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Poverty and Chronic Poverty:  An Overview Aasha Kapur Mehta Professor of Economics IIPA, New Delhi and CPRC
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Despite plans and poverty alleviation strategies we have:  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Incidence of Poverty in India – % of Population and No of People Below the Poverty Line 1973-74 to 1999-2000   260.2  ?? 26.1  ?? 1999-2000   320.3   36   1993-94   307.1   38.9   1987-88   322.9   44.5   1983   328.9   51.3   1977-78   321.3   54.9   1973-74   Number of poor  (millions)   % population  below the  poverty line   Year
Spatial concentration of poverty ,[object Object],[object Object]
Incidence and Concentration of Income Poverty in Selected States of India * including the newly formed states
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5 of these states (Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Uttar Pradesh) have had more than 30% of their people in poverty over several decades.  So high poverty incidence has existed in these states over a long duration.
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We view chronic poverty in terms of           long duration        severity and         multidimensional deprivation.
Panel Data Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chronic Poverty, Exit and Entry: 1970-71 and 1981-82
Chronic Poor, Transient Poor and Non Poor
Incidence of Poverty in Panel
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  ,  Important determinants of poverty are: Caste, Tribe and Household Demographic Composition   The probability of being chronically poor is greater for:             Casual Agricultural Labour             Landless households             Illiterate households             Larger households with more children Source: Bhide and Mehta CPRC-IIPA working papers 6 and 15
Factors that drive escape from poverty are ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Perceived reasons for decline into poverty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who are the chronically poor   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Low wages and drudgery maintain casual agricultural labourers in   chronic poverty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Multidimensional deprivation ,[object Object]
 
Deprivation at the District Level: Identifying the 50 most deprived districts in India   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
For example, persistent spatial variations in the infant mortality rate could reflect persistent deprivation to the means of accessing good health   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Similarly, illiteracy could be considered to be a persistent denial of access to information, knowledge and voice.   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Three groups of indices are computed.   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Chronic Severity poverty is viewed in three ways: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Severe Poverty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regions with very high incidence of very Poor and Poor in Rural Areas : 1993-94 50.02 26.79 Central U.P. 58.68 27.62 Northern Bihar 62.44 31.57 Southern Bihar 50.02 28.91 Inland Central Maharashtra 69.02 34.08 Southern Orissa 66.74 39.7 Southern U.P. 68.2 42.24 South Western M.P.   Poor Very Poor State/Regions
Hunger Hunger And Lack Of Availability Of Two Square Meals A Day          Starkest indicator of severe poverty         Within the over 200 million people identified as undernourished in India is a subset that is unable to access even two square meals a day.         Issues of state failure and community failure especially in the context of starvation related deaths.
Shock: Entry into Poverty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Globalisation: Suicide to escape chronic poverty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Health related shocks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rising Morbidity Based on 30 Day Recall NSS 2 Rounds 89 33 F 81 30 M 84 31 P Urban 89 63 F 84 64 M 86 64 P Rural 1995-96 1986-87
Drinking Water, Illness and Poverty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Older Persons ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Urban Slums ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Remote Rural Areas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
               A large proportion of the poor in remote areas are both chronically and severely poor and the incidence of this is negatively associated with size of land holding and household population. Remote rural areas are likely to experience chronic poverty on the basis of agro-ecological and socio-economic factors.              Unless efforts are made to develop the deprived areas, out migration from drought prone regions may only shift poverty from rural to urban or from dry land to agro-climatically better endowed regions.
Rural Infrastructure: Key to Anti Chronic Poverty Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 

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Asha Kapur Mehta

  • 1. Poverty and Chronic Poverty: An Overview Aasha Kapur Mehta Professor of Economics IIPA, New Delhi and CPRC
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  • 5. Incidence of Poverty in India – % of Population and No of People Below the Poverty Line 1973-74 to 1999-2000   260.2 ?? 26.1 ?? 1999-2000 320.3 36 1993-94 307.1 38.9 1987-88 322.9 44.5 1983 328.9 51.3 1977-78 321.3 54.9 1973-74 Number of poor (millions) % population below the poverty line Year
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  • 7. Incidence and Concentration of Income Poverty in Selected States of India * including the newly formed states
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  • 10. 5 of these states (Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Uttar Pradesh) have had more than 30% of their people in poverty over several decades.  So high poverty incidence has existed in these states over a long duration.
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  • 13. We view chronic poverty in terms of          long duration        severity and        multidimensional deprivation.
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  • 16. Chronic Poor, Transient Poor and Non Poor
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  • 19.   , Important determinants of poverty are: Caste, Tribe and Household Demographic Composition The probability of being chronically poor is greater for:            Casual Agricultural Labour            Landless households            Illiterate households            Larger households with more children Source: Bhide and Mehta CPRC-IIPA working papers 6 and 15
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  • 43. Regions with very high incidence of very Poor and Poor in Rural Areas : 1993-94 50.02 26.79 Central U.P. 58.68 27.62 Northern Bihar 62.44 31.57 Southern Bihar 50.02 28.91 Inland Central Maharashtra 69.02 34.08 Southern Orissa 66.74 39.7 Southern U.P. 68.2 42.24 South Western M.P. Poor Very Poor State/Regions
  • 44. Hunger Hunger And Lack Of Availability Of Two Square Meals A Day         Starkest indicator of severe poverty        Within the over 200 million people identified as undernourished in India is a subset that is unable to access even two square meals a day.       Issues of state failure and community failure especially in the context of starvation related deaths.
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  • 48. Rising Morbidity Based on 30 Day Recall NSS 2 Rounds 89 33 F 81 30 M 84 31 P Urban 89 63 F 84 64 M 86 64 P Rural 1995-96 1986-87
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  • 54.               A large proportion of the poor in remote areas are both chronically and severely poor and the incidence of this is negatively associated with size of land holding and household population. Remote rural areas are likely to experience chronic poverty on the basis of agro-ecological and socio-economic factors.            Unless efforts are made to develop the deprived areas, out migration from drought prone regions may only shift poverty from rural to urban or from dry land to agro-climatically better endowed regions.
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