1. 2013 FORECAST: A LOOK AHEAD
Puget Sound Economic Forecast
Dick Conway
Economist & Co-Publisher
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster

2. PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Dick Conway
The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster
Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
www.economicforecaster.com
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

3. U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Year =1.000
1.300
1.200
1.100
1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
2000-2011 1929-1940
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

4. Dot-Com/911 Recession
and The Great Recession
Puget United
Sound States
Dot-Com/911 Recession
Employment (% change) -4.8 -2.0
Peak unemployment rate (%) 7.0 6.2
The Great Recession
Employment (% change) -7.6 -6.2
Peak unemployment rate (%) 9.7 10.0
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

5. Reasons for Deeper
Puget Sound Recessions
• Dot-Com/911 Recession
High concentration of dot-coms
The Boeing Company
• The Great Recession
Rapid expansion prior to recession
Very strong housing market
Washington Mutual Bank
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

6. Economic Growth, 2000-2011
Annual Percent Change
Puget United
Sound States
Employment 0.2 -0.0
Unemployment rate (avg. %) 6.2 6.2
Personal income (cur. $) 3.9 3.8
Population 1.2 0.9
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

7. Puget Sound Economic Forecast
Percent Change
2011 2012 2013 2014
Employment 1.7 2.7 2.7 2.4
Personal income (cur. $) 5.4 4.6 5.1 5.7
Consumer price index 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4
Housing permits 11.9 50.2 22.1 10.0
Population 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

8. Puget Sound Economic Forecast (2)
Percent Change
2011 2012 2013 2014
Retail sales 5.5 6.2 5.3 5.5
Taxable retail sales 2.5 5.3 5.1 5.9
Home sales 8.9 15.4 19.3 -0.5
Average home price -9.6 2.4 8.3 4.4
Apartment vacancy (%) 4.9 4.7 5.1 5.2
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

9. Puget Sound Leading Index
and Employment
1987=1.000 Thousands
1.200 1950
1.160 1900
1.120 1850
1.080 1800
1.040 1750
1.000 1700
0.960 1650
0.920 1600
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Leading index (l) Employment (r)
Note: Shaded areas designate recessions.
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

10. Economic Forecast, 2011-2021
Annual Percent Change
1970-11 2011-21
Puget Sound
Employment 2.4 1.9
Personal income (cur. $) 7.8 5.2
Population 1.6 1.1
United States
Employment 1.5 1.4
Personal income (cur. $) 6.9 4.8
Population 1.0 0.8
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER

11. Reasons for Faster Growth
in Puget Sound Region
• Geographic location
• International trade
• World-class companies
• High technology
• Well-educated workforce
• Natural and cultural amenities
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ECONOMIC FORECASTER