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Encontro de Investidores em NY - Mercado de Aviação Comercial
1. Airline Market
Outlook
The Future Role of
30 to 120-seat
Commercial
Aircraft
New York
Frederico Fleury Curado Wednesday, April 12th, 2006
Executive Vice-President, Airline Market
2. Forward Looking Statement
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or
circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements
largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends
affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking
statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other
things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our
market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”
“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We
undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements
because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and
uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation
might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our
forward-looking statements.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
3. Contents
Current Scenario
Key Global Market Trends
Important Issues in the 30-120 Seat Segment:
RJ 50: an intrinsic part of the air transportation system
E-Jets: matching aircraft capacity to market demand
Market Forecast
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
4. Positive World Economic Scenario
2006-2025 economic scenario is sustaining Air Travel Demand growth
Projected Traffic and Economic Growth by Region (Average Annual Growth)
World
USA, Canada & Caribbean
Latin America
Europe
RPK
Russia & CIS GDP
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
China
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Source: Global Insight and Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
5. Increased Air Travel Demand
Traffic is recovering at strong growth rates but in another environment
7000 80%
RPK ASK Load Factor
78%
6000
76%
Billion (RPK & ASK)
5000
% (Load Factor)
74%
4000 72%
3000 70%
68%
2000
66%
1000
64%
0 62%
1995
1996
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006F
2007F
6.3% yoy 7.7% yoy 6.4% yoy
Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
6. Revenue Environment
World yields are improving, but trend in real terms remains down
105
100
95
Index (1994=100)
90
85
80
75
World Nominal Yield
70
World Real Yield (adj. for US inflation)
65
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F
World real yields in 2005 are 28% lower than 1994 values in an
environment where LCCs pricing power is the main driver.
Source: ICAO (Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight (USA CPI Inflation) and IATA Economics
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
7. End of Cheap Jet Fuel
Lack of spare oil production capacity remains high price trend
85 95
Capacity Crude Oil
90
80 Demand
Millions of Barrel per Day
85 Jet Fuel
Price (US$/Barrel)
75 80
70 75
70
65
65
60 60
55 Current price
55 40% higher than
50 Jan/05
50 45
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Mar05
May05
Jul05
Jan05
Sep05
Nov05
Jan06
For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at US$60
level and jet fuel around US¢170/gallon
Source: EIA – Energy Industry Administration (Mar 31st, 2006)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
8. World Financial Net Results
Net results improving. Strong net profit expected for 2007.
North America
-10.8 -5.4 1.1 World
-6.0 -2.2 7.2
Europe
1.8 1.4 2.1
2005 2006F 2007F
Asia Pacific
MEast & Africa 2.9 2.0 3.1
2005 2006F 2007F -0.1 -0.4 0.5
Latin America 2005 2006F 2007F 2005 2006F 2007F 2005 2006F 2007F
0.2 0.2 0.4
2005 2006F 2007F
Source: IATA Economics Values in US$ Billion
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
9. Higher Competitive Environment
LCC will keep capturing market share from Network carriers
USA Domestic RPM Intra Europe RPK
5%
11% 12%
17% 16% 16%
19%
29% 11%
31% 19%
34%
76% 72%
60% 65%
57%
50%
2000 2005 2010E 2000 2005 2010E
Netw ork LCC Regional
Source: Back Aviation and Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
10. Higher Competitive Environment
Top 15 capacity market share declined 13%
100%
90%
80%
World Total ASK Share (%)
48% 51% 55%
70%
60%
50% 13%
40%
30% Others
52% 49% Airlines
45%
20%
10% Top 15
Airlines
0%
1995 2000 2005
Top 15 Airlines: American, Delta, United, Continental, British Airways, Northwest, Lufthansa,
Source: Back Aviation Air France, Southwest, Japan Airlines, Singapore, US Airways, Qantas, Air Canada, All Nippon
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
11. Strong Effort to Reduce Costs
Labor cost reduction has not been enough
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Labor (¢/ASM) 3.55 3.86 3.99 3.86 3.48 3.10
% y-o-y 9% 3% -3% -10% -11%
Fuel (¢/ASM) 1.46 1.40 1.23 1.46 1.94 2.57
% y-o-y -4% -12% 18% 33% 32%
Ownership (¢/ASM) 1.52 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.60 1.51
Professional Services (¢/ASM) 0.90 0.92 0.88 0.90 0.93 0.98
Landing Fees (¢/ASM) 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.25
Maintenance Material (¢/ASM) 0.29 0.25 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.17
Other (¢/ASM) 2.40 2.65 2.33 2.51 3.07 3.25
Total (¢/ASM) 10.31 10.90 10.52 10.83 11.46 11.84
% y-o-y 6% -3% 3% 6% 3%
USA: fuel expenses are burning airline´s cost savings
Source: ATA – Air Transport Association (USA Majors and National Passenger Carriers - 3Q05)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
12. LCC & Network Cost Convergence
The cost gap is closing
USA Europe
8 13
Short-haul unit cost (Euro¢/ASK)
Short-haul unit cost (US¢/ASK)
Network Network
7 11
6 9
Jetblue easyJet
5 7
4 5 Ryanair
Southwest
3 3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004
Source: IATA Economics
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
13. What the Passengers Want
Pricing and convenient flight schedules are main passengers priorities
Top 10 factors of airline choice for SHORT-HAUL flights by region
Pricing:
50% Americas
• 1st - Americas
Europe
• 1st - Europe
Asia Pacific
40% • 3rd- Asia Pacific
Afica & Middle East
• 6th- Africa&ME
30%
20%
10% Convenient Flight
Schedules:
0% • 2nd - Americas
• 2nd - Europe
t
ts
pe
n
e
rd
k
g
e
s
gh
m
or
tio
tim
in
le
gh
• 4th - Asia Pacific
co
ty
m
fli
ic
tw
du
ta
fl i
re
ft
ra
Pr
n
g
ne
pu
he
ra
io
of
tin
og
• 3rd - Africa&ME
ty
irc
ct
re
sc
e
fe
i ty
ec
pr
in
ne
A
e
sa
ht
irl
al
nn
in
er
on
lig
tu
A
irl
e
fl y
co
in
C
nc
tf
A
irl
nt
y
en
Po
m
A
ue
ni
or
eq
ve
tf
Fr
on
es
C
B
Source: IATA - 2005 Corporate Air Travel Survey
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
14. Opportunities for Rightsizing
Additional opportunities are still in the marketplace
6,018
routes with less than two
average daily frequency
41%
USA & Europe
Average Daily Frequency by Route
Routes operated exclusively by Jet Aircraft
34%
from 91 – 175 seats up to 2000 nm
% of Routes
17%
6%
2%
0 - 0,5 0,5 - <2 2 - <5 5 - <10 >=10
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05) Average Daily Frequency
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
15. Opportunities for Rightsizing
2005 USA Domestic Flights (Jet aircraft ≥ 100-seat)
25 49% of flights
depart with loads appropriate
for 70-110 seat aircraft 20
20
17
16
% of Flights
15
10
10
8
7
6 6
5
5
3
1 1
0
<50 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 ≥150
Pax per Departure
Airlines could improve efficiency by better
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
matching demand with aircraft capacity
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
16. Capacity Adjustment Already Under Way
USA domestic average seats per aircraft is decreasing
130
128
Seats per Aircraft
126
124
122
120
118
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
The replacement of old / inefficient NB fleet and the deployment of new
generation RJs are providing more flexibility and efficiency for airlines.
Source: 2006 FAA Report
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
17. Old Jets Replacement Opportunities
Ageing World Fleet in Service (61-120 seats)
700
610 735 • 31% of total world fleet is
600 aircraft older than
522 20 years more than 20 years old and
500
Number of Aircraft (Units)
shall start to be replaced in
400
the coming years.
316
305
300
214 214 205 • Old technology equipment:
200
inefficient and expensive
100
aircraft to operate.
0
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 >30
Aircraft Age (Years)
Source: Back Aviation (Dec/05)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
19. Regional Airlines – Europe
TP 1995 TP 2005
3026 routes 2810 routes
723 aircraft 666 aircraft
Av. stage length: Av. stage length:
200 nm (370 km) 231nm (428 km)
Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 700%
and TP shrank by 8%
RJ 1995 RJ 2005
273 routes 1722 routes
37 aircraft 294 aircraft
Av. stage length: Av. stage length:
414 nm (767 km) 387 nm (717 km)
Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200 and 328JET)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
20. Regional Airlines – USA
TP 1995
1908 routes
TP 2005
1599 aircraft 902 routes
Av. stage length: 740 aircraft
179 nm (332 Km) Av. stage length:
159 nm (295Km)
Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 3600%
and TP fleet shrank 54%
RJ 1995 RJ 2005
180 routes
2888 routes
36 aircraft
1358 aircraft
Av. stage length:
Av. stage length:
391 nm (724 Km)
395 nm (732 Km)
Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
21. RJ 50 in the USA – Main Trends
Main Trends that we already know:
Mature Market – no additional major orders
USA scope relaxation shifted demand to bigger RJs
RJ50s will keep their importance as hub feeders and long
thin point-to-point routes
But, can the RJ50 market get sustained?
...
Source: Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
22. USA Hub & Spoke System
Hubs are largely dependent on RJs
1. RJs are responsible for 22% of all USA domestic passengers
2. RJs: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger
Source: Back Aviation (T100 and OD1A: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET). 2006 FAA Report (DOT Form 41 & Form 298C)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
23. RJ 50 Evolution - USA
• Scope Clauses
New Markets Opened per Year relaxation
Sep 11, 2001 • Low density market
opportunities
180 • RJs as single service
• Sep 11 impact providers
160 (right-sizing)
• Replacing old and
140 inneficicent jets
New Markets per Year
120
100 • Scope Clauses
• TP avoidance factor
80 • RJ phenomena
60
40
20
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
TP Replacement Jet Complement/Replacement New Routes
Source: Back Aviation (OAG ; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
24. New Market Opportunities - USA
New market opportunities
Selection Criteria:
1. Market Demand: 25-75 PDEWs without
136 potential markets
direct flights
2. Distance Profile: 250 -- 1500 mi
without any direct service
3. Revenue Environment: Yield >= RJ Yield
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 2005) Note: RJ Yield Curve = 2005 Yields for ExpressJet and Pinnacle – 1 coupon)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
25. New Market Opportunities – EU
Point-to-Point – new routes to secondary cities/airports is increasing
1996-2000
2001-2005
0 40 80 120 160 200
Markets
Primary-Primary
Primary-Secondary
Secondary-Secondary
Source: Back Aviation (OAG) and Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
26. RJ 50 Market Opportunities – China
Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies.
59% of total
routes have less
than 1 daily
frequency and
less than
135 pax/day
Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2004. Only domestic routes less than1,500 nm
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
27. RJ 50 Market Opportunities – Russia
Old Fleet Replacement
30-60
Seat Segment
244 aircraft
33 years old
(average)
Yak-40 An-24
Jet – 30 seats Turboprop - 50 seats
122 aircraft 122 aircraft
Average Age: 31 yrs Average Age: 34 yrs
61-90 91-120
Seat Segment Seat Segment
Tu-134 Jet - 76 seats Yak-42 Jet - 120 seats
123 aircraft 54 aircraft
Average Age: 28 yrs Average Age: 17 yrs
Source: BACK (Fleet PC Feb06)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
28. RJ 50 Parked Aircraft
Parked
Region Aircraft Type
(as of Mar/06)
Africa ERJ 145 1
CRJ00/200/440 15
Europe
ERJ145 2
Latin America ERJ145 5
USA, Canada & Caribbean CRJ100/200/440 90
Parked % of Fleet
Region Aircraft Type Parked
(as of Mar/06)
CRJ100/200/440 105 10%
WORLD ERJ145 8 1%
Total 113 6%
Source: Back Aviation (Fleet PC Mar31,2006)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
29. RJ 50 Residual Value (RV) Evolution
RV by Quarter at 12 Years Age
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
US$ Million
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00 ERJ 145
1.00 CRJ-200
0.00
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
02
03
03
03
03
04
04
04
04
05
05
05
05
06
06
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
ERJ 145s are sustaining Residual Values
Source: MBA Avitas Airclaims, et al
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
30. RJ 50s Future
1. Will remain the backbone of USA hub feeding system
2. Potential for increasing frequencies in the USA and EU
3. New market opportunities in the USA and EU
4. Potential in China, Russia and other markets
5. Secondary market developing
6. ERJ 145 retaining Residual Values
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
31. ERJ 145 Family Orderbook
Firm Firm
(as of December 31st, 2005) Options Total Deliveries Backlog
Orders
ERJ 135 123 2 125 108 15
ERJ 140 94 20 114 74 20
ERJ 145 677 157 834 667 10
Total 894 179 1,073 849 45
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
32. ERJ 145 Family
The Evolution of Regionals
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
34. USA Domestic: Pax & Seats per Departure
Jet aircraft (70-150 Seats)
35%
Pax/Dep 2000 Seats/Dep 2000
Pax/Dep 2005 Seats/Dep 2005
30%
2000
25%
Seats/dep
20% 2000
Pax/dep 2005
% of Flights
15%
2005
10%
5%
0%
<50 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 ≥150
USA Industry is becoming more efficient through
better matching demand with aircraft capacity
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
35. USA Dom.: Further Capacity Adjustment Opportunities
Load Factor distribution for USA domestic jet flights
20-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-95%
4000000
3000000
Number of Flights
2000000
1000000
0
2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005
RJ 50 70-110 Narrow-body (120-150)
There are further opportunities in the
capacity adjustment process
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
36. USA Dom.: Detail of Capacity Adjustment Opportunities
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000 Natural Growth Right-sizing
0
2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005
400000
Number of Annual Flights
300000
200000
100000
E-Jets: The 70 to 110-seat
market evolution
0
RJ 50 NB 120-150
Source: Back Aviatio (T100 2005) LFactor: 81-95% LFactor: 20-60%
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
37. E-Jets Family @ USA and Canada
% of Routes (4Q05)
New Route
Right-sizing
Natural Growth
100%
14%
75%
41%
50%
25% 45%
0%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
38. E-Jets Family @ USA and Canada
28 E170
Dec/05:
Dec/05:
89 EMBRAER 170/190 in service
89 EMBRAER 170/190 in service 78 routes
228 routes Avg. Stage Length:
228 routes 532 nm (985 km)
Avg. Stage Length: 556 nm (1030 km)
Avg. Stage Length: 556 nm (1030 km)
14 E175 3 E190 28 E170 7 E190 9 E170
28 routes 18 routes 64 routes 20 routes 20 routes
Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length: Avg. Stage Length:
468 nm (867 km) 624 nm (1156 km) 553 nm (1024 km) 344 nm (637 km) 1120 nm (2074 km)
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
39. E-Jets Family @ Europe
% of Routes (4Q05)
New Route
Rightsizing
Natural Growth
100% 4%
75%
57%
50%
25%
39%
0%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
40. E-Jets Family @ Europe
10 E170 6 E170
74 routes 22 routes
Avg. Stage Length: 539 nm Avg. Stage Length: 361 nm
4 E170 1 E170
36 routes 6 routes
Avg. Stage Length: 396 nm Avg. Stage Length: 456 nm
Dec/05:
Dec/05: 21 EMBRAER 170 in service
21 EMBRAER 170 in service
187 routes
187 routes
Avg. Stage Length: 464 nm (859 Km)
Avg. Stage Length: 464 nm (859 Km)
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
41. E-Jets Family @ Asia & Middle East
% of Routes (Feb06)
New Route
Rightsizing
Natural Growth
100%
77
Dec/05: EMBRAER 170/190 in service
Dec/05: EMBRAER 170/190 in service 29%
66 routes
66 routes 75%
Avg. Stage Length: 319 nm (591 km)
Avg. Stage Length: 319 nm (591 km)
50%
71%
25%
1 E170 1 E170 5 E170
2 routes 3 routes 61 routes
Avg. Stage Length: 598 nm Avg. Stage Length: 417 nm Avg. Stage Length: 305 nm 0%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG Feb/06)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
42. Beyond the Current Models...
There is a need for a new TOOL
Regional Airlines
RASK / M
Network Airlines
Low Cost
Carriers
E-Jets
Capacity
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
43. E-Jets Family – Efficiency to all Business Models
Regional Network Low Cost
Source: 4Q05 Embraer Orderbook and Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05 routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
44. 70 to 110-seat Jets Future
1. Traffic growth on RJ 50 routes
REGIONAL
2. Capacity increase on regional routes at peak hours
3. Mainline like services on regional routes
4. Right-sizing of low load factor narrow body flights
NETWORK
5. Replacement of old and inefficient jets
6. Expansion into medium density markets
LOW COST
7. Similar or higher service level compared to narrow body
existing fleets
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
45. The E-Jets Family
The 70 to 110-seat market evolution
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
46. EIS Statistics – E-Jets Family
E170/190 Family
Operators 12
Aircraft in Service 131
Flight Hours 286,200
Flight Cycles 192,132
Note: As of Mar 28th 2006
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
47. E-Jets Family Orderbook
Firm Firm
Aircraft Customer Delivered
Orders Backlog
ALITALIA 6 6 0
CIRRUS 1 1 0
FINNAIR 10 4 6
GECAS 8 7 1
LOT POLISH 6 6 0
170 PARAMOUNT* 2 1 1
REPUBLIC 48 37 11
SAUDIA 15 2 13
SWISS 15 0 15
TAME 2 0 2
US AIRWAYS 85 28 57
AIR CANADA 15 14 1
175 LOT POLISH 4 0 4
GECAS 3 0 3
AIR CANADA 45 3 42
COPA 12 2 10
FINNAIR 6 0 6
190 GECAS 20 0 20
JETBLUE 101 7 94
REGIONAL CAE 6 0 6
TAME 1 0 1
FLYBE 14 0 14
195 SWISS 15 0 15
TOTAL 440 118 322
* ECC leasing (Dec 31th, 2005)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
49. Embraer Market Forecast
Worldwide Jet Deliveries by Capacity Segment
Segment 2005 - 2014 2006 - 2015 2005 - 2024 2006 - 2025
30 - 60 650 500 1,950 1,550
61 – 90 1,300 1,300 2,850 2,950
91 – 120 1,250 1,550 3,000 3,450
TOTAL 3,200 3,350 7,800 7,950
30 to 120-seat segment value = US$ 180 billion
Source: Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
50. Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025)
30 - 120 Seats: 7,950 Jets
Russia & CIS
USA, Canada Europe 525
& Caribbean 1,450 7%
4,230 18% China
53% 590
Africa & 7%
Latin Middle East
America 280 Asia
465 4% Pacific
410
6%
5%
Source: Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
51. Jet Fleet Evolution (30-120 seats)
Fleet in Service – Current and Embraer´s Projection
4,000
30-60 61-90 91-120 Projected Fleet in Service
3,500
3,000
Number of Aircraft
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1995 2000 2005 2015 2025
Source: Back Aviation and Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
52. Thank you
70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.