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European 3PL Summit Brussels
                          November 24, 2010              1




           Monika Ribar
           November 24, 2010




European 3PL Summit
      Brussels
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                      November 24, 2010              2



Before 2007 you didn’t need a crystal ball …

• Business history was repeating itself
  from year to year
• Cyclicality of supply and demand
  was predictable
• Growth was a given
• Infrastructure congestion was the biggest problem
• The western economies were the main
  center of gravity
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                                                            November 24, 2010                      3


World trade collapse in 2009 and recovery in 2010

                  110                                                                                                                  65
World trade has
always been       105                                                                                                                  60

volatile but
                  100                                                                                                                  55
the 2009 dip
was exceptional
                  95                                                                                                                   50
and resulted in
corresponding     90                                                                                                                   45
figures
                  85                                                                                                                   40


                  80                                                                                                                   35


                  75                                                                                                                   30
                        2000



                                   2001



                                            2002



                                                     2003



                                                              2004



                                                                         2005



                                                                                     2006



                                                                                               2007



                                                                                                       2008



                                                                                                                 2009



                                                                                                                          2010
                               German ifo business climate index (lhs)          U.S. PMI index (rhs)      Global PMI index (rhs)

                          Source: ISM institute for supply management, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                                                                                                                                         November 24, 2010                     4


Macro update: slowdown in second half 2010
  110                                         PMI vs. ifo index                                                                               65   Leading indicators pointing to slowdown of growth …
  105                                                                                                                                         60   • Most indicators have returned to pre-recession levels but have
  100                                                                                                                                         55
                                                                                                                                                     been contracting for the last several month, indicating that the
                                                                                                                                                     upturn is losing momentum
   95                                                                                                                                         50


   90                                                                                                                                         45
                                                                                                                                                   … and lower support from inventory restocking …
   85                                                                                                                                         40
                                                                                                                                                   • Restocking has come to an end: 49% of U.S. shippers noted
   80                                                                                                                                         35     more shipping activity in Q2 due to inventory restocking. Only
   75                                                                                                                                         30
                                                                                                                                                     35% of shippers expected more shipping activity in Q3 as
                                                                                                                                                     inventory restocking had peaked*
        2000



                   2001



                            2002



                                     2003



                                              2004



                                                         2005



                                                                        2006



                                                                                      2007



                                                                                                    2008



                                                                                                                  2009



                                                                                                                                2010
               German ifo business climate index (lhs)             U.S. PMI index (rhs)                Global PMI index (rhs)

Source: ISM institute for supply management, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
                                                                                                                                                   • Among those shippers that have already begun restocking,
                                                                                                                                                     41% plan to stop rebuilding inventories in H2 2010, while 31%
                                                                                                                                                     indicated H1 2011*
  160                               Consumer Confidence Index
  140
                                                                                                                                                   … and most importantly consumption
  120
                                                                                                                                                   • Consumer confidence stagnating on a low level
  100
                                                                                                                                                   • Moderate peak season (ocean freight) early in year
   80


   60


   40
                                                                                                                                                     The exceptionally high growth rates seen in H1 2010 are not
   20                                                                                                                                                being repeated in H2.
        2000



                    2001



                             2002



                                       2003



                                                 2004



                                                            2005



                                                                               2006



                                                                                             2007



                                                                                                           2008



                                                                                                                         2009



                                                                                                                                       2010




                                              U.S. Consumer Confidence Index

Source: U.S. Conference Board
                                                                                                                                                     *Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Shipper Survey, August 2010
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                                     November 24, 2010             5


Emerging industry trends

                     Trends                                            Reaction
Increased volatility of rates
                                                    Growth – look for profitable and sustainable
Increased pressure on logistics costs               business opportunities

Increased unpredictability in market demand –       Flexibility – be faster and smarter
a challenge for supply chain management
                                                    Customer focus – get closer, create value,
Increased outsourcing of logistics and more         save costs
focus on entire supply chain


   3PL Study highlights an overall increase in outsourcing of logistics services.

   However shipper collaboration with 3PLs is not in line with 3PL expectation or opportunity
   and the low demand for integrated logistics solutions offers opportunities.

   Shippers and 3PLs must collaborate more to create more value.
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                            November 24, 2010              6



Flexibility

• Accept change as the new normal – prepare for the
  unpredictable (continuous contingency planning)
• Enable organization to respond quickly to changes
  in the market
• Streamline internal processes to ensure rapid responses
  to customer requests
• Anticipate market trends and their impact on customer
  needs
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                            November 24, 2010              7



Growth

• Enforce internal transparency to enable
  profitable growth
• Strengthen and streamline sales force to support
  targeted growth within strategic markets and with
  strategic customers
• Increase collaboration with customers and partners on
  strategic and operational levels
• Grow in mature markets by offering end-to-end-solutions
• Sell expertise and increase market share in emerging
  markets (BRIC states)
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                                          November 24, 2010              8


BRIC area remains growth engine

Real GDP growth forecasts IMF                           Regional development forecast

         % yoy               2008 2009 2010 2011       • Global economy: Asia forging ahead, Europe
USA                           0.4   -2.4   3.1   2.6     lagging behind
Japan                        -1.2   -5.2   1.9   2.0   • The 2010/2011 World Transport Report
Euro area                     0.6   -4.1   1.0   1.5     estimates doubling of freight volume in BRIC
UK                            0.5   -4.9   1.3   2.5     countries in the next 15 years
Canada                        0.4   -2.6   3.1   3.2   • USA: No sweeping economic revival
Advanced                                               • Eurozone: still not a self-sustaining upswing
                             0.5    -3.2   2.3   2.4
economies
                                                       • South East Asia: Coming out of recession at
China                        9.6     8.7 10.0    9.9
                                                         full speed
India                        7.3     5.7 8.8     8.4
Brazil                       5.1    -0.2 5.5     4.1   • Latin America: Mixed recovery pattern
Russia                       5.6    -7.9 4.0     3.3   • Central & Eastern Europe: Highly varied
Emerging & dev.                                          growth trends
                             6.1    2.4    6.3   6.5
economies
World                        3.0    -0.6   4.2   4.3

Source: IMF WEO April 2010
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                                                        November 24, 2010              9



Customer focus

• Get under your customers’ skin – become involved in
  customer forecasting and logistics planning
• Provide and increase in-depth industry expertise
• Increase supply chain effectiveness,
  create value, save costs
    • Increase communication – help customers
      understand the potential of supply chain
      optimization
• Improve integrated, automated IT solutions
European 3PL Summit Brussels
                              November 24, 2010              10



The world has changed but …

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The Recession Lessons That Will Endure, Monika Ribar, CEO, Panalpina

  • 1. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 1 Monika Ribar November 24, 2010 European 3PL Summit Brussels
  • 2. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 2 Before 2007 you didn’t need a crystal ball … • Business history was repeating itself from year to year • Cyclicality of supply and demand was predictable • Growth was a given • Infrastructure congestion was the biggest problem • The western economies were the main center of gravity
  • 3. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 3 World trade collapse in 2009 and recovery in 2010 110 65 World trade has always been 105 60 volatile but 100 55 the 2009 dip was exceptional 95 50 and resulted in corresponding 90 45 figures 85 40 80 35 75 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 German ifo business climate index (lhs) U.S. PMI index (rhs) Global PMI index (rhs) Source: ISM institute for supply management, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
  • 4. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 4 Macro update: slowdown in second half 2010 110 PMI vs. ifo index 65 Leading indicators pointing to slowdown of growth … 105 60 • Most indicators have returned to pre-recession levels but have 100 55 been contracting for the last several month, indicating that the upturn is losing momentum 95 50 90 45 … and lower support from inventory restocking … 85 40 • Restocking has come to an end: 49% of U.S. shippers noted 80 35 more shipping activity in Q2 due to inventory restocking. Only 75 30 35% of shippers expected more shipping activity in Q3 as inventory restocking had peaked* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 German ifo business climate index (lhs) U.S. PMI index (rhs) Global PMI index (rhs) Source: ISM institute for supply management, Ifo Institute for Economic Research • Among those shippers that have already begun restocking, 41% plan to stop rebuilding inventories in H2 2010, while 31% indicated H1 2011* 160 Consumer Confidence Index 140 … and most importantly consumption 120 • Consumer confidence stagnating on a low level 100 • Moderate peak season (ocean freight) early in year 80 60 40 The exceptionally high growth rates seen in H1 2010 are not 20 being repeated in H2. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Source: U.S. Conference Board *Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Shipper Survey, August 2010
  • 5. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 5 Emerging industry trends Trends Reaction Increased volatility of rates Growth – look for profitable and sustainable Increased pressure on logistics costs business opportunities Increased unpredictability in market demand – Flexibility – be faster and smarter a challenge for supply chain management Customer focus – get closer, create value, Increased outsourcing of logistics and more save costs focus on entire supply chain 3PL Study highlights an overall increase in outsourcing of logistics services. However shipper collaboration with 3PLs is not in line with 3PL expectation or opportunity and the low demand for integrated logistics solutions offers opportunities. Shippers and 3PLs must collaborate more to create more value.
  • 6. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 6 Flexibility • Accept change as the new normal – prepare for the unpredictable (continuous contingency planning) • Enable organization to respond quickly to changes in the market • Streamline internal processes to ensure rapid responses to customer requests • Anticipate market trends and their impact on customer needs
  • 7. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 7 Growth • Enforce internal transparency to enable profitable growth • Strengthen and streamline sales force to support targeted growth within strategic markets and with strategic customers • Increase collaboration with customers and partners on strategic and operational levels • Grow in mature markets by offering end-to-end-solutions • Sell expertise and increase market share in emerging markets (BRIC states)
  • 8. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 8 BRIC area remains growth engine Real GDP growth forecasts IMF Regional development forecast % yoy 2008 2009 2010 2011 • Global economy: Asia forging ahead, Europe USA 0.4 -2.4 3.1 2.6 lagging behind Japan -1.2 -5.2 1.9 2.0 • The 2010/2011 World Transport Report Euro area 0.6 -4.1 1.0 1.5 estimates doubling of freight volume in BRIC UK 0.5 -4.9 1.3 2.5 countries in the next 15 years Canada 0.4 -2.6 3.1 3.2 • USA: No sweeping economic revival Advanced • Eurozone: still not a self-sustaining upswing 0.5 -3.2 2.3 2.4 economies • South East Asia: Coming out of recession at China 9.6 8.7 10.0 9.9 full speed India 7.3 5.7 8.8 8.4 Brazil 5.1 -0.2 5.5 4.1 • Latin America: Mixed recovery pattern Russia 5.6 -7.9 4.0 3.3 • Central & Eastern Europe: Highly varied Emerging & dev. growth trends 6.1 2.4 6.3 6.5 economies World 3.0 -0.6 4.2 4.3 Source: IMF WEO April 2010
  • 9. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 9 Customer focus • Get under your customers’ skin – become involved in customer forecasting and logistics planning • Provide and increase in-depth industry expertise • Increase supply chain effectiveness, create value, save costs • Increase communication – help customers understand the potential of supply chain optimization • Improve integrated, automated IT solutions
  • 10. European 3PL Summit Brussels November 24, 2010 10 The world has changed but …