaits the location of
Yanukovich, who is the subject of an arrest warrant for "mass murder of civilians".
Before disappearing, Yanukovych said that there was no revolution in Ukraine, but a
coup d'etat.
The most likely scenario for the outcome of the political crisis in Ukraine is the division
of the country, being built with the Crimea to Russia and the alliance of the European
Union and the United States with Ukraine that would pose a real threat to Russian
interests in the region. Thus, it would be probably opened a new Cold War with
unpredictable consequences for the future of humanity. The political conflict in Ukraine
also generated a geopolitical crisis in which the interests of great powers are at stake. It
is time for humanity to provide the urgently as possible tools needed to control their
destiny and put in place a democratic government in the world capable of preventing the
occurrence of wars and ensure the survival of the human species. If everything
continues as is nowadays any structure, even the United Nations, which works in
practice, to serve the interests of the great powers, especially the United States, will be
able to rule the world. This is the worst scenario because no country however powerful
it is, or a group of countries cannot solve the global economic, political, social and
environmental problems, much less exert governance on the planet Earth. None of them
would have been entitled to exercise global power.
Marcos Troyjo graduate in political science and economics from the University of São
Paulo (USP), a doctor of sociology of international relations at USP and diplomat,
published the article Crimeia e a "ilha-mundo" (Crimea and the "world island") in the
newspaper
Folha
de
S.
Paulo
(See
website
<http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marcostroyjo/2014/03/1421858-crimeia-eailha-mundo.shtml>). According Troyo, the political crisis in Ukraine is a "zero sum
game - term used in international relations to demonstrate that when a country loses
from particular action, another necessarily win. As in basketball, no tie, only winners
and losers. The vertigo crisis in Ukraine escapes this rule. The tug of war between
Russia and the West is a game where nobody wins. Ukraine loses because it presents
the specter of greater dismembering than just the Crimea itself and emerges
subcutaneous hatred among western Ukrainians and Russians, abundant raw material
for new conflicts ".
Troyo adds that "loses the European Union amid fragile economic recovery, is forced to
show this in the Eastern countries. NATO loses because in a tray in which the
antagonist have nuclear, cannot afford the luxury to contemplate the use of conventional
forces, as did in crises in the Balkans in the 1990s. Lose the United Nations, due the
veto power of Russia, his privileged stage - the Security Council - why not adopt
resolutions to remedy the crisis. This, unlike multilateral diplomacy, invites the
2

3. occasional sewing guilds - the " Balance of Power " - typical of 19th century European
theater".
Marcos Troyjo says "lose the United States that will reverse the trend decline of its
foreign policy and revise up the defense budget. Tensions as the Crimea require costly
diplomacy and deterrence, not airplanes (drones) comfortably remotely piloted. Russia
and her allies lose. Besides the political isolation if the impasse extends, Russia will
experience deterioration as an emerging economy and flirt with the melting of her purse.
Lose the nostalgic people of Cold War. The Soviet Union not as an alternative. Russia
does not seek reissue of an empire. Sailing just for that key NATO did not walk around
it, called "Near Abroad". Moscow has plans for himself, not a worldview".
*
Alcoforado, Fernando, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the
University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning,
regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do
desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,
http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era
Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora,
Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), among others.
3