Rapid Change and the Future of Work
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The document discusses how the rate of change outside organizations is accelerating and the importance of organizations keeping pace. It notes that in recent decades, the average lifespan of S&P 500 companies has dropped from 67 years in the 1920s to just 15 years currently. Other trends highlighted include the growth of social media, big data, crowdsourcing, and new forms of online collaboration and financing. Virtual worlds and 3D printing are presented as emerging technologies that could further transform how products are developed and businesses are structured in the future.
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Rapid Change and the Future of Work
- 2. "...when the rate of change outside an organization is greater than the rate of change inside, the end is near...." Jack Welch…
- 3. Increasing pace of change Of original Forbes 100 in 1917 - 61 companies ceased to exist by 1987 - 18 of remaining 39 underperformed market by 20% - Only 2 beat market index (GE & Eastman Kodak) - Only 1 (1%) today! Average S&P 500 company lifespan − 1920s – 67 years − 2010s – 15 years Dr. Richard Foster, Yale, Sept 2012 − Today's rate of change is at faster pace than ever − By 2020 prediction is > 75% of S&P 500 will be companies we do not know about today http://www.fastcompany.com/3001444/what-zara-pg-and-berlitz-know-about-agility
- 4. Did You Know: Shift Happens http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY&feature=search 1. What trends do you recognize? 2. How are these trends affecting you and your organization? 3. What does this have to do with networks?
- 5. Growth Time Information and knowledge Human absorptive capacity Human capacity cannot keep up… Adapted from Cohen & Levinthal 1989
- 6. A Big Bang in the Information Universe 2.7Bln daily comments and ”likes” on Facebook 500Mln daily posts on Twitter and Weibo combined 200k videos uploaded to YouTube daily http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet, Tomas Larsson, 2012
- 7. Big Data is now big money Tomas Larsson, Sep 2012 http://hbr.org/2012/10/data-scientist- the-sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century/ar/1
- 8. ”No one knows everything, everyone knows something, all knowledge resides in humanity.”networks Adapted from Lévy 1997 Six degrees of separation - Milgram, 1967
- 9. 3.74 degrees of separation! Source: Facebook Aug 2012 5 mln active monthly users in Sweden
- 11. Growing social media landscapes http://www.resonancechina.com/2012/03/13/updated-2012-china-social-media-landscape/
- 12. Social Media – the connected world Engagement Commerce Analytics Influence Platforms - Integrators Enterprise Consultants Social-Local- Mobile Gaming Mahaley 2012
- 13. People > 45 years becoming more active Edison Research, 2012 - US-based study % age group with personal profile on any social networking website
- 14. Social media gaining in influence on buying decisions Which ONE social networking site or service influences your buying decisions the most? Edison Research, 2012 - US-based study
- 15. 67% in USA do not follow a brand in social media and for those who do, no one brand dominates Of 332 responses Edison Research, 2012 Think about the companies, brands, products and services you enjoy following on social networking sites. What is the first ONE that comes to mind?
- 16. Creation > curation 46% Creators: Create and post photos, videos, etc. 41% Curators: Find and post photos, videos, etc. http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Online-Pictures.aspx
- 17. The wisdom of the crowd Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Hinton 2007 Accurate Up-to-date
- 18. History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Steam engine Internal combustion engine Microelectronics Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C Schön 2008 Third industrial revolution?
- 19. Where have the traditional sources of sustainable competitive advantage been? #1 Innovation Networks of relationships Brand & Reputation FIRM Kaye 1993
- 20. #1 Innovation Networks of relationships Brand & Reputation FIRM T Where are tomorrow’s sources of sustainable competitive advantage? Teigland 2010
- 21. How Wrapp’s friend-to-friend marketing platform drives sales Converting online relationships to offline sales
- 22. The “Open Innovation” Opportunity Cloud – Powered by technologies Mahaley 2012
- 23. Mahaley 2012 Crowdsourcing product and service innovations from customers
- 24. Open innovation in high tech For 10 years IBM has hosted “ideajams” on specific challenges, i.e., text-based chats with hundreds, even thousands of contributors from inside and outside IBM. “The 2006 Innovation JamTM brought together >150,000 people from 104 countries and 67 companies. 10 new IBM businesses were launched with seed investment of $100 mln.” Mahaley 2012
- 25. Open innovation in health care DEMO! Mahaley 2012
- 26. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
- 27. Into the future…. Who develops it? Who manufactures it? Who finances it?
- 28. 30% profit margin in commodity business
- 29. sketchstreet
- 30. From clothing to home products….
- 31. Open innovation in automotive design/production “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azCRuwtE_n0
- 32. The Firm The Collectivevs E.g., Microsoft ~ Built by employees within organizational boundaries E.g., Linux ~ Built by users and distributed freely regardless of affiliation Models of Knowledge Creation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
- 33. “Open source” … not just about software anymore
- 34. OpenSimulator: A value-creation ecosystem Academic Entrepreneur Hobbyist Large Firm Non-profit Local Public Federal Public Research Inst SME Employee Periphery Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012 USD 5.5mln in development costs
- 35. Into the future…. Who develops it? Who manufactures it? Who finances it?
- 36. 3D printing becoming more commonplace… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrrF_MVMlZw
- 37. …and it’s no longer just for companies 3D scanning apps Affordable home 3D printers In stores near you
- 38. Open Source + 3d Printing + InternetComm http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/ $60,000 $150
- 39. Where is all this happening? Online
- 40. Access to 24x7 global workforce Matchmakers: USD 1bln industry
- 41. Increasing supply of freelance talent globally https://www.elance.com/trends/talent-available Global Online Employment Report Q2 2012 at Elance
- 42. The new market place A shift by companies from being “problem solvers” to “solution finders” Ericsson & Augur 2011
- 43. Shifting market logic Ericsson & Augur 2011
- 44. Into the future…. Who develops it? Who manufactures it? Who finances it?
- 45. New forms of financing http://blog.intuit.com/trends/crowd-power-what-is-crowdfunding-infographic/
- 47. And even new forms of currency Mahaley 2012
- 48. Just when you thought you got it…. Here comes the Immersive Internet…. O’Driscoll 2009
- 49. What are Virtual Worlds ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quh2OiPHkm8 Platforms for unleashing creativity and revolutionizing value creation
- 50. My CV •Leading a virtual team of 30 individuals from across the globe •Creating and successfully executing strategies under pressure •Managing cross-cultural conflict without face-to-face communication Building skills in virtual environments
- 51. The number of virtual worlds and users continues to rapidly increase http://www.slideshare.net/nicmitham/kzero-universe-q1-2012 ≈1.9 bln accounts ≈100 worlds
- 52. ≈1.4 bln VW accounts under age 16 http://www.slideshare.net/nicmitham/kzero-universe-q1-2012 225 mln 170 mln 200 mln 265 mln 42 mln (and 8.2 mln bought)
- 53. “Clearly, if social activity migrates to synthetic worlds, economic activity will go there as well.” Castronova, 2006 $14.8 billion worldwide market for virtual goods in 2012E http://www.superdataresearch.com/monetization-is-a-four-letter-word/
- 54. US$ 635,000 for a virtual asteroid! http://blogs.forbes.com/oliverchiang/2010/11/13/meet-the-man-who- just-made-a-cool-half-million-from-the-sale-of-virtual-property/ •US$ 500,000 profit in 5 years by Jon “Neverdie” Jacobs •Entropia Universe with GDP >US$ 440 mln
- 55. Cloud party on Facebook - In beta Marketplace app and Cloud Coins https://www.facebook.com/CloudParty
- 56. Education, training… Learning virtual teaming skills through experience http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quh2OiPHkm8
- 57. Euroversity Network Overview − EU funded, 3 year multilateral and transversal network (LLP EACEA, KA3 (ICT)) − December 2011 – December 2014 − Project Leader: University of Hull (Darren Mundy, Luisa Panichi) − 19 partners from Austria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, UK Network Aims −Collect good practice examples in teaching and learning in virtual worlds from different subjects and national and local contexts − Facilitate transfer of core knowledge to new contexts − Provide framework for creation of pan-European virtual-world university Expected Outcomes − Increased number of experts in virtual world education − Policy for long-term sustainability of network and its outcomes − Model for knowledge transfer − Range of dissemination events More information: http://www.euroversity.eu/
- 58. Training and simulation for Providers of Healthcare Delivery In hospital counseling at Univ of New England Virtual hallucinations at UC Davis Pharmacy training at Umeå U Emergency training w/ SAIC
- 59. Accelerating innovation to meet global needs Teigland et al. 2010 Integrating users in development process http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kMNWBU1Yb8
- 62. The future of immersion… http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-19568451
- 63. Increasing pace of VW/3Di development Browser-based, hyperlinked 3D Radical interfaces Mobile Short-term Mid-term Long-term Adapted from Burden, 2012
- 64. Coming soon – by Palgrave Macmillan Release date April 19, 2013 http://www.amazon.com/The-Immersive- Internet-Reflections-Entangling/dp/1137283017
- 65. Only a matter of time? O’Driscoll 2009
- 66. From factories to office parks to….
- 67. From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to … Teigland, JVWR, 2010 ...the “mobility” of labor?
- 68. Here today, gone tomorrow?
- 69. Some things do not change Innovation Exchange Exchange Trust Trust Relationships Relationships Interaction
- 70. Are you ready?
- 71. What should you think about? How to let go? How to leverage the power of networks to create value inside and outside the boundaries of the firm? How to create a sustainable ecosystem?
- 72. Karinda Rhode aka Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.se www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland www.nordicworlds.net RobinTeigland Photo: Lindholm, Metro Photo: Nordenskiöld Photo: Lindqvist If you love knowledge, set it free…
- 73. Interested in learning more?
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Of original Forbes 100 in 191761 companies ceased to exist by 198718 of remaining 39 underperformed market by 20%Only 2 beat market index (GE & Eastman Kodak)Only 1 (1%) today!Of companies in original S&P 500 in 1957426 companies ceased to exist by 1997Only 12 (2.4%) outperformed S&P 500 index in 1997 Of top 100 companies in Korea in 1955Only 7 still on list in 20041997 crisis destroyed half of 30 largest conglomerates
- Strong ties – 4-6 on averageWeak ties – 150 on average Teamporary ties -
- http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2012/09/21/does-apples-success-prove-social-media-doesnt-really-matter/
- Photo: http://blog.tweetfind.com/pin-this-pinterest-releases-android-ipad-apps.html
- I always like to put things into perspective. I think that what is interesting and relevant here is that several economic historians had actually predicted the crisis that we are experiencing now. I don’t have time to go into all the details, but what we are seeing is a pattern repeating itself. As in the late 18th and 19th Centuries there was a technological innovation that led to a period first of transformation as the innovation began to be diffused, then a period of rationalization leading to an imbalance, and then to a financial crisis coming around 40 years after the innovation. However, in the past, these financial crises have then led to periods of great economic development – industrial revolutions, in which industry profitability has been restored through a redistribution of the value-added between capital and labor. But more importantly, these crises filtered out those organizations that could not adapt and change to stay competitive in the new industrial environment. And one of the most important things that is of interest for today’s discussion is that in one of the factors facilitating these new phases of economic growth following the crisis has been that a generation of people that had never experienced life without the innovation starts to enter the workforce – thus they are not restricted by old ways of thinking.experiencing now some economic historians claim to be due to the innovation of the microprocessor and microelectronics in the 1970s. Similar to what we experienced with the innovation of the steam engine in the late 18th C and the internal combustion engine and electric motor in the late 19th C, there was a subsequent crisis about due to various forces converging. We saw that as these basic innovations were diffused, people stopped investing in the existing industrial structure and instead focused on investing in a new generation of competitive machinery, which then led to an industrial revolution in both cases as the innovations became embedded in society. At the same time, the crisis served to release the negative pressure that had been built up as well as to restore industry profitability through the redistribution of value-added between capital and labor. Other notesNotes from article - Schön, L, Economic Crises and Restructuring in HistoryA crisis is connected with changes in the long term or structural conditions built up during a rather long period of time and effects behavior for a long time to comeTransformation – changes in industrial structure – resources are reallocated between industries and diffusion of basic innovations with industry that provides new bases for such reallocationRationalization – concentration of resources to most productive units within the branches and measures to increase efficiency in different lines of productionShifts between transformation and rationalization have occurred with considerable regularity in structural cycle of 40 years – 25 years on transformation, and 15 years on rationalization. Crises been part of this cycle as wellInternational crisis in 1840s – How go from crisis to expansion quickly – went quite rapidly in 1930s for Sweden – but Sweden in opposite corner in 1970s1850s – upswing of industrial and infrastructural investments was linked to breakthrough of mechanized factories in Sweden, modernization of steel processes and construction of railways1930s and more marked after WWII late 1940s - expansion of electrification and diffusion of automobiles, processing of electrosteel to small motors in handicraft and household – combination with motorcar – new styles in living and consumptionWaves of investments around development of an infrastructure from basic innovation of preceding cycle mid 1970s – microprocessor – knowledge and information in production of goods and servicesIt is not the basic innovation itself – but the diffusion of the innovation that counts!When invented, then expensive to implement, have a narrow range of application – Following generalization – A structural crisis (that has been preceded by an early development of basic innovations) has put an end to old directions of investments mainly in rationalization of existing industrial structure and given rise to investments in ne and devt of new tech that after one decade (the length of the classical Juglar cycle of machinery investments) has created a new generation of economically competitive machineryReallocation of labor occurs approx 15-30 years after the structural crisisDevelopment of markets – distribution of value added between capital and labour is one mirror of these changesDiffusion of innovations leads to expansion of markets and arrival of new competitors – Structural crises – release negative pressure and restored profitability in industry – get rid of those who not competitive
- Kay, J. (1993) Foundations of Corporate Success, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
- Currently totaling almost 100,000 ideas for new products. Ideas that are implemented are displayed on their website. The ideas go beyond products to services and corporate social responsibility actions.
- Collect ideas from employees Solicit feedback and suggestions from employees and customers Run innovation contests and competitions Validate concepts Use the power of "crowd-sourcing" to rank ideas and allow the best ideas to rise to the top
- In September 2011, GE and partners launched a $100 million open innovation challenge which sought to identify and accelerate ideas that advance breast cancer early detection and diagnostics. Explore the 500 submissions through this interactive data visualization and see the five seed winners that were awarded $100,000 each from GE to develop their ideas.
- (1) Enabling people to do things we already know how to do and (2)creating collaborative environments that allow people to develop new ideasand concepts to address unanticipated opportunities or challenges.Productive learning focuses mostly on the individual and on helpingthat individual to adopt a pattern of behavior that improves productivity.Generative learning, by contrast, is a collaborative endeavor. Shared meaningand insights are developed at the group level, and these insights driveenterprise transformation to ensure growth and sustainability. Today, thelearning function is focused primarily on productive learning. As a result,it appears that trainers are more likely to want to maintain the status quo,rather than challenge it.Learning is a far more complicated phenomenon than can ever be limitedto the classroom context. If we convey knowledge about tasks we alreadyknow how to do, we call it productive learning . If we share knowledge abouttasks that are new and different, we call it generative learning . Productivelearning serves largely to maintain the status quo within an enterprise byconveying what is already known, while generative learning involves notonly absorbing existing information but also creating new solutions to unanticipatedproblems. Information age learning requires that individuals andorganizations change the way they think about and act on what is knownand what needs to be known in order to innovate, change, and win.
- Threadless:What came first – the community or the company?RT: presents Threadless, http://www.nickburcher.com/2009/05/threadless-twitter-tees-another-example.html1,530,000 followers on TwitterThe whole business model for Threadless is based on an implicit understanding of how the social web works and gives a great demonstration of how communities can be built and harnessed across an organisation. Identifying online enthusiasts and passion groups and then using social platforms to bring them into the core of a business would appear to be a more powerful way of utilising social opportunities than just running ads on Facebook - but it requires a good deal more commitment. The media aspect of social offers some exciting opportunities for brands, but the potential of the social web can be significantly greater if the power of community is fully realised. In summary, there has to be purpose behind why you use social media. Largest challenge is about changing the mindset though – where create value? Use of social media considerably larger in smaller companies: Inc 100 vs Fortune 100. In these smaller companies, social media being used as a leadership tool as well.
- The Forge “The world’s first open-source community of car designers and fabricators.” Crowdsourced design and selection process; option to help build your own car.
- http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Marcin_Jakubowskihttp://www.localmotors.com/
- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrrF_MVMlZw
- http://www.dexigner.com/news/25559
- Liam Dippenaar couldn't catch a ball with both hands. Holding two objects at once was a feat and, though right-handed, the 5-year-old used his left. Born with Ambiotic Band Syndrome, Liam lacks the instrument critical for most tasks: fingers. Thanks to two strangers halfway around the world and the magic of 3D printing, Liam is now able to color and write to his heart's content. Ivan Owen and Richard Van As created Robohand, an open-sourced device built with customized prosthetic fingers. Owen, of Washington state, and Van As, of South Africa, collaborated via the Internet to create the prosthetic. The duo decided to make the design in the public domain to help others who can benefit from the technology.Their journey started in 2011, when Van As came across a video of Owen's costume piece, a robotic hand built for amusement. Van As lost most of the fingers on his right hand in a woodworking accident and cast a net out for those willing to help build a prosthetic. Owen was the only one who agreed. "I had started with the first prototype prior to meeting Ivan. But yes, there were so many obstacles and one of the main ones was contacting people and them just saying, 'No, it can’t be done,'" Van As tells Mashable. Long nights on Skype and a 10-hour time difference took some getting used to, but the two kept the project going through email and file sharing. Owen and Van As initially used a milling machine and spent hours engineering parts until MakerBot donated two Replicator2 Desktop 3D Printers. The donation exponentially cut production time for prototypes. What used to take up to three days to complete can now be done in only 20 minutes. Using OpenSCAD, a free software application, Owen and Van As can exchange files and make changes in minutes. Jenifer Howard, MakerBot's PR director, says the cross-continent collaboration fits perfectly with the company's mission. "We love to see our printers being used for amazing life-changing and life-validating projects like this," Howard says. The two men document their progress on a blog called "Coming up Short Handed." Liam's mother, Yolandi, saw the site and reached out to Van As for help. Liam, who has no fingers on his right hand, received his own Robohand at no cost after several trials and prototypes. "At first it was quite amazing to see the smile on his face when they made the first prototype and he put it on his hand," Yolandi says. "His expression was, 'Oh wow, it’s copying me.'
- http://orgnet.com/community.html
- http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~drand/
- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CijdlYOSPcWhile many definitions of VWs, these are the characteristics that I find relevant to the study of virtual entrepreneurship. Persistent, computer-simulated, immersive environments ranging from 2D "cartoon" imagery to more immersive 3D environmentworld exists regardless of whether users logged inUsers can manipulate and/or alter existing content or even create customized content Shared space or co-presencenumerous users, or ‘avatars’, simultaneously participate, interact, and share experiences through gestures, text chat, and voiceSocialization/community formation of in-world social groups such as teams, guilds, clubs, cliques, housemates, neighborhoods, etc the world allowed and encouraged
- https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/cGAPUCiKe6LI6l5fM4rFqAComputer-generated, persistent spaceThree-dimensional, immersiveenvironmentExperienced by many people at once/interactivity
- RT: traditional leadership further challenged as we move to a world of web 3.0 or the immersive internet…http://www.forbes.com/sites/limyunghui/2012/08/02/1-6-of-facebook-users-spent-over-1-billion-on-virtual-goods/http://www.informationweek.com/development/mobility/virtual-goods-to-generate-29-billion-in/232602637http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/29/virtual-good-market-boom/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ahqjBeknT0
- https://www.facebook.com/CloudParty
- www.euroversity.eu
- Lecuyer et al, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Virtual Reality, and Videogames Opensimulator3d printingBCI
- RT: the 3D internet characterized by ….(next slide)
- Abandoned factory in Michigan: http://www.nebraskaweatherphotos.org/july2009photos.htmlOffice building: http://homeasnika.com/office-buildings/
- http://journals.tdl.org/jvwr/article/view/866
- I can’t find the source for this, it would be great if someone could point this out to me.