Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall

1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A Spatial Assessment of Livestock
Population and Market Access
Helina Tilahun
Emily Schmidt
IFPRI ESSP-II
Ethiopian Economic
Association Conference
July 19-21, 2012
Addis Ababa
1

2. Overview
• What are the current trends in cattle, sheep and goat
population?
– Where are most of the livestock population located?
• Herd composition
• Travel time
• Pressure on grazing land?
• Links smallholder livestock population data and
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data.
2

3. Current Trends
• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow,
with the highland regions producing the largest share
of cattle, sheep and goats.
• Livestock population (cattle, sheep, and goat)
increased 22 percentage points between 2005 and
2008.
– Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent
of cattle in 2007/08.
3

4. Cattle Population
60
50
40
Millions
CSA
30 FAO
20
10
0
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Sheep and Goat Population
60
50
40
Millions
CSA
30 FAO
20
Source: Author’s
calculations;
10
CSA: Agricultural Sample
0
Survey (2005–2008) and
FAO (2005–2008)
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
4

7. Herd Composition: Ethiopia
• Sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle
population in all regions.
• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than
sheep and goat.
• By 2007/08, sheep and goat population dominated in
Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Harari.
7

8. Ethiopia: Sheep and Goat to Cattle Ratio
(2000 – 2008)
Region 2001/02* 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41
Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19
Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27
Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80
Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48
Benishangul Gumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26
SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69
Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48
Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13
Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46
Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30
Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005-2008)
8

9. Ratio of Sheep and Goat to Cattle
(1990 – 2009)
100
90
80
70
Million head of livestock
Sheep
60 Cattle Shoats
and
goats
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ethiopia 2000 Ethiopia 2005 Ethiopia 2009 Kenya 2000 Kenya 2005 Kenya 2009
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
9

10. Market Access and Livestock Population
• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved
considerably between 2000 and 2008.
– Better road infrastructure enables the highland areas to prevail as primary supplier of livestock for
the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET, 2007).
– Although the cost of trucking livestock is higher compared to trekking, traders and producers prefer
trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss (Gebremedhin et al. 2007).
• Data suggest that cattle population is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock
market.
• In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle population in Amhara region were located within
5 hours of market, in 2007/08 this figure reached 73 percent; Oromia from 64 to
81, SNNP from 60 to 78.
• Sheep and goat population within 5 hours travel time to a market increased.
– But not as dependent to accessibility as cattle population.
10

13. Percent of Cattle Population
within 5 hours of a Livestock Market
100
81 78
80 77 73
70
64 63
57
60 2001
2007
40 28
20
20 13 16 10 16
-
13

14. Percent of Sheep and Goat Population
within 5 hours of a Livestock Market
100
83
80 76
62 66 65 66
60
44 43
40 2001
20 15 2007
10 10 7 8
4
-

17. Livestock Population and Grazing Pressure
• Pressure on grazing land is increasing:
– greater human population density,
– larger herd sizes, and
– relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and
Nega 2000).
• To approximate measure of livestock density per square
kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data
produced by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic
Planning Project (WBISPP, 2000) with the estimated woreda
livestock population figures from 2001/02 through 2007/08.
17

20. East Africa: Tropical Livestock Unit
per sq. km of Land (thousands)
Sheep and Total TLU per
Country Cattle Goat TLU km2 km2
Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30
Djibouti 289 1,223 325 22 15
Eritrea 1,784 6,309 1,880 118 16
Kenya 10,183 20,743 9,202 546 17
Somalia 5,452 45,026 8,319 633 13
Uganda 11,518 8245 8,887 200 44
Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)
20

21. Conclusions
• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland
regions producing the largest share.
• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the sheep and goat
population is increasing compared to cattle population.
• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occurring in the highland
regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market.
• In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle population in the four major
highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market
• Sheep and goat population seems less dependent on accessibility
• Afar, Benishangul Gumuz
21

22. Conclusions (2)
• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing
• Further research on landcover change and livestock growth in
the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land /
environmental viability in coming years.