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Airline Market
                                                         Outlook


                                           The Future Role of
                                               30 to 120-seat
                                                  Commercial
                                                           Aircraft

                                                                New York
    Frederico Fleury Curado                    Wednesday, April 12th, 2006
Executive Vice-President, Airline Market
Forward Looking Statement



This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or
circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements
largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends
affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking
statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other
things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our
market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”
“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We
undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements
because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and
uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation
might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our
forward-looking statements.




     THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Contents


  Current Scenario

  Key Global Market Trends

  Important Issues in the 30-120 Seat Segment:

       RJ 50: an intrinsic part of the air transportation system

       E-Jets: matching aircraft capacity to market demand

  Market Forecast

   THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Positive World Economic Scenario
2006-2025 economic scenario is sustaining Air Travel Demand growth

  Projected Traffic and Economic Growth by Region (Average Annual Growth)


                                      World

      USA, Canada & Caribbean

                         Latin America

                                    Europe
                                                                                                                                                      RPK
                          Russia & CIS                                                                                                                GDP

                                      Africa

                             Middle East

                             Asia Pacific

                                      China

                                                0%              1%             2%             3%             4%             5%              6%   7%     8%

Source: Global Insight and Embraer
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Increased Air Travel Demand
Traffic is recovering at strong growth rates but in another environment


                        7000                                                                                                                                                80%
                                            RPK                    ASK                   Load Factor
                                                                                                                                                                            78%
                        6000
                                                                                                                                                                            76%
  Billion (RPK & ASK)




                        5000




                                                                                                                                                                                  % (Load Factor)
                                                                                                                                                                            74%
                        4000                                                                                                                                                72%

                        3000                                                                                                                                                70%
                                                                                                                                                                            68%
                        2000
                                                                                                                                                                            66%
                        1000
                                                                                                                                                                            64%
                           0                                                                                                                                                62%
                                    1995

                                               1996

                                                          1996

                                                                      1998

                                                                                 1999

                                                                                            2000

                                                                                                        2001

                                                                                                                   2002

                                                                                                                              2003

                                                                                                                                         2004

                                                                                                                                                     2005

                                                                                                                                                            2006F

                                                                                                                                                                    2007F
                                                            6.3% yoy                                                                   7.7% yoy              6.4% yoy




Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines
                          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Revenue Environment
World yields are improving, but trend in real terms remains down
                        105

                        100

                         95
     Index (1994=100)




                         90

                         85

                         80

                         75

                                               World Nominal Yield
                         70
                                               World Real Yield (adj. for US inflation)
                         65
                                 1994       1995       1996       1997       1998       1999       2000       2001       2002       2003       2004 2005F 2006F 2007F



                        World real yields in 2005 are 28% lower than 1994 values in an
                           environment where LCCs pricing power is the main driver.
Source: ICAO (Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight (USA CPI Inflation) and IATA Economics
                        THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
End of Cheap Jet Fuel
Lack of spare oil production capacity remains                                                                                                                       high price trend

                             85                                                                                                                        95
                                          Capacity                                                                                                                   Crude Oil
                                                                                                                                                       90
                             80           Demand
Millions of Barrel per Day




                                                                                                                                                       85            Jet Fuel




                                                                                                                                  Price (US$/Barrel)
                             75                                                                                                                        80
                             70                                                                                                                        75
                                                                                                                                                       70
                             65
                                                                                                                                                       65
                             60                                                                                                                        60
                                                                                                                                                       55                                    Current price
                             55                                                                                                                                                              40% higher than
                                                                                                                                                       50                                    Jan/05
                             50                                                                                                                        45
                                  1970


                                              1975


                                                          1980


                                                                      1985


                                                                                  1990


                                                                                               1995


                                                                                                           2000


                                                                                                                       2005




                                                                                                                                                                    Mar05

                                                                                                                                                                            May05

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul05
                                                                                                                                                            Jan05




                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep05

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov05

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan06
                                            For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at US$60
                                                                    level and jet fuel around US¢170/gallon
Source: EIA – Energy Industry Administration (Mar 31st, 2006)
                                     THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
World Financial Net Results
Net results improving. Strong net profit expected for 2007.


         North America

         -10.8 -5.4 1.1                                                                                                                           World

                                                                                                                                           -6.0 -2.2 7.2

                                                               Europe

                                                           1.8     1.4     2.1



                                                          2005 2006F 2007F

                                                                                                    Asia Pacific

                                                              MEast & Africa                       2.9     2.0      3.1

          2005 2006F 2007F                                     -0.1 -0.4 0.5

                        Latin America                          2005 2006F 2007F                    2005 2006F 2007F                        2005   2006F 2007F
                         0.2     0.2     0.4

                         2005 2006F 2007F



Source: IATA Economics                                                                                                                        Values in US$ Billion

          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Higher Competitive Environment
LCC will keep capturing market share from Network carriers


        USA Domestic RPM                                                                                  Intra Europe RPK

                   5%
                                             11%                       12%
                                                                                                               17%                          16%    16%
                  19%

                                             29%                                                               11%
                                                                       31%                                                                  19%
                                                                                                                                                   34%




                  76%                                                                                          72%
                                             60%                                                                                            65%
                                                                       57%
                                                                                                                                                   50%




                  2000                      2005                      2010E                                    2000                         2005   2010E
                                                       Netw ork                         LCC                        Regional


Source: Back Aviation and Embraer
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Higher Competitive Environment
Top 15 capacity market share declined 13%

                             100%

                             90%

                             80%
 World Total ASK Share (%)




                                                            48%                                              51%                                               55%
                             70%

                             60%

                             50%                                                                                                                                      13%
                             40%

                             30%                                                                                                                                            Others
                                                            52%                                              49%                                                            Airlines
                                                                                                                                                               45%
                             20%

                             10%                                                                                                                                            Top 15
                                                                                                                                                                            Airlines
                               0%
                                                           1995                                             2000                                               2005

                                                                                             Top 15 Airlines: American, Delta, United, Continental, British Airways, Northwest, Lufthansa,
Source: Back Aviation                                                                       Air France, Southwest, Japan Airlines, Singapore, US Airways, Qantas, Air Canada, All Nippon
                              THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Strong Effort to Reduce Costs
Labor cost reduction has not been enough

                                                                           2000            2001             2002            2003            2004    2005
  Labor                                             (¢/ASM)                3.55             3.86            3.99             3.86           3.48    3.10
                                                   % y-o-y                                   9%              3%              -3%            -10%    -11%
  Fuel                                              (¢/ASM)                1.46             1.40            1.23             1.46           1.94    2.57
                                                   % y-o-y                                  -4%             -12%             18%            33%     32%
  Ownership                                         (¢/ASM)                1.52             1.62            1.64             1.66           1.60    1.51
  Professional Services                             (¢/ASM)                0.90             0.92            0.88             0.90           0.93    0.98
  Landing Fees                                      (¢/ASM)                0.19             0.21            0.23             0.25           0.25    0.25
  Maintenance Material                              (¢/ASM)                0.29             0.25            0.22             0.19           0.19    0.17
  Other                                             (¢/ASM)                2.40             2.65            2.33             2.51           3.07    3.25
  Total                                             (¢/ASM)               10.31            10.90           10.52            10.83           11.46   11.84
                                                   % y-o-y                                   6%              -3%              3%             6%      3%




             USA: fuel expenses are burning airline´s cost savings

Source: ATA – Air Transport Association (USA Majors and National Passenger Carriers - 3Q05)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
LCC & Network Cost Convergence
The cost gap is closing



                                                                      USA                                                                                                     Europe
                                    8                                                                                                                             13




                                                                                                                               Short-haul unit cost (Euro¢/ASK)
   Short-haul unit cost (US¢/ASK)




                                                                                                  Network                                                                               Network
                                    7                                                                                                                             11

                                    6                                                                                                                              9
                                                                                                   Jetblue                                                                              easyJet
                                    5                                                                                                                              7

                                    4                                                                                                                              5                    Ryanair
                                                                                               Southwest

                                    3                                                                                                                              3
                                             2001              2002             2003              2004                                                                 2002     2003   2004




Source: IATA Economics
                                        THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
What the Passengers Want
Pricing and convenient flight schedules are main passengers priorities

     Top 10 factors of airline choice for SHORT-HAUL flights by region
                                                                                                                                                   Pricing:
      50%                                                                                               Americas
                                                                                                                                             • 1st - Americas
                                                                                                        Europe
                                                                                                                                             • 1st - Europe
                                                                                                        Asia Pacific
      40%                                                                                                                                    • 3rd- Asia Pacific
                                                                                                        Afica & Middle East
                                                                                                                                             • 6th- Africa&ME
      30%


      20%


      10%                                                                                                                                    Convenient Flight
                                                                                                                                                  Schedules:
       0%                                                                                                                                    • 2nd - Americas
                                                                                                                                             • 2nd - Europe
                                             t




                                           ts
                                          pe
                                            n
                                            e


                                          rd




                                            k
                                            g




                                            e
                                           s




                                         gh
                                          m




                                         or
                                        tio




                                       tim
                                         in


                                         le




                                       gh
                                                                                                                                             • 4th - Asia Pacific
                                      co




                                       ty
                                     m




                                     fli
                                     ic




                                    tw
                                   du




                                    ta




                                   fl i
                                  re




                                  ft
                                 ra
                                Pr




                                  n
                                 g




                               ne
                               pu
                               he




                               ra


                               io




                               of
                             tin
                             og




                                                                                                                                             • 3rd - Africa&ME
                              ty




                           irc



                            ct
                            re
                           sc




                            e
                           fe




                         i ty
                          ec
                          pr




                         in
                        ne
                        A
                        e
                       sa
                       ht




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                     nn


                      in
                     er




                    on
                  lig




                   tu
                    A
                  irl
                    e
                 fl y




                 co
                in




                 C




               nc
               tf




               A
             irl
            nt




              y
           en




           Po
           m
           A
          ue
         ni




        or
       eq
      ve




     tf
    Fr
   on




   es
C




 B




Source: IATA - 2005 Corporate Air Travel Survey
            THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Opportunities for Rightsizing
Additional opportunities are still in the marketplace

                                       6,018
                          routes with less than two
                            average daily frequency

                                                            41%
                                                                                                         USA & Europe
                                                                                                         Average Daily Frequency by Route
                                                                                                         Routes operated exclusively by Jet Aircraft
                             34%
                                                                                                         from 91 – 175 seats up to 2000 nm
         % of Routes




                                                                                            17%


                                                                                                                             6%
                                                                                                                                              2%


                           0 - 0,5                        0,5 - <2                         2 - <5                         5 - <10             >=10
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05)                                      Average Daily Frequency
             THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Opportunities for Rightsizing
2005 USA Domestic Flights (Jet aircraft ≥ 100-seat)

                  25                                    49% of flights
                                               depart with loads appropriate
                                                  for 70-110 seat aircraft 20
                  20
                                                                                                                  17
                                                                                      16
   % of Flights




                  15

                                                                                                                                10
                  10
                                                                                                                                                                     8
                                                                         7
                                                                                                                                               6        6
                                                           5
                  5
                                                                                                                                                               3
                               1             1
                  0
                             <50            50            60            70            80        90     100     110                           120        130   140   ≥150
                                                                                             Pax per Departure

                                                    Airlines could improve efficiency by better
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
                                                      matching demand with aircraft capacity
                       THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Capacity Adjustment Already Under Way
USA domestic average seats per aircraft is decreasing

                        130

                        128
   Seats per Aircraft




                        126

                        124

                        122

                        120

                        118
                                       2000                   2001                   2002                   2003                   2004                  2005   2006


The replacement of old / inefficient NB fleet and the deployment of new
generation RJs are providing more flexibility and efficiency for airlines.
Source: 2006 FAA Report
                        THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Old Jets Replacement Opportunities
Ageing World Fleet in Service (61-120 seats)

                             700

                                       610                                                                735                              • 31% of total world fleet is
                             600                                                                aircraft older than
                                                                   522                                20 years                                 more than 20 years old and
                             500
Number of Aircraft (Units)




                                                                                                                                               shall start to be replaced in
                             400
                                                                                                                                               the coming years.
                                                                                                316
                                                     305
                             300

                                                                                  214                          214           205           • Old technology equipment:
                             200

                                                                                                                                               inefficient and expensive
                             100
                                                                                                                                               aircraft to operate.
                               0
                                        0-5          6-10         11-15          16-20         21-25          26-30          >30
                                                                      Aircraft Age (Years)
Source: Back Aviation (Dec/05)
                                   THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Where is the RJ 50
  market going?
Regional Airlines – Europe


         TP 1995                                                                                              TP 2005
         3026 routes                                                                                          2810 routes
         723 aircraft                                                                                         666 aircraft
         Av. stage length:                                                                                    Av. stage length:
         200 nm (370 km)                                                                                      231nm (428 km)




                                             Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 700%
                                                    and TP shrank by 8%


         RJ 1995                                                                                              RJ 2005
         273 routes                                                                                           1722 routes
         37 aircraft                                                                                          294 aircraft
         Av. stage length:                                                                                    Av. stage length:
         414 nm (767 km)                                                                                      387 nm (717 km)




Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200 and 328JET)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Regional Airlines – USA



                                                             TP 1995
                                                             1908 routes
                                                                                                                                           TP 2005
                                                             1599 aircraft                                                                 902 routes
                                                             Av. stage length:                                                             740 aircraft
                                                             179 nm (332 Km)                                                               Av. stage length:
                                                                                                                                           159 nm (295Km)



                                          Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 3600%
                                                and TP fleet shrank 54%




                                                           RJ 1995                                                                         RJ 2005
                                                           180 routes
                                                                                                                                           2888 routes
                                                           36 aircraft
                                                                                                                                           1358 aircraft
                                                           Av. stage length:
                                                                                                                                           Av. stage length:
                                                           391 nm (724 Km)
                                                                                                                                           395 nm (732 Km)




Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET)
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 in the USA – Main Trends

    Main Trends that we already know:

            Mature Market – no additional major orders

            USA scope relaxation shifted demand to bigger RJs

            RJ50s will keep their importance as hub feeders and long
            thin point-to-point routes


    But, can the RJ50 market get sustained?
                                                                                                                                           ...

Source: Embraer
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
USA Hub & Spoke System
Hubs are largely dependent on RJs




      1. RJs are responsible for 22% of all USA domestic passengers
      2. RJs: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger
Source: Back Aviation (T100 and OD1A: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET).                             2006 FAA Report (DOT Form 41 & Form 298C)
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Evolution - USA
                                                                                                                                                                • Scope Clauses
New Markets Opened per Year                                                                                                                                       relaxation
                                                                                                                       Sep 11, 2001                             • Low density market
                                                                                                                                                                  opportunities
                         180                                                                                                                                    • RJs as single service
                                                                          • Sep 11 impact                                                                         providers
                         160                                                (right-sizing)
                                                                          • Replacing old and
                         140                                                inneficicent jets
  New Markets per Year




                         120

                         100         • Scope Clauses
                                     • TP avoidance factor
                          80         • RJ phenomena

                          60

                          40

                          20

                           0
                                   1996            1997           1998            1999           2000            2001            2002           2003          2004       2005

                                          TP Replacement                                Jet Complement/Replacement                                          New Routes
Source: Back Aviation (OAG ; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET)
                           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
New Market Opportunities - USA




                      New market opportunities




Selection Criteria:
1. Market Demand: 25-75 PDEWs without
                                                                                                           136 potential markets
   direct flights
2. Distance Profile: 250 -- 1500 mi
                                                                                                           without any direct service
3. Revenue Environment: Yield >= RJ Yield

Source: Back Aviation (OAG 2005)                                                   Note: RJ Yield Curve = 2005 Yields for ExpressJet and Pinnacle – 1 coupon)
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
New Market Opportunities – EU
Point-to-Point – new routes to secondary cities/airports is increasing




                                                                                        1996-2000




                                                                                        2001-2005




                                                                                                          0             40             80      120   160   200
                                                                                                                                         Markets

                                                                                                               Primary-Primary
                                                                                                               Primary-Secondary
                                                                                                               Secondary-Secondary
Source: Back Aviation (OAG) and Embraer
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Market Opportunities – China
Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies.




                59% of total
                routes have less
                   than 1 daily
                 frequency and
                    less than
                135 pax/day




Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2004. Only domestic routes less than1,500 nm
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Market Opportunities – Russia
Old Fleet Replacement

       30-60
  Seat Segment



 244 aircraft
    33 years old
      (average)
                                   Yak-40                                                                        An-24
                                                                         Jet – 30 seats                                                    Turboprop - 50 seats
                                                                           122 aircraft                                                            122 aircraft
                                                                   Average Age: 31 yrs                                                     Average Age: 34 yrs


       61-90                                                                                            91-120
  Seat Segment                                                                                    Seat Segment



                                  Tu-134              Jet - 76 seats                                                                 Yak-42       Jet - 120 seats
                                                         123 aircraft                                                                                   54 aircraft
                                                Average Age: 28 yrs                                                                          Average Age: 17 yrs
Source: BACK (Fleet PC Feb06)
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Parked Aircraft


                                                                                                                   Parked
                                   Region                                  Aircraft Type
                                                                                                               (as of Mar/06)
                 Africa                                               ERJ 145                                            1
                                                                      CRJ00/200/440                                     15
                 Europe
                                                                      ERJ145                                             2
                 Latin America                                        ERJ145                                             5
                 USA, Canada & Caribbean                              CRJ100/200/440                                    90




                                                                                                                   Parked                   % of Fleet
                                   Region                                  Aircraft Type                                                    Parked
                                                                                                               (as of Mar/06)
                                                                      CRJ100/200/440                                   105                    10%
                                  WORLD                               ERJ145                                             8                     1%
                                                                      Total                                            113                     6%




Source: Back Aviation (Fleet PC Mar31,2006)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Residual Value (RV) Evolution
RV by Quarter at 12 Years Age

                10.00
                 9.00
                 8.00
                 7.00
  US$ Million




                 6.00
                 5.00
                 4.00
                 3.00
                 2.00                                                                                                                             ERJ 145
                 1.00                                                                                                                             CRJ-200
                 0.00
                       4

                       1

                       2

                       3

                       4

                       1

                       2

                       3

                       4

                       1

                       2

                       3

                       4

                       1

                       2
                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q

                     Q
                   02

                   03

                   03

                   03

                   03

                   04

                   04

                   04

                   04

                   05

                   05

                   05

                   05

                   06

                   06
                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20
                                          ERJ 145s are sustaining Residual Values
Source: MBA Avitas Airclaims, et al
                 THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50s Future


 1. Will remain the backbone of USA hub feeding system


 2. Potential for increasing frequencies in the USA and EU


 3. New market opportunities in the USA and EU


 4. Potential in China, Russia and other markets


 5. Secondary market developing


 6. ERJ 145 retaining Residual Values



    THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family Orderbook




                                                          Firm                                                                              Firm
   (as of December 31st, 2005)                                                  Options                   Total               Deliveries   Backlog
                                                         Orders

               ERJ 135                                      123                       2                     125                     108      15


               ERJ 140                                       94                      20                     114                     74       20


               ERJ 145                                      677                     157                     834                     667      10


                 Total                                     894                     179                  1,073                       849      45


   THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family




             The Evolution of Regionals
  THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
The 70 to 110-seat
    jet market
    evolution
USA Domestic: Pax & Seats per Departure
Jet aircraft (70-150 Seats)
                35%
                                                     Pax/Dep 2000                                      Seats/Dep 2000
                                                     Pax/Dep 2005                                      Seats/Dep 2005
                30%
                                                                                                                                                                     2000

                25%


                                                                                                                                                       Seats/dep
                20%                              2000
                                                                                         Pax/dep                                                                           2005
 % of Flights




                15%

                                2005
                10%


                5%


                0%
                            <50           50            60            70            80           90            100          110           120           130   140   ≥150



                                           USA Industry is becoming more efficient through
                                             better matching demand with aircraft capacity
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
                      THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
USA Dom.: Further Capacity Adjustment Opportunities

Load Factor distribution for USA domestic jet flights
                                                            20-40%                         41-60%                         61-80%                        81-95%

                       4000000




                       3000000
   Number of Flights




                       2000000




                       1000000




                                 0
                                             2000                    2005                    2000                   2005                    2000            2005
                                                      RJ 50                                            70-110                          Narrow-body (120-150)


                                                           There are further opportunities in the
                                                               capacity adjustment process
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
                       THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
USA Dom.: Detail of Capacity Adjustment Opportunities
4000000




3000000




2000000




1000000                                                                                Natural Growth                                      Right-sizing
      0
             2000   2005                              2000    2005   2000     2005


                                                             400000
                           Number of Annual Flights




                                                             300000




                                                             200000




                                                             100000
                                                                                              E-Jets: The 70 to 110-seat
                                                                                                      market evolution
                                                                     0
                                                                                     RJ 50                                                              NB 120-150
          Source: Back Aviatio (T100 2005)                                  LFactor: 81-95%                                                           LFactor: 20-60%
                     THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family @ USA and Canada
                                                                                                                                             % of Routes (4Q05)


                                                                                                                                            New Route
                                                                                                                                            Right-sizing
                                                                                                                                            Natural Growth

                                                                                                                                            100%
                                                                                                                                                        14%



                                                                                                                                            75%
                                                                                                                                                        41%


                                                                                                                                            50%



                                                                                                                                            25%         45%




                                                                                                                                             0%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family @ USA and Canada




                                                                                                                                            28 E170
    Dec/05:
     Dec/05:
              89 EMBRAER 170/190 in service
               89 EMBRAER 170/190 in service                                                                                                78 routes
                    228 routes                                                                                                              Avg. Stage Length:
                     228 routes                                                                                                             532 nm (985 km)
       Avg. Stage Length: 556 nm (1030 km)
        Avg. Stage Length: 556 nm (1030 km)




    14 E175                          3 E190                                28 E170                               7 E190                     9 E170
    28 routes                        18 routes                             64 routes                             20 routes                  20 routes
    Avg. Stage Length:               Avg. Stage Length:                    Avg. Stage Length:                    Avg. Stage Length:         Avg. Stage Length:
    468 nm (867 km)                  624 nm (1156 km)                      553 nm (1024 km)                      344 nm (637 km)            1120 nm (2074 km)

Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family @ Europe
                                                                                                                                              % of Routes (4Q05)


                                                                                                                                            New Route
                                                                                                                                            Rightsizing
                                                                                                                                            Natural Growth

                                                                                                                                            100%         4%




                                                                                                                                            75%
                                                                                                                                                         57%


                                                                                                                                            50%



                                                                                                                                            25%
                                                                                                                                                         39%



                                                                                                                                             0%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family @ Europe




                                                                                                  10 E170                                   6 E170
                                                                                                  74 routes                                 22 routes
                                                                                                  Avg. Stage Length: 539 nm                 Avg. Stage Length: 361 nm




                                                                                                   4 E170                                   1 E170
                                                                                                   36 routes                                6 routes
                                                                                                   Avg. Stage Length: 396 nm                Avg. Stage Length: 456 nm




                                                                                                                 Dec/05:
                                                                                                                  Dec/05:    21 EMBRAER 170 in service
                                                                                                                              21 EMBRAER 170 in service
                                                                                                                             187 routes
                                                                                                                              187 routes
                                                                                                                 Avg. Stage Length: 464 nm (859 Km)
                                                                                                                  Avg. Stage Length: 464 nm (859 Km)
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family @ Asia & Middle East
                                                                                                                                             % of Routes (Feb06)


                                                                                                                                            New Route
                                                                                                                                            Rightsizing
                                                                                                                                            Natural Growth

                                                                                                                                            100%

                                            77
                                Dec/05: EMBRAER 170/190 in service
                                 Dec/05: EMBRAER 170/190 in service                                                                                     29%
                                              66 routes
                                               66 routes                                                                                    75%
                                 Avg. Stage Length: 319 nm (591 km)
                                  Avg. Stage Length: 319 nm (591 km)



                                                                                                                                            50%
                                                                                                                                                        71%

                                                                                                                                            25%
1 E170                                    1 E170                                              5 E170
2 routes                                  3 routes                                            61 routes
Avg. Stage Length: 598 nm                 Avg. Stage Length: 417 nm                           Avg. Stage Length: 305 nm                      0%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG Feb/06)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Beyond the Current Models...
                                             There is a need for a new TOOL




                                   Regional Airlines
 RASK / M




                                                                                                                   Network Airlines




                                                                                                     Low Cost
                                                                                                      Carriers
                                                      E-Jets
                                                                                                                 Capacity
            THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family – Efficiency to all Business Models
           Regional                                                          Network                                                        Low Cost




Source: 4Q05 Embraer Orderbook and Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
           THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
70 to 110-seat Jets Future


           1. Traffic growth on RJ 50 routes
REGIONAL




           2. Capacity increase on regional routes at peak hours

           3. Mainline like services on regional routes


           4. Right-sizing of low load factor narrow body flights
NETWORK




           5. Replacement of old and inefficient jets



           6. Expansion into medium density markets
LOW COST




           7. Similar or higher service level compared to narrow body
                 existing fleets
            THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
The E-Jets Family




The 70 to 110-seat market evolution
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EIS Statistics – E-Jets Family




                                            E170/190 Family

              Operators                                                                             12
              Aircraft in Service                                                                  131
              Flight Hours                                                                 286,200
              Flight Cycles                                                                192,132



Note: As of Mar 28th 2006
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family Orderbook

                                                                                Firm                                                 Firm
                 Aircraft              Customer                                                       Delivered
                                                                               Orders                                               Backlog
                                       ALITALIA                                     6                         6                        0
                                       CIRRUS                                       1                         1                        0
                                       FINNAIR                                     10                         4                        6
                                       GECAS                                        8                         7                        1
                                       LOT POLISH                                   6                         6                        0
                    170                PARAMOUNT*                                   2                         1                        1
                                       REPUBLIC                                    48                        37                        11
                                       SAUDIA                                      15                         2                        13
                                       SWISS                                       15                         0                        15
                                       TAME                                         2                         0                        2
                                       US AIRWAYS                                  85                        28                        57
                                       AIR CANADA                                  15                        14                        1
                    175                LOT POLISH                                   4                         0                        4
                                       GECAS                                        3                         0                        3
                                       AIR CANADA                                  45                         3                        42
                                       COPA                                        12                         2                        10
                                       FINNAIR                                      6                         0                        6
                    190                GECAS                                       20                         0                        20
                                       JETBLUE                                     101                        7                        94
                                       REGIONAL CAE                                 6                         0                        6
                                       TAME                                         1                         0                        1
                                       FLYBE                                       14                         0                        14
                    195                SWISS                                       15                         0                        15
                                  TOTAL                                           440                      118                        322
         * ECC leasing                                                                                                              (Dec 31th, 2005)
   THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Market Forecast

  2006-2025
Embraer Market Forecast

             Worldwide Jet Deliveries by Capacity Segment


            Segment                          2005 - 2014                   2006 - 2015                           2005 - 2024               2006 - 2025


               30 - 60                               650                             500                               1,950                 1,550

              61 – 90                              1,300                           1,300                               2,850                 2,950

             91 – 120                              1,250                           1,550                               3,000                 3,450

              TOTAL                                3,200                           3,350                               7,800                 7,950


                      30 to 120-seat segment value = US$ 180 billion
Source: Embraer
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025)

   30 - 120 Seats: 7,950 Jets



                                                                                          Russia & CIS
                                  USA, Canada                                      Europe     525
                                  & Caribbean                                       1,450    7%
                                     4,230                                          18%                                             China
                                          53%                                                                                        590
                                                                                    Africa &                                          7%
                                        Latin                                      Middle East
                                       America                                        280                                     Asia
                                         465                                                4%                               Pacific
                                                                                                                              410
                                            6%
                                                                                                                                5%

Source: Embraer
          THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Jet Fleet Evolution (30-120 seats)
Fleet in Service – Current and Embraer´s Projection

                        4,000
                                                  30-60                      61-90                      91-120                         Projected Fleet in Service
                        3,500

                        3,000
   Number of Aircraft




                        2,500

                        2,000

                        1,500

                        1,000

                           500

                               0
                                                1995                            2000                           2005                            2015           2025

Source: Back Aviation and Embraer
                        THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Thank you


70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER
    THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.

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Encontro de Investidores em NY - Mercado de Aviação Comercial

  • 1. Airline Market Outlook The Future Role of 30 to 120-seat Commercial Aircraft New York Frederico Fleury Curado Wednesday, April 12th, 2006 Executive Vice-President, Airline Market
  • 2. Forward Looking Statement This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 3. Contents Current Scenario Key Global Market Trends Important Issues in the 30-120 Seat Segment: RJ 50: an intrinsic part of the air transportation system E-Jets: matching aircraft capacity to market demand Market Forecast THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 4. Positive World Economic Scenario 2006-2025 economic scenario is sustaining Air Travel Demand growth Projected Traffic and Economic Growth by Region (Average Annual Growth) World USA, Canada & Caribbean Latin America Europe RPK Russia & CIS GDP Africa Middle East Asia Pacific China 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Source: Global Insight and Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 5. Increased Air Travel Demand Traffic is recovering at strong growth rates but in another environment 7000 80% RPK ASK Load Factor 78% 6000 76% Billion (RPK & ASK) 5000 % (Load Factor) 74% 4000 72% 3000 70% 68% 2000 66% 1000 64% 0 62% 1995 1996 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 6.3% yoy 7.7% yoy 6.4% yoy Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 6. Revenue Environment World yields are improving, but trend in real terms remains down 105 100 95 Index (1994=100) 90 85 80 75 World Nominal Yield 70 World Real Yield (adj. for US inflation) 65 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F World real yields in 2005 are 28% lower than 1994 values in an environment where LCCs pricing power is the main driver. Source: ICAO (Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight (USA CPI Inflation) and IATA Economics THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 7. End of Cheap Jet Fuel Lack of spare oil production capacity remains high price trend 85 95 Capacity Crude Oil 90 80 Demand Millions of Barrel per Day 85 Jet Fuel Price (US$/Barrel) 75 80 70 75 70 65 65 60 60 55 Current price 55 40% higher than 50 Jan/05 50 45 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Mar05 May05 Jul05 Jan05 Sep05 Nov05 Jan06 For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at US$60 level and jet fuel around US¢170/gallon Source: EIA – Energy Industry Administration (Mar 31st, 2006) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 8. World Financial Net Results Net results improving. Strong net profit expected for 2007. North America -10.8 -5.4 1.1 World -6.0 -2.2 7.2 Europe 1.8 1.4 2.1 2005 2006F 2007F Asia Pacific MEast & Africa 2.9 2.0 3.1 2005 2006F 2007F -0.1 -0.4 0.5 Latin America 2005 2006F 2007F 2005 2006F 2007F 2005 2006F 2007F 0.2 0.2 0.4 2005 2006F 2007F Source: IATA Economics Values in US$ Billion THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 9. Higher Competitive Environment LCC will keep capturing market share from Network carriers USA Domestic RPM Intra Europe RPK 5% 11% 12% 17% 16% 16% 19% 29% 11% 31% 19% 34% 76% 72% 60% 65% 57% 50% 2000 2005 2010E 2000 2005 2010E Netw ork LCC Regional Source: Back Aviation and Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 10. Higher Competitive Environment Top 15 capacity market share declined 13% 100% 90% 80% World Total ASK Share (%) 48% 51% 55% 70% 60% 50% 13% 40% 30% Others 52% 49% Airlines 45% 20% 10% Top 15 Airlines 0% 1995 2000 2005 Top 15 Airlines: American, Delta, United, Continental, British Airways, Northwest, Lufthansa, Source: Back Aviation Air France, Southwest, Japan Airlines, Singapore, US Airways, Qantas, Air Canada, All Nippon THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 11. Strong Effort to Reduce Costs Labor cost reduction has not been enough 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Labor (¢/ASM) 3.55 3.86 3.99 3.86 3.48 3.10 % y-o-y 9% 3% -3% -10% -11% Fuel (¢/ASM) 1.46 1.40 1.23 1.46 1.94 2.57 % y-o-y -4% -12% 18% 33% 32% Ownership (¢/ASM) 1.52 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.60 1.51 Professional Services (¢/ASM) 0.90 0.92 0.88 0.90 0.93 0.98 Landing Fees (¢/ASM) 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.25 Maintenance Material (¢/ASM) 0.29 0.25 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.17 Other (¢/ASM) 2.40 2.65 2.33 2.51 3.07 3.25 Total (¢/ASM) 10.31 10.90 10.52 10.83 11.46 11.84 % y-o-y 6% -3% 3% 6% 3% USA: fuel expenses are burning airline´s cost savings Source: ATA – Air Transport Association (USA Majors and National Passenger Carriers - 3Q05) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 12. LCC & Network Cost Convergence The cost gap is closing USA Europe 8 13 Short-haul unit cost (Euro¢/ASK) Short-haul unit cost (US¢/ASK) Network Network 7 11 6 9 Jetblue easyJet 5 7 4 5 Ryanair Southwest 3 3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 Source: IATA Economics THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 13. What the Passengers Want Pricing and convenient flight schedules are main passengers priorities Top 10 factors of airline choice for SHORT-HAUL flights by region Pricing: 50% Americas • 1st - Americas Europe • 1st - Europe Asia Pacific 40% • 3rd- Asia Pacific Afica & Middle East • 6th- Africa&ME 30% 20% 10% Convenient Flight Schedules: 0% • 2nd - Americas • 2nd - Europe t ts pe n e rd k g e s gh m or tio tim in le gh • 4th - Asia Pacific co ty m fli ic tw du ta fl i re ft ra Pr n g ne pu he ra io of tin og • 3rd - Africa&ME ty irc ct re sc e fe i ty ec pr in ne A e sa ht irl al nn in er on lig tu A irl e fl y co in C nc tf A irl nt y en Po m A ue ni or eq ve tf Fr on es C B Source: IATA - 2005 Corporate Air Travel Survey THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 14. Opportunities for Rightsizing Additional opportunities are still in the marketplace 6,018 routes with less than two average daily frequency 41% USA & Europe Average Daily Frequency by Route Routes operated exclusively by Jet Aircraft 34% from 91 – 175 seats up to 2000 nm % of Routes 17% 6% 2% 0 - 0,5 0,5 - <2 2 - <5 5 - <10 >=10 Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05) Average Daily Frequency THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 15. Opportunities for Rightsizing 2005 USA Domestic Flights (Jet aircraft ≥ 100-seat) 25 49% of flights depart with loads appropriate for 70-110 seat aircraft 20 20 17 16 % of Flights 15 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 1 1 0 <50 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 ≥150 Pax per Departure Airlines could improve efficiency by better Source: Back Aviation (T100) matching demand with aircraft capacity THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 16. Capacity Adjustment Already Under Way USA domestic average seats per aircraft is decreasing 130 128 Seats per Aircraft 126 124 122 120 118 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 The replacement of old / inefficient NB fleet and the deployment of new generation RJs are providing more flexibility and efficiency for airlines. Source: 2006 FAA Report THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 17. Old Jets Replacement Opportunities Ageing World Fleet in Service (61-120 seats) 700 610 735 • 31% of total world fleet is 600 aircraft older than 522 20 years more than 20 years old and 500 Number of Aircraft (Units) shall start to be replaced in 400 the coming years. 316 305 300 214 214 205 • Old technology equipment: 200 inefficient and expensive 100 aircraft to operate. 0 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 >30 Aircraft Age (Years) Source: Back Aviation (Dec/05) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 18. Where is the RJ 50 market going?
  • 19. Regional Airlines – Europe TP 1995 TP 2005 3026 routes 2810 routes 723 aircraft 666 aircraft Av. stage length: Av. stage length: 200 nm (370 km) 231nm (428 km) Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 700% and TP shrank by 8% RJ 1995 RJ 2005 273 routes 1722 routes 37 aircraft 294 aircraft Av. stage length: Av. stage length: 414 nm (767 km) 387 nm (717 km) Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200 and 328JET) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 20. Regional Airlines – USA TP 1995 1908 routes TP 2005 1599 aircraft 902 routes Av. stage length: 740 aircraft 179 nm (332 Km) Av. stage length: 159 nm (295Km) Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 3600% and TP fleet shrank 54% RJ 1995 RJ 2005 180 routes 2888 routes 36 aircraft 1358 aircraft Av. stage length: Av. stage length: 391 nm (724 Km) 395 nm (732 Km) Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 21. RJ 50 in the USA – Main Trends Main Trends that we already know: Mature Market – no additional major orders USA scope relaxation shifted demand to bigger RJs RJ50s will keep their importance as hub feeders and long thin point-to-point routes But, can the RJ50 market get sustained? ... Source: Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 22. USA Hub & Spoke System Hubs are largely dependent on RJs 1. RJs are responsible for 22% of all USA domestic passengers 2. RJs: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger Source: Back Aviation (T100 and OD1A: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET). 2006 FAA Report (DOT Form 41 & Form 298C) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 23. RJ 50 Evolution - USA • Scope Clauses New Markets Opened per Year relaxation Sep 11, 2001 • Low density market opportunities 180 • RJs as single service • Sep 11 impact providers 160 (right-sizing) • Replacing old and 140 inneficicent jets New Markets per Year 120 100 • Scope Clauses • TP avoidance factor 80 • RJ phenomena 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TP Replacement Jet Complement/Replacement New Routes Source: Back Aviation (OAG ; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 24. New Market Opportunities - USA New market opportunities Selection Criteria: 1. Market Demand: 25-75 PDEWs without 136 potential markets direct flights 2. Distance Profile: 250 -- 1500 mi without any direct service 3. Revenue Environment: Yield >= RJ Yield Source: Back Aviation (OAG 2005) Note: RJ Yield Curve = 2005 Yields for ExpressJet and Pinnacle – 1 coupon) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 25. New Market Opportunities – EU Point-to-Point – new routes to secondary cities/airports is increasing 1996-2000 2001-2005 0 40 80 120 160 200 Markets Primary-Primary Primary-Secondary Secondary-Secondary Source: Back Aviation (OAG) and Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 26. RJ 50 Market Opportunities – China Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies. 59% of total routes have less than 1 daily frequency and less than 135 pax/day Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2004. Only domestic routes less than1,500 nm THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 27. RJ 50 Market Opportunities – Russia Old Fleet Replacement 30-60 Seat Segment 244 aircraft 33 years old (average) Yak-40 An-24 Jet – 30 seats Turboprop - 50 seats 122 aircraft 122 aircraft Average Age: 31 yrs Average Age: 34 yrs 61-90 91-120 Seat Segment Seat Segment Tu-134 Jet - 76 seats Yak-42 Jet - 120 seats 123 aircraft 54 aircraft Average Age: 28 yrs Average Age: 17 yrs Source: BACK (Fleet PC Feb06) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 28. RJ 50 Parked Aircraft Parked Region Aircraft Type (as of Mar/06) Africa ERJ 145 1 CRJ00/200/440 15 Europe ERJ145 2 Latin America ERJ145 5 USA, Canada & Caribbean CRJ100/200/440 90 Parked % of Fleet Region Aircraft Type Parked (as of Mar/06) CRJ100/200/440 105 10% WORLD ERJ145 8 1% Total 113 6% Source: Back Aviation (Fleet PC Mar31,2006) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 29. RJ 50 Residual Value (RV) Evolution RV by Quarter at 12 Years Age 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 US$ Million 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 ERJ 145 1.00 CRJ-200 0.00 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 ERJ 145s are sustaining Residual Values Source: MBA Avitas Airclaims, et al THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 30. RJ 50s Future 1. Will remain the backbone of USA hub feeding system 2. Potential for increasing frequencies in the USA and EU 3. New market opportunities in the USA and EU 4. Potential in China, Russia and other markets 5. Secondary market developing 6. ERJ 145 retaining Residual Values THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 31. ERJ 145 Family Orderbook Firm Firm (as of December 31st, 2005) Options Total Deliveries Backlog Orders ERJ 135 123 2 125 108 15 ERJ 140 94 20 114 74 20 ERJ 145 677 157 834 667 10 Total 894 179 1,073 849 45 THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 32. ERJ 145 Family The Evolution of Regionals THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 33. The 70 to 110-seat jet market evolution
  • 34. USA Domestic: Pax & Seats per Departure Jet aircraft (70-150 Seats) 35% Pax/Dep 2000 Seats/Dep 2000 Pax/Dep 2005 Seats/Dep 2005 30% 2000 25% Seats/dep 20% 2000 Pax/dep 2005 % of Flights 15% 2005 10% 5% 0% <50 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 ≥150 USA Industry is becoming more efficient through better matching demand with aircraft capacity Source: Back Aviation (T100) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 35. USA Dom.: Further Capacity Adjustment Opportunities Load Factor distribution for USA domestic jet flights 20-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-95% 4000000 3000000 Number of Flights 2000000 1000000 0 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 RJ 50 70-110 Narrow-body (120-150) There are further opportunities in the capacity adjustment process Source: Back Aviation (T100) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 36. USA Dom.: Detail of Capacity Adjustment Opportunities 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 Natural Growth Right-sizing 0 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 400000 Number of Annual Flights 300000 200000 100000 E-Jets: The 70 to 110-seat market evolution 0 RJ 50 NB 120-150 Source: Back Aviatio (T100 2005) LFactor: 81-95% LFactor: 20-60% THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 37. E-Jets Family @ USA and Canada % of Routes (4Q05) New Route Right-sizing Natural Growth 100% 14% 75% 41% 50% 25% 45% 0% Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 38. E-Jets Family @ USA and Canada 28 E170 Dec/05: Dec/05: 89 EMBRAER 170/190 in service 89 EMBRAER 170/190 in service 78 routes 228 routes Avg. Stage Length: 228 routes 532 nm (985 km) Avg. Stage Length: 556 nm (1030 km) Avg. Stage Length: 556 nm (1030 km) 14 E175 3 E190 28 E170 7 E190 9 E170 28 routes 18 routes 64 routes 20 routes 20 routes Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: 468 nm (867 km) 624 nm (1156 km) 553 nm (1024 km) 344 nm (637 km) 1120 nm (2074 km) Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 39. E-Jets Family @ Europe % of Routes (4Q05) New Route Rightsizing Natural Growth 100% 4% 75% 57% 50% 25% 39% 0% Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 40. E-Jets Family @ Europe 10 E170 6 E170 74 routes 22 routes Avg. Stage Length: 539 nm Avg. Stage Length: 361 nm 4 E170 1 E170 36 routes 6 routes Avg. Stage Length: 396 nm Avg. Stage Length: 456 nm Dec/05: Dec/05: 21 EMBRAER 170 in service 21 EMBRAER 170 in service 187 routes 187 routes Avg. Stage Length: 464 nm (859 Km) Avg. Stage Length: 464 nm (859 Km) Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 41. E-Jets Family @ Asia & Middle East % of Routes (Feb06) New Route Rightsizing Natural Growth 100% 77 Dec/05: EMBRAER 170/190 in service Dec/05: EMBRAER 170/190 in service 29% 66 routes 66 routes 75% Avg. Stage Length: 319 nm (591 km) Avg. Stage Length: 319 nm (591 km) 50% 71% 25% 1 E170 1 E170 5 E170 2 routes 3 routes 61 routes Avg. Stage Length: 598 nm Avg. Stage Length: 417 nm Avg. Stage Length: 305 nm 0% Source: Back Aviation (OAG Feb/06) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 42. Beyond the Current Models... There is a need for a new TOOL Regional Airlines RASK / M Network Airlines Low Cost Carriers E-Jets Capacity THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 43. E-Jets Family – Efficiency to all Business Models Regional Network Low Cost Source: 4Q05 Embraer Orderbook and Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 44. 70 to 110-seat Jets Future 1. Traffic growth on RJ 50 routes REGIONAL 2. Capacity increase on regional routes at peak hours 3. Mainline like services on regional routes 4. Right-sizing of low load factor narrow body flights NETWORK 5. Replacement of old and inefficient jets 6. Expansion into medium density markets LOW COST 7. Similar or higher service level compared to narrow body existing fleets THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 45. The E-Jets Family The 70 to 110-seat market evolution THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 46. EIS Statistics – E-Jets Family E170/190 Family Operators 12 Aircraft in Service 131 Flight Hours 286,200 Flight Cycles 192,132 Note: As of Mar 28th 2006 THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 47. E-Jets Family Orderbook Firm Firm Aircraft Customer Delivered Orders Backlog ALITALIA 6 6 0 CIRRUS 1 1 0 FINNAIR 10 4 6 GECAS 8 7 1 LOT POLISH 6 6 0 170 PARAMOUNT* 2 1 1 REPUBLIC 48 37 11 SAUDIA 15 2 13 SWISS 15 0 15 TAME 2 0 2 US AIRWAYS 85 28 57 AIR CANADA 15 14 1 175 LOT POLISH 4 0 4 GECAS 3 0 3 AIR CANADA 45 3 42 COPA 12 2 10 FINNAIR 6 0 6 190 GECAS 20 0 20 JETBLUE 101 7 94 REGIONAL CAE 6 0 6 TAME 1 0 1 FLYBE 14 0 14 195 SWISS 15 0 15 TOTAL 440 118 322 * ECC leasing (Dec 31th, 2005) THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 48. Market Forecast 2006-2025
  • 49. Embraer Market Forecast Worldwide Jet Deliveries by Capacity Segment Segment 2005 - 2014 2006 - 2015 2005 - 2024 2006 - 2025 30 - 60 650 500 1,950 1,550 61 – 90 1,300 1,300 2,850 2,950 91 – 120 1,250 1,550 3,000 3,450 TOTAL 3,200 3,350 7,800 7,950 30 to 120-seat segment value = US$ 180 billion Source: Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 50. Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025) 30 - 120 Seats: 7,950 Jets Russia & CIS USA, Canada Europe 525 & Caribbean 1,450 7% 4,230 18% China 53% 590 Africa & 7% Latin Middle East America 280 Asia 465 4% Pacific 410 6% 5% Source: Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 51. Jet Fleet Evolution (30-120 seats) Fleet in Service – Current and Embraer´s Projection 4,000 30-60 61-90 91-120 Projected Fleet in Service 3,500 3,000 Number of Aircraft 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 2000 2005 2015 2025 Source: Back Aviation and Embraer THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
  • 52. Thank you 70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.