Climate Variability and Civil War in Africa.

1. Climate Wars?Climate Variability and Civil War in Africa Halvard Buhaug Summer School on Environmental Conflicts and Justice Autonomous University of Barcelona 11 July 2011

2. Motivation Recent trends in climate and conflict Causal framework Empirical evidence A future research agenda Conclusion Plan of action

3. Drammen anno 2006

4. Drammen anno 2099?

6. At least one state government

8. Demise of superpower rivalry Spread of democracy, human rights Poverty alleviation Increasing economic interdependence Increasing international activism Nuclear deterrence Explaining the decline of war

9. Abrupt climate change may lead humanity into “constant battles for diminishing resources” (Schwartz & Randall, 2003) Climate change is an “all-encompassing threat” to human health, to global food supply, and to peace and security (Annan, 2006) Climate change “may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the earth’s resources”, resulting in “increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states” (Mjøs, 2007) “What makes wars start? Fights over water. Changing patterns of rainfall. Fights over food production, land use” (Beckett, 2007) “Climate change, if left unchecked, could result in violent conflict” (Obama, 2009)  All refer to security in a classic, narrow sense Will climate change revert the trend?

10. Note: Temperature statistics expressed as deviation from global mean, 1951–80. Data from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Columbia University (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp) Global warming

11. Note: Sea-level statistics with January 1946 as baseline. Data from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK (www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/) Sea level rise

12. Frequency Note: Disaster data from the EM-DAT database, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster (CRED), Catholic University of Louvain, Brussels (www.em-dat.net) Climatic natural disasters

13. Paradox or disaster waiting to happen?

14. Mapping contemporary civil wars

15. Most agree that climate is unlikely to affect armed conflict directly But climate anomalies/change may affect motives and/or opportunity for violent conflict in certain contexts “Threat multiplier” and “ingenuity gap”: Increased conflict risk in societies unable to cope with/adapt to changing environments Some typical country characteristics: Poor Poorly developed property rights Large marginalized populations Dependence on rain for income and food security History of violence Bad neighborhood How climate might affect armed conflict

16. “Tracing the consequences of consequences…” Armed conflict Reduction in livelihood Security in a wide sense Security in a narrow sense Causal flow chart

18. Trends in climate and conflictsince 1960

19. Sensitivity to time period

20. Sensitivity to severity threshold

21. Marginal impact of climate

22. Buhaug (PNAS 2010)

23. Comparative statistical work largely dismissive of a causal environment-conflict connection (e.g., Political Geography 2007; Journal of Peace Research 2012) Case-based environmental security literature in general more supportive but does not cover a random selection of cases Public debate dominated by policy actors, NGOs, and think-tanks; most reports motivated by idiographic evidence  policy debate has run ahead of scientific evidence base  social sciences less successful than the natural sciences in informing policy makers Empirical evidence: Summary

24. Explore effect of climate on other forms of violent conflict/interaction Intercommunal disputes One-sided violence Urban riots Terrorism Cooperation! Explore consequences of environmental change for conflict dynamics Get better data on (local) environmental vulnerability Obtain a better knowledge of drivers and patterns of migration Identify possible thresholds and non-linear effects Invest in research on long-term effects of environmental variability and change Research priorities

25. Climate change is a major challenge Climate change is a security issue Little evidence that climate anomalies increase civil war risk Little systematic research on other forms of violence Little systematic research on long-term implications of climate anomalies and change Societal tipping-point behavior not well understood  More research needed! Concluding remarks

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