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Harnessing the Mobile Internet December 15, 2009 Eliot Weinman President, Events and Media Division Yankee Group Conference Chair, 4G World and Mobile Internet World 1
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Demand for Mobile Broadband Consumers have an insatiable demand for mobile broadband data, wherever and whenever they can find it.
Growth of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: IDC, 12/09
Growing Demand for Mobile Data Worldwide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources: Vodafone, Telstra, Verizon and AT&T Operators worldwide have experienced significant growth of data revenues:
Market consolidation, flat voice revenues yield a market driven by the data revenue strategies of the Big 4 Data Revenue as a % of Wireless Service Revenue Source: Yankee Group, Banc of America Securities  Market Share YE 2004 2Q 2009 Verizon Wireless 25.2% 31.8% AT&T 28.3% 28.7% Sprint 23.5% 18.0% T-Mobile 10.0% 12.2% Others 13% 9.3%
Mobile data market will continue to grow in all regions © Copyright 1997-2009 Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Mobile Data Share of Service Revenues
Mobile ARPU is feeling the pinch
The revenue growth challenge Source: Yankee Group, Transforming Network Operators into Anywhere Providers, February 2009 © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Massive Traffic Growth will Fundamentally Shift Service Economics Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
Today’s Mobile Data Network Architecture Not Ready for 4G ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Add picture of US with 3 data centers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mobile Operator Challenges on the Path to 4G ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next Generation Radio Technologies are Coming Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
4G Operator Deployment Strategies  Driven by Legacy Position and Competitive Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],LTE NTT docomo Super 3G/LTE GSM/HSDPA
Mobile Broadband: Let the 4G Wars Begin
Building Mobile Internet Networks is Complex ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
State of the Industry – Handset & Device Ecosystem Trends Laptops Netbooks 2G Phones MIDs 3G Smart Phones
Current Mobile Internet Devices – 3G Smartphones WiFi CDMA EVDO revA 3G HSPA ARM1176JZF  620MHz Qualcomm  MSM7201A 528 MHz Processor Device Samsung  Instinct Qualcomm  MSM7600 528 MHz Blackberry  Bold Storm Connectivity Palm Pre N97 Apple  3G iPhone HTC G1 Laptops Netbooks 3G Smartphones 2G Phones MIDs
Current Mobile Internet Devices - Consumer Electronics Laptop Netbook Mobile Internet Devices Smartphone UMPC  Navigation Gaming Communications WiFi WiMAX 3G/LTE Atom Moorestown Processor Device Entertainment Connectivity
Current Mobile Internet Devices - Netbooks Laptop Netbooks Smartphone WiFi WiMAX 3G/LTE Atom Moorestown Processor Device Lenovo Notebook Connectivity Asus Eee HP Mini Acer  Aspire Sony Vaio P   Dell  Inspiron MIDs
Clearwire 4G Device Portfolio Starts to Take Shape ,[object Object],[object Object],Intel Echo Peak Embedded WiMAX modules WiMAX Ready Netbooks  from Acer, Asus, Dell, Fujitsu, Lenovo, Panasonic, Samsung and Toshiba Samsung Mondi  WiMAX/WiFi MID Desktop Modem   Clear™  Spot Personal WiFi Hotspot  USB Dongle Single and Dual Mode Modems PC ExpressCards
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4G Enablers to Advancing Apps & Services
M-commerce and Mobile apps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Apple leads in consumer app download rates on smart phones Base: People with a smartphone who have downloaded apps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Games and search are the most frequently downloaded mobile applications Base: People with a smartphone who have downloaded apps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mobile users are most likely to perform banking functions of all mobile transaction types Base: People with interest in mobile transactions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
More than a third of mobile phone comparison shoppers buy online instead of in the store Base: People who compare prices in-store on their mobile ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mobile Websites outpace mobile apps for price comparison shopping Base: People who compare prices in-store on their mobile ,[object Object],[object Object]
Enterprise Mobile Application Trends
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolution of Mobile Internet Devices  Yankee Group Perspective   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New Elements Enabled by the Open Mobile Internet Global Handset Forecast: Unit Volume Share by Category Source: Yankee Group, 2008                                                                                                                                              
Expect Accelerated Smart Phone Adoption Yankee Group Attitude and Behavior Surveys Anywhere Consumer (U.S.) 2009 43 percent likely or very likely to purchase a smartphone
Smartphone Usage will Accelerate the Mobile Internet
Multiple device & OS categories will drive traffic Traffic Demand Estimates for Broadband Mobile Phone and Connected Computing Devices (U.S. Market) Source: Yankee Group, 2009
One Internet but different user experiences Small screen Mobile phone or PDA access via embedded wireless connection Big screen Laptop access via embedded or external wireless modem
Mobile Internet’s parallel worlds – defining two opportunities
Infotainment will drive small screen mobile Internet revenues Western European Mobile Data Revenues by Major Service Category* * Excludes data cards/dongles
Mobile Internet Service Revenue Forecast (combined France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK)
App Stores – Secret Sauce of Mobile Internet Devices? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BlackBerry App World™ A World of Possibilities
Mobile Internet Devices & Apps:  Key questions that will shape the future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why will the Mobile Internet Continue to Grow so Fast? ,[object Object],The Mobile Internet Behaves like a Flywheel
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mobile Operator Traffic is Going Off Portal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Open mobile internet initiatives
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Corporate Mobile Websites
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Yankee Group’s Mobile Web Report Card
The #1 problem: finding a mobile site ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
News is a tough business Company Address Score User Device Network Design Effectiveness Notes Google News google.com/m/news 73   ­ ­  ,[object Object],[object Object],Yahoo News yahoo.com 73  ­  ­  ,[object Object],[object Object],Reuters reuters.com 61 ­ ­ ­  ­ Few mobile-specific features Associated Press apnews.com 61 ­  ­ ­  ,[object Object],[object Object],Weather.com www.weather.com 57  ­ ­ ­  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Turner Broadcasting cnn.com 55 ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ Pushes too many properties without knowing what the user wants Wall Street Journal m.wsj.com 53 ­ ­ ­  ­ Clean, but non-standard device detection and no mobile value USA Today m.usatoday.com 51 ­   ­ ­ Missteps in adapting to devices and network limitations BBC bbc.co.uk/mobile 51 ­ ­ ­ ­  Three different sites in one, but all push too much content at mobile users Microsoft msn.com 49 ­  ­   ,[object Object],[object Object],New York Times nytimes.com 44  ­   ­ Content overload for smaller phones despite good design
The news winners
Sports was an upset Company Address Score User Device Network Design Effectiveness Notes Major League Baseball mlb.com 71  ­ ­  ­ Content adapted to differing screen sizes ESPN/Disney m.espn.com 64  ­ ­ ­ ­ ,[object Object],[object Object],Yahoo.com wireless.rivals.com 58  ­ ­  ­ ,[object Object],[object Object],National Football League nfl.com 53 ­ ­  ­  Pages too large, not as focused as MLB.com CBS Sports cbssports.com 53 ­ ­  ­  Too much content, especially video NBC Sports nbcsports.com 51 ­ ­  ­  Too much content Fox Sports foxsports.com 42   ­  ­ ,[object Object],[object Object]
Two faces of MLB.com
Search had the highest score of all sites rated Company Address Score User Device Network Design Effectiveness Notes Google google.com 81    ­  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Yahoo yahoo.com 76    ­  ,[object Object],[object Object],Microsoft m.bing.com 58   ­ ­ ­ ,[object Object],[object Object],Taptu taptu.com 55  ­  ­  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Best of the Mobile Web © Copyright 2009. 4G World. All rights reserved. September 18, 2009 Google had the highest score of all sites rated
But mobile carriers? Not so Anywhere Company Address Score User Device Network Design Effectiveness Notes Sprint/Nextel m.sprint.com 53 ­ ­  ­ ­ ,[object Object],[object Object],Verizon Wireless mobile.vzw.com 34      ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],T Mobile t-mobile.com 12      ,[object Object],[object Object],AT&T wireless.att.com 12      No mobile site Verizon www.verizonwireless.com 11      No mobile site
Examples
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Future of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Video will dominate mobile IP traffic by 2013
The Future of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Unlocking the mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Location ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Identity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Identity Example: TAT Augmented ID ,[object Object]
Presence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Modality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Personalization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Future of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Social Networking ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Comscore
Facebook ,[object Object],Source: Comscore Aug 2009 and Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, 10/2009
The Future of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Integrated Mobile Internet Apps Source: Qualcomm
The Future of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Future of the Mobile Internet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Leading example of an Revolutionary/“Out of the Box” product - Kindle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Putting it all together: MIT’s Sixth Sense ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1 Q & A Eliot Weinman President, Events and Media Division Yankee Group Conference Chair, 4G World and Mobile Internet World

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Harnessing-Mobile-Internet

  • 1. Harnessing the Mobile Internet December 15, 2009 Eliot Weinman President, Events and Media Division Yankee Group Conference Chair, 4G World and Mobile Internet World 1
  • 2.
  • 3. Demand for Mobile Broadband Consumers have an insatiable demand for mobile broadband data, wherever and whenever they can find it.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Market consolidation, flat voice revenues yield a market driven by the data revenue strategies of the Big 4 Data Revenue as a % of Wireless Service Revenue Source: Yankee Group, Banc of America Securities Market Share YE 2004 2Q 2009 Verizon Wireless 25.2% 31.8% AT&T 28.3% 28.7% Sprint 23.5% 18.0% T-Mobile 10.0% 12.2% Others 13% 9.3%
  • 7. Mobile data market will continue to grow in all regions © Copyright 1997-2009 Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Mobile Data Share of Service Revenues
  • 8. Mobile ARPU is feeling the pinch
  • 9. The revenue growth challenge Source: Yankee Group, Transforming Network Operators into Anywhere Providers, February 2009 © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 10. Massive Traffic Growth will Fundamentally Shift Service Economics Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Next Generation Radio Technologies are Coming Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
  • 15.
  • 16. Mobile Broadband: Let the 4G Wars Begin
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. State of the Industry – Handset & Device Ecosystem Trends Laptops Netbooks 2G Phones MIDs 3G Smart Phones
  • 20. Current Mobile Internet Devices – 3G Smartphones WiFi CDMA EVDO revA 3G HSPA ARM1176JZF 620MHz Qualcomm MSM7201A 528 MHz Processor Device Samsung Instinct Qualcomm MSM7600 528 MHz Blackberry Bold Storm Connectivity Palm Pre N97 Apple 3G iPhone HTC G1 Laptops Netbooks 3G Smartphones 2G Phones MIDs
  • 21. Current Mobile Internet Devices - Consumer Electronics Laptop Netbook Mobile Internet Devices Smartphone UMPC Navigation Gaming Communications WiFi WiMAX 3G/LTE Atom Moorestown Processor Device Entertainment Connectivity
  • 22. Current Mobile Internet Devices - Netbooks Laptop Netbooks Smartphone WiFi WiMAX 3G/LTE Atom Moorestown Processor Device Lenovo Notebook Connectivity Asus Eee HP Mini Acer Aspire Sony Vaio P Dell Inspiron MIDs
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. 4G Enablers to Advancing Apps & Services
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Expect Accelerated Smart Phone Adoption Yankee Group Attitude and Behavior Surveys Anywhere Consumer (U.S.) 2009 43 percent likely or very likely to purchase a smartphone
  • 36. Smartphone Usage will Accelerate the Mobile Internet
  • 37. Multiple device & OS categories will drive traffic Traffic Demand Estimates for Broadband Mobile Phone and Connected Computing Devices (U.S. Market) Source: Yankee Group, 2009
  • 38. One Internet but different user experiences Small screen Mobile phone or PDA access via embedded wireless connection Big screen Laptop access via embedded or external wireless modem
  • 39. Mobile Internet’s parallel worlds – defining two opportunities
  • 40. Infotainment will drive small screen mobile Internet revenues Western European Mobile Data Revenues by Major Service Category* * Excludes data cards/dongles
  • 41. Mobile Internet Service Revenue Forecast (combined France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK)
  • 42.
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  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. Open mobile internet initiatives
  • 49.
  • 51.
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  • 53.
  • 55.
  • 56. Two faces of MLB.com
  • 57.
  • 58. Best of the Mobile Web © Copyright 2009. 4G World. All rights reserved. September 18, 2009 Google had the highest score of all sites rated
  • 59.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. Video will dominate mobile IP traffic by 2013
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
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  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76. Integrated Mobile Internet Apps Source: Qualcomm
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81. 1 Q & A Eliot Weinman President, Events and Media Division Yankee Group Conference Chair, 4G World and Mobile Internet World

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Market consolidation: 87% at YE 2004; 94% at YE 2008