The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons: By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael. Powerpoint courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

1. THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN
HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY
BECAME ACTIVE WITH
4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES
SECOND HALF
September 5 –November 30, 2012

2. 2012’S STORM TRACKS
(as of September 8)

3. 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN STORM
TRACKS AS OF OCT. 16

4. NAMED STORMS IN 2012
(Continued)
• ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21
• JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25
• KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27
• LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3
• MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4
• NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12

5. NAMED STORMS IN 2012
• OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4
• PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11
• RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12
• SANDY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 22
• TONY
• VALERIE
• WILLIAM

6. The 2012 season is lagging behind
past seasons:
By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major
hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and
Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we
had one major hurricane (Katia).
This year, we have one-- Michael.

7. ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21
TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26

8. ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE
GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12

9. LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT
3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5

10. SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE
LESLIE IS HEADED
SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARDS BERMUDA AND
CANADA

11. SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA

12. TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL:
FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4

13. Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday
and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s
pressure suddenly fell 40 mb
and the maximum sustained
winds increased by 63 mph,
truly a remarkable case of
rapid intensification

14. MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3
HURRICANE: SEPT. 6

15. Michael, the 7th hurricane of
2012 and located 980 miles
west-southwest of the Azores
and heading northeast at 7
mph, will likely weaken as it
encounters colder waters..

16. MICHAEL’S PATH: SEPT. 6

17. MICHAEL’S ULTIMATE PATH

18. On Sept. 7th, the seasonal
ACE (Accumulated Cyclone
Energy) (using the 1981-
2010 data base), stood at 61,
or 143% of an average
season.

19. BUT---
ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012
A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED
AS
EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN

20. SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS
AGAIN

21. Depending on how quickly El
Niño develops, there could be
a quick shutdown of tropical
systems during the latter part
of the Atlantic season and an
extended season on the Pacific
side.

22. TROPICAL STORM NADINE:
SEPT. 12

23. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
BECAME A CAT 1
HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14 th
Because of its location in the Azores,
Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season,
did not cause any major concerns in
spite of its unusually long life.

24. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR
FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4th
Oscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was not
expected to last very long or to cause
any major problems.

25. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR
DIED ON OCTOBER 5

26. TROPICAL STORM PATTY
FORMED NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11th
Patty is the 16th storm of 2012.

27. TROPICAL STORM PATTY

28. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
FORMED ON OCT. 12TH
Rafael was the 18th storm and 9th
hurricane of the season

29. HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT
1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16

30. TROPICAL STORM SANDY
FORMED ON OCT. 22ND
Sandy, whose future is still uncertain,
was the 19th storm of the season

31. TROPICAL STORM SANDY:
OCTOBER 22

32. CAT I HURRICANE SANDY:
OCTOBER 24

33. OCTOBER 24:
CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE
LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE
CAPITOL, IN BERMUDA
Schools and businesses were closed
and people in low-lying areas under a
flood watch were evacuated

34. OCTOBER 24
Sandy, now the season’s ninth
hurricane, is a huge storm with wind
and rain bands reaching out 330 km or
more from the storm center, producing
15-50 cm of rain in Bermuda, Haiti,
Dominican Republic, and Cuba

35. LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON
“FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27
• Miami, Florida, which is already water-
logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this
summer, is expected to experience
more rain, gusty winds, huge waves,
and dangerous rip tides as a likely
weakened Sandy continues to move
northward.

36. FORECAST FOR SANDY:
OCTOBER 24

37. POSSIBILITIES AFTER
“FLORIDA SATURDAY”
• Sandy could veer northeastward and
eventually die in the Atlantic.
• Or, Sandy could become a powerful
Nor’easter as it moves northward along
the Eastern US seaboard

38. CUMMULATIVE IMPACTS
66 DEATHS
ECONOMIC LOSSES: $2.577 BILLION