This study examined the relationship between the number of Facebook likes for candidates in Italian administrative elections and their actual election results. The study found a moderate positive correlation between Facebook likes and vote share. Several factors were found to influence this relationship, including political party, municipality size, and number of candidates. While Facebook popularity predicted the winner in 18% of races, the most popular candidate on Facebook came in second 43% of the time. The correlation between Facebook likes and election results was higher in municipalities with more candidates having Facebook pages.

1. IfLikeswerevotes…an empiricalstudy on Italianadministrativeelections Fabio [.] Giglietto [@uniurb.it] Department of CommunicationStudies| LaRiCA| Università di Urbino Carlo Bo

2. Summary Case presentation; Research hypothesis; Literature review; Methodology; Results; Conclusions.

3. Case presentation Administrative election 15/16 May 2011 9 provinces; 1177 municipalities (23 provincial capital).

4. Research hypothesis H1: Is the popularity on Facebook a good predictor of a candidate electoral performance? H2: How variables such as candidate’s political party and area, population of the municipality, number of candidates, number of candidates with Facebook page, number of potential voters and actual voters turn out affects the relationship between this two main variables.

5. Literature review (1/2) A correlation between Facebook Likes and votes share was found in 2006 midterm elections and in 2008 presidential primaries (Williams & Gulati,2007/2008/2009); In 2009, Tumasjan, Sprenger, et alt. claimed that the number of messages mentioning a party reflected the election result of federal election of the national parliament in Germany (2010)… BUT;

6. Literature review (2/2) After 2010 midterm election Facebook claimed that in 74% of races, the candidates with more "likes" won. A more scientific study discovered some correlation for Senate but negative correlation for House (Trilogy Interactive, 2010); A social election experiment run during Canadian election in 2011 claim that Facebook Likes can, in general, predict election results.

7. Methodology (1/2) Sampling strategy All the 23 provincial capitals; 229 candidates to major office; 3 provincial capital with only one or less candidate on Facebook; 102 Facebook Pages (44,5%); 300.000+ Likes. Data gathering Facebook Graph API (snapshots from 25/04 to 15/05) Ministero degli Interni e Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia

8. Methodology (2/2) For each candidate Candidate Prediction Gap = Candidate’s vote share - Facebook Likes shares For each municipality Index of prediction accurateness (0-10); Municipality Prediction Gap = AVERAGE(Candidate’s prediction Gap in the Municipality)

9. Results (1/4) 18% The winner was correctly predicted 39% Other 43% Most popular candidate on Facebook arrived second in the election 82%

10. Results (2/4) Correlazione di Pearson = 0,556

11. Results (3/4)

12. Results (4/4) Correlazione di Pearson = 0,247

13. Conclusions The popularity of a candidate on Facebook is moderately correlated to the candidate’s vote share; Extremist parties registered the highest prediction gap; The prediction gap shrinks as the number of candidate on Facebook increase.