A new major eruption of Popocatepetl would likely have a devastating economic impact on local residents who may be subsistence farmers and some of the poorest of the poor. Ash would be especially deadly to people and livestock (on which livelihoods depend), and a potential disaster for jet aircraft.

1. POPOCATEPETL ERUPTS JULY 4,
2013

2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST
NOTABLE DISASTERS
MEXICO
PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

3. USA – MEXICO FLIGHTS
CANCELLED TEMPORARILY
CONCERN ABOUT AIR SAFETY
FROM THE ASH

4. MEXICO

5. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED
DISASTERS IN MEXICO
FLOODS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
DERIVHIGH
BENEFIT/COST BY
BECOMING DISASTER
RESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE
AND COMMUNITIES

6. SOME OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE
VOLCANOES ARE IN MEXICO

7. Natural Phenomena That Cause
Disasters
Planet Earth’s heat
flow causes
movement of
lithospheric
plates, which
causes sub-
duction, which
causes VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS

8. VOLCANOES
PART OF THE PACIFIC ―RING OF FIRE,‖
MEXICO HAS ACTIVE VOLCANOES AS A
RESULT OF COMPLEX SUBDUCTION OF
THE COCOS PLATE BENEATH THE
NORTH AMERICAN PLATE

9. MEXICO: THE NORTH AMERICAN
AND COCOS PLATES

10. MEXICO’S VOLCANOES (NOTE:
POPOCATEPETL AND COLIMA)

11. IMAGES OF
POPOCATEPTL
MEXICO’S BEST KNOWN ACTIVE VOLCANO
AND THE SECOND HIGHEST VOLCANO IN
NORTH AMERICA ERUPTED AS RECENTLY
AS APRIL 17, 2013

12. POPOCATEPTL AND PIRAMID
DE COCHULA

13. ―POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY
• In the past centuries before
European came to Mexico,
large eruptions produced giant
mud flows that buried Aztec
settlements, and even entire
pyramids

14. ―POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY
• After almost 50 years of
dormancy, "Popo" came back
to life in 1994 and has been
producing powerful explosions
at irregular intervals since then.

15. VOLCANO HAZARDS
CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS
• VERTICAL PLUME (can affect
jet aircraft)
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS,
BURSTS, AND FLOWS

16. POPOCATEPTL

17. POPOCATEPTL

18. VOLCANO HAZARDS
CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS (can bury villages)
• EARTHQUAKES (related to
movement of lava)
• ―VOLCANIC WINTER‖ (causing
famine and mass extinctions)

19. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN
WHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION
INTERACT WITH MEXICO’S
COMMUNITIES

20. AN ERUPTION OF
POPOCATEPETL
(AKA ―POPO‖)
WOULD IMPACT NEARBY
MEXICO CITY AND PUEBLA
LOCATED 50 KM AWAY, 20 MILLION
PEOIPLE ARE AT RISK

21. MEXICO CITY, ―POPO‖ AND
AN AIRPLANE

22. POPOCATEPTL

23. LATERAL BLAST
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
CAUSES
OF RISK
CASE HISTORIES

24. LIKELY IMPACTS BASED ON
―POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY
• The pyroclastic mud flows can
firm up like concrete once they
stop, ruining farmland and,
because they are difficult to
remove, disrupting life in
communities.

25. LIKELY IMPACTS
• Ash can be especially harmful and even
deadly to people who are unable to
evacuate.
• Ash can also be deadly to livestock, on
which the resident’s livelihood may
depend.

26. LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS
• Air traffic may disrupt the economy for
long periods if the ash clouds intersect
the routes of jet aircraft and are a
threat to safety.

27. LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS
• A new major eruption of Popocatepetl
would likely have a devastating
economic impact on local residents
who may be subsistence farmers and
some of the poorest of the poor.
• Ash would be especially deadly to
people and livestock (on which
livelihoods depend), and a potential
disaster for jet aircraft.

28. IMAGES OF
COLIMA
Colima is not one, but two different
volcanoes, the oldest one called Nevado
de Colima, that is located about 450 km
(270 mi) west of Mexico City

29. COLIMA

30. COLIMA
• The Volcán de Colima, also known as
Volcán de Fuego, is part of the Colima
volcanic complex consisting of Volcán
de Colima and Nevado de Colima.
• The youngest of the two, it is currently
one of the most active volcanoes in
Mexico and North America, erupting
more than 40 times since 1576

31. THE ALTERNATIVE TO A
VOLCANIC--ERUPTION
DISASTER IS
VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE

32. A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the
capability of a community to respond
without external help when three
continuums: 1) people, 2) community
(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and
social constructs), and 3) complex
events (e.g., VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,…)
intersect at a point in space and time.

33. Disasters are caused by
single- or multiple-event
natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality,
morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses,
or environmental impacts.

34. THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the
functions of the community’s
buildings and infrastructure can be
LOST for long periods.

35. THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-
PREPARED for what will likely
happen, not to mention the
low-probability of occurrence—
high-probability of adverse
consequences event.

36. THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO or
WARNING SYSTEM in place as a
strategic framework for early threat
identification and coordinated
local, national, regional, and
international countermeasures.

37. THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE
CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a
timely and effective manner to
the full spectrum of expected
and unexpected emergency
situations.

38. THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT
during recovery and
reconstruction because it HAS
NOT LEARNED from either the
current experience or the
cumulative prior experiences.

39. MEXICO’S
COMMUNITIES
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•WINDSTORM
HAZARDS
•PEOPLE & BLDGS.
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
VOLCANO RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS

40. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• School children
and adults need
masks to
counter adverse
health effects of
breathing
volcanic ash.

41. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• Volcanic
ash ruins
crops and
vegetation
and disrupts
aviation.

42. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• Although a
complex
activity, timely
evacuation is
essential for
volcano dis-
aster resilience

43. AIR AND LAND MONITORING
TECHNOLOGIES ARE VITAL
.

44. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
―RESTORATION
TO NORMAL‖ AND
RECOVERY
USUALLY TAKE
LONGER THAN
THOUGHT.