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Climate Change, Agricultural Policy and Poverty Reduction

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Presentation by Mark W. Rosegrant (International Food Policy Research Institute) at the 4th Brussels Development Briefing on February 13, 2008

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Climate Change, Agricultural Policy and Poverty Reduction Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Presentation given to the Briefing Session No 4: The Climate Challenge and the ACP Responses, Session 2: Impact of climate change on rural development and the urgency to act , Brussels, Belgium, February 13, 2008
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate Change and Variability Impacts
Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & Variability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate change will reduce production growth in many of the poorest countries and regions Percent change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080 Source: Cline 2007
Adaptation Strategies
Climate Change Adaptation ,[object Object]
Much Adaptation is Extension of Good Development Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Effective Adaptation Strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Critical Concerns for Effective Adaptation Strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pro-Poor Mitigation: Constraints and Opportunities
Critical Step: Post-Kyoto International Climate Change Regime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sources of GHG Emissions ,[object Object],60% 18% 14% 4% 4%
Pro-Poor Climate Mitigation Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Estimated Potential Emission Savings and Costs by Sector Source: Adapted from various estimates, Stern Review, pp. 244-63 22-33 40.0 Fossil fuel related, excluding bioenergy 3-5 4.1 Waste and fugitive emissions, industrial processes 25 2.0-3.0 Bioenergy 27 1.0 Agriculture (methane & nitrous oxide) 20-27 1.0-2.0 Land management practices 5-15 1.0-2.0 Afforestation and Reforestation 2-4 3.5-5.0 Deforestation Average Annual Cost($/tCO 2 ) ~2025-2050 2050 Annual Emissions Savings (GtCO 2 ) Sector
But minimal carbon trades in agriculture in developing countries ,[object Object],[object Object]
Constraints to Pro-Poor Mitigation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],Constraints to Pro-Poor Mitigation
Expanding Pro-Poor Mitigation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions
Investing in Climate Change for the Poor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investing in Climate Change for the Poor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Climate Change, Agricultural Policy and Poverty Reduction

  • 1. Climate Change, Agricultural Policy and Poverty Reduction Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Presentation given to the Briefing Session No 4: The Climate Challenge and the ACP Responses, Session 2: Impact of climate change on rural development and the urgency to act , Brussels, Belgium, February 13, 2008
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  • 3. Climate Change and Variability Impacts
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  • 5. Climate change will reduce production growth in many of the poorest countries and regions Percent change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080 Source: Cline 2007
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  • 11. Pro-Poor Mitigation: Constraints and Opportunities
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  • 15. Estimated Potential Emission Savings and Costs by Sector Source: Adapted from various estimates, Stern Review, pp. 244-63 22-33 40.0 Fossil fuel related, excluding bioenergy 3-5 4.1 Waste and fugitive emissions, industrial processes 25 2.0-3.0 Bioenergy 27 1.0 Agriculture (methane & nitrous oxide) 20-27 1.0-2.0 Land management practices 5-15 1.0-2.0 Afforestation and Reforestation 2-4 3.5-5.0 Deforestation Average Annual Cost($/tCO 2 ) ~2025-2050 2050 Annual Emissions Savings (GtCO 2 ) Sector
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  • 22.