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Mythology of Rural Broadband

                              Jon M. Peha
                    Chief Technologist, FCC
             Professor, Carnegie Mellon University


                  Freedom to Connect, March 2009


                  Opinions expressed are those of the author alone

© 2009 Jon Peha




       Myth 1: Less Interest in Rural Areas
             (So the market is right)




    There is great speculation about why a third
    less households would want broadband.
             Income? Education? Profession? Culture?
© 2009 Jon Peha
% US Households with Internet

   But rural households
   are roughly as
   interested in Internet




© 2009 Jon Peha




                  A Simpler Explanation

    • Roughly one third of rural households do not
      have access to terrestrial broadband services at
      any price.
         – (No one knows exactly how many)
         – So not surprising that % of rural households
           subscribing to broadband is one third less.




© 2009 Jon Peha
Myth 2: If customers unwilling to pay
   cost of buildout, costs exceed benefits.
     (So the market is right, version 2)

    • But the benefits of broadband do not go only to
      those who subscribe, and thus pay for build-out.
         – People decide to pay based on benefits to
           themselves, not based on benefits to everyone.
         – A free market will underinvest in any product with
           this property.
         – (Positive externalities lead to market failure.)


© 2009 Jon Peha




             Reasons for Spill-Over Benefits
    • Impact on local community
         – Some studies show broadband deployment is followed by
           increases in small business creation, job creation, and
           property values.
              • Even those who do not use the Internet benefit
              • More studies are needed!
    • Impact on Internet users outside the community
         – Other Internet users gain ability to communicate with
           residents of newly served community
              • Social networks gain members, ecommerce merchants gain
                customers, etc.
         – “Network effects” – increasing the size of a network benefits
           those who are already in it.
© 2009 Jon Peha
Myth 3: Unserved communities don’t
    gain from broadband, but not harmed
            by lack of broadband
    • More network effects: reducing the size of a
      network harms those who remain.
         – Dial-up Internet can be seen as a network.
              • Applications were once optimized for dial-up users
              • Designers now assume broadband, so Internet experience
                for dial-up users gets steadily worse.
         – Non-Internet services also degraded as broadband-
           based replacements become popular.
              • Newspapers, airline reservations, government documents,
                health care information, book stores, ...
© 2009 Jon Peha




       Myth 4: Government involvement in
          infrastructure always helps.
    • Kenya builds 140 Megawatt Kiambere Dam




    • Benefits exceed costs? A fit for the community?
         – Kenya accepts debt
         – 7000 residents displaced
         – Farms under water. 82% of income lost.
© 2009 Jon Peha
No “one size fits all” solution
   • Some communities have created wireless broadband nets
        – with public funds, private funds, or combination thereof.
        – Some boast of great success, e.g. government savings greater
          than build-out costs, advancement of other community goals.
        – Others expended a lot of money and time, with limited benefit.
   • Pittsburgh leaders hoped for citywide wifi network.
        – For Pittsburgh at that time, benefits did not seem to justify costs
        – Pittsburgh had DSL, cable. Getting 3G wireless.
   • An effective and uniquely Pittsburgh solution
        –   Wifi deployed throughout downtown, but not citywide
        –   Financially sustainable
        –   Builds on resources and ideas from Pittsburgh institutions
        –   Part of broader community goal: revitalizing downtown
© 2009 Jon Peha




                                 Lessons

    • Broadband matters
    • We should not
         – assume that the market solves all problems perfectly
         – devise initiatives that merely replicate what the market is
           already doing very well
         – assume that an effective strategy in one community can be
           replicated in another
    • We should continue to
         – seek innovative technology, business, and policy approaches
         – study past experiences, learn from successes and failures
         – let government create right environment

© 2009 Jon Peha
New Developments
    • New spectrum in 2009.
         – Spectrum availability is important for rural broadband
         – DTV transition frees up spectrum
              • Cellular carriers gain access to new licensed spectrum
              • Unlicensed devices allowed to operate in TV “white spaces”
    • New funding in 2009
         – $7.2 billion for grants and loans related to broadband
    • New information gathering begins in 2009
         – New “broadband inventory”
    • New National Broadband Plan under development


© 2009 Jon Peha




                        For More Information

    • Jon M. Peha, Bringing Broadband to Unserved Communities,
      Brookings Institution Press, July 2008.
        www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/07_broadband_peha/07_broadband_peha.pdf

    • Jon M. Peha, Wireless Pittsburgh: Sustainability of Possible
      Models for a Wireless Metropolitan-Area Network,
      New America Foundation Working Paper, Feb. 2008.
      www.newamerica.net/files/WirelessPittsburgh_Peha.pdf
    • More at www.cmu.edu/~peha




© 2009 Jon Peha

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Mythology of Rural Broadband

  • 1. Mythology of Rural Broadband Jon M. Peha Chief Technologist, FCC Professor, Carnegie Mellon University Freedom to Connect, March 2009 Opinions expressed are those of the author alone © 2009 Jon Peha Myth 1: Less Interest in Rural Areas (So the market is right) There is great speculation about why a third less households would want broadband. Income? Education? Profession? Culture? © 2009 Jon Peha
  • 2. % US Households with Internet But rural households are roughly as interested in Internet © 2009 Jon Peha A Simpler Explanation • Roughly one third of rural households do not have access to terrestrial broadband services at any price. – (No one knows exactly how many) – So not surprising that % of rural households subscribing to broadband is one third less. © 2009 Jon Peha
  • 3. Myth 2: If customers unwilling to pay cost of buildout, costs exceed benefits. (So the market is right, version 2) • But the benefits of broadband do not go only to those who subscribe, and thus pay for build-out. – People decide to pay based on benefits to themselves, not based on benefits to everyone. – A free market will underinvest in any product with this property. – (Positive externalities lead to market failure.) © 2009 Jon Peha Reasons for Spill-Over Benefits • Impact on local community – Some studies show broadband deployment is followed by increases in small business creation, job creation, and property values. • Even those who do not use the Internet benefit • More studies are needed! • Impact on Internet users outside the community – Other Internet users gain ability to communicate with residents of newly served community • Social networks gain members, ecommerce merchants gain customers, etc. – “Network effects” – increasing the size of a network benefits those who are already in it. © 2009 Jon Peha
  • 4. Myth 3: Unserved communities don’t gain from broadband, but not harmed by lack of broadband • More network effects: reducing the size of a network harms those who remain. – Dial-up Internet can be seen as a network. • Applications were once optimized for dial-up users • Designers now assume broadband, so Internet experience for dial-up users gets steadily worse. – Non-Internet services also degraded as broadband- based replacements become popular. • Newspapers, airline reservations, government documents, health care information, book stores, ... © 2009 Jon Peha Myth 4: Government involvement in infrastructure always helps. • Kenya builds 140 Megawatt Kiambere Dam • Benefits exceed costs? A fit for the community? – Kenya accepts debt – 7000 residents displaced – Farms under water. 82% of income lost. © 2009 Jon Peha
  • 5. No “one size fits all” solution • Some communities have created wireless broadband nets – with public funds, private funds, or combination thereof. – Some boast of great success, e.g. government savings greater than build-out costs, advancement of other community goals. – Others expended a lot of money and time, with limited benefit. • Pittsburgh leaders hoped for citywide wifi network. – For Pittsburgh at that time, benefits did not seem to justify costs – Pittsburgh had DSL, cable. Getting 3G wireless. • An effective and uniquely Pittsburgh solution – Wifi deployed throughout downtown, but not citywide – Financially sustainable – Builds on resources and ideas from Pittsburgh institutions – Part of broader community goal: revitalizing downtown © 2009 Jon Peha Lessons • Broadband matters • We should not – assume that the market solves all problems perfectly – devise initiatives that merely replicate what the market is already doing very well – assume that an effective strategy in one community can be replicated in another • We should continue to – seek innovative technology, business, and policy approaches – study past experiences, learn from successes and failures – let government create right environment © 2009 Jon Peha
  • 6. New Developments • New spectrum in 2009. – Spectrum availability is important for rural broadband – DTV transition frees up spectrum • Cellular carriers gain access to new licensed spectrum • Unlicensed devices allowed to operate in TV “white spaces” • New funding in 2009 – $7.2 billion for grants and loans related to broadband • New information gathering begins in 2009 – New “broadband inventory” • New National Broadband Plan under development © 2009 Jon Peha For More Information • Jon M. Peha, Bringing Broadband to Unserved Communities, Brookings Institution Press, July 2008. www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/07_broadband_peha/07_broadband_peha.pdf • Jon M. Peha, Wireless Pittsburgh: Sustainability of Possible Models for a Wireless Metropolitan-Area Network, New America Foundation Working Paper, Feb. 2008. www.newamerica.net/files/WirelessPittsburgh_Peha.pdf • More at www.cmu.edu/~peha © 2009 Jon Peha