Slides from my presentation on why we make bad forecasts, why the future is a social activity, and what we can do close the gap between what we think we know and what we actually know. For more check out https://www.competitivefutures.com/data-lab and http://www.ericgarland.co/keynote-speaker-executive-educator/

1. TALES FROM THE UNEXPECTED FUTURE
eric garland

2. “The future will be better tomorrow.”
- Dan Quayle
FormerVice President of the United States

3. The world isn’t a mess from what we don’t know,
but from what we know for certain that just ain’t so.
-Mark Twain

4. There are things we know that we know...these are known knowns.
There are the things we know that we don’t know...these are known unknowns.
But then there are the things we don’t know that we don’t know
...these are unknown unknowns.
- Donald Rumsfeld
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense

5. We know where the weapons of mass destruction are.
They are in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad, east, west, south, and north somewhat.
- Donald Rumsfeld
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense

6. STOCHASM:
The difference between what you
think you know, and what you
actually know.

7. I think about the future a lot
Do you see
what I see?
Housing bubble?
What?

8. Three big questions
• What is our understanding of future risk
and reward?
• When and why do we fail?
• What can we do today to improve our
perception?

9. for today
• A children’s treasury of bad forecasts
• Epic fails: Market research
• Epic fail: Risk estimation
• How to improve our foresight
(despite the risk)

10. BAD FORECASTS

11. “What, sir? You would make a ship sail against the wind and
currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks?
I pray you excuse me. I have no time to listen to such nonsense.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, upon hearing of the latter's plans for
a steam-powered engine.

12. "It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of
communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

13. “Remote shopping will flop.”
-- Time Magazine, 1966

14. "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." --
Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962

15. “By the end of the century, we will live in a paperless society”
Roger Smith, CEO of General Motors, 1986

16. “This technology will lead to ubiquitous education and world peace!
A whole bunch of people

17. things we do to mess up forecasts
• Overestimate technological advance
• Underestimate technological advance
• Right forecast, wrong timescale
• Failure to comprehend social impact
• Miss secondary and tertiary effects
• Ignore intransigent human nature
• Discount wildcard events
• Missed assumptions about actor
behavior
• Emotional attachment to the outcome

18. WE reject the NEW, the important, the disruptive
and place it in the category of
“ridiculous”

19. Short list of ridiculous things
• Women comfortable in the working world
• A computer that fits in a single room
• People being able to use computers at work
without “training.”
• The Japanese as serious industrial competitors
• The Koreans as serious industrial competitors
• The Chinese as serious industrial competitors

20. ALMOST EVERYTHING IMPORTANT
STARTS OUT AS A FUTURE SO RIDICULOUS
You look dumb talking about it.

21. GREAT MOMENTS in EPIC FAIL:
MARKET RESEARCH division

22. BETTY CROCKER

23. DUNCAN HINES

24. GUINNESS STOUT IN AFRICA

25. GREAT MOMENTS in EPIC FAIL:
risk analysis division

26. The mortgage market

27. The mortgage market

28. Fukushima Nuclear power plant

29. WE use
mechanistic forecasting
for a complex world

30. improving our perception of
future risk and reward

31. the future is actually a group activity

32. We rely on authority to tell us which
futures are safe to discuss

33. What does an authority look like?

34. can you rely on this man’s forecasts?
• 2005:We’re not in a housing bubble
• 2007: Growth with limited risk
• 2008: Unemployment will go down
• 2009: It’s all good, dude!

35. take a systems approach
ACTOR
DECISIONS
THE HUMOR
OF THE GODS
STRUCTURAL
FACTORS

36. take a systems approach
Customers
Community
stakeholders
Disruptive
technologies
Today’s
Competitors
The environment
Economic
trends
Politics
Regulators and
gov’t agencies

37. Rigor VISION

38. What you can do starting today
• Start tracking economic, technological and social trends
outside of your industry
• Hold active discussions with stakeholders about what it all
means
• Ask how customer needs will evolve from macro-trends
• Tell your customers that you have their future in mind

39. @ericgarland
EricGarlandFuture
www.ericgarland.co
Thank you so much!
Merci Beaucoup!