Weinberger, M. & E. Coast (2011) "Making sense of Tanzania's fertility: the role of contraceptive use" Presented at 2011 International Conference in Family Planning, Nov 29th - Dec 2nd, Dakar, Senegal

1. Making Sense of Tanzania’s Fertility: The Role of Contraceptive Use
Michelle Weinberger and Dr. Ernestina Coast
The issue Findings The future?
Contraceptive prevalence (CPR) Bongaarts’ model suggests: Future CPR increases will play
has more than doubled since the No fertility stall in urban areas, but fertility stall in rural areas large role in fertility decline:
early 1990s; yet the total fertility
rate (TFR) remains high. Observed v Predicted TFRs
Tanzania is
mostly rural
(+70%), so
national trend
driven by
rural stall.
The question Drivers of the rural fertility stall =
Knowledge contribution
What role have changes in
contraceptive use and method
contraceptive use + increase in % in-union •Rural fertility stall exists, but, can
be overcome
mix played in determining fertility Low CPR in rural areas + early Rural CPR growth offset  in %
trends and differentials in growth in CPR and method mix in-union. Had % in-union not •Focus efforts on rural areas to
Tanzania? effectiveness not sustained = increased, rural TFR would have close growing urban/rural gap
less impact on decreasing TFR. declined. •Government’s effort to revitalize
CPR Trends and Average Annual % Change FP will play key role in promoting
Methodology 1.9%
individual rights, slowed
Secondary analysis of: population growth, and improved
18.4%
1.7%
• Demographic and Health Surveys development prospects.
16.7%
(DHS) (1991/2, 1996, 2004/5)*
• Reproductive and Child Health From dissertation in fulfillment of
MSc Population and Development
Survey (RCHS) (1999)
*At time of analysis the 2010 DHS was not yet available Contact: mbweinber@gmail.com