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SWOT 
Analysis 
Fair 
Trade 
= 
Collabora9on 
at 
the 
heart 
of 
a 
true 
trading 
partnership, 
sharing 
and 
partnering 
values, 
ideas, 
risks, 
rewards, 
passion 
and 
purpose. 
EK 
– 
05/05/11 
Fairtrade 
Coffee
Star9ng 
from 
the 
beginning…
What 
is 
coffee 
for 
me?
For 
me, 
coffee 
is 
about 
people…
…people 
who 
produce 
coffee,
…people 
that 
handle 
and 
trade 
coffee,
…and 
people 
that 
consume 
and 
loves 
coffee!
➜ 
KEY 
QUESTIONS 
Are 
we 
having 
the 
posi1ve 
impact 
we 
intend? 
➜ 
In 
this 
new 
market 
scenarii, 
how 
do 
we 
actually 
deliver 
to 
all 
stakeholders 
the 
promise 
of 
Fairtrade 
coffee? 
➜ 
Given 
the 
current 
global 
context, 
what 
are 
the 
key 
issues 
and 
the 
right 
coffee 
price 
policy 
we 
should 
be 
addressing 
now? 
➜ 
Are 
our 
solu1ons 
oriented 
towards 
the 
problems 
of 
15 
years 
ago, 
versus 
problems 
of 
today, 
or 
of 
the 
future? 
➜ 
What 
would 
the 
right 
approach 
look 
like? 
➜ 
What 
ac1ons 
should 
be 
implemented 
to 
meet 
accelerated 
growth 
with 
integrity?
Coffee 
Background 
& 
Market 
Fundamentals
“Coffee 
price 
vola9lity 
is 
not 
a 
recent 
phenomenon. 
Because 
coffee 
yields 
are 
vulnerable 
to 
temperature 
or 
precipita9on 
changes 
as 
well 
as 
disease, 
the 
volume 
of 
produc9on 
can 
vary 
widely 
from 
one 
year 
to 
the 
other, 
which 
causes 
prices 
to 
spike. 
The 
vulnerability 
is 
enhanced 
by 
the 
rela9vely 
high 
degree 
of 
dependence 
the 
world 
coffee 
supply 
has 
on 
Brazil. 
Vola9lity 
is 
also 
the 
result 
of 
the 
‘natural 
coffee 
cycle.’ 
When 
prices 
increase, 
farmers 
are 
encouraged 
to 
use 
more 
inputs 
and 
expand 
plan9ng 
to 
take 
advantage 
of 
higher 
prices. 
This 
addi9onal 
produc9on 
contributes 
to 
depressed 
prices 
as 
supply 
expands. 
When 
prices 
decline, 
farmers 
stop 
using 
inputs 
to 
reduce 
produc9on 
costs, 
which 
reduces 
yields 
and 
contributes 
to 
price 
increases. 
This 
is 
exacerbated 
by 
the 
lag 
between 
planta9on 
and 
harvest, 
which 
varies 
between 
18 
and 
24 
months. 
The 
yield 
of 
the 
coffee 
tree 
peaks 
a_er 
5 
to 
7 
years. 
While 
the 
investment 
response 
to 
price 
change 
is 
very 
quick, 
the 
output 
response 
to 
investment 
is 
slow. 
As 
a 
result, 
the 
extra 
supply 
might 
arrive 
on 
the 
market 
when 
prices 
are 
on 
the 
decline, 
magnifying 
the 
downturn 
in 
the 
coffee 
cycle.” 
Oxfam: 
Interna9onal 
Commodity 
Research 
– 
Coffee, 
The 
Coffee 
Market, 
a 
background 
studio
20 
years 
of 
coffee 
prices 
-­‐ 
supply/demand 
cycle 
The 
regular 
coffee 
market 
prices 
scenarii: 
Normal 
coffee 
prices 
scenarii 
for 
cer0fied 
coffee 
farms
Actual 
coffee 
market 
scenarii 
– 
1st 
half 
April 
☝ 
Arabica 
The 
actual 
facts: 
Coffee 
costs 
90% 
more 
today 
than 
it 
did 
a 
year 
ago… 
☂ 
Robusta 
Climate 
change 
is 
having 
an 
impact 
on 
areas 
that 
produce 
coffee… 
✄ 
Supply 
is 
strained… 
☹ 
Social 
problems 
persist 
and 
paradoxically, 
some 
farmers 
con9nue 
to 
grapple 
with 
basic 
issues 
such 
as 
food, 
health, 
educa9on, 
etc.
Market 
vola9lity 
/ 
bull 
run 
The 
regular 
coffee 
market 
prices 
scenarii: 
World 
coffee 
prices 
reached 
14-­‐year 
highs 
in 
the 
first 
quarter 
of 
2011. 
The 
March 
monthly 
average 
of 
the 
ICO 
composite 
indicator 
price 
rose 
by 
3.8%, 
from 
216.03 
US 
cents/lb 
in 
February 
to 
224.33 
US 
cents/lb. 
This 
monthly 
average 
un9l 
5 
April 
2011, 
is 
the 
highest 
recorded 
since 
June 
1977. 
Source 
: 
ICO 
Monthly 
Report
Consump9on 
Produc9on 
Stocks 
Source: 
FAO 
Outlook 
for 
the 
World 
Coffee 
Market 
2010-­‐2019, 
106th 
Session 
of 
the 
ICO, 
28-­‐31 
March 
2011
➡ 
Highlight 
Producer 
stocks 
are 
at 
a 
dangerously 
low 
level 
as 
the 
market 
is 
heading 
towards 
the 
Brazilian 
off-­‐year 
crop 
2011/12, 
and 
the 
situa9on 
in 
impor9ng 
countries 
is 
also 
strained 
as 
there 
has 
been 
a 
steady 
decline 
of 
(registered) 
stocks. 
Total 
ICE 
cer9fied 
Arabica 
stocks, 
including 
those 
in 
the 
three 
European 
ports 
of 
Antwerp, 
Hamburg 
and 
Bremen, 
at 
the 
end 
of 
January 
2011 
were 
1.6 
mln 
bags, 
down 
from 
2.9 
mln 
last 
year 
and 
as 
much 
as 
4.3 
mln 
two 
years 
ago. 
Robusta 
stocks 
in 
LIFFEE-­‐nominated 
warehouses 
fell 
to 
3.9 
mln 
bags 
by 
the 
end 
of 
January 
2011 
from 
5.0 
mln 
at 
the 
same 
9me 
a 
year 
ago.
➡ 
New 
York 
ICE 
futures 
prices 
have 
averaged 
273 
c/lb 
in 
March 
➡ 
LIFFE 
prices 
have 
averaged 
$2,492 
per 
tonne 
in 
March 
so 
far 
➡ 
FORECAST 
– 
as 
for 
1st 
quarter 
2011 
Global 
output 
is 
expected 
to 
reach 
129.0 
mn 
bags 
in 
2010/11 
with 
the 
harvest 
of 
an 
off-­‐year 
Brazilian 
crop 
of 
47 
mln 
bags 
➡ 
Global 
consump1on 
is 
forecasted 
at 
135.6 
mln 
bags 
➡ 
This 
means 
a 
deficit 
of 
6.6 
mln 
bags 
for 
arabica 
and 
robusta 
➡ 
Es9mates 
for 
2011/12 
suggest 
that 
the 
9ghtness 
in 
the 
overall 
market 
should 
ease 
with 
Brazilian 
output 
cyclically 
higher 
➡ 
Colombian 
produc9on 
could 
recover 
to 
almost 
10 
mln 
bags 
as 
new 
trees 
from 
the 
replan9ng 
program 
of 
last 
few 
years 
start 
to 
come 
into 
produc9on 
ICE-­‐US 
Coffee 
04/05/11 
$294.50 
cts/lb 
High: 
$308.90 
cts/lb
ANSWERS 
TO 
THE 
KEY 
QUESTIONS 
BRIEF 
SWOT 
ANALYSIS
Fairtrade 
stakeholders 
can 
have 
the 
guarantee 
that 
the 
cer9fica9on 
system 
do 
well 
the 
right 
things 
through 
ISO 
Guide 
65 
Cer9fica9on 
Cer1fica1on 
Procedure 
by 
which 
a 
third 
party 
gives 
wriXen 
assurance 
that 
a 
product, 
process 
or 
service 
conforms 
to 
specified 
requirements. 
Accredita9on 
Procedure 
by 
which 
an 
authorita9ve 
body 
gives 
formal 
recogni9on 
that 
a 
body 
or 
person 
is 
competent 
to 
carry 
out 
specific 
tasks. 
“The 
fact 
that 
ISO 
Guide 
65 
is 
an 
external 
common 
norm 
and 
not 
Fairtrade 
based 
is 
considered 
advantageous 
to 
prevent 
Fairtrade 
from 
being 
arbitrary. 
ISO 
65 
forces 
the 
system 
to 
be 
transparent 
and 
impar9al, 
and 
for 
decisions 
to 
be 
repeatable; 
and 
it 
requires 
definite 
descrip9on 
of 
the 
related 
measures. 
Internally 
implemen9ng 
ISO 
65 
pushes 
the 
Fairtrade 
movement 
to 
look 
into 
its 
defini9on 
in 
order 
to 
harmonize 
understanding 
and 
scope 
Fairtrade 
system”. 
“Commitment 
to 
ISO 
65 
also 
results 
from 
the 
fact 
that 
Fairtrade 
is 
beginning 
to 
expand 
beyond 
a 
niche 
market. 
Supermarket 
chains 
are 
now 
involved 
in 
trading 
Fairtrade 
labelled 
products. 
They 
expect 
Fairtrade 
to 
recognize 
and 
to 
fulfill 
well-­‐accepted 
norms. 
Important 
market 
players 
are 
asking 
for 
evidence 
that 
the 
Fairtrade 
system 
is 
reliable 
and 
robust. 
ISO 
65 
accredita9on 
provides 
evidence 
and 
is 
well 
know 
and 
accepted, 
specially 
by 
retailers.”. 
Source: 
Requirements 
for 
cer9fica9on 
bodies 
– 
situa9on 
and 
scope 
for 
harmonisa9on 
ITF, 
a 
joined 
ini9a9ve 
of 
IFOAM, 
FAO, 
UNCTAD
Strengths 
-­‐ Increasing 
consumer 
awareness 
of 
environmental 
and 
social 
issues. 
-­‐ Widespread 
acceptance 
towards 
market 
en99es 
with 
social 
responsibility 
appeal 
to 
the 
masses 
of 
consumers, 
with 
highly 
acceptance 
in 
supermarkets 
and 
specialized 
groceries. 
-­‐ Fairtrade 
coffee 
is 
well 
posi9oned 
and 
has 
not 
meet 
heavy 
consumer 
resistance 
in 
the 
high-­‐end 
channel. 
-­‐ Fairtrade 
cer9fica9on 
has 
proven 
with 
results 
and 
facts 
in 
a 
long 
term 
basis, 
the 
real 
benefits 
and 
opportuni9es 
for 
a 
bever 
livelihood 
that 
offer 
to 
coffee 
producers 
through 
global 
experience 
for 
a 
local 
impact, 
thanks 
to 
transparent 
and 
win-­‐win 
trading 
partnerships. 
-­‐ Fairtrade 
has 
the 
capacity 
to 
convey 
this 
coffee 
crisis 
in 
a 
lesson 
learned 
opportunity. 
Source: 
Oxfam, 
Interna9onal 
Commodity 
Research 
– 
Coffee 
& 
COSA 
Report
-­‐ 
Fairtrade 
producers 
must 
be 
struggling 
to 
fulfill 
contracts 
due 
to 
poor 
harvest, 
while 
others 
surely 
signed 
contracts 
early 
this 
year 
and 
then 
watched 
prices 
rise 
to 
unexpected 
peaks, 
provoking 
confusion 
and 
a 
lack 
of 
confidence 
in 
the 
performance 
and 
per1nence 
of 
Fairtrade 
coffee 
prices 
and 
standards, 
to 
respond 
efficiently 
and 
in 
a 
1mely 
manner 
to 
coffee 
price 
vola1lity. 
Also 
provoking 
in 
origin 
what 
I 
call 
the 
“toma 
y 
daca” 
effect 
(1t 
for 
tat). 
-­‐ 
Loss 
of 
value 
of 
organic 
cer1fica1on 
due 
to 
high 
prices. 
-­‐ 
This 
coffee 
market 
bull 
run 
caught 
many 
by 
surprise 
and 
pointed 
out 
speculators 
as 
the 
obvious 
scapegoat, 
but 
sta9s9cal 
surplus 
are 
not 
sufficient 
to 
refill 
depleted 
stocks. 
-­‐ 
Produc9on 
for 
the 
Asia 
& 
Oceania 
region 
have 
been 
downward, 
especially 
Indonesia 
where 
the 
impact 
of 
La 
Niña* 
phenomenon 
has 
been 
more 
severe 
than 
expected. 
This 
phenomenon 
tradi9onally 
arrived 
every 
5 
or 
6 
years, 
but 
is 
gaining 
frequency 
and 
intensity 
because 
of 
climate 
change. 
-­‐ 
La 
Niña 
weather 
paverns 
will 
also 
reduce 
produc9on 
in 
East 
Africa. 
-­‐ 
Disappoin9ng 
2009/10 
crops 
in 
Colombia 
and 
Central 
America 
-­‐ 
The 
Brazil 
produc9on 
correspond 
to 
an 
off-­‐year 
season 
in 
the 
biennial 
cycle 
for 
Arabica 
produc9on, 
but 
is 
important 
to 
men9on 
that 
even 
a 
record 
crop 
will 
not 
be 
sufficient 
to 
cover 
domes9c 
consump9on 
plus 
export 
demand, 
so 
that 
already 
run-­‐down 
stocks 
will 
be 
depleted 
further, 
so 
there 
is 
even 
the 
possibility 
of 
a 
forced 
reduc9on 
in 
exports 
next 
season. 
-­‐ 
Producer 
stocks 
are 
at 
a 
dangerously 
low 
level 
as 
the 
market 
is 
heading 
towards 
the 
Brazilian 
off-­‐year 
crop 
2011/12, 
and 
the 
situa9on 
in 
impor9ng 
countries 
is 
also 
strained 
as 
there 
has 
been 
a 
steady 
decline 
of 
(registered) 
stocks 
-­‐ 
It 
is 
possible 
to 
assume 
that 
a 
global 
deficit 
will 
return 
in 
2011/12 
when 
Brazil 
will 
be 
faced 
with 
its 
biennial 
downswing 
in 
output 
while 
global 
consump9on 
will 
con9nue 
to 
rise. 
This 
means 
that 
the 
coffee 
market’s 
apparent 
failure 
of 
a 
significant 
stock 
build-­‐up 
this 
season 
could 
mean 
that 
it 
is 
headed 
for 
high 
prices 
for 
years 
to 
come. 
-­‐ 
Cameroon’s 
coffee 
farmers 
have 
diverted 
land 
to 
food 
crop 
produc9on, 
even 
do 
the 
government 
has 
set 
up 
a 
scheme 
to 
li_ 
the 
Arabica 
produc9on. 
-­‐ 
Coffee 
produc9on 
in 
North 
& 
Central 
America 
in 
2010/11 
is 
seen 
at 
17.5 
mln 
60 
kg 
bags. 
-­‐ 
High 
coffee 
prices 
lead 
to 
the_ 
and 
murder 
with 
severe 
problems 
with 
hijacking 
of 
coffee-­‐ 
transpor9ng 
trucks, 
provoking 
extra 
security 
costs. 
-­‐ 
The 
forecast 
for 
Mexico 
was 
cut 
to 
4.1 
mln 
bags 
from 
nearly 
4.3 
mln 
previously. 
Mexico’s 
government 
es9mates 
5% 
higher 
crop 
(!) 
while 
Mexican 
coffee 
producers 
associa9on 
(Amecafe) 
doest 
not 
see 
the 
crop 
significantly 
below 
from 
last 
year’s 
ouvurn. 
-­‐ 
Unseasonable 
rains 
and 
cold 
weather 
in 
Mexico 
have 
resulted 
in 
a 
crop 
that 
is 
ripening 
at 
an 
uneven 
pace, 
exacerbated 
with 
a 
shortage 
of 
labour 
at 
farms 
where 
workers, 
paid 
by 
the 
bucket, 
have 
not 
found 
enough 
coffee 
cherries 
to 
pick 
to 
make 
it 
worth 
their 
9me. 
-­‐ 
Colombia’s 
coffee 
produc9on, 
due 
to 
unfavourable 
weather 
condi9ons 
during 
flowering, 
has 
cur 
marginally 
the 
forecast 
to 
9.5 
mil 
bags, 
which 
would 
s9ll 
be 
up 
sizeable 
from 
dismal 
8.1 
mln 
produced 
in 
2009/10. 
-­‐ 
Peru’s 
2010/11 
crop 
is 
raised 
to 
nearly 
4.0 
mln 
bags. 
-­‐ 
Unusual 
and 
con9nuous 
raining 
during 
October 
and 
November 
affected 
harves9ng 
and 
processing 
of 
Arabica 
coffee 
in 
India, 
revising 
downwards 
its 
previous 
post-­‐blossom 
es9mate 
of 
a 
livle 
more 
than 
5.1 
mln 
bags. 
-­‐ 
Indonesia’s 
crop 
will 
be 
down 
to 
9.4 
mln 
bags 
due 
to 
excessive 
rains. 
-­‐ 
Local 
officials 
of 
Vietnam 
claim 
the 
crop 
to 
have 
fallen 
from 
2009/10 
levels 
at 
18.9 
mln 
bags 
from 
19.6 
mln 
bags 
as 
forecasted. 
* 
Note 
: 
“La 
Niña” 
is 
a 
cyclic 
meteorological 
phenomenon 
that 
results 
from 
low 
temperatures 
in 
the 
Pacific 
Ocean, 
and, 
“El 
Niño” 
is 
the 
increase 
of 
the 
ocean 
temperature 
and 
is 
reflected 
through 
dryness 
in 
the 
coffee 
regions. 
Weaknesses
Opportuni9es 
-­‐ 
Occasion 
for 
the 
Fairtrade 
movement 
to 
connect 
more 
meaningfully 
with 
coffee 
drinkers 
concerned 
with 
social 
and 
environmental 
issues. 
-­‐ 
Opportunity 
to 
develop 
a 
“Coffee 
Crisis 
CommiXee” 
(as 
the 
Product 
Advisory 
Council) 
to 
deepen 
through 
dialogue 
and 
insight 
into 
the 
roots 
of 
long 
las1ng 
solu1ons, 
in 
order 
to 
improve 
and 
design 
tailored 
standards, 
prices, 
premiums 
and 
policies, 
adding 
the 
possibility 
of 
crop 
pre-­‐financing. 
-­‐ 
Increase 
of 
global 
consump9on 
even 
throughout 
the 
world 
economic 
crisis 
because 
consumers 
in 
established 
markets 
usually 
perceive 
their 
daily 
intake 
of 
caffeine 
as 
a 
non-­‐changeable 
habit. 
-­‐ 
Nestle, 
S.A. 
is 
set 
to 
spend 
$70.3 
mio 
USCY 
on 
a 
new 
produc9on 
line 
to 
double 
output 
as 
its 
Nescafe 
Dolce 
Gusto 
site 
in 
Girona, 
Spain. 
The 
new 
line 
will 
double 
produc9on 
to 
more 
than 
2.5 
bln 
coffee 
capsules 
a 
year 
by 
2012 
for 
export 
to 
more 
than 
20 
European 
countries 
and 
overseas 
des9na9ons. 
(Trend) 
-­‐ 
The 
Nespresso 
brand 
expects 
con9nued 
double-­‐digit 
growth 
in 
2011, 
leading 
the 
“coffee 
capsule 
bavle” 
(Trend) 
-­‐ 
Starbucks 
Corp. 
has 
turn 
its 
non-­‐binding 
Memorandum 
of 
Understanding 
with 
Tata 
Coffee 
for 
sourcing 
and 
roas9ng 
premium 
coffee 
beans 
in 
India 
into 
a 
joint 
venture, 
in 
which 
will 
ini9ally 
hold 
26% 
stake, 
and 
the 
JV 
will 
open 
outlets 
in 
all 
major 
Indian 
ci9es 
and 
Starbucks 
will 
raise 
its 
stake 
in 
the 
new 
company 
to 
51% 
within 
a 
year. 
-­‐ 
Starbucks 
announced 
on 
April 
26 
its 
inten9on 
to 
increase 
from 
450 
to 
1,500 
the 
number 
of 
stores 
in 
China, 
and 
the 
expand 
of 
Via 
instant 
coffee 
aiming 
to 
get 
into 
more 
people’s 
homes 
by 
offering 
coffee 
through 
grocery 
stores 
and 
introducing 
simple-­‐cup 
brewing 
machines. 
-­‐ 
Colombia 
looks 
to 
be 
recovering 
from 
two 
years 
of 
disappoin9ng 
crops. 
-­‐ 
Coffee 
produc9on 
in 
Africa 
in 
2010/11 
is 
es9mated 
to 
rise 
to 
14.6 
mln 
bags, 
up 
from 
13.2 
mln 
the 
previous 
year, 
and 
Arabica 
output 
is 
seen 
up 
at 
7.8 
mln 
bags 
from 
6.9 
mln 
in 
2009/10 
due 
to 
a 
higher 
forecast 
for 
the 
con9nent’s 
top 
producer 
Ethiopia 
whose 
output 
is 
seen 
at 
5.1 
mln 
bags. 
-­‐ 
Peru’s 
2010/11 
crop 
is 
raised 
to 
nearly 
4.0 
mln 
bags. 
-­‐ 
Rodolfo 
Trampe 
Taubert, 
mexican 
coffee 
producer 
from 
Chiapas, 
actually 
Execu9ve 
Coordinator 
of 
the 
AMECAFE 
(Mexican 
Coffee 
Associa9on) 
is 
nominated 
for 
the 
post 
of 
Execu9ve 
Director 
(2011-­‐2016) 
of 
the 
ICO. 
The 
next 
stage 
will 
be 
presenta9ons 
to 
the 
Council 
in 
September 
2011. 
Mr. 
Trampe 
can 
increase 
support 
to 
coffee 
organiza9ons.
Coffee 
capsules 
bavle 
between 
Sara 
Lee, 
Kra_, 
Nespresso 
and 
United 
Coffee
Trends 
-­‐ 
Although 
crop 
year 
2010/11 
is 
s9ll 
under 
way 
in 
many 
expor9ng 
countries, 
and 
in 
countries 
like 
Brazil, 
Indonesia, 
Papua 
New 
Guinea 
and 
Peru 
has 
just 
begun, 
the 
available 
informa9on 
indicates 
a 
volume 
of 
approximately 
133 
mln 
bags, 
represen9ng 
an 
increase 
of 
the 
preceding 
crop 
year 
according 
to 
ICO 
numbers. 
-­‐ 
Tight 
market 
fundamentals 
will 
con9nue 
to 
support 
high 
price 
levels 
in 
comparison 
to 
the 
previous 
years. 
-­‐ 
Current 
prices 
are 
remunera9ve 
to 
growers 
and 
will 
help 
s9mulate 
produc9on 
growth 
in 
the 
future 
(future 
coffee 
low 
price 
cycle). 
-­‐ 
In 
the 
short 
term, 
growth 
will 
probably 
come 
from 
improved 
husbandry 
and 
greater 
use 
of 
fer9lizer. 
In 
the 
medium 
to 
long 
term 
coffee 
growers 
are 
likely 
to 
rejuvenate 
exis9ng 
planta9ons 
and, 
to 
a 
lesser 
extent, 
open 
new 
areas 
of 
produc9on. 
-­‐ 
Growers 
inves9ng 
in 
new 
plan9ng 
must 
bear 
in 
mind 
that 
current 
highs 
price 
levels 
will 
not 
persist 
indefinitely, 
although 
demand 
con9nues 
to 
grow 
at 
a 
fast 
rate 
and 
will 
lens 
support 
to 
the 
market. 
-­‐ 
The 
strong 
export 
performance 
in 
the 
first 
five 
months 
of 
coffee 
year 
2010/11 
is 
unlikely 
to 
be 
maintained 
in 
coming 
months, 
especially 
in 
light 
of 
reduced 
availability 
in 
Brazil. 
-­‐ 
World 
stocks 
con9nue 
to 
fall 
and 
the 
volume 
of 
opening 
stocks 
in 
crop 
year 
2010/11 
is 
around 
13 
mln 
bags, 
reflec9ng 
market 
9ghtness 
-­‐ 
Coffee 
consump9on 
is 
growing 
more 
rapidly 
in 
expor9ng 
countries, 
par9cularly 
in 
Brazil, 
Ethiopia 
and 
Vietnam, 
while 
consump9on 
in 
tradi9onal 
impor9ng 
markets 
is 
forecasted 
to 
grow 
at 
a 
lower 
rate, 
however, 
impor9ng 
countries 
like 
Canada 
and 
emerging 
markets 
have 
recorded 
increase 
in 
coffee 
consump9on 
in 
2010. 
-­‐ 
Supermarkets 
and 
other 
mul9ple 
store 
opera9ons, 
because 
of 
their 
increasing 
market 
dominance, 
have 
a 
very 
direct 
influence 
on 
the 
nature 
of 
coffee 
demand, 
even 
if 
they 
are 
rarely 
considered 
in 
most 
discussions 
about 
the 
problems 
of 
the 
coffee 
industry, 
they 
are 
one 
of 
the 
most 
influen9al 
stakeholders. 
-­‐ 
Strong 
compe99on 
between 
supermarket 
chains 
and 
among 
coffee 
shop 
chains. 
-­‐ 
Revolu9on 
in 
household 
brewing 
technology 
as 
reflected 
by 
booming 
sales 
of 
high 
tech 
household 
coffee 
machines 
in 
recent 
years. 
-­‐ 
Colombians 
are 
expected 
to 
drink 
about 
1.3 
mln 
bags 
of 
coffee 
this 
year 
thanks 
to 
a 
program 
by 
the 
Na9onal 
Federa9on 
of 
Colombian 
Coffee 
Producers 
(Fedecafe) 
launched 
last 
March. 
-­‐ 
Colombian 
differen9als 
droped 
to 
just 
over 
20 
c/lb 
in 
February 
2011 
compared 
to 
more 
than 
60 
c/lb 
in 
July 
2010. 
-­‐ 
The 
Mexican 
Associa9on 
for 
Coffee 
Produc9on 
(Amecafe) 
distributed 
10,000 
brochures 
in 
2010 
to 
medical 
associa9ons 
about 
coffee’s 
health 
benefits 
in 
an 
avempt 
to 
eradicate 
the 
idea 
that 
the 
drink 
is 
unhealthy. 
-­‐ 
About 
75% 
of 
the 
coffee 
consumed 
in 
Mexico 
is 
instant 
coffee, 
which 
has 
contributed 
to 
the 
idea 
that 
there 
is 
not 
anything 
special 
about 
Mexican 
coffee 
– 
a 
mindset 
that 
industry 
leaders 
say 
is 
finally 
beginning 
to 
change. 
-­‐ 
Nestle, 
S.A. 
is 
set 
to 
spend 
$70.3 
mio 
USCY 
on 
a 
new 
produc9on 
line 
to 
double 
output 
as 
its 
Nescafe 
Dolce 
Gusto 
site 
in 
Girona, 
Spain. 
The 
new 
line 
will 
double 
produc9on 
to 
more 
than 
2.5 
bln 
coffee 
capsules 
a 
year 
by 
2012 
for 
export 
to 
more 
than 
20 
European 
countries 
and 
overseas 
des9na9ons. 
-­‐ 
The 
Nespresso 
brand 
expects 
con9nued 
double-­‐digit 
growth 
in 
2011 
and 
is 
targe9ng 
coffee 
culture 
countries. 
-­‐ 
Starbucks 
Corp. 
raised 
the 
price 
of 
its 
packaged 
coffee 
sold 
at 
US 
grocery 
stores 
by 
nearly 
12%. 
-­‐ 
A_er 
a 
disastrous 
earthquake 
and 
tsunami 
hit 
Japan 
on 
March 
11, 
the 
effects 
on 
coffee 
imports 
and 
domes9c 
price 
levels 
are 
seen 
limited. 
Most 
coffee 
imports 
are 
handled 
at 
ports 
in 
Yokohama, 
Kobe 
and 
Nagoya, 
which 
were 
untroubled 
by 
the 
devasta9ng 
events.
➜ 
RESPONSES 
Are 
we 
having 
the 
posi1ve 
impact 
we 
intend? 
Yes, 
we 
s1ll 
do. 
But 
we 
have 
to 
defend 
Fairtrade 
principles 
and 
act 
and 
re-­‐act 
fast 
and 
precisely 
according 
to 
market 
condi1ons. 
First 
listening 
carefully 
to 
all 
stakeholders 
to 
take 
into 
account 
all 
the 
factors 
and 
condi1ons 
of 
the 
coffee 
business 
reality, 
and 
then, 
gather 
them 
into 
a 
commitment 
to 
co-­‐discover 
solu1ons 
together, 
providing 
tools 
and 
all 
exper1se 
possible 
to 
achieve 
a 
common 
vision. 
Partnership 
Partnering
➜ 
RESPONSES 
In 
this 
new 
market 
scenarii, 
how 
do 
we 
actually 
deliver 
to 
all 
stakeholders 
the 
promise 
of 
Fairtrade 
coffee? 
As 
far 
as 
I 
understand 
through 
the 
available 
informa1on 
in 
internet, 
the 
Fairtrade 
Coffee 
Ac9ons 
announced 
the 
mee1ng 
of 
a 
Product 
Advisory 
Council 
to 
respond 
to 
the 
high 
coffee 
price 
crisis. 
So 
I 
suppose 
that 
as 
a 
result 
of 
this 
mee1ng, 
all 
the 
knowledge, 
experience, 
and 
open 
discussion 
of 
the 
people 
involved 
as 
united 
minds, 
has 
mapping 
opportunity 
and 
give 
visible 
results 
that 
now 
need 
to 
be 
implemented 
to 
be 
opera1ve 
to 
succeed.
➜ 
RESPONSES 
Given 
the 
current 
global 
context, 
what 
are 
the 
key 
issues 
and 
the 
right 
coffee 
price 
policy 
we 
should 
be 
addressing 
now? 
I 
think 
that 
the 
right 
price 
is 
always 
the 
one 
that 
results 
of 
a 
win-­‐ 
win 
transac1on. 
Coffee, 
traded 
as 
a 
commodity, 
tries 
to 
minimize 
risks 
and 
maximize 
opportunity 
but 
due 
to 
supply/demand 
condi1ons 
and 
signed 
future 
contracts, 
producers 
have 
to 
face 
a 
buy-­‐high/sell-­‐low 
scenarii, 
struggling 
locally 
with 
their 
compe1tors 
to 
fulfil 
and 
cover 
physical 
coffee 
needs. 
This 
situa1on 
jeopardize 
the 
organiza1on 
because 
for 
the 
small 
scale 
farmer, 
is 
much 
more 
profitable 
to 
sell 
his 
coffee 
to 
the 
local 
middle-­‐man 
(coyote) 
than 
to 
the 
producers 
organiza1on. 
At 
this 
point, 
pre-­‐financing 
is 
vital 
to 
assure 
coffee 
delivery 
from 
the 
producer 
to 
the 
organiza1on. 
Also 
is 
the 
moment 
when 
“promises 
made-­‐promises 
kept” 
come 
true.
➜ 
RESPONSES 
Are 
our 
solu1ons 
oriented 
towards 
the 
problems 
of 
15 
years 
ago, 
versus 
problems 
of 
today, 
or 
of 
the 
future? 
Every 
coffee 
crop 
is 
different, 
and 
we 
grow 
up 
through 
experience 
and 
lesson 
learned 
situa1ons. 
This 
bull 
run 
in 
coffee 
prices 
is 
an 
unique 
opportunity 
to 
improve 
the 
Fairtrade 
standards 
and 
pricing, 
challenging 
everyone 
involved 
to 
beXer 
understand 
the 
nature 
of 
producing, 
trading, 
roas1ng 
and 
selling 
Fairtrade 
coffee. 
Also, 
measures 
taken 
will 
prevail 
and 
provide 
new 
tools, 
knowledge 
and 
hidden 
talents 
to 
redevelop 
standards 
and 
procedures 
to 
enable 
coffee 
growers 
groups 
to 
beXer 
interact 
and 
manage 
risk 
facing 
vola1lity, 
helping 
to 
provide 
more 
and 
beXer 
customized 
services 
to 
their 
members.
➜ 
RESPONSES 
What 
would 
the 
right 
approach 
look 
like? 
I 
understand 
that 
the 
first 
necessary 
measures 
have 
been 
made 
increasing 
the 
Minimum 
Price 
and 
the 
Organic 
Price 
Differen9al. 
This 
ac1on 
might 
mi1gate 
the 
pain 
but 
of 
course, 
does 
not 
solve 
the 
situa1on. 
I 
think 
that 
now 
the 
next 
step 
is 
a 
pedagogical 
effort 
to 
co-­‐create 
and 
co-­‐find 
solu1ons 
with 
dialogue 
and 
comprehension, 
with 
a 
high 
perspec1ve 
and 
long 
term 
vision, 
on 
behalf 
of 
the 
Fairtrade 
movement. 
Roundtables, 
strategic 
thinking 
and 
planning, 
and 
redefining 
a 
“build 
trust” 
program 
within 
and 
outside 
the 
organiza1on, 
must 
be 
launched 
to 
engage 
key 
stakeholders, 
sa1sfy 
customers 
at 
all 
levels, 
nourish 
coffee 
communi1es 
needs 
and 
demands, 
to 
finally 
deliver 
sustainable 
and 
profitable 
growth.
➜ 
RESPONSES 
What 
ac1ons 
should 
be 
implemented 
to 
meet 
accelerated 
growth 
with 
integrity? 
The 
Ac1on 
Plan 
to 
find 
solu1ons/ac1ons 
according 
to 
my 
experience 
is: 
• Intense 
dialogue 
between 
stakeholders 
to 
determine 
all 
factors, 
constraints 
and 
“get 
out 
of 
this” 
opportuni1es, 
along 
with 
in-­‐field 
workshops 
and 
gatherings 
with 
decision 
takers. 
• Promote 
and 
if 
possible, 
ensure 
Pre-­‐financing 
(micro-­‐credit) 
to 
small-­‐scale 
farmers 
to 
avoid 
or 
minimize 
high 
price 
impact. 
• Dual 
cer1fica1on 
acceptance 
along 
with 
pre-­‐cer1fica1on 
cost 
loans 
according 
to 
grower’s 
condi1on 
and 
historical. 
• Accentuate 
the 
capacity, 
func1on 
and 
performance 
of 
the 
Quality 
Control 
System 
within 
the 
coffee 
growers 
group.
CONCLUSION 
➜ Only 
a 
“insight-­‐outsight” 
approach 
will 
solve 
the 
puzzle. 
The 
historical 
posi1ve 
results 
of 
the 
Fairtrade 
Labelling 
Organiza1ons, 
since 
the 
founda1on 
of 
the 
Fairtrade 
movement 
in 
the 
beau1ful 
coffee 
region 
of 
Oaxaca, 
has 
proven 
from 
ground-­‐up, 
that 
no 
maXer 
where 
you 
look, 
you’ll 
see 
an 
opportunity 
to 
nourish 
an 
idea 
to 
provide 
hope 
and 
act 
for 
a 
beXer 
world, 
and 
finally, 
share 
passion, 
values 
and 
purpose 
towards 
coffee 
people, 
and 
this 
can 
be 
done 
again.
Photo 
credits 
: 
-­‐ 
Alicia 
Ahumada, 
David 
Maawad, 
Patricia 
Mar{n, 
Antonio 
Turok, 
(Mexican 
Orgánic 
Coffee, 
Cepco, 
Uciri, 
Unión 
Majomut, 
Edición 
FONAES, 
SEDESOL) 
-­‐ 
Internet: 
Michael 
Bryant 
and 
NYT 
photo. 
-­‐ 
Personal 
photos, 
Stéphanie 
de 
Malherbe 
pain9ng 
“Tomando 
café”, 
ESAG 
infinite 
cup 
affiche 
“Café 
Philo 
Paris”. 
Bibliography 
& 
Sources 
: 
-­‐ 
Requirements 
for 
cer9fica9on 
bodies 
(Dra_ 
document) 
– 
situa9on 
and 
scope 
for 
harmonisa9on 
ITF/Interna9onal 
Task 
Force, 
a 
joined 
ini9a9ve 
from: 
IFOAM, 
FAO, 
UNCTAD 
-­‐ 
Seeking 
Sustainability, 
COSA 
(Commivee 
on 
Sustainability 
Assessment) 
Preliminary 
Analysis 
of 
Sustainability 
Ini9a9ves 
in 
the 
Coffee 
Sector 
– 
Daniele 
Giovannucci 
and 
Jason 
Povs, 
2008 
-­‐ 
World 
Coffee 
Balance, 
Volume 
25, 
Issue 
19, 
March 
2011 
report 
by 
F.O. 
Licht 
-­‐ 
Interna9onal 
Coffee 
Report, 
F.O. 
Lochts 
Vol.25 
Nº21, 
April 
5, 
2011 
-­‐ 
LMC 
Int. 
Report 
March 
2011 
-­‐ 
The 
Outlook 
for 
the 
World 
Coffee 
Market 
2010-­‐2019, 
106th 
Session 
of 
the 
ICO, 
28-­‐31 
March 
2011 
-­‐ 
ICO 
Monthly 
Reports 
2011 
& 
Execu9ve 
Director 
Levers 
-­‐ 
The 
market 
for 
organic 
and 
Fair-­‐Trade 
Coffee, 
Study 
prepared 
in 
the 
framework 
of 
FAO 
project, 
Ellen 
Pay, 
2009 
-­‐ 
Oxfam: 
Interna9onal 
Commodity 
Research 
– 
Coffee, 
The 
Coffee 
Market, 
a 
Background 
studio 
by 
Oliver 
Brown, 
Celine 
Charveriat 
and 
Dominic 
Eagleton 
-­‐ 
Futuresource.com 
(graphics) 
-­‐ 
The 
World 
Bank 
-­‐ 
Coffee 
Markets, 
New 
Paradigms 
in 
Global 
Supply 
and 
Demand, 
by 
Bryan 
Lewin, 
Daniele 
Giovannucci 
and 
Panos 
Varangis 
-­‐ 
Complete 
Coffee 
Coverage 
(April 
2011), 
Coffee 
Publica9ons, 
Inc.
Thank 
you 
for 
your 
1me 
and 
aXen1on!

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Fairtrade coffee swot analysis

  • 1. SWOT Analysis Fair Trade = Collabora9on at the heart of a true trading partnership, sharing and partnering values, ideas, risks, rewards, passion and purpose. EK – 05/05/11 Fairtrade Coffee
  • 2. Star9ng from the beginning…
  • 3. What is coffee for me?
  • 4. For me, coffee is about people…
  • 6. …people that handle and trade coffee,
  • 7. …and people that consume and loves coffee!
  • 8. ➜ KEY QUESTIONS Are we having the posi1ve impact we intend? ➜ In this new market scenarii, how do we actually deliver to all stakeholders the promise of Fairtrade coffee? ➜ Given the current global context, what are the key issues and the right coffee price policy we should be addressing now? ➜ Are our solu1ons oriented towards the problems of 15 years ago, versus problems of today, or of the future? ➜ What would the right approach look like? ➜ What ac1ons should be implemented to meet accelerated growth with integrity?
  • 9. Coffee Background & Market Fundamentals
  • 10. “Coffee price vola9lity is not a recent phenomenon. Because coffee yields are vulnerable to temperature or precipita9on changes as well as disease, the volume of produc9on can vary widely from one year to the other, which causes prices to spike. The vulnerability is enhanced by the rela9vely high degree of dependence the world coffee supply has on Brazil. Vola9lity is also the result of the ‘natural coffee cycle.’ When prices increase, farmers are encouraged to use more inputs and expand plan9ng to take advantage of higher prices. This addi9onal produc9on contributes to depressed prices as supply expands. When prices decline, farmers stop using inputs to reduce produc9on costs, which reduces yields and contributes to price increases. This is exacerbated by the lag between planta9on and harvest, which varies between 18 and 24 months. The yield of the coffee tree peaks a_er 5 to 7 years. While the investment response to price change is very quick, the output response to investment is slow. As a result, the extra supply might arrive on the market when prices are on the decline, magnifying the downturn in the coffee cycle.” Oxfam: Interna9onal Commodity Research – Coffee, The Coffee Market, a background studio
  • 11. 20 years of coffee prices -­‐ supply/demand cycle The regular coffee market prices scenarii: Normal coffee prices scenarii for cer0fied coffee farms
  • 12. Actual coffee market scenarii – 1st half April ☝ Arabica The actual facts: Coffee costs 90% more today than it did a year ago… ☂ Robusta Climate change is having an impact on areas that produce coffee… ✄ Supply is strained… ☹ Social problems persist and paradoxically, some farmers con9nue to grapple with basic issues such as food, health, educa9on, etc.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Market vola9lity / bull run The regular coffee market prices scenarii: World coffee prices reached 14-­‐year highs in the first quarter of 2011. The March monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price rose by 3.8%, from 216.03 US cents/lb in February to 224.33 US cents/lb. This monthly average un9l 5 April 2011, is the highest recorded since June 1977. Source : ICO Monthly Report
  • 16. Consump9on Produc9on Stocks Source: FAO Outlook for the World Coffee Market 2010-­‐2019, 106th Session of the ICO, 28-­‐31 March 2011
  • 17. ➡ Highlight Producer stocks are at a dangerously low level as the market is heading towards the Brazilian off-­‐year crop 2011/12, and the situa9on in impor9ng countries is also strained as there has been a steady decline of (registered) stocks. Total ICE cer9fied Arabica stocks, including those in the three European ports of Antwerp, Hamburg and Bremen, at the end of January 2011 were 1.6 mln bags, down from 2.9 mln last year and as much as 4.3 mln two years ago. Robusta stocks in LIFFEE-­‐nominated warehouses fell to 3.9 mln bags by the end of January 2011 from 5.0 mln at the same 9me a year ago.
  • 18. ➡ New York ICE futures prices have averaged 273 c/lb in March ➡ LIFFE prices have averaged $2,492 per tonne in March so far ➡ FORECAST – as for 1st quarter 2011 Global output is expected to reach 129.0 mn bags in 2010/11 with the harvest of an off-­‐year Brazilian crop of 47 mln bags ➡ Global consump1on is forecasted at 135.6 mln bags ➡ This means a deficit of 6.6 mln bags for arabica and robusta ➡ Es9mates for 2011/12 suggest that the 9ghtness in the overall market should ease with Brazilian output cyclically higher ➡ Colombian produc9on could recover to almost 10 mln bags as new trees from the replan9ng program of last few years start to come into produc9on ICE-­‐US Coffee 04/05/11 $294.50 cts/lb High: $308.90 cts/lb
  • 19. ANSWERS TO THE KEY QUESTIONS BRIEF SWOT ANALYSIS
  • 20. Fairtrade stakeholders can have the guarantee that the cer9fica9on system do well the right things through ISO Guide 65 Cer9fica9on Cer1fica1on Procedure by which a third party gives wriXen assurance that a product, process or service conforms to specified requirements. Accredita9on Procedure by which an authorita9ve body gives formal recogni9on that a body or person is competent to carry out specific tasks. “The fact that ISO Guide 65 is an external common norm and not Fairtrade based is considered advantageous to prevent Fairtrade from being arbitrary. ISO 65 forces the system to be transparent and impar9al, and for decisions to be repeatable; and it requires definite descrip9on of the related measures. Internally implemen9ng ISO 65 pushes the Fairtrade movement to look into its defini9on in order to harmonize understanding and scope Fairtrade system”. “Commitment to ISO 65 also results from the fact that Fairtrade is beginning to expand beyond a niche market. Supermarket chains are now involved in trading Fairtrade labelled products. They expect Fairtrade to recognize and to fulfill well-­‐accepted norms. Important market players are asking for evidence that the Fairtrade system is reliable and robust. ISO 65 accredita9on provides evidence and is well know and accepted, specially by retailers.”. Source: Requirements for cer9fica9on bodies – situa9on and scope for harmonisa9on ITF, a joined ini9a9ve of IFOAM, FAO, UNCTAD
  • 21. Strengths -­‐ Increasing consumer awareness of environmental and social issues. -­‐ Widespread acceptance towards market en99es with social responsibility appeal to the masses of consumers, with highly acceptance in supermarkets and specialized groceries. -­‐ Fairtrade coffee is well posi9oned and has not meet heavy consumer resistance in the high-­‐end channel. -­‐ Fairtrade cer9fica9on has proven with results and facts in a long term basis, the real benefits and opportuni9es for a bever livelihood that offer to coffee producers through global experience for a local impact, thanks to transparent and win-­‐win trading partnerships. -­‐ Fairtrade has the capacity to convey this coffee crisis in a lesson learned opportunity. Source: Oxfam, Interna9onal Commodity Research – Coffee & COSA Report
  • 22. -­‐ Fairtrade producers must be struggling to fulfill contracts due to poor harvest, while others surely signed contracts early this year and then watched prices rise to unexpected peaks, provoking confusion and a lack of confidence in the performance and per1nence of Fairtrade coffee prices and standards, to respond efficiently and in a 1mely manner to coffee price vola1lity. Also provoking in origin what I call the “toma y daca” effect (1t for tat). -­‐ Loss of value of organic cer1fica1on due to high prices. -­‐ This coffee market bull run caught many by surprise and pointed out speculators as the obvious scapegoat, but sta9s9cal surplus are not sufficient to refill depleted stocks. -­‐ Produc9on for the Asia & Oceania region have been downward, especially Indonesia where the impact of La Niña* phenomenon has been more severe than expected. This phenomenon tradi9onally arrived every 5 or 6 years, but is gaining frequency and intensity because of climate change. -­‐ La Niña weather paverns will also reduce produc9on in East Africa. -­‐ Disappoin9ng 2009/10 crops in Colombia and Central America -­‐ The Brazil produc9on correspond to an off-­‐year season in the biennial cycle for Arabica produc9on, but is important to men9on that even a record crop will not be sufficient to cover domes9c consump9on plus export demand, so that already run-­‐down stocks will be depleted further, so there is even the possibility of a forced reduc9on in exports next season. -­‐ Producer stocks are at a dangerously low level as the market is heading towards the Brazilian off-­‐year crop 2011/12, and the situa9on in impor9ng countries is also strained as there has been a steady decline of (registered) stocks -­‐ It is possible to assume that a global deficit will return in 2011/12 when Brazil will be faced with its biennial downswing in output while global consump9on will con9nue to rise. This means that the coffee market’s apparent failure of a significant stock build-­‐up this season could mean that it is headed for high prices for years to come. -­‐ Cameroon’s coffee farmers have diverted land to food crop produc9on, even do the government has set up a scheme to li_ the Arabica produc9on. -­‐ Coffee produc9on in North & Central America in 2010/11 is seen at 17.5 mln 60 kg bags. -­‐ High coffee prices lead to the_ and murder with severe problems with hijacking of coffee-­‐ transpor9ng trucks, provoking extra security costs. -­‐ The forecast for Mexico was cut to 4.1 mln bags from nearly 4.3 mln previously. Mexico’s government es9mates 5% higher crop (!) while Mexican coffee producers associa9on (Amecafe) doest not see the crop significantly below from last year’s ouvurn. -­‐ Unseasonable rains and cold weather in Mexico have resulted in a crop that is ripening at an uneven pace, exacerbated with a shortage of labour at farms where workers, paid by the bucket, have not found enough coffee cherries to pick to make it worth their 9me. -­‐ Colombia’s coffee produc9on, due to unfavourable weather condi9ons during flowering, has cur marginally the forecast to 9.5 mil bags, which would s9ll be up sizeable from dismal 8.1 mln produced in 2009/10. -­‐ Peru’s 2010/11 crop is raised to nearly 4.0 mln bags. -­‐ Unusual and con9nuous raining during October and November affected harves9ng and processing of Arabica coffee in India, revising downwards its previous post-­‐blossom es9mate of a livle more than 5.1 mln bags. -­‐ Indonesia’s crop will be down to 9.4 mln bags due to excessive rains. -­‐ Local officials of Vietnam claim the crop to have fallen from 2009/10 levels at 18.9 mln bags from 19.6 mln bags as forecasted. * Note : “La Niña” is a cyclic meteorological phenomenon that results from low temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and, “El Niño” is the increase of the ocean temperature and is reflected through dryness in the coffee regions. Weaknesses
  • 23.
  • 24. Opportuni9es -­‐ Occasion for the Fairtrade movement to connect more meaningfully with coffee drinkers concerned with social and environmental issues. -­‐ Opportunity to develop a “Coffee Crisis CommiXee” (as the Product Advisory Council) to deepen through dialogue and insight into the roots of long las1ng solu1ons, in order to improve and design tailored standards, prices, premiums and policies, adding the possibility of crop pre-­‐financing. -­‐ Increase of global consump9on even throughout the world economic crisis because consumers in established markets usually perceive their daily intake of caffeine as a non-­‐changeable habit. -­‐ Nestle, S.A. is set to spend $70.3 mio USCY on a new produc9on line to double output as its Nescafe Dolce Gusto site in Girona, Spain. The new line will double produc9on to more than 2.5 bln coffee capsules a year by 2012 for export to more than 20 European countries and overseas des9na9ons. (Trend) -­‐ The Nespresso brand expects con9nued double-­‐digit growth in 2011, leading the “coffee capsule bavle” (Trend) -­‐ Starbucks Corp. has turn its non-­‐binding Memorandum of Understanding with Tata Coffee for sourcing and roas9ng premium coffee beans in India into a joint venture, in which will ini9ally hold 26% stake, and the JV will open outlets in all major Indian ci9es and Starbucks will raise its stake in the new company to 51% within a year. -­‐ Starbucks announced on April 26 its inten9on to increase from 450 to 1,500 the number of stores in China, and the expand of Via instant coffee aiming to get into more people’s homes by offering coffee through grocery stores and introducing simple-­‐cup brewing machines. -­‐ Colombia looks to be recovering from two years of disappoin9ng crops. -­‐ Coffee produc9on in Africa in 2010/11 is es9mated to rise to 14.6 mln bags, up from 13.2 mln the previous year, and Arabica output is seen up at 7.8 mln bags from 6.9 mln in 2009/10 due to a higher forecast for the con9nent’s top producer Ethiopia whose output is seen at 5.1 mln bags. -­‐ Peru’s 2010/11 crop is raised to nearly 4.0 mln bags. -­‐ Rodolfo Trampe Taubert, mexican coffee producer from Chiapas, actually Execu9ve Coordinator of the AMECAFE (Mexican Coffee Associa9on) is nominated for the post of Execu9ve Director (2011-­‐2016) of the ICO. The next stage will be presenta9ons to the Council in September 2011. Mr. Trampe can increase support to coffee organiza9ons.
  • 25. Coffee capsules bavle between Sara Lee, Kra_, Nespresso and United Coffee
  • 26. Trends -­‐ Although crop year 2010/11 is s9ll under way in many expor9ng countries, and in countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Peru has just begun, the available informa9on indicates a volume of approximately 133 mln bags, represen9ng an increase of the preceding crop year according to ICO numbers. -­‐ Tight market fundamentals will con9nue to support high price levels in comparison to the previous years. -­‐ Current prices are remunera9ve to growers and will help s9mulate produc9on growth in the future (future coffee low price cycle). -­‐ In the short term, growth will probably come from improved husbandry and greater use of fer9lizer. In the medium to long term coffee growers are likely to rejuvenate exis9ng planta9ons and, to a lesser extent, open new areas of produc9on. -­‐ Growers inves9ng in new plan9ng must bear in mind that current highs price levels will not persist indefinitely, although demand con9nues to grow at a fast rate and will lens support to the market. -­‐ The strong export performance in the first five months of coffee year 2010/11 is unlikely to be maintained in coming months, especially in light of reduced availability in Brazil. -­‐ World stocks con9nue to fall and the volume of opening stocks in crop year 2010/11 is around 13 mln bags, reflec9ng market 9ghtness -­‐ Coffee consump9on is growing more rapidly in expor9ng countries, par9cularly in Brazil, Ethiopia and Vietnam, while consump9on in tradi9onal impor9ng markets is forecasted to grow at a lower rate, however, impor9ng countries like Canada and emerging markets have recorded increase in coffee consump9on in 2010. -­‐ Supermarkets and other mul9ple store opera9ons, because of their increasing market dominance, have a very direct influence on the nature of coffee demand, even if they are rarely considered in most discussions about the problems of the coffee industry, they are one of the most influen9al stakeholders. -­‐ Strong compe99on between supermarket chains and among coffee shop chains. -­‐ Revolu9on in household brewing technology as reflected by booming sales of high tech household coffee machines in recent years. -­‐ Colombians are expected to drink about 1.3 mln bags of coffee this year thanks to a program by the Na9onal Federa9on of Colombian Coffee Producers (Fedecafe) launched last March. -­‐ Colombian differen9als droped to just over 20 c/lb in February 2011 compared to more than 60 c/lb in July 2010. -­‐ The Mexican Associa9on for Coffee Produc9on (Amecafe) distributed 10,000 brochures in 2010 to medical associa9ons about coffee’s health benefits in an avempt to eradicate the idea that the drink is unhealthy. -­‐ About 75% of the coffee consumed in Mexico is instant coffee, which has contributed to the idea that there is not anything special about Mexican coffee – a mindset that industry leaders say is finally beginning to change. -­‐ Nestle, S.A. is set to spend $70.3 mio USCY on a new produc9on line to double output as its Nescafe Dolce Gusto site in Girona, Spain. The new line will double produc9on to more than 2.5 bln coffee capsules a year by 2012 for export to more than 20 European countries and overseas des9na9ons. -­‐ The Nespresso brand expects con9nued double-­‐digit growth in 2011 and is targe9ng coffee culture countries. -­‐ Starbucks Corp. raised the price of its packaged coffee sold at US grocery stores by nearly 12%. -­‐ A_er a disastrous earthquake and tsunami hit Japan on March 11, the effects on coffee imports and domes9c price levels are seen limited. Most coffee imports are handled at ports in Yokohama, Kobe and Nagoya, which were untroubled by the devasta9ng events.
  • 27. ➜ RESPONSES Are we having the posi1ve impact we intend? Yes, we s1ll do. But we have to defend Fairtrade principles and act and re-­‐act fast and precisely according to market condi1ons. First listening carefully to all stakeholders to take into account all the factors and condi1ons of the coffee business reality, and then, gather them into a commitment to co-­‐discover solu1ons together, providing tools and all exper1se possible to achieve a common vision. Partnership Partnering
  • 28. ➜ RESPONSES In this new market scenarii, how do we actually deliver to all stakeholders the promise of Fairtrade coffee? As far as I understand through the available informa1on in internet, the Fairtrade Coffee Ac9ons announced the mee1ng of a Product Advisory Council to respond to the high coffee price crisis. So I suppose that as a result of this mee1ng, all the knowledge, experience, and open discussion of the people involved as united minds, has mapping opportunity and give visible results that now need to be implemented to be opera1ve to succeed.
  • 29. ➜ RESPONSES Given the current global context, what are the key issues and the right coffee price policy we should be addressing now? I think that the right price is always the one that results of a win-­‐ win transac1on. Coffee, traded as a commodity, tries to minimize risks and maximize opportunity but due to supply/demand condi1ons and signed future contracts, producers have to face a buy-­‐high/sell-­‐low scenarii, struggling locally with their compe1tors to fulfil and cover physical coffee needs. This situa1on jeopardize the organiza1on because for the small scale farmer, is much more profitable to sell his coffee to the local middle-­‐man (coyote) than to the producers organiza1on. At this point, pre-­‐financing is vital to assure coffee delivery from the producer to the organiza1on. Also is the moment when “promises made-­‐promises kept” come true.
  • 30. ➜ RESPONSES Are our solu1ons oriented towards the problems of 15 years ago, versus problems of today, or of the future? Every coffee crop is different, and we grow up through experience and lesson learned situa1ons. This bull run in coffee prices is an unique opportunity to improve the Fairtrade standards and pricing, challenging everyone involved to beXer understand the nature of producing, trading, roas1ng and selling Fairtrade coffee. Also, measures taken will prevail and provide new tools, knowledge and hidden talents to redevelop standards and procedures to enable coffee growers groups to beXer interact and manage risk facing vola1lity, helping to provide more and beXer customized services to their members.
  • 31. ➜ RESPONSES What would the right approach look like? I understand that the first necessary measures have been made increasing the Minimum Price and the Organic Price Differen9al. This ac1on might mi1gate the pain but of course, does not solve the situa1on. I think that now the next step is a pedagogical effort to co-­‐create and co-­‐find solu1ons with dialogue and comprehension, with a high perspec1ve and long term vision, on behalf of the Fairtrade movement. Roundtables, strategic thinking and planning, and redefining a “build trust” program within and outside the organiza1on, must be launched to engage key stakeholders, sa1sfy customers at all levels, nourish coffee communi1es needs and demands, to finally deliver sustainable and profitable growth.
  • 32. ➜ RESPONSES What ac1ons should be implemented to meet accelerated growth with integrity? The Ac1on Plan to find solu1ons/ac1ons according to my experience is: • Intense dialogue between stakeholders to determine all factors, constraints and “get out of this” opportuni1es, along with in-­‐field workshops and gatherings with decision takers. • Promote and if possible, ensure Pre-­‐financing (micro-­‐credit) to small-­‐scale farmers to avoid or minimize high price impact. • Dual cer1fica1on acceptance along with pre-­‐cer1fica1on cost loans according to grower’s condi1on and historical. • Accentuate the capacity, func1on and performance of the Quality Control System within the coffee growers group.
  • 33. CONCLUSION ➜ Only a “insight-­‐outsight” approach will solve the puzzle. The historical posi1ve results of the Fairtrade Labelling Organiza1ons, since the founda1on of the Fairtrade movement in the beau1ful coffee region of Oaxaca, has proven from ground-­‐up, that no maXer where you look, you’ll see an opportunity to nourish an idea to provide hope and act for a beXer world, and finally, share passion, values and purpose towards coffee people, and this can be done again.
  • 34. Photo credits : -­‐ Alicia Ahumada, David Maawad, Patricia Mar{n, Antonio Turok, (Mexican Orgánic Coffee, Cepco, Uciri, Unión Majomut, Edición FONAES, SEDESOL) -­‐ Internet: Michael Bryant and NYT photo. -­‐ Personal photos, Stéphanie de Malherbe pain9ng “Tomando café”, ESAG infinite cup affiche “Café Philo Paris”. Bibliography & Sources : -­‐ Requirements for cer9fica9on bodies (Dra_ document) – situa9on and scope for harmonisa9on ITF/Interna9onal Task Force, a joined ini9a9ve from: IFOAM, FAO, UNCTAD -­‐ Seeking Sustainability, COSA (Commivee on Sustainability Assessment) Preliminary Analysis of Sustainability Ini9a9ves in the Coffee Sector – Daniele Giovannucci and Jason Povs, 2008 -­‐ World Coffee Balance, Volume 25, Issue 19, March 2011 report by F.O. Licht -­‐ Interna9onal Coffee Report, F.O. Lochts Vol.25 Nº21, April 5, 2011 -­‐ LMC Int. Report March 2011 -­‐ The Outlook for the World Coffee Market 2010-­‐2019, 106th Session of the ICO, 28-­‐31 March 2011 -­‐ ICO Monthly Reports 2011 & Execu9ve Director Levers -­‐ The market for organic and Fair-­‐Trade Coffee, Study prepared in the framework of FAO project, Ellen Pay, 2009 -­‐ Oxfam: Interna9onal Commodity Research – Coffee, The Coffee Market, a Background studio by Oliver Brown, Celine Charveriat and Dominic Eagleton -­‐ Futuresource.com (graphics) -­‐ The World Bank -­‐ Coffee Markets, New Paradigms in Global Supply and Demand, by Bryan Lewin, Daniele Giovannucci and Panos Varangis -­‐ Complete Coffee Coverage (April 2011), Coffee Publica9ons, Inc.
  • 35. Thank you for your 1me and aXen1on!