Economy requires more graduatesPeople driving the economy now are not the ones who are growing the youth populationIncoming students have greater challengesPreparationParticipationAffordability
Our business model is still geo-centric and depends on physical capital, expensive equipment, acreage, etc. Business model fails to optimize key resources (e.g., empty classroom seats) and tends to ignore potential synergies, partnerships, etc.
Business model is becoming non-viableAll revenue sources are maxing outRevenue and expense trend lines are not sustainableAs these trends show in graph on the next page.
State funds are not keeping up with cost per FTE (so institutions turn to other sources, especially tuition), while tuition soars over CPI (the “easiest” source of additional funds, until it hits a wall; demographics mean more students are keenly price sensitive, while tuition is ever-farther out of reach). “If a trend cannot continue … it won’t!”
Rockefeller Institute predicts that state shortfalls will continue through the “teens” decade and could AVERAGE up to -7% from 2009-2013. Universities can forget about state incentive money for new programs to reach the new students and increase the graduation rate. In fact, they will indeed have to do more with less.
Further illustration of the affordability gap. People often complain about their increasing inability to afford a new car of their prescriptions drugs, and the nation is boiling over the cost of health insurance – yet tuition at all institutional types has risen faster than any of these!
All of this means that change is in order for most if not all of us, and we will either create the changes we can believe in or be changed by the forces at work. Change is often uncomfortable, and many of you are or will be in very difficult and uncomfortable circumstances. Boats will be rocked and some turned over. Some people will not be happy (bring in the warrior).
These are the foundation elements for successful organizations. Their long-term existence depends on success in ALL FOUR. The good news is that one of them (market) is clearly present. In what areas might your university find the greatest payoff for improvement? Are there any areas of deficit/concern that must be addressed?
All action plans need specific goals – here called strategic indicators – that we use as touchstones for all our decisions. For example, “If we do X, will it move the needle on Goal 3?”The “Action” circle is implementation, where the heavy lifting typically involves little or no time from you as leaders. Instead, you must take responsibility for everything else on the screen!The most efficient and effective pathway to the strategic indicators comes from making sure that your goals, financial plans, and actions are ALIGNED and that you TRACK progress, making course corrections as you learn from experience.
What do strategic indicators look like? Here are some examples based on your five goals. Once you have indicators, you ask “What level of performance in what time frame do we aim to achieve (strategic goals)? What will CAUSE the needs to move on these (action plan)? And what business model and resources are required to achieve the progress and sustain the organization (strategic finance, resource plan)?
So far, the typical university has not embraced strategic change as a response to the financial downturn. Given the conditions we discussed this morning, typical responses are likely to prove quite inadequate.
Among other things, typical responses are reactive hunkering down. They do not strengthen the institution, foster growth, or prepare the institution for future conditions.
“More money” is not a realistic answer. We will find the funds we need in other ways, at least for the time being.
This list is actions that are primarily administrative, some in close consultation with faculty.
This list is oriented more toward faculty governance initiatives that administrators can encourage.
Ways to make enrollment more affordable for students.
This is a CHANGE agenda. Keep goals at the forefront and work to/from the Big Picture, learning as you go.